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Future of Housing

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Presented at the National Housing Group's annual conference in London, on 13 October 2016.

Published in: Real Estate
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Future of Housing

  1. 1. THE FUTURE IS HERE
  2. 2. THE FUTURE IS HERE @JAMESWALLMAN
  3. 3. THE FUTURE OF HOUSING 13 OCTOBER 2016
  4. 4. Wayne Gretzky “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”
  5. 5. AGENDA • METHOD • MACRO-TRENDS • HOUSING TRENDS • FURTHER FUTURE TRENDS • TAKE-AWAY
  6. 6. METHOD
  7. 7. William Gibson “The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
  8. 8. THE FUTURE IS HERE 1. Understand the macro-trends 2. Investigate the innovation 3. Use Diffusion of Innovations curve
  9. 9. THE FUTURE IS HERE
  10. 10. THE FUTURE IS HERE
  11. 11. THE FUTURE IS HERE
  12. 12. THE FUTURE IS HERE
  13. 13. MACRO-TRENDS
  14. 14. THE FUTURE IS HERE RISING DEMAND London needs 809,000 homes by 2021 Source: London Councils “What this country desperately needs… homes that people on ordinary incomes can actually afford to rent or buy.” Campbell Robb, chief executive, Shelter Image: Visualhouse & Dan Lowe
  15. 15. THE FUTURE IS HERE ACCELERATING CHANGE “The pace of technological change [is] making heads spin” The Economist Social Development Index, Ian Morris
  16. 16. THE FUTURE IS HERE EVERYWARE • AI, AR, VR, ML, IoT • Automation • Always-on “Facebook has more people than God on this planet, and can reach them on a mobile phone” Scott Galloway, NYU Stern Mercedes-Benz’s self-driving car
  17. 17. THE FUTURE IS HERE
  18. 18. THE FUTURE IS HERE “Software is 
 eating the world” Marc Andreesen, 
 Andreessen Horowitz
  19. 19. THE FUTURE IS HERE AMORTALITY People are living much longer. And they “rarely ask themselves if their behaviour is age appropriate because that concept has little meaning for them” Catherine Mayer, Amortality Duffie Grieve, 82, tennis champion Image: Bolder, www.be-bolder.com
  20. 20. THE FUTURE IS HERE CARBON CONCERN To hit the COP 21 target of <2°C, humans must become a carbon sink by 2070. Source: Danny Dorling & Mark Maslin
  21. 21. THE FUTURE IS HERE SMART LIVING We don’t want more anymore. We want to be smart — to get more from less. So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of today. • Smartphones • Smart homes • Smart cities
  22. 22. THE FUTURE IS HERE SMART LIVING We don’t want more anymore. We want to be smart — to get more from less. So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of today. • Smartphones • Smart homes • Smart cities
  23. 23. THE FUTURE IS HERE SMART LIVING We don’t want more anymore. We want to be smart — to get more from less. So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of today. • Smartphones • Smart homes • Smart cities
  24. 24. THE FUTURE IS HERE STILL HUMAN "Human minds are the product of evolution, shaped by millions of years of natural selection.” Jason Collins, blogger, Evolving Economics
  25. 25. THE FUTURE IS HERE EXPERIENTIALISM • Post-materialism: from standards of living to quality of life • Happynomics • Sharing economy • Community matters • Light living: access not ownership
  26. 26. TRENDS
  27. 27. THE FUTURE IS HERE UP! “London will have to be developed more densely… another 2.5m people… accommodating these sorts of numbers will inevitably demand more tall buildings.” Peter Murray, New London Architecture At 234m, Spire will be W Europe’s 
 tallest residential building
  28. 28. THE FUTURE IS HERE REGENERATION NATION Housing & Planning Act backs brownfield sites. • Local councils active • Brick by Brick in Croydon • Gateshead Regeneration Partnership U+I’s plans for Swanley, Kent.
