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US Cable, Satellite and 
Telco metrics for Q3 2014 
Jan Dawson 
Chief Analyst 
(408) 744-6244 
jan@jackdawresearch.com 
@j...
About this deck 
• This deck is provided as a public service, alongside 
other data which I make available freely 
• The d...
Company coverage 
The following companies and providers 
are included in the analysis in this deck: 
• AT&T 
• CableONE 
•...
Notes 
• This deck focuses on three groups of companies – 
cable, satellite and telco – and three services: video 
(TV), b...
Contents 
1. Subscriber bases – installed base trends for individual 
providers and groups of providers (cable, satellite,...
1. Subscriber bases
1. Subscriber bases 
Video subscribers 
• Four of the five largest companies by number of video 
subscribers are engaged i...
1. Subscriber bases 
Video subscribers 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink 
Charter Comcast Cons Comms DirecTV 
DISH M...
1. Subscriber bases 
Video subscribers 
Telco Cable 
Satellite Total 
9 
100,000 
75,000 
50,000 
25,000 
Source: Company ...
1. Subscriber bases 
Video subscribers 
Total video subscribers, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 ...
Video subscribers 
Total video subscribers, big players, 000s 
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 ...
1. Subscriber bases 
Broadband subscribers 
• The rankings among the set of players profiled remain 
very stable, with Com...
1. Subscriber bases 
Broadband subscribers 
Broadband subscribers, 000s 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink 
Charter C...
Broadband subscribers 
Broadband subscribers, 000s 
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014...
1. Subscriber bases 
Broadband subscribers 
Total broadband subscribers, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 ...
Broadband subscribers 
Total broadband subscribers, big players, 000s 
72,000 
71,000 
70,000 
69,000 
68,000 
67,000 
66,...
1. Subscriber bases 
Voice subscribers 
• Voice is clearly a declining market, with the telcos suffering 
the heaviest los...
1. Subscriber bases 
Voice subscribers 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast 
Cons Comms Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Ver...
1. Subscriber bases 
Voice subscribers 
Telco Cable 
Total 
19 
60,000 
45,000 
30,000 
15,000 
Source: Company reporting,...
1. Subscriber bases 
Voice subscribers 
Total voice subscribers, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 ...
1. Subscriber bases 
Voice subscribers 
Total voice subscribers, big players, 000s 
50,000 
49,500 
49,000 
48,500 
48,000...
2. Year on year growth
2. Year on year growth 
Video growth 
• There are three distinct sets of companies in the video market: 
• Those gaining s...
2. Year on year growth 
Video net adds 
Year on year video net adds, 000s 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink 
Charter...
Video net adds 
Year on year video net adds, 000s 
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 
25 
2,...
2. Year on year growth 
Video net adds 
Year on year video net adds, all players, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1...
2. Year on year growth 
Video net adds 
Year on year video net adds, 000s, big players 
Note: “big players” refers to the ...
2. Year on year growth 
Broadband growth 
• Comcast is significantly outgunning all the other 
players in adding broadband...
2. Year on year growth 
Broadband net adds 
Year on year broadband net adds, 000s 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink ...
2. Year on year growth 
Broadband net adds 
Year on year broadband net adds, 000s 
Telco Cable 
Satellite Total 
Q1 2012Q2...
2. Year on year growth 
Broadband net adds 
Year on year broadband net adds, all players, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4...
2. Year on year growth 
Broadband net adds 
Year on year broadband net adds, 000s, big players 
Note: “big players” refers...
2. Year on year growth 
Voice growth 
• AT&T’s losses have been slowing slightly, perhaps 
buoyed by its stronger broadban...
2. Year on year growth 
Voice net adds 
Year on year voice net adds, 000s 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast 
Con...
2. Year on year growth 
Voice net adds 
Year on year voice net adds, 000s 
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 20...
2. Year on year growth 
Voice net adds 
Year on year voice net adds, all players, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1...
2. Year on year growth 
Voice net adds 
Year on year voice net adds, 000s, big players 
0 
-500 
-1,000 
-1,500 
-2,000 
-...
3. Quarterly growth
3. Quarterly growth 
Video growth 
• Video growth is extremely cyclical, especially for the 
cable companies, with Q2 typi...
3. Quarterly growth 
Video net adds 
Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink 
Char...
