Strategic Planning 2010

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Strategic Planning 2010

  1. 1. Strategic Planning for 2010 Dr Randall Harris Department of Management, Operations and Marketing
  2. 2. The University In short there is no vision, nor is there a set of competing visions, of what an educated human being is. The question has disappeared, for to pose it would be a threat to the peace. - Allan Bloom, The Closing of the American Mind We have to recognize that the University is a ruined institution, while thinking what it means to dwell in those ruins without recourse to romantic nostalgia... My argument is that the market structure of the post-historical University makes the figure of the student as consumer more and more a reality... - Bill Readings, The University in Ruins One issue central to the debates among the postmodern movements is the commodification of education and knowledge. Science is transformed from the master legitimation of modernism into yet another sector of commodified production, with knowledge becoming both a product to be sold and a good to be consumed. - Robert Gephart, Postmodern Management and Organizational Theory
  3. 3. The University is Big Business <ul><li>The US has at least 5 million College & University students. </li></ul><ul><li>This figure is 10 times the number in 1939. </li></ul><ul><li>US Universities “earn” at least $175 billion per year (2x size of airline industry). </li></ul><ul><li>Universities are increasingly being scrutinized much like any other business. </li></ul><ul><li>Business Models, as a result, are being introduced into academic planning processes. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Current Situation & Performance Environment Scanning & Assessment Industry Analysis Company Analysis: SWOT Strategy Formulation & Planning Implement Evaluate & Adjust Source: De Kluyver & Pearce (2003) We are here
  5. 5. Key Strategic Questions <ul><li>Where is the University now? (Not where do we hope that it is). </li></ul><ul><li>If no changes are made, where will the University be in five years ? </li></ul><ul><li>If the answers to the first two questions are unacceptable, what specific actions should we undertake ? What risks and payoffs are involved? </li></ul>
  6. 6. Crafting a Strategy <ul><li>Question: Is strategy formulation a totally rational process, or does is consist exclusively of power and coalition formation? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rational-Deductive School </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Power and Coalition School </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Henry Mintzburg: The best strategies are crafted out of both. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Paradox: Purely deliberate strategies preclude learning once the strategy is formulated. However, purely emergent strategies preclude control. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Kierkegaard – </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Life is lived forward but understood backward.” </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Setting Objectives for CSU, Stanislaus <ul><li>What is to be accomplished, when it will be done, and how it can be measured. </li></ul><ul><li>Good objectives accomplish several things: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(1) provide guidance, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(2) effect planning, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(3) provide motivation, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(4) form the basis for evaluating activity. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Objectives should be derived from and congruent with the mission of the organization (mission-driven). </li></ul>
  8. 8. Setting Objectives for CSU, Stanislaus <ul><li>Objectives should be doable. </li></ul><ul><li>Objectives should be measurable. </li></ul><ul><li>Objectives need to be selective. The University can only focus on so much at any point in time. </li></ul><ul><li>Objectives may be in conflict. This is due to one objective being in conflict with another (selective attention as a coping mechanism). </li></ul><ul><li>Everybody attends to objectives when they are rewarded for doing so. </li></ul>
  9. 9. External Analysis
  10. 10. Key External Issues <ul><li>Declining State support for the CSU System. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Emphasis on Alternative channels for University revenues. </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertain political climate in Sacramento. </li></ul><ul><li>Structural state deficits in Sacramento. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased public scrutiny of CSU operations. </li></ul>