  29. 29. THE FUTURE IS HERE MICRO RISING "Millennials prize experiences over stuff. They will sacrifice space for location… “Millennial” is more of a mindset than an age group…  downsizing has been perceived as downgrading, but… that’s not the case anymore.” Andy Levin, Carmel Place A Pocket Living development
  30. 30. THE FUTURE IS HERE The ideal micro- apartment is 275-300 sq ft (25-28 sq m) Source: Urban Land Institute • H&P Act makes more micro possible • Twodios are 29 sq m 2-bed flat • Pocket’s are 38 sq m Pocket Living interior
  31. 31. THE FUTURE IS HERE The Kasita is 300 sq ft. “Young people don’t need much space since they no longer have the physical belongings (records, DVDs, books, magazines and even TVs) of previous generations.” Lucian Smithers, Pocket • Pocket sold 200 units in past 10 years; 200 in 2016; 300 in January 2017
  32. 32. THE FUTURE IS HERE “Cowboys that convert commercial buildings can easily flog a coffin- sized bedsit.” David Birkbeck, chief executive, Design for Homes Pocket Living interior
  33. 33. THE FUTURE IS HERE “Cowboys that convert commercial buildings can easily flog a coffin- sized bedsit.” David Birkbeck, chief executive, Design for Homes
  34. 34. THE FUTURE IS HERE FLEXIBLE FRIENDS “amazing, transforming furniture–Murphy beds, transforming tables, etc–that most young renters would not typically invest in themselves” Andy Levin, Carmel Place Carmel Place, NYC’s first official micro-unit
  35. 35. THE FUTURE IS HERE Adjacent units in The Panoramic in San Francisco can be joined
  36. 36. THE FUTURE IS HERE GENERATION RENT • 80% rented privately in 1918 • 10% today; value £1.29 trillion, up 55% over 5 years • 22% by 2025 Sources: ONS, Savills Fizzy Living landlords vs renters
  37. 37. THE FUTURE IS HERE GENERATION RENT • Housing & Planning Act wants to stop “rogue landlords” • Rent with Confidence is a Trip Advisor for renting Matterport reduces friction
  38. 38. THE FUTURE IS HERE FASTER HOMES A smart way to increase supply is “manufactured housing”. “It means the client can get what they want rather than get what they can get.” Andrew Partridge, RSH-P PLACE / Ladywell in Lewisham
  39. 39. THE FUTURE IS HERE • You can build the Pop-Up House in four days using just an electric screwdriver. • It's built to Passivhaus standards A complete Pop-Up House.
  40. 40. THE FUTURE IS HERE ECO HOMES • Exeter City Council has commissioned more Passivhaus standard houses • New materials such as wood The Cube in Shoreditch 
 by Hawkins Brown
  41. 41. THE FUTURE IS HERE ECO HOMES • Exeter City Council has commissioned more Passivhaus standard houses • New materials such as wood Y Cube: made from reclaimed timber; rents are 65% of market rate
  42. 42. THE FUTURE IS HERE “WELCOME HOMES” Connected homes will act like thoughtful servants. • Virtual assistants • Auto-recognition • Cognitive computers • Smart sensors Amazon’s Alexa
  43. 43. THE FUTURE IS HERE EMPTY NESTERS Under-occupied housing is one of the great problems — and opportunities — of our time. • 16m in under-occupied houses • 6m in houses with 2 or more excess bedrooms • 4.5m 50-64 year-olds; 90% 65-79 year-olds • 160,000 shortage of retirement homes by 2030 Source: ILC-UK
  44. 44. THE FUTURE IS HERE LTBs (LAST-TIME BUYERS) Government report recommended: • remove stamp duty • help-to-buy • financial advice Grove Park retirement community
  45. 45. THE FUTURE IS HERE “Walk-in showers with grab-rails are good, but only if they look like something you’d find in a luxury hotel.” Lord Best Battersea Place is London's first luxury retirement community
  46. 46. THE FUTURE IS HERE “Walk-in showers with grab-rails are good, but only if they look like something you’d find in a luxury hotel.” Lord Best Battersea Place is London's first luxury retirement community
  47. 47. THE FUTURE IS HERE “Walk-in showers with grab-rails are good, but only if they look like something you’d find in a luxury hotel.” Lord Best Battersea Place is London's first luxury retirement community
  48. 48. FURTHER FUTURES
  49. 49. THE FUTURE IS HERE HAPPY HOMES "What's really going to make a home a happy place is what a resident does to it and… also the freedom a resident has to transform it… an abundance of daylight, generous ceiling spaces, as nice views as possible, and access to big outdoor spaces” Bjarke Ingels At Big House, people cycle, walk past terraced gardens up to the 10th floor penthouses.