3. Quarterly growth 
Video net adds 
Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s 
Telco Cable 
Satellite Total 
Q1 2012Q2 2012...
3. Quarterly growth 
Video net adds 
Quarter on quarter video net adds, all players, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013...
3. Quarterly growth 
Video net adds 
Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s, big players 
400 
300 
200 
100 
0 
-100 
-2...
3. Quarterly growth 
Broadband growth 
• Broadband is also highly cyclical, and again 
especially for the cable companies,...
3. Quarterly growth 
Broadband net adds 
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLi...
3. Quarterly growth 
Broadband net adds 
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s 
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q...
3. Quarterly growth 
Broadband net adds 
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, all players, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013...
3. Quarterly growth 
Broadband net adds 
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s, big players 
1,200 
1,000 
800 
600 ...
3. Quarterly growth 
Voice growth 
• There is some cyclicality in voice growth, too, 
though here it is the third quarter ...
3. Quarterly growth 
Voice net adds 
Quarter on quarter voice net adds, 000s 
AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast 
...
3. Quarterly growth 
Voice net adds 
Quarter on quarter voice net adds, 000s 
Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3...
3. Quarterly growth 
Voice net adds 
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, all players, 000s 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 ...
Voice net adds 
Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s, big players 
0 
-200 
-400 
-600 
-800 
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 20...
4. Revenues
Video revenues 
4. Revenues 
• Even though Comcast is the largest video provider by subs, DirecTV 
has the highest video r...
Video revenues 
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DirecTV DISH 
Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon 
56 
3. Revenues 
7,000 
6,...
Video revenues 
Telco Cable 
Total Satellite 
57 
4. Revenues 
30,000 
25,000 
20,000 
15,000 
10,000 
5,000 
Source: Comp...
4. Revenues 
Broadband revenues 
• When it comes to broadband, Comcast claims top 
spot in revenues as well as subs, with ...
4. Revenues 
Broadband revenues 
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DISH 
Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon 
59 
3,000 
2,500 ...
3. Revenues 
Broadband revenues 
Telco Cable 
Satellite Total 
60 
10,000 
9,000 
8,000 
7,000 
6,000 
5,000 
4,000 
3,000...
Voice revenues 
4. Revenues 
• Total voice revenues for this group are now well 
below $5 billion per quarter, and falling...
Voice revenues 
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast Mediacom 
Suddenlink TWC Verizon 
62 
3. Revenues 
3,000 
2,500 
2,000 
1...
Voice revenues 
Telco Cable Total 
63 
3. Revenues 
4. Revenues 
6,000 
5,000 
4,000 
3,000 
2,000 
1,000 
Source: Company...
Revenue per user 
4. Revenues 
• The data on the following slides is estimated and/or 
derived from reported revenue and s...
Revenue per user 
Video revenue per customer per month, $ 
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DirecTV DISH 
Mediacom Suddenl...
Revenue per user 
Broadband revenue per customer per month, $ 
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DISH 
Mediacom Suddenlink ...
Revenue per user 
Voice revenue per customer per month, $ 
AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast 
Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Veriz...
US Cable, Satellite and 
Telco metrics for Q3 2014 
Jan Dawson 
Chief Analyst 
(408) 744-6244 
jan@jackdawresearch.com 
@j...
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Cable, Satellite and Telco Trends for Q3 2014

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A review of major operational metrics for the largest public cable, satellite and wireline telco players in the US market, focused on three key consumer-facing services: TV, broadband and voice telephony. A review of total subscriber numbers and yearly and quarterly subscriber growth per provider, by the major categories (cable, satellite and telco) and overall. The deck provides insight into the growth rates in these three areas (yes, TV is still growing, though not as fast as broadband, while voice is shrinking steadily), and revenues derived from these services.

Published in: Technology

Cable, Satellite and Telco Trends for Q3 2014

  1. 1. US Cable, Satellite and Telco metrics for Q3 2014 Jan Dawson Chief Analyst (408) 744-6244 jan@jackdawresearch.com @jandawson
  2. 2. About this deck • This deck is provided as a public service, alongside other data which I make available freely • The data behind the deck is available in Excel or Numbers format as part of a paid service from Jackdaw Research • Feel free to embed and download the deck • Reporters may use individual slides from the deck – high resolution versions available upon request
  3. 3. Company coverage The following companies and providers are included in the analysis in this deck: • AT&T • CableONE • Cablevision • CenturyLink • Charter • Comcast • Consolidated Communications • DirecTV • DISH • Mediacom • Suddenlink • Time Warner Cable • Verizon • WideOpenWest These are the largest publicly traded companies across the markets covered. Together, they represent the vast majority of the market. The largest company not represented is Cox, which is privately held.
