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Twitter Q4 2015 Earnings Deck

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This deck is a sample from the Jackdaw Research Quarterly Decks Service, which includes similar deck for around a dozen companies and industry sectors. You can learn more and sign up for the service at: https://jackdawresearch.com/quarterly-company-decks/.

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Twitter Q4 2015 Earnings Deck

  1. Jan Dawson Chief Analyst (408) 744-6244 jan@jackdawresearch.com @jandawson TWITTER Q4 2015 EARNINGS SLIDES
  2. 2 • This deck is part of the Jackdaw Research Quarterly Company Decks subscription service, and is one of about a dozen similar decks produced each quarter on major consumer tech companies • The intention is to highlight trends and patterns which are not always obvious when merely looking at a spreadsheet • Accompanying analysis can often be found on our blog at www.beyonddevic.es • This is the base tier of a three-tier offering, with higher-priced services offering access to the underlying data and custom presentations and analysis • For more information, please visit:
 https://jackdawresearch.com/quarterly-company-decks/ INTRODUCTION JACKDAW RESEARCH QUARTERLY DECKS SERVICE
  3. 3 The charts in this deck are based on the company’s reported financial and operating metrics, together with other metrics derived from them by Jackdaw Research. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data presented, and the absence of errors, we make no guarantee of accuracy and accept no liability for decisions made based on the information contained in this document. Readers should always consult the source documents if making financial or other decisions regarding the company concerned. DISCLAIMER
  4. 4 • In Q1 2015, Twitter discontinued two metrics it had previously reported: Timeline views per monthly active user, and ad revenue per timeline view. • It also introduced three new metrics: • SMS Fast Followers: another flavor of monthly active users – those who used SMS to sign up and still only over use SMS to use Twitter. This is mostly an emerging market phenomenon, but will be captured in MAU going forward • Cost per engagement growth – similar to Google or Yahoo’s cost-per-click metrics, not an actual number, but a year on year and quarter on quarter growth number, intended to measure monetization • Ad engagements growth – again, similar to number of ads metrics reported by Google and Yahoo, and again only growth, not actuals, intended to measure engagement with ads over time, rather than user engagement with content NOTES TWITTER REPORTING CHANGES
  5. 5 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis REVENUES $ THOUSANDS 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
  6. 6 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis REVENUES BY SOURCE $ THOUSANDS 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Advertising revenue Data licensing & Other
  7. 7 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis AD REVENUE $ THOUSANDS 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
  8. 8 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis REVENUES BY SOURCE % OF TOTAL REVENUES 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Advertising as % of revenue Data licensing as % of revenue
  9. 9 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis DATA LICENSING AND OTHER AS A % OF REVENUE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
  10. 10 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis GEOGRAPHIC SPLITS INTERNATIONAL SHARE OF MAUS AND OF REVENUES 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 75% 75% 76% 76% 76% 78% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 79% 79% 79% 22% 27% 26% 27% 28% 33% 34% 34% 34% 36% 35% 35% International as % of revenues International as % of MAUs
  11. 11 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MOBILE AD REVENUE % OF TOTAL AD REVENUE FROM MOBILE DEVICES 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
  12. 12 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis AD REVENUE BY DEVICE ESTIMATED MOBILE VS. NON-MOBILE AD REVENUE, $ THOUSANDS 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Implied mobile ad revenue Implied non-mobile ad revenue
  13. 13 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MARGINS -300% -225% -150% -75% 0% 75% Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Operating margin Net margin
  14. 14 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis COST COMPONENTS EXCLUDING STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION, AS A % OF REVENUE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Cost of revenue R&D S&M G&A
  15. 15 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis OPERATING INCOME & MARGIN ADJUSTED FOR STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% -75,000 -50,000 -25,000 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Operating income adj for SBC Operating margin adj for SBC
  16. 16 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS INCLUDING “SMS FAST FOLLOWERS”, MILLIONS 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
  17. 17 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS MONETIZABLE MAUS, EXCLUDING “SMS FAST FOLLOWERS”, MILLIONS 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q1 2010Q3 2010Q1 2011Q3 2011Q1 2012Q3 2012Q1 2013Q3 2013Q1 2014Q3 2014Q1 2015Q3 2015
  18. 18 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS SPLIT BY TRADITIONAL MAUS AND SMS FAST FOLLOWERS 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 MAUs in millions SMS Fast Followers: Worldwide
  19. 19 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS BY GEOGRAPHY 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 US International
  20. -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 20 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS SEQUENTIAL GROWTH (EXCLUDING SMS FAST FOLLOWERS), THOUSANDS Adjustment for one-time loss due to change in third party integrations (iOS 8 impact)
  21. 21 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015
  22. -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015 22 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis COST PER (AD) ENGAGEMENT YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH “Average cost-per-engagement (CPE) fell 41% year over year, due primarily to the shift to auto-play video, which delivers more engagement at a much lower average CPE than click- to-play video ads. ” – Twitter earnings call, Q3 2015
  23. -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015 23 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis COST PER (AD) ENGAGEMENT QUARTER ON QUARTER GROWTH “Average cost-per-engagement (CPE) fell 41% year over year, due primarily to the shift to auto-play video, which delivers more engagement at a much lower average CPE than click- to-play video ads. ” – Twitter earnings call, Q3 2015
  24. 24 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis AD ENGAGEMENT YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015
  25. 25 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis AD ENGAGEMENT QUARTER ON QUARTER GROWTH -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015
  26. 26 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis AD REVENUE PER MAU, $ TWITTER VS. FACEBOOK 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Twitter ad revenue per MAU Facebook ad ARPU
  27. 27 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis REVENUE PER MAU, $ BY GEOGRAPHY 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Revenue per MAU: US Revenue per MAU: Intl
  28. 28 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis REVENUE PER MAU, US, $ TWITTER VS. FACEBOOK 0 5 10 15 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Twitter revenue per MAU: US Facebook ARPU: US & Canada
  29. 29 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis CAPITAL SPENDING $ THOUSANDS (LEFT AXIS), AND CAPITAL INTENSITY (CAPEX/REVENUES) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Capex Capital intensity
  30. Jan Dawson Chief Analyst (408) 744-6244 jan@jackdawresearch.com @jandawson FOR ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:

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