  50. 50. THE FUTURE IS HERE TEMPORARY HOMES “a building’s permanence — long considered major part of its value — may increasingly seen as a weakness instead of a strength” Johnny Magdaleno, journalist Created for crisis, SURI units are more advanced than most homes. • filter rain into potable water • 10-year life span • re-cycle, reuse, biodegrade SURI by Suricatta
  51. 51. THE FUTURE IS HERE CO-LIVING Co-living brings community to micro apartments. • Private rooms • Common areas • Includes wifi, bills, cleaning, events The Collective Old Oak Common
  52. 52. THE FUTURE IS HERE • Common in NY, SF, DC • StarCity in SF • The Collective in London • Roam in Bali, Miami, Madrid • Soon also SF, London, Buenos Aires, Tokyo The Collective Old Oak Common
  53. 53. THE FUTURE IS HERE • Common in NY, SF, DC • StarCity in SF • The Collective in London • Roam in Bali, Miami, Madrid • Soon also SF, London, Buenos Aires, Tokyo The Collective Old Oak Common
  54. 54. THE FUTURE IS HERE RURAL MICRO Asset light is not because people have to. It's because they want to. It’s a lifestyle choice. • Ecocapsule is the “Swiss Army knife of tiny homes” EcoCapsule also filters rain water.
  55. 55. THE FUTURE IS HERE • Harvard startup Getaway is for rural escapes Photograph by Roderick Aichinger The Maisie Cabin near New York
  56. 56. THE FUTURE IS HERE • Harvard startup Getaway is for rural escapes Inside a Getaway
  57. 57. THE FUTURE IS HERE VAN LIFE 2.0 Q: If your vehicle self- drives, what will you do inside it? A: Whatever you want. It's a small step from a tiny home to #vanlife.
  58. 58. THE FUTURE IS HERE Trailer parks would be the ultimate in asset- light, community- oriented living. Tony Hsieh's trailer park, Las Vegas
  59. 59. TAKE-AWAY
  60. 60. TAKE-AWAY • GO MICRO • STAY FLEXIBLE • THINK ASSET LIGHT • CREATE COMMUNITY • REDUCE FRICTION — WITH TECH • MAKE HAPPY HOMES FOR EXPERIENTIALISTS
  61. 61. THE FUTURE OF HOUSING 13 OCTOBER 2016
  62. 62. THE FUTURE IS HERE JAMES@THEFISH.CO
  63. 63. THANK YOU THIS VISION OF THE FUTURE WAS INFORMED AND INSPIRED BY INSIGHTS & EXPERTISE FROM: • James Hall, political advisor to John Healey MP • Fionnuala Earley, chief economist, Hamptons • Richard Brown, research director, Centre for London • Kristel Tracy, communications manager, U+I plc • Lucian Smithers, director of sales and marketing, Pocket • Hannah Godwin, marketing executive, Pocket
  64. 64. THANK YOU • Meg Kaufman, project manager, 
 What Works Centre, Centre for Cities • Henry Pryor, The Property Expert • Harry Downes, managing director, Fizzy Living • Jeff Wilson, founder, Kasita • David Friedlander, tiny home expert • Barney Stringer, director, Quod
  65. 65. THANK YOU • Graham Hill, founder, Life Edited • Nigel Howell, chief executive, FirstPort • Sophy Taylor, founder, Taylor Made Media • John Perry, policy advisor, Chartered Institue of Housing • Ligia Teixeira, head of research and evaluation, Crisis • John Tierney, director, Transform Management Consultancy
  66. 66. THANK YOU • Greg Wilkinson, policy consultant • Andrew Partridge, associate partner, 
 Rogers Stirk Harbour + Partners • Vicki Macgregor, associate, curator of exhibitions, 
 Rogers Stirk Harbour + Partners • David Rabee, head of marketing (UK), Matterport • Carl Kibblewhite, experientialist • Katie Griffiths, producer, The Future Is Here
  67. 67. THE FUTURE IS HERE JAMES@THEFISH.CO

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