Immobilien in Deutschland

1,425 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,425
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Specific real estate services are offered with regard to the strategy development and consultancy as well as the selection, management and reporting The real estate services are offered on the basis of the market research together with the forecast and rating provided by Feri Rating and Research GmbH
  • Basically one can differentiate between direct and indirect property investments. Whereas direct investments comprise property investments as well as project developments we will pay attention to indirect property investments. These can be differentiated into funds such as open-ended funds or REIT-funds, property equities and derivatives. Thus there exists a wide range of property investment possiblities and in this, lets say competitive environment one should ask whether a REIT can fulfill the requirements of private investors regarding an optimized indirect property investment.
  • Demand: often results in a premium of the portfolio value as compared to the sum of the individual properties next to national and international funds, insurances and pension funds are mainly investing in office and retail during the past years a vast amount of residential real estate was sold through portfolio transactions summarizing these factors, an increase in purchase prices together with a yield compression are seen in several German cities Supply: Companies and the state that own properties that do not belong to the main business activity sell their real estate several funds now see a good opportunity to sell single properties at attractive prices Further: after international investors were able to obtain debt for investing with high leverage, German banks are willingly to finance those investments as well the interest rate levels remains at an attractive level which favors the financing of real estate
  • German office rents What: Graph shows the rental development of 67 locations in Germany in their respective class A regions (weighted) How: after a strong rise of property rents in 2000, a slump began in 2001 and strengthened between 2003 and 2005 since 2006 we see an upward trend in rents that is likely to continue over the next years Why: from 1996 onwards a great boom was characterised by high demand since 2002 augmented supply decreased absorption and weakened demand which put pressure on rents the excess supply won‘t burden the market for a long time with both rents and prices are projected to rise German total office stock What: graph shows the total office stock of 67 locations in Germany indexed at 2000 because no reliable data on the square metres can be obtained How: between 1996 and 2005, total office stock increased by approx. 12 % from 2004 onwards total office stock will only see a slight increase Why: after an increase in demand, supply came to the market over the past years and stopped when the demand was satisfied due to a relatively low volume of supply in the future the general vacancy rate is expected to fall Rents and purchase prices What: graph shows %-change in rents and purchase prices as compared to the previous year How: after negative growth from 1996 to 1998 in both rents and purchase prices, purchase prices began to increase even higher than rents between 1999 and 2001 between 2002 and 2004, both rents and purchase prices had negative growth between 2005 onwards rents and purchase prices are going to increase as well Why: between 2002 and 2005 rents and purchase prices declined especially in top cities due to a huge supply the relatively low volume of new supply leads to a moderate increase in purchase prices over the next years Total return What: graph shows total return of class A properties subsuming rental yield and price appreciation How: in 1996 class A office rents had negative total returns between 1997 and 2001 total returns increased up to 15% 2001 until 2005 total returns declined until they became negative from 2006 to 2015 stable total returns between 6 and 8 % are expected Why: the cyclical economic downswing that set in just after the turn of the century led to sharply declining office rents and prices due to recent increase in supply but only moderate activity in the future, yields won‘t be at the level they were in 2000
  • German residential rents What: Graph shows the rental development of 67 locations for old buildings in Germany in their respective regions (weighted) How: quite stable rents between 1996 and 2005 increase in residential rents from 2006 onwards Why: decline in completions over the past years, while the population increased, leads to a an upward trend in the future increasing number of households leads to a higher demand German total retail stock What: graph shows the total retail stock of 67 locations in Germany How: increase in total retail stock from 1996 to 2003 by roughly 7 % in total only a slight increase between 2006 and 2015 expected Why: in coming years, a low new building activity will lead to a progressively shorter supply Rents and purchase prices What: graph shows %-change in rents and purchase prices as compared to the previous year How: after negative growth from 1996 to 1999 in both rents and purchase prices, purchase prices and rents began to increase 2000 and 2004 in 2004 purchase prices had negative growth between 2006 onwards rents and purchase prices are going to increase as well at rates between 2 and 3 % Why: rents and purchase prices are going to increase because of increasing demand in the future in 2004 purchase prices fell because supply came to the market Total return What: graph shows total return of old building properties subsuming rental yield and price appreciation How: between 1996 and 2001 old building total returns were rising up to over 6% in 2001 between 2002 and 2004 total returns were falling down to 2003 from 2005 and 2015 total returns are between 7 and 8% Why: after steady increase in total returns from 1996 to 2000 due to increasing, supply exceeded demand in 2003 leading to a lower total return next years show a stable total return with rents and purchase prices rising in the same manner