  4. 4. Notes • This deck focuses on three groups of companies – cable, satellite and telco – and three services: video (TV), broadband and voice • Not all the companies included report all metrics: E.g.: • CenturyLink doesn’t report voice subscribers • Most of the telcos don’t directly report revenue for each service, so where these are shown, they are estimates
  5. 5. Contents 1. Subscriber bases – installed base trends for individual providers and groups of providers (cable, satellite, telco) and for the total market 2. Year on year growth – year-on-year net adds for individual providers and groups of providers and the total market 3. Quarterly growth – q-on-q net adds on the same basis 4. Revenues – reported and estimated revenues for selected providers, from video, broadband and voice
  6. 6. 1. Subscriber bases
  7. 7. 1. Subscriber bases Video subscribers • Four of the five largest companies by number of video subscribers are engaged in proposed mergers: Comcast (1st) and Time Warner Cable (4th), and AT&T (5th) and DirecTV (2nd) • Cord-cutting doesn’t appear to be eroding subscriber numbers, which have remained remarkably stable year on year at 90 million • It is important to note that there are strong cyclical trends in video adds, as will be shown later
  8. 8. 1. Subscriber bases Video subscribers AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter Comcast Cons Comms DirecTV DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW 8 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Video subscribers, 000s 0 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
  9. 9. 1. Subscriber bases Video subscribers Telco Cable Satellite Total 9 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Video subscribers, 000s 0 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
  10. 10. 1. Subscriber bases Video subscribers Total video subscribers, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 10 90,600 90,500 90,400 90,300 90,200 90,100 90,000 89,900 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  11. 11. Video subscribers Total video subscribers, big players, 000s Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 11 86,100 86,000 85,900 85,800 85,700 85,600 85,500 85,400 85,300 85,200 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon 1. Subscriber bases
  12. 12. 1. Subscriber bases Broadband subscribers • The rankings among the set of players profiled remain very stable, with Comcast by far the largest and AT&T consistently in second place. • Unlike video, which is virtually stagnant, the broadband market continues to grow healthily, adding around 3 million subs in the past year • The set of players profiled here have around 75 million subscribers between them, so fewer than there are TV subscribers, though the gap continues to narrow.
  13. 13. 1. Subscriber bases Broadband subscribers Broadband subscribers, 000s AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter Comcast Cons Comms DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 13 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  14. 14. Broadband subscribers Broadband subscribers, 000s Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 14 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Telco Cable Satellite Total 1. Subscriber bases
  15. 15. 1. Subscriber bases Broadband subscribers Total broadband subscribers, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 15 75,000 74,000 73,000 72,000 71,000 70,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  16. 16. Broadband subscribers Total broadband subscribers, big players, 000s 72,000 71,000 70,000 69,000 68,000 67,000 66,000 65,000 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 16 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon 1. Subscriber bases
  17. 17. 1. Subscriber bases Voice subscribers • Voice is clearly a declining market, with the telcos suffering the heaviest losses, but the market as a whole also contracting rapidly • The cable companies continue to strip subscribers away from the telcos, almost exclusively as part of double- and triple-play bundles, but their gains don't offset telco losses • The set of players profiled here now has under 50 million subscribers, and voice is by far the least adopted of the three major services
  18. 18. 1. Subscriber bases Voice subscribers AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast Cons Comms Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW 18 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Voice subscribers, 000s 0 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
  19. 19. 1. Subscriber bases Voice subscribers Telco Cable Total 19 60,000 45,000 30,000 15,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Voice subscribers, 000s 0 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
  20. 20. 1. Subscriber bases Voice subscribers Total voice subscribers, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 20 51,000 50,000 49,000 48,000 47,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  21. 21. 1. Subscriber bases Voice subscribers Total voice subscribers, big players, 000s 50,000 49,500 49,000 48,500 48,000 47,500 47,000 46,500 46,000 Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 21 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  22. 22. 2. Year on year growth
  23. 23. 2. Year on year growth Video growth • There are three distinct sets of companies in the video market: • Those gaining subscribers: principally the telcos (AT&T, Verizon and on a much smaller scale CenturyLink), but also DirecTV, though its growth has slowed • Those losing subscribers, including four large cable companies: Comcast, Cablevision, Charter and Time Warner Cable • Those oscillating between the two, including DISH and some of the smaller regional players • The cable players as a whole are losing about 1 million subscribers per year, while the telcos are gaining around 1.5 million and the satellite providers are growing only slightly when combined • Year on year, the industry is adding a few hundred thousand subscribers, with the larger players making gains while the smaller ones are losing them
