Ekonomika leuven

642 views

Published on

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
642
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
13
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Ekonomika leuven

  1. 1. “Wat hebben de mensentoch tegen reclame,Wouter?”(gvds)
  2. 2. People  don’t  like  ads  (anymore)  -­‐  for  various  reasons.  That’s  why  adver<sing  works  less  and  less.    But  many  ad-­‐people  are  s1ll  in  the  denial  phase.  
  3. 3. Prof.  Dr.  Gerard  Tellis  1980-­‐1990:Adver<sing  +10%  =  +2.2%  marketshare  2008:Adver<sing  +20%  =  +2.2%  marketshare   “  ….  the  authors  conduct  a  meta-­‐analysis  of  751  short-­‐term  and  402  long-­‐term   direct-­‐to-­‐consumer  brand  adver1sing  elas1ci1es  es1mated  in  56   studies  published  between  1960  and  2008.  the  study  finds  several  new   empirical  generaliza1ons  about  adver1sing  elas1city.  the  most  important   are  as  follows:  the  average  short-­‐term  adver1sing  elas1city  is  .12,  which   is  substan1ally  lower  than  the  prior  meta-­‐analy1c  mean  of  .22;  there  has  been  a   decline  in  the  adver1sing  elas1city  over  1me.”   Gerard  Tellis,  PhD  Michigan,  is  Professor  of  Marke<ng,  Management,  and  Organiza<on,  Neely  Chair  of  American  Enterprise,  and  Director  of   the  Center  for  Global  Innova<on,  at  the  USC  Marshall  School  of  Business.  He  is  Dis<nguished  Visitor  of  Marke<ng  Research,  Erasmus   University,  RoZerdam  and  has  been  Visi<ng  Chair  of  Marke<ng,  Strategy,  and  Innova<on  at  the  Judge  Business  School,  Cambridge  University,   UK.  Tellis  specializes  in  the  areas  of  innova<on,  adver<sing,  global  strategy,  market  entry,  new  product  growth,  promo<on,  and  pricing.  
  4. 4. Why  the  hell  then  is  adver<sing  (in  the  US)  growing  faster  than  BNP  or  the  median  salary?    
  5. 5. Which  brands  will  con<nue  to  pay  that?  Media  rates  set  to  increase  by  14%  in  China  in  2013.  Media  spending  was  expected  to  grow  by  7%  on  an  annual  basis  in  2013.   • Digital:        +18%     • Outdoor:      +6%     • TV:          +5%   • Radio:      +5%   • Newspapers:    +3%     • Magazines:      +2%  
  6. 6. Less  and  less  brands  are  willing  to  sponsor  the  media.  Hence  the  growth  of  the  recommenda<on  phenomenon.  
  7. 7. Recommenders  directly  influence  20-­‐50%  of  all  purchase  decisions.  
  8. 8. Offline!  Thè  method  of  recommenda<on.   ‘Hoe meer ze over dat schandaal spreken, hoe meer paardenvlees we verkopen
  9. 9. Offline  beats  online.  Everywhere  in  the  world.  Look  at  the  Chinese  example.  
  10. 10. The  mo<ves  of  recommenders?  
  11. 11. POE:  Paid.  Owned.  Earned.  
  12. 12. At  the  moment  we  move  from  impressions  to  expressions,  ZO  broadens  brand  experience  to    …the  “good  old  impressions”.     Holaba Zenith Optimedia“the brand experience that has real Broadens “Experience” toinfluence on other consumers has to “Impressions”: opportunities to bebe limited to the actual, physical seen, heard .experience with the product/branditself. Older experiences and "hearsay “a sum total of the actions and scale inexperiences", or "nice advertising" the market – and since large amountsonly play very little role in influential of dollars still go behind mass media –WOM. the impressions (or experiences) from these tend to overwhelm the earned space.”
  13. 13. Our  2007  (!)  research  in  China  made  clear  that  experience  is  more  powerful  that  hearsay.  
  14. 14. But  here  again  friends&family  recommenda<ons  @  the  top.  
  15. 15. Who’s  influencing?    Is  all  that  buzzing  trustworthy?   “…  while  consumer  electronics  buyers  pay  more   aTen1on  to  other  consumers’  reviews  than  to   editorial  reviews  –  by  a  margin  of  more  than  three   to  one  (77  percent  vs.  23  percent)  –  a  majority  are   concerned  about  the  authen1city  of  consumer   reviews  (80  percent),  leading  them  to  conduct   considerable  analysis  before  making  their  decision.”  