  11. 11. California Annual Unemployment Rates Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies
  12. 12. Monthly Unemployment, Modesto MSA, 2003-2004
  13. 13. Educational Lag in the Central Valley: Percent of persons age 25+ with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, 2000 Source: County QuickFacts, U.S. Census Bureau 24.4 United States 26.6 California 11.0 Merced County 14.1 Stanislaus County 14.5 San Joaquin County 16.1 Tuolumne County 17.1 Calaveras County 20.2 Mariposa County % of persons 25+ Place
  14. 14. Distribution of Employment in the Six-County Region, 2002 Source: County Snapshots, Labor Market Information Division of the California Employment Development Department Govt. 19% Other Services 3% Leisure and Hospitality 8% Educ. And Health Ser. 10% Ag. 9% Natl. Res. Mining, & Const. 6% Man. 12% Trade, Trans. & Util. 20% Prof. and Bus. Ser. 8% Financial Activities 4% Information 1%
  15. 15. Personal Wage Earnings, Modesto MSA, 2002, by Industry Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Total Wage Earnings: $7.5 billion (includes food processing)
  16. 16. Land used by agriculture declined by only 2,184 acres between 1998 and 2000, or 0.05% of the total. Crop production value was almost $1.4 billion— a 1% increase over 2001 and a 14.25% increase over 2000. Water use in Stanislaus County was high, with irrigation accounting for 90% of all fresh water withdrawals. In 1995, per capita use of fresh water in gallons per day was 3,475 in Stanislaus County compared with 1,130 on average in the state. Much of the county’s job growth occurred in the non-farm, service, government, and retail sectors. In spite of this growth, unemployment in the county increased from 10.2% in 2001 to 11.4% in 2002 and rates remain 4 or 5 percentage points higher than the state average. 1,056 acres were added to “urban and built up” land. Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies
  17. 17. Stanislaus County Land Use Conversion Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies
  18. 18. California consumes more water than any other state, withdrawing 45.9 billion gallons per day. Water Use in Stanislaus County Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies
  19. 19. Internal Analysis
  20. 20. California is one of the fastest growing states in the Union and its high school graduate cohort is expected to increase over 18% between 2000-01 and 2009-10 from 319,870 students to 388,721 students. As stated in the President’s Strategic Goals for 2001-02, the University is expected to grow to 10,000 students by 2008 provided that funding from the state supports that rate of growth. Source: CSUS Office of Enrollment Management The opening of the University of California at Merced in the fall of 2005 will provide increased competition in recruiting the highest quality students in the valley. The Latino population over this same period will grow by 59.5%, and the Asian/Pacific Islander will grow at a rate of 17.6%. African American growth will be slower at 15%, and the state’s white population will decline by 19% California Population Pressures
  21. 21. State of California High School Graduation Growth (Headcount) by Ethnic Classification (2000-2010) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 1998 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management 388,721 100,308 150,960 54,566 3,768 24,020 2009-10 395,761 112,570 140,818 52,851 3,623 25,388 2007-08 341,489 112,829 116,387 49,490 3,556 23,988 2005-06 328,821 121,391 102,344 46,772 3,050 22,016 2002-03 319,870 123,713 95,081 46,390 2,802 20,875 2000-01 Total Students White Non-Latino Latino Asian/ Pacific-Islander American Indian/ Alaska Native African-American Year
  22. 22. Six-County High School Graduation Trends (Headcount) (2000-2008) Source: High School Trends By County 1997-2008.doc., Enrollment Management Presentation .doc 1/18/00 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management By 2008, it is estimated that 18,204 HS Students will graduate, a 21.2% increase . 18,204 16,276 16,009 15,024 Totals 2.9% 525 2.9% 468 3.4% 545 3.3% 491 Tuolumne 36% 6,547 35.4% 5,767 35.1% 5,631 35% 5,219 Stanislaus 38% 7,043 39% 6,376 38% 6,090 38% 5,703 San Joaquin 18.4% 3,353 18.6% 3,042 19.3% 3,090 19.4% 2,912 Merced 1% 181 1% 158 1% 156 1.2% 174 Mariposa 3% 555 2.9% 465 3.1% 497 3.5% 525 Calaveras 2008 2005 2003 2000 County