  24. 24. 2. Year on year growth Video net adds Year on year video net adds, 000s AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter Comcast Cons Comms DirecTV DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 24 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 -250 -500 -750 -1,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  25. 25. Video net adds Year on year video net adds, 000s Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 25 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Telco Cable Satellite Total 2. Year on year growth
  26. 26. 2. Year on year growth Video net adds Year on year video net adds, all players, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 26 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  27. 27. 2. Year on year growth Video net adds Year on year video net adds, 000s, big players Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 27 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  28. 28. 2. Year on year growth Broadband growth • Comcast is significantly outgunning all the other players in adding broadband subscribers, further stretching its lead over the rest of the market • AT&T has rebounded from a period of slower growth recently to re-take second place in annual growth • All other players are adding fewer than 200k per year • The players profiled here are adding around 2.5m/yr
  29. 29. 2. Year on year growth Broadband net adds Year on year broadband net adds, 000s AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter Comcast Cons Comms DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 29 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  30. 30. 2. Year on year growth Broadband net adds Year on year broadband net adds, 000s Telco Cable Satellite Total Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 30 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  31. 31. 2. Year on year growth Broadband net adds Year on year broadband net adds, all players, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 31 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  32. 32. 2. Year on year growth Broadband net adds Year on year broadband net adds, 000s, big players Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 32 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  33. 33. 2. Year on year growth Voice growth • AT&T’s losses have been slowing slightly, perhaps buoyed by its stronger broadband adds, while Verizon’s continue to be fairly steady at around 700k per year • Comcast and Charter are adding subscribers at a decent rate, while the other cable companies are adding them less consistently • The industry is losing 2-2.5 million subscribers per year, although the rate of shrinkage appears to be slowing
  34. 34. 2. Year on year growth Voice net adds Year on year voice net adds, 000s AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast Cons Comms Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 34 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  35. 35. 2. Year on year growth Voice net adds Year on year voice net adds, 000s Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 35 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 -3,500 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Telco Cable Total
  36. 36. 2. Year on year growth Voice net adds Year on year voice net adds, all players, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 36 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  37. 37. 2. Year on year growth Voice net adds Year on year voice net adds, 000s, big players 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 37 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  38. 38. 3. Quarterly growth
  39. 39. 3. Quarterly growth Video growth • Video growth is extremely cyclical, especially for the cable companies, with Q2 typically the worst quarter and Q1 the strongest • However, on balance, the industry has been adding subscribers in all but the second quarter, although this past quarter saw slight shrinkage among this group • The telcos are adding 300-400k subs per quarter, while the satellite providers see some cyclicality too
  40. 40. 3. Quarterly growth Video net adds Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter Comcast Cons Comms DirecTV DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 40 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  41. 41. 3. Quarterly growth Video net adds Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s Telco Cable Satellite Total Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 41 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  42. 42. 3. Quarterly growth Video net adds Quarter on quarter video net adds, all players, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 42 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  43. 43. 3. Quarterly growth Video net adds Quarter on quarter video net adds, 000s, big players 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 43 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  44. 44. 3. Quarterly growth Broadband growth • Broadband is also highly cyclical, and again especially for the cable companies, although the telcos see some of the same trends • However, this group adds subscribers every quarter, even during the slow second quarter • In the first quarter, this group adds over a million subscribers, while in the slower quarters it may be as few as two or three hundred thousand
  45. 45. 3. Quarterly growth Broadband net adds Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision CenturyLink Charter Comcast Cons Comms DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 45 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  46. 46. 3. Quarterly growth Broadband net adds Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 46 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Telco Cable Satellite Total