  16. 16. Recommenda<on  measurement  started  with  Reichheld  in  2003  
  17. 17. How  do  you  measure  your  recommenda<on  score?  How  do  you  iden<fy  recommenders  and  detractors?  De  éne  vraag  die  nu  door  meer  en  meer  bedrijven  gesteld  wordt.  In  dit  geval  op  de  site  van  Klout.  
  18. 18. Where  does  this  recommenda<on  phenomenon  come  from?    Why  is  it  growing?  Where  can  it  lead  us  too?  Back  to  China  and  history.  
  19. 19. “Gini  =  0.61  for  2010”    Southwestern  University  of  Finance  (Chengdu)  in  2012  0.469   0.474  or  0.61?  
  20. 20. It’s  difficult  to  trust  the  Chinese  numbers.  Give  it  a  try.   ”Verdienen  deze  10%  “rijken”  maar   7.000€  /  jaar  of  …  15  à    16.000?”   Meer  dan  40€  per  dag   9% 9% 1% For  2012,  the  na<onal  G.D.P.  figure  is  es<mated  to  be   nearly  52  trillion  renminbi  (about  $8.3  trillion,)  while  the   provincial  total  was  nearly  58  trillion  (about  $9.3  trillion.)   “Media  exposes  total  G.D.P.  of  all  provinces  exceeds   na<onal  G.D.P.  by  over  5  trillion  renminbi,”  (the  exact  figure   was  5.76  trillion,)  a  headline  announced  in  the  21CN  News.   The  gap  is  getng  bigger,  fast:  in  2009,  total  provincial   G.D.P.  was  nearly  2.7  trillion  more  than  na<onal  G.D.P.;  in   2010  it  was  more  than  3  trillion;  in  2011  it  was  4.6  trillion,   Minder  dan  2€  per  dag   the  Beijing  News  reported.   In  a  chain  of  exaggera<on  that  begins  at  the  village  or   county  level,  the  figures  pile  up  un<l  they  overreach  any   possible  na<onal  total,  the  ar<cles  indicate.   10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Weinig verdieners Veel verdieners
  21. 21. This  is  how  the  rich  get  richer.  Nothing  stops  them.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324906004578287182123200020.html?mod=djemITPA_t
  22. 22. Chinese  trust  their  media.    They  at  least  cover  the  scandals.  hZp://www.slideshare.net/EdelmanInsights/global-­‐deck-­‐2013-­‐edelman-­‐trust-­‐barometer-­‐16086761  
  23. 23. Chinese  trust  Big  Companies.    Small  is  not  beau<ful.  ”The  winners  take  it  all”.  
  24. 24. Our  own  numbers  from  the  daily  deal  industry  prove  the  “magnet  of  Big”  
  25. 25. Chinese  (even)(s<ll)  trust  their  banks.    Haven’t  they  done  anything  wrong  yet?  
  26. 26. Banks  in  China  (only  in  China?)  are  appreciated.  Hence  the  trust  
  27. 27. At  the  top  of  the  Chinese  brands:  plenty  of  banks,  insurances  …  
  28. 28. These  Chinese  topbrands  are  also  top-­‐users  of  social  media.   hZp://www.resonancechina.com/2013/02/06/chinese-­‐valuable-­‐brands-­‐more-­‐present-­‐in-­‐social-­‐media/  
  29. 29. Don’t  trust  the  topshots  in  these  big  ins<tutes.  
  30. 30. Trust  the  ins<tutes  and  corpora<ons.    Not  their  leaders.  
  31. 31. I”ll  search  for  it  myself.  
  32. 32. China:  46  minutes  per  day  on  social  media.    Japan:  7  min.    VS:  37  min.  
  33. 33. More  social  media  is   less  <me     @  other  sites   …..    and  changing   communica<on-­‐ behavior   (Record  34,977  posts  seen  on  Sina  Weibo  in   first  second  of  lunar  new  year)  
  34. 34. Chinese  are  not  loyal.    Not  even  to  their  social  media.  
  35. 35. In  China  recommenders  influence  more  than  wherever  else  in  the  world.  
  36. 36. “Incredible”  study  from  Insites.  
  37. 37. Friends  and  family.  They  are  the  trusted  source.  Adver<sing  …?  
  38. 38. Chinese?  They  buy  a  lot  online  and  tell  it  to  a  lot  of  people  online  too.  
  39. 39. Who  changes  his  mind  when  people  argue  online?     http://twitter.yfrog.com/f6rtqtj
  40. 40. Recommenders  dominate  “share  of  voice”  and  influence  ”share  of  market”.    How  do  we  calculate  that?  
  41. 41. Clever  marke<ng!    
  42. 42. Why  do  you  recommend?  And  why  not?  
  43. 43. Reviews  do  the  job!  
