FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson Strategic Futures Coachi...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Admin. issues </li></ul><ul><li>Emergencies </li></ul><ul><li>Facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Phone...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA </li></ul><ul><li>9.30 What is strategic futures analysis?  </li></ul><ul><li>10.00  Intr...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA cont’d </li></ul><ul><li>11.45  Group activity: creating scenarios  </li></ul><ul><li>12....
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>What is Strategic Futures Analysis? </li></ul>
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Characteristics </li></ul><ul><li>Structured, evidence-based process </li></ul><ul><li>Wide rang...
… .resilient and innovative strategy Resilient and innovative strategic plans FUTURE GENERATION Future a  “ Safe place” fo...
Horizon scanning is…… Looking ahead  –  beyond usual timescales Looking across  –  beyond usual sources Seeing things  -  ...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>How to get relevant evidence (2) </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers of change: </li></ul><ul><li>Social <...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>How to get relevant evidence (3) </li></ul>V Importance (visibility) Time The lens of now the cu...
The journey <ul><li>Purpose and context </li></ul><ul><li>Senior sponsor </li></ul><ul><li>Gathering evidence </li></ul><u...
Combatting short-termism <ul><li>In order to combat the short-term nature of the political cycle, there is a need for hori...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>The UK Horizon Scanning Centre - Aims </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic context </li></ul><ul><li>Syne...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>UK Horizon Scanning Centre – Products </li></ul><ul><li>Sigma & Delta scans </li></ul><ul><li>Pr...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Analytical toolkit </li></ul><ul><li>Systems mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><...
FUTURE GENERATION Be realistic…
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Questions? </li></ul>
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA </li></ul><ul><li>9.30 What is strategic futures analysis?  </li></ul><ul><li>10.00  Intr...
<ul><li>Stories that describe how the world might look in the future </li></ul><ul><ul><li>what’s different from today </l...
Sector Environment internal environment   Contextual Environment Technological Economic Environmental Political Societal D...
Building  Scenarios…? FUTURE GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA </li></ul><ul><li>9.30 What is strategic futures analysis?  </li></ul><ul><li>10.00  Intr...
Sources… <ul><li>Leadership Foundation scenario workshops  </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Priorities for the UK (PMSU)  </li>...
Societal An empowered ageing population … and an ageing crisis Under 20s declining in the UK Rising expectations Rising at...
Mobile computing Lots of information Wireless cities Technological Changing work and work places Changing decision making ...
The economics of scarcity or of plenty?  Mobile investment Globalisation Labour mobility Increasing value of knowledge Imp...
Oil depletion Water Wars  Carbon neutral consumption Pressure to halt global warming Growth within environmental limits? Q...
Evolution of the EU Contract between state and citizen  e-Democracy Self improving public services Nanny state or light to...
FUTURE GENERATION FINAL DISCUSSION
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Understanding context of strategic futures analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Gathering evidence </li></...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Building scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Key drivers of change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><ul><li>Using scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Create dialogue </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Continue the futures  journey! </li></ul>Resources: Sigma scan: www.sigmascan.org Delta scan:  w...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management ...

659 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
659
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management ...