  47. 47. 3. Quarterly growth Broadband net adds Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, all players, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 47 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  48. 48. 3. Quarterly growth Broadband net adds Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s, big players 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 48 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  49. 49. 3. Quarterly growth Voice growth • There is some cyclicality in voice growth, too, though here it is the third quarter which typically sees the greatest declines • The cable companies in our sample add subscribers every quarter, even the slow Q3, while the telcos lose subscribers every quarter
  50. 50. 3. Quarterly growth Voice net adds Quarter on quarter voice net adds, 000s AT&T Cable ONE Cablevision Charter Comcast Cons Comms Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon WoW Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 50 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  51. 51. 3. Quarterly growth Voice net adds Quarter on quarter voice net adds, 000s Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 51 500 250 0 -250 -500 -750 -1,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Telco Cable Total
  52. 52. 3. Quarterly growth Voice net adds Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, all players, 000s Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 52 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  53. 53. Voice net adds Quarter on quarter broadband net adds, 000s, big players 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 53 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Note: “big players” refers to the following companies: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, DirecTV, DISH, Time Warner Cable and Verizon 3. Quarterly growth
  54. 54. 4. Revenues
  55. 55. Video revenues 4. Revenues • Even though Comcast is the largest video provider by subs, DirecTV has the highest video revenues, since it sells its TV services on a standalone basis and therefore doesn’t offer bundled discounts • Our estimates for AT&T and Verizon put them in 5th and 6th place for video revenues respectively • Combining AT&T and DirecTV would make by far the largest company by revenues, even if Comcast and Time Warner Cable also merge • These companies generate almost $100 billion in revenue a year from their TV services, or around $1000 per subscriber per year
  56. 56. Video revenues AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DirecTV DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon 56 3. Revenues 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Video revenues, $m 0 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 4.
  57. 57. Video revenues Telco Cable Total Satellite 57 4. Revenues 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Video revenues, $m 0 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
  58. 58. 4. Revenues Broadband revenues • When it comes to broadband, Comcast claims top spot in revenues as well as subs, with AT&T, Time Warner Cable and Verizon filling out the top four spots • Revenues are growing for all categories of players, and total revenues are over $9 billion per quarter, or almost $40 billion per year, from just the companies for which we have reported or estimated data
  59. 59. 4. Revenues Broadband revenues AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon 59 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Broadband revenues, $m -500 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
  60. 60. 3. Revenues Broadband revenues Telco Cable Satellite Total 60 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Broadband revenues, $m -1,000 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 4.
  61. 61. Voice revenues 4. Revenues • Total voice revenues for this group are now well below $5 billion per quarter, and falling rapidly, due to both erosion of ARPUs and falling subscriber numbers • Even though subscriber numbers are very similar between this set of telcos and this set of cable companies, there is still a significant revenue gap, with telcos generating far more revenue per subscriber from voice than the cable companies
  62. 62. Voice revenues AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon 62 3. Revenues 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Voice revenues, $m 0 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 4.
  63. 63. Voice revenues Telco Cable Total 63 3. Revenues 4. Revenues 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis Voice revenues, $m 0 Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014
  64. 64. Revenue per user 4. Revenues • The data on the following slides is estimated and/or derived from reported revenue and subscriber numbers • It shows a huge range in average revenue per user for video, from $45-100 per month, with the satellite and telco providers generating the highest revenue per user • Broadband revenue per user is much more clustered, around $40-50 for month, for most providers • Voice revenue per user is declining at most providers, but most notably at Charter, where it has fallen from $40 to $20
  65. 65. Revenue per user Video revenue per customer per month, $ AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DirecTV DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 65 34. .R Reevveennuueess 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  66. 66. Revenue per user Broadband revenue per customer per month, $ AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast DISH Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 66 34. .R Reevveennuueess 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  67. 67. Revenue per user Voice revenue per customer per month, $ AT&T Cablevision Charter Comcast Mediacom Suddenlink TWC Verizon Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014 67 34. .R Reevveennuueess 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Company reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
  68. 68. US Cable, Satellite and Telco metrics for Q3 2014 Jan Dawson Chief Analyst (408) 744-6244 jan@jackdawresearch.com @jandawson

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