  44. 44. Moments  of  truth.  All  3  are  crucial.   1st  moment  of  truth   2nd    moment  of  truth   3rd    moment  of  truth   Buying     Consuming   Evalua<ng   (Neutral)   Consumer   Promoter><Detractor   15%  are   85%  are   Selec<ng   Selec<ng   “influencing”   being   shop   brand   influenced   others  
  45. 45. Back  to  the  Reichheld  ques<on.    And  the  Holaba-­‐site  in  China.  
  46. 46. Not  only  we  ask  clients  whether  they  will/will  not  recommend  a  brand…   8   8 8   NPS  
  47. 47. We  ask  non-­‐clients  too.  They  too  judge,  talk  and  influence.  That’s  why  we  ask  them.   NPS  
  48. 48. Your  recommenda<on-­‐score  is  “only”  meaningful,  when  you  know  the  score  of  your  compe<tors.  
  49. 49. You  recommend  what?  
  50. 50. This  is  what  the  social  consumer  will  buy  …based  on  recommenda<on  
  51. 51. Add  recommenda<on  scores  in  your    tradi<onal  RFM  marcom-­‐planning    (recency,  frequency,  monetary  value)    and  turn  it  into  RRFM.  
  52. 52. From  RFM  to  Recency,  frequency,  monetary  value  (RFM)  of   RRFM  to   decide  about  clients  are  decisive  for  investment  in   RFM  -­‐  axis  marke<ng  communica<on.  Therefore  lots  of  money  spent  (wasted)  in  this  group  of  heavy   what  to  invest  and  recent  buyers     where.  Light  and  non  frequent  buyers  are  ozen  “neglected”    
  53. 53. The  recommenda2on   power  of  clients  becomes   the  decisive  tool  to  decide   on  marcom-­‐investments   RFM  -­‐  axis   Does  not  mean  they  all  give  posi1ve  +RFM  &  -­‐  REC   +RFM  &  +  REC   recommenda1ons   RecommendaKon  axis   Frequency  and  intensity  of   recommenda2on.   -­‐  RFM  &  +  REC  -­‐  RFM  &  -­‐  REC  
  54. 54. Use  it  also  to  analyze  your  retail  performance:    Shops  with  a  high  recommenda1on  power    sell  beZer.  Measure  their  recommenda1on  power  too.  
  55. 55. 1.  
  56. 56. 2.  
  57. 57. 3.  
  58. 58. 4.  
  59. 59. 5.  
  60. 60. From  SoLoMo  to  SoLoReMo.  hTp://wijs.be/nl/trends-­‐inzichten/blog/detail/online-­‐trendrapport-­‐2013  
  61. 61. E-­‐commerce.    
  62. 62. Unstoppable….  
  63. 63. Consumerprofiles  will  all  of  a  sudden    look  completely  different.  
  64. 64. To  influence  these  influencers,  iden<fy  them.  Con<nuously.    Everywhere.  
  65. 65. “Instead  of  running  ads,  solve  the  shit”  
  66. 66. ?   ?   ?   ?  
  67. 67. “Uit  onze  gegevens  blijkt  dat  u  het  toestel  heei  aangekocht  op  14-­‐07-­‐2011  op  naam  van  xxxx.  Omdat  dit  een  bedrijfsaankoop  is  (met  BTW  nummer)  geldt  hier   1  slechts  een  garan1e  van  één  jaar,  het  toestel  valt  dus  momenteel  buiten  garan1e.  Indien  we  het  toestel  omruilen  buiten  garan1e  (voor  hetzelfde  toestel)  dan  zou  de  repara1eprijs  komen  op  ongeveer  €  494.”  
  68. 68. 1  iPhone  Repeat  Purchase  Inten<on  Drops  13  points  in  Western  Europe.  Likely  to  buy  next  iPhone  from  Apple?   •   88  %  in  2011   •   75  %  in  2012   Strategy  Analy1cs  Wireless  Device  Lab  Report-­‐  oct  2012  
  69. 69. 1  
  70. 70. 2  
  71. 71. 2  
  72. 72. 2  
  73. 73. 2  hTp://www.slideshare.net/dataotuan/the-­‐mysterious-­‐facebook-­‐likes  
  74. 74. The  mysterious  Facebook-­‐likes?    They  spam.  
  75. 75. 2  
  76. 76. 3  
  77. 77. 3  
  78. 78. 3  
  79. 79. 3  “Als  geste  van  goede  wil  en  in  de  hoop  uw  vertrouwen  in  onze  maatschappij  enigszins  te  herstellen,  wil  ik  u  graag  5000  Flying  Blue  mijlen  aanbieden.    De  mijlen  worden  binnen  enkele  dagen  bijgeschreven  op  uw  Flying  Blue  rekening.”  J.  Viel  Customer  Care  Europe  26.10.2012  
  80. 80. 3  
  81. 81. 3  
  82. 82. 4  
  83. 83. 4  
  84. 84. Overview:  50  responses  received     hZp://surveyreport.com/  2.  1.  
  85. 85. “ “
  86. 86. Jan  Van  den  Bergh  杨⽂文博  jevedebe@gmail.com  hYps://www.facebook.com/jevedebe  hYps://www.facebook.com/holaba  TwiYer:@holaba    Skype:jevedebechina  +86  136  2179  9450  (CH)  +32    475  427  882  (BEL)  A  :  上海市新闸路831号丽都新贵13层F室,  200041  13-F,  No  831  Xin  Zha  Road,  Shanghai,  200041  

×