  23. 23. Stanislaus County High Schools Academic Performance Index (API ) Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies
  24. 24. CSU, Stanislaus Degrees Conferred by Degree Type 1997/98 through 2001/02 Source: CSU Stanislaus Fact Book Fall 2002 BA 67.1% MSW 2.8% MA 3.4% BS 22.6% BM/BVE 0.2% MBA 1.8% MPA 0.9% MS 1.1%
  25. 25. Work Areas Reported by Alumni Survey, 2003 Source: CSU Stanislaus 2003 Undergraduate Alumni Survey Nursing, 3% Social Workers, 3% Technicians, 3% Clerical/Support, 6% Computer Programmers, 3% Accounting, 8% Law Enforcement, 3% Counseling, 2% Teachers, 39% Management, 14% Other, 14%
  26. 26. CSU, Stanislaus Final Summary of Economic Impacts Source: The Regional Impact of CSU, Stanislaus $ 193,496,047 2,037 Total Impact $ 70,800,692 1,006 Education Services $ 7,967,650 203 University Spending $ 59,972,655 488 Employee Spending $ 54,755,050 340 Student Spending Sales Jobs
  27. 27. The Outlook for College Grads 1998-2008 1998: US Unemployment 4.5% College Grads 1.9% HS Grads 4.9% College Graduate Median Earnings $41,000 HS Graduate Median Earnings $23,000 College “Value Added” 78% Primary source of growth will be in occupations that require a college degree PLUS specialized or professional training. Upgrading skills continues to fuel college enrollments. Jobs for college grads will grow: 28% Non-College level jobs: 11% Competition will remain keen for highest paying jobs... Source: Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Fall 2000
  28. 28. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupations with the largest job growth, 2002-2012 Bachelor Degree 18% 2425 2049 General & Ops Mgmt.* On-the-job 18% 2681 2267 Janitor and Cleaner On-the-job 13% 3886 3432 Cashier On-the-job 23% 2444 1990 Food Preparation On-the-job 24% 2354 1894 Customer Service On-the-job 15% 4672 4076 Retail Salesperson Doctoral Degree 38% 2184 1581 Postsecondary Teacher* Associate Degree 27% 2908 2284 Registered Nurse* Education or Training Change % 2012 (‘000s) 2002 (‘000s) Job
  29. 29. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Fastest growing occupations, 2002-2012 Bachelor Degree 46% 573 394 Software Engineer* On-the-job 46% 54 37 Physical Therapy Aide Associate Degree 47% 216 147 Medical Records* On-the-job 48% 859 580 Home Health Aide On-the-job 49% 454 305 Human Assistant Bachelor Degree 49% 94 63 Physician Assistant* Bachelor Degree 57% 292 186 Network Analyst* On-the-job 59% 579 365 Medical Assistant Education or Training Change % 2012 (‘000s) 2002 (‘000s) Job
  30. 30. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Fastest growing Industries, 2002-2012 3.9% 773.1 528.8 Internet Services* 3.9% 2,113.4 1,443.6 Health Care Services* 3.9% 1,866.6 1,269.3 Vocational Rehab Services* 4.4% 5,012.3 3,248.8 Employment Services 4.5% 1,797.7 1,162.7 Computer Systems Design* 4.5% 1,1077.6 695.3 Elder Care Facilities* 4.5% 1,137.4 731.8 Consulting Services 5.3% 429.7 256 Software Publishers* Annual Change % 2012 (‘000s) 2002 (‘000s) Industry
  31. 31. Source: Enrollment Services Updated 09/13/04 RLP
  32. 32. CSU, Stanislaus Enrollment Growth 1996-2004
  33. 33. No-Growth Scenario 2004-2010
  34. 34. Probable 3.5% Growth Scenario 2004-2010
  35. 35. Stretch 5.0% Growth Scenario 2004-2010
  36. 36. Master Planning Issues <ul><li>Current Campus Theoretical Maximums </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12,000 FTES </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>15,000 Student Headcount </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2 million sq. ft. of building space </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We are at approx. 50% of FTES Maximum </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Approx. 1 million sq. ft of building space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Science 2 will add 680 FTE and 857 Headcount to this estimate. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Current Projections suggest we will reach our maximum build out around 2020. </li></ul>
  37. 37. Conclusions <ul><li>Enrollment in 2010 likely at </li></ul><ul><ul><li>10,000 Student Headcount </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7,500 FTES </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Budgetary Pressures Continue </li></ul><ul><li>Increasingly Diverse Student Body </li></ul><ul><li>Two Fundamental Educational Issues </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Core Educational Mission to Address “Lag” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing pressure to address professional and specialized training needs </li></ul></ul>