  • German retail rents What: Graph shows the rental development of 67 locations in Germany in their respective class A regions (weighted) How: slight decline in retail rents from 1996 to 2000 increase in retail rents from 2006 onwards Why: in the inner city areas demand for retail space continues to be high given the very good income performance and the scant supply of retail space at top locations, rising rents are expected German total retail stock What: graph shows the total retail stock of 67 locations in Germany How: increase in total retail stock from 1996 to 2006 by roughly 30 % in total only a slight increase between 2006 and 2015 expected Why: particularly shopping centres at secondary locations are coming on the market Rents and purchase prices What: graph shows %-change in rents and purchase prices as compared to the previous year How: after negative growth from 1996 to 1999 in both rents and purchase prices, purchase prices and rents began to increase 2000 and 2001 between 2002 and 2006, both rents and purchase prices had negative growth between 2006 onwards rents and purchase prices are going to increase as well Why: see above Total return What: graph shows total return of class A properties subsuming rental yield and price appreciation How: between 1996 and 1999 class A office rents had negative total returns between 2000 and 2006 total returns were quite volatile lying between 1 and 8 percent from 2007 to 2015 stable total returns between 6 and 8 % are expected Why: yields in top locations until the beginning of the century were low or even negative, also because developments in secondary locations came to the market demand will drive further yields with rents going to increase
  • 1. Concerning th office market, we expect the highest risk-adjusted potential over the next 10 years in the following regions ... 2. However, there is additional potential in ..... Bargains can be escpecially made in Leipzig and Berlin in Berlin und Leipzig erhalten. If anybody is willingly to invest with a bit more risk these are the right places because returns are higher. If the risks are reduced due to a good tenant mix, I did most of it right. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this graph you see the risk-adjusted potential. i.e. location A: Rental yield 5,5% Appreciation 2,4 % Risk discount 0,5 % = risk-adjusted yield 7,4 % i.e.. Standort B: Rental yield 6 % Appreciation 2 % Risk discount 1 % = risk-adjusted yield 7 % -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Let us now have a look at the German retail property market
  • DemographyDemographie is not only concerned about birth and death rates. It furthermore considers the general developments of the population through internal migration. What we see here, is ... for example - a particular high growth in the regions ... - main determinant are working places During the past years, we had an extensive internal migration - 1990 to 2000: + 7% in Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, - 7% in Sachsen and Thüringen and we will see that in the future as well - 2000 bis 2020: + 40 % County of Potsdam- Mittelmark - 30 % Jena However you have to be careful with those forecasts, - as the movement of one large company can even in one county lead to a huge change. as many parameters are hardly to forecast ex ante. These are for example the structural change or successfull regional economics or education politics. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- generally the internal migration will be diversified; Northern Germany (except of Hamburg) the Ruhr area and the Eastern part of Germany will loose; the Rhineland and main parts of the South will win. Conclusion: in vast parts of Germany, some suburban areas remain as islands of growth. (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumplanung).
  • - German and foreign investors are currently searching for German property and often pay attractive prices Property investors should search in areas other than the classic main investment cities such as München, Hamburg, Berlin, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Stuttgart, Köln, Leipzig rising property prices and only moderately rising rents are leading to a yield compression  however in an international context, Germany still has a potential for further yield compression however, the increasing competition for profitable properties demands for a sophisticated investment selection with the ability to identify attractive objects may be also through off-market deals
  • Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention (and I would really appreciate to answer your questions now!)