  1. 1. FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson Strategic Futures Coaching National Council for Higher Education Valletta, Malta 27 th July 2007 [email_address] Mob: +44(0)7786 180923
  2. 2. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Admin. issues </li></ul><ul><li>Emergencies </li></ul><ul><li>Facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Phones </li></ul>
  3. 3. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA </li></ul><ul><li>9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? </li></ul><ul><li>10.00 Introduction to scenario planning </li></ul><ul><li>10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? </li></ul><ul><li>11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education </li></ul><ul><li>11.30 Coffee </li></ul>
  4. 4. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA cont’d </li></ul><ul><li>11.45 Group activity: creating scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>12.30 LUNCH </li></ul><ul><li>13.15 Working with scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>14.00 The scenario toolkit </li></ul><ul><li>14.15 Closing discussion </li></ul><ul><li>14.30 Close </li></ul>
  5. 5. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>What is Strategic Futures Analysis? </li></ul>
  6. 6. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Characteristics </li></ul><ul><li>Structured, evidence-based process </li></ul><ul><li>Wide range of analytical tools </li></ul><ul><li>Resilient and innovative strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Neutral space for challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Encourages broader dialogue </li></ul>
  7. 7. … .resilient and innovative strategy Resilient and innovative strategic plans FUTURE GENERATION Future a “ Safe place” for challenging strategic conversation Prioritisation for business intelligence, Contingency trigger points Evidence and Analysis to….. Test strategic assumptions ID of priority uncertainties Core analysis on certainties
  8. 8. Horizon scanning is…… Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across – beyond usual sources Seeing things - you don’t normally see Beyond a single future to Implications for today’s decisions How to get relevant evidence (1) FUTURE GENERATION
  9. 9. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>How to get relevant evidence (2) </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers of change: </li></ul><ul><li>Social </li></ul><ul><li>Technological </li></ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental </li></ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul>
  10. 10. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>How to get relevant evidence (3) </li></ul>V Importance (visibility) Time The lens of now the current and near future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them Horizon 1: looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its exact form is not yet clear. We have to look harder to find the signals - but trends are beginning to emerge Horizon 2: the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult separate signals from background noise. Horizon 3:
  11. 11. The journey <ul><li>Purpose and context </li></ul><ul><li>Senior sponsor </li></ul><ul><li>Gathering evidence </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Decision support </li></ul>External input FUTURE GENERATION
  12. 12. Combatting short-termism <ul><li>In order to combat the short-term nature of the political cycle, there is a need for horizon scanning to be embedded into the policy making process </li></ul>UK House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee 2006 FUTURE GENERATION
  13. 13. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>The UK Horizon Scanning Centre - Aims </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic context </li></ul><ul><li>Synergy </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity building </li></ul><ul><li>WIST </li></ul>
  14. 14. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>UK Horizon Scanning Centre – Products </li></ul><ul><li>Sigma & Delta scans </li></ul><ul><li>Projects (S&T trends, ATF, Identity management) </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Futures Coaching </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Futures Networking (FAN Club) </li></ul>
  15. 15. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Analytical toolkit </li></ul><ul><li>Systems mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Wind-tunnelling </li></ul><ul><li>Force field analysis </li></ul>
  16. 16. FUTURE GENERATION Be realistic…
  17. 17. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Questions? </li></ul>
  18. 18. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA </li></ul><ul><li>9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? </li></ul><ul><li>10.00 Introduction to scenario planning </li></ul><ul><li>10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? </li></ul><ul><li>11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education </li></ul><ul><li>11.30 Coffee </li></ul>
  19. 19. <ul><li>Stories that describe how the world might look in the future </li></ul><ul><ul><li>what’s different from today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>what we need to do to be successful </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Based on an analysis of what’s driving change </li></ul><ul><li>Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated </li></ul><ul><li>Not predictions or forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Help decision makers imagine and manage the future better </li></ul><ul><ul><li>identify what’s in their control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>identify what isn’t </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>identify what needs to change to ensure future success </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world </li></ul>Scenarios…? FUTURE GENERATION
  20. 20. Sector Environment internal environment Contextual Environment Technological Economic Environmental Political Societal Driving Forces Driving Forces
  21. 21. Building Scenarios…? FUTURE GENERATION
  22. 22. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>AGENDA </li></ul><ul><li>9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? </li></ul><ul><li>10.00 Introduction to scenario planning </li></ul><ul><li>10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? </li></ul><ul><li>11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education </li></ul><ul><li>11.30 Coffee </li></ul>
  23. 23. Sources… <ul><li>Leadership Foundation scenario workshops </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Priorities for the UK (PMSU) </li></ul><ul><li>Long Term Opportunities and Challenges for the UK (HMT) </li></ul><ul><li>The Futures Project (Scottish Executive) </li></ul><ul><li>Empirical observation </li></ul>FUTURE GENERATION
  24. 24. Societal An empowered ageing population … and an ageing crisis Under 20s declining in the UK Rising expectations Rising attainment Emergence of the ethical economy More single households Global economic migration … and increasing in developing economies A widening gender gap
  25. 25. Mobile computing Lots of information Wireless cities Technological Changing work and work places Changing decision making Changing business models Rise of the technologically superior learner Skype Blogs You Tube AIM Second Life MySpace
  26. 26. The economics of scarcity or of plenty? Mobile investment Globalisation Labour mobility Increasing value of knowledge Importance of soft skills China Open source and distributed manufacturing Economic End of Doha? … and America Rising dependency ratio Slow or rapid transition to retirement Co-opetition
  27. 27. Oil depletion Water Wars Carbon neutral consumption Pressure to halt global warming Growth within environmental limits? Quest for sustainability Environmental Carbon credits? Right to mobility? Biofuels?
  28. 28. Evolution of the EU Contract between state and citizen e-Democracy Self improving public services Nanny state or light touch? Single Issue everything Policy divergence since devolution Rise of non state actors Step change in customer care Political Culture change Public service reform and competitiveness Competing demands
  29. 29. FUTURE GENERATION FINAL DISCUSSION
  30. 30. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Understanding context of strategic futures analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Gathering evidence </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis tools </li></ul><ul><li>Using the output to improve strategy </li></ul>
  31. 31. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Building scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Key drivers of change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Uncertainties </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Select key variables </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Write the stories </li></ul></ul></ul>
  32. 32. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><ul><li>Using scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Create dialogue </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Identify research goals </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Identify choices </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Define strategy </li></ul></ul></ul>
  33. 33. FUTURE GENERATION <ul><li>Continue the futures journey! </li></ul>Resources: Sigma scan: www.sigmascan.org Delta scan: www.deltascan.org UK Horizon scanning centre : www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/index.html Strategic futures analysis tool-kit : www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/Good_Practice/Toolkit/Toolkit.html UK Department for Transport scenario planning tool-kit (produced by Waverley Management consultants): www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/futures/secsceniss/?version=1

×