  38. 38. Key Areas for Planning <ul><li>Students </li></ul><ul><li>Faculty </li></ul><ul><li>Facilities and Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Administration and Staffing </li></ul><ul><li>Academic Programs </li></ul><ul><li>Stockton Center </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>External Community </li></ul><ul><li>WASC </li></ul>
  39. 39. Students <ul><li>Quality </li></ul><ul><li>Diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Preparation </li></ul>
  40. 40. Stanislaus County High Schools Graduates Eligible for UC-CSU by Ethnicity – 2001-02 Source: Visioning Progress, Center for Public Policy Studies
  41. 41. CSU Stanislaus Freshmen Remediation Trends (Headcount) (Fall 1998 – 2003) Source: California State University Freshman Proficiency Report, January 28, 2003 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management N/A N/A 57.9 319 53.7 296 41.2 227 551 2003 88.0 277 60.8 315 49.9 262 38.7 203 525 2002 69.0 214 70.0 347 50.4 251 53.2 265 498 2001 58.0 214 71.2 367 53.7 277 56.3 290 515 2000 58.0 177 67.4 307 51.0 230 54.0 247 455 1999 42.0 117 69.0 278 43.3 174 57.8 232 401 1998 Remediation In One Year By Percent Total Completing Remediation In One Year Total in Remediation By Percent Total in Remediation English by Percent Needing English Remediation Math By Percent Needing Math Remediation Total Enrollment Fall/ Year
  42. 42. Faculty <ul><li>SFR </li></ul><ul><li>Workload </li></ul><ul><li>Projected Retirements & Replacements </li></ul>
  43. 43. CSU, Stanislaus Age Distribution of Faculty & Staff Source: CSU Office of the Chancellor 46.6 49.8 44.3 Average Age         704 283 421 Total         69 5 64 Under 30 117 52 65 30-39 218 80 138 40-49 229 96 133 50-59 68 47 21 60-69 3 3   70+ Total Faculty Staff  
  44. 44. Reported Student-Faculty Ratios by College Year Source: CSU Statistical Abstract to July 2002, page 260, Table 161 CSUS Office of Enrollment Management 19.26 19.11 19.12 19.32 Statewide 19.88 19.49 18.82 19.19 CSU Stanislaus 2001-02 2000-01 1999-00 1998-99 Campus
  45. 45. Facilities and Infrastructure <ul><li>Science II </li></ul><ul><li>Science I Retrofit </li></ul><ul><li>Yosemite Property </li></ul><ul><li>Parking & Public Safety </li></ul><ul><li>Large Public Meeting Space </li></ul>
  46. 46. Administration & Staffing <ul><li>Organizational Excellence </li></ul><ul><li>Internal Priorities </li></ul>
  47. 47. Academic Programs <ul><li>Generalist v. Niche </li></ul><ul><li>Graduate v. Undergraduate Mix </li></ul>
  48. 48. Graduate Enrollments Graduate enrollment comprises approximately 25% of our student headcount enrollments and an estimated 18% of the FTES. Comparison of Graduate School Headcount/FTES Date to University Totals 1998 to 2003 Source: CSUS Office of Enrollment Management 5,868 5,678 5,442 5,184 4,855 4,688 Total FTES 81.5% 4,780/ 81.1% 4,606 81% 4,408 82.3% 4,268 83.4% 4,051 84.8% 3,975 Undergraduate FTES 18.5% 1,088 18.9% 1,072 19% 1,034 17.7% 916 16.6% 804 15.2% 713 Grad FTES 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 FTES 8,069 7,850 7,534 7,062 6,489 6,351 Headcount Total 75.4% 6,081 74.7% 5,862 74.6% 5,624 75.8% 5,353 77.8% 5,048 78.6% 4,993 Undergrad. Headcount 24.6% 1,988 25.3% 1,988 25.4% 1,910 24.2% 1,709 22.2% 1,441 21.4% 1,358 Graduate Total 638 624 563 589 466 410 Unclassified Post-bacc. 669 679 783 649 580 579 Credentials 116 124 75 44 45 52 Master’s & Credentials 565 561 489 427 350 317 Master’s 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 Headcount
  49. 49. Academic Programs <ul><li>Stockton Campus </li></ul><ul><li>Off-Campus Sites </li></ul><ul><li>On-Line Courses </li></ul><ul><li>Distance Learning </li></ul>
  50. 50. Stockton Center Enrollments (1998-2003) Source: CSUS Office of Enrollment Management *Estimate 625* 612 598 532 490 451 CY FTE 543 530 539 452 Fall FTES 1,262 1,235 1,231 1,099 1046 1,036 Fall HC 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998
  51. 51. Technology <ul><li>Access </li></ul><ul><li>Reliability </li></ul><ul><li>Types of Services </li></ul><ul><li>Role in University’s Core Mission </li></ul>
  52. 52. External Community <ul><li>Fundamentally – Our relationship with our external stakeholders </li></ul><ul><li>Fund Raising </li></ul><ul><li>Support for Academic Programs </li></ul><ul><li>Scholarships and Endowments </li></ul><ul><li>Alumni </li></ul><ul><li>Recruitment </li></ul>
  53. 53. WASC <ul><li>Assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Re-Accreditation Issues </li></ul>

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