  • Immobilien in Deutschland

    1. 1. Feri Wealth Management GmbH Direct Investments in German Real Estate Dr. Jürgen Schäfer Berlin, October 27, 2006
    2. 2. Feri Real Estate Services for both private and institutional clients … Real estate and real estate funds Real estate locations Feri Real Estate Services Rents and property prices Market research, forecast & rating <ul><li>general investment strategy </li></ul><ul><li>single investment strategy </li></ul><ul><li>portfolio (re-)development </li></ul><ul><li>management </li></ul><ul><li>portfolio disinvestments </li></ul>Strategy development & consultancy <ul><li>portfolio and single investments </li></ul><ul><li>funds, listed and other non-listed vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>external service providers </li></ul><ul><li>investment and disinvestment processes </li></ul><ul><li>performance measurement and controlling </li></ul>Selection, management & reporting
    3. 3. ... while covering a variety of property investments ... Indirect property investments Properties i.e. offices, hotels, multi-family, retail Direct property investments Property developments i.e. offices, hotels, multi-family, retail Funds i.e. open/ closed-ended funds, property equities- and REIT-fund, fund of funds Property equities i.e. property equities, REITs Derivates i.e. index certificates, futures on REITs Property investments
    4. 4. What happens in German Real Estate markets? G-REIT Demand ... Supply ... Further, ... ... for office, retail and residential property is increasing ... from foreign, private and institutional investors is high ... creates rising property prices and falling initial yields ... is driven by „adjustments“ ... is often represented by portfolio offers ... comes from private and institutional investors as well as from the government ... banks are again financing property investments with low equity participation ... a relatively low interest rate level can be expected for the near future
    5. 5. Office property market Germany Source: Feri Rating & Research GmbH (3. quarter 2006) Rental development Rental forecast Development Forecast Development Forecast Development Forecast
    6. 6. Residential property market Germany Source: Feri Rating & Research GmbH (3. quarter 2006) Rental development Rental forecast Development Forecast Development Forecast Development Forecast
    7. 7. Retail property market Germany Rental forecast Development Forecast Source: Feri Rating & Research GmbH (3. quarter 2006) Development Forecast Development Forecast Rental development
    8. 8. Which urban areas carry a high potential at low risks? Source: Feri Rating & Research GmbH (3. quarter 2006) The German office property map shows ... ... in comparison with other European countries a good diversification of attractive property locations and ... nevertheless a clear develop- ment of winning cities.
    9. 9. Which parts of Germany represent favourable residential investment opportunities? The German residential property map shows ... ... that people do not move to places where apartments are empty but ... inhabitate regions where they find a working place. Source: Feri Rating & Research GmbH (3. quarter 2006)
    10. 10. What are the best places for retail property investments? The German retail property map shows ... ... that excellent retail space can be found inner-city and outer- city. Source: Feri Rating & Research GmbH (3. quarter 2006)
    11. 11. Conclusion <ul><li>property owners should check, whether a sale is profitable </li></ul><ul><li>property investors should search for locations that are not in the focus of foreign, private and institutional investors </li></ul><ul><li>property yields are still attractive in relation to many other countries </li></ul><ul><li>intense competition between investors that target German property leads to a demand for expertise in investment selection </li></ul>
    12. 12. Contact details Feri Wealth Management GmbH Haus am Park Rathausplatz 8-10 D-61348 Bad Homburg v.d.H. Germany These information are provided by the Feri Wealth Management GmbH. The data, analyses, forecasts and concepts containted in this presentation are for your information only and without responsibility. No responsibility is taken for the correctness of these information. The presentation must not be perceived as a fiscal, legal or other kind of consultancy and does not provide a basis for the administration of assets or the recommendation and consultancy concerning the disposition of assets. The performance in the past is not a guarantee for future performance. The share price as well as the generated return may rise or fall, which is not guaranteed. The presentation has to be kept in confidence. Without the prior sanction of Feri Wealth Management GmbH, this presentation may only be used for internal purposes. Dr. Jürgen Schäfer Partner Head of Real Estate Phone +49 (6 172) 9 16 - 3119 Fax +49 (6 172) 9 16 - 1119 E-Mail [email_address] - -

    ×