Educator Workforce
        Planning and
        Forecasting
National Association for Alternative Certification
         20...
“Spooner” or Planner
When it rains manna from heaven, some people put up an umbrella.
Others reach for a big spoon. 1

Tra...
Presentation Guide
   Workforce Focus on School Staffing
    • Planning
    • Forecasting
   Models
   Demand
   Suppl...
Strategic Workforce Planning
   (SWP): Long Definition
                                                             SWP
  ...
Strategic Workforce Planning
            (SWP)
Increasingly important to districts AND schools in response to a
        va...
SWP Short Definition for
  Schools and Districts?
 Getting     “IT” RIGHT
     • Right number of people with the right
  ...
Source: Building Successful Organizations Workforce Planning in HHS. 1999. USHSS. http://www.hhs.gov/ohr/workforce/wfpguid...
Basic Content: No

                   Surprises
    Public, non-profit and private organizations develop
    workforce pl...
Assess, Act and Lead
• Include evaluation design and process
  •   Assure workforce competency model remains valid and obj...
Workforce Planning
                     Blueprint




WORKFORCE PLANNING IN COMPLEX ORGANIZATIONS. 2004. RAND Corporation
Public Sector
         Difference
• Public sector agencies address
 federal and state employment and
 employ relations req...
Source: Building Successful Organizations Workforce Planning in HHS. 1999. USHSS. http://www.hhs.gov/ohr/workforce/wfpguid...
Educator Workforce
   Planning and
Forecasting Model in
      Georgia
Workforce Planning
           Questions
   What are the characteristics and distribution we will need?

   What critical...
Education Workforce
         Planning
Comprehensive process that provides district
 managers and school leaders with a
 fr...
Location(s)
                                                               Work Assignment(s)
                            ...
Educator Inventory
   Inventorying the current distribution of teachers, student
    services personnel and administrator...
Competency Planning
           Model
            Helps to bridge the gap
Now and where organization wants to be in
       ...
Competency Planning
          Model
• Creates map to display a set of competencies
   •Aligned with an organization’s miss...
Workforce Forecasting
   Business and the people who work today are less
    predictable, more global, demographically di...
Shaping the Forecast
   Segment jobs in school staffing
    • Strategic
    • Core        •Forecast and plan first for th...
The Supply Factor
Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006
Public School Workforce: (Attrition years 1990 –
                    2004)
        ...
Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006
                 Public School Workforce: (Attrition years
                        ...
Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006
    Public School Workforce: (Attrition years
                  1990 – 2004)
For an...
Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006 Public
                         School Workforce:
                    (Attrition ye...
Note the Contribution of
                                                                                      Alternate R...
Newly Hired Teachers,
                              FY06
  12,949 new teachers were hired in FY06, a 10.7% increase over F...
Sources of Teacher Hires,
             FY06
                                                                              ...
Top Georgia Higher
Education Producers of New
      Teachers, FY06
   University of Georgia (13.6%)
   University of Wes...
Competency Planning
        Model
• Provides management and staff with common
  understanding

    • Competency set and be...
Identifying
             Competencies
• Competencies are developed based on information
  collected by studying what top p...
Identifying
              Competencies
    Workforce analysis process spans workforce
     Supply and Demand analysis aspe...
Planning and Forecasting
            Assumptions
Workforce planning focuses on outputs from the planning
more than on the ...
Planning and Forecasting
                Assumptions
   Training, coaching, technical assistance, and other support will
...
The Demand Factor
Georgia’s Educator
                           Workforce, FY06
                      135,000
                      130,000 ...
Student Enrollment
                     2,000,000                         Projections                                     ...
How Many New Babies?
Who is Having Them and
        When??
Year Recorded/Projected          Actual/Projected Live births
 ...
Student Ethnic
Distribution, FY07  American Indian/
                                        Asian, Pacific
               ...
Teacher Ethnic
Distribution, FY07
                  American Indian, 0.1%                    Asian, 0.6%

                ...
Experience Groups of
Teachers
            40

            30                                                          The ...
Age Groups (using Georgia Certified
Personnel Information Report and Date of
Birth) and Teaching Experience groups (based
...
Aging of the Teacher
      Workforce, FY99-FY06
• With an increase in the                           4,000

average and new...
Fundamentals:
Planning and
Forecasting
Location(s)
                                                                  Work Assignment(s)
                         ...
Problems in Human Resource Plan
      Schools and Districts
    Mathematic and data complexities in computing educator pe...
Problems in Human Resource Plans
       Schools and Districts
     Must be updated frequently in states, districts and sc...
A Good SWOT is a Great
          Beginning
           Strengths                       Opportunities
Internal              ...
Can you ANNUALLY and OVER TIME show
    and/or predict where you get your
  In- and Out-of-state veteran and new
         ...
Students are the only reason that we need
teachers and administrators. Students
determine how many purchased copies print ...
Inventory Distribution
   Results:          Future
     Educator Workforce
Change Over Time or Exponentially
• Managerial ...
Inventory Distribution
      Results:          Future
        Educator Workforce
    Change Over Time or Exponentially
•  ...
School Staffing and IBM
    IBM has set out to recreate itself as a globally integrated and
    high performing enterpris...
School Staffing Plan:
        Communication and Continuous
                Evaluation

   Communication plan must be care...
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Educator Workforce Planning and Forecasting

  1. 1. Educator Workforce Planning and Forecasting National Association for Alternative Certification 2007 Pre-conference Seminar Facilitators: Dr. Cyndy Stephens, Director Division for Educator Workforce Research and Development (EWRRAD) Georgia Professional Standards Commission Dr. Tom Hall, Director of Special Projects Georgia Professional Standards Commission Dr. Winifred Nweke, Coordinator of Research and Evaluation Division for Educator Workforce Research and Development (EWRRAD) Georgia Professional Standards Commission April 3, 2007
  2. 2. “Spooner” or Planner When it rains manna from heaven, some people put up an umbrella. Others reach for a big spoon. 1 Traditionally HR is seen as running for the umbrella. No matter what happens, we’ll keep doing what we do the way we’ve always done it. This is no longer true in many leading organizations. A truly modern HR department is constantly evaluating the workforce and applying its strategies. Every change in the business of education should be seen as an opportunity for HR to act. Whether it’s a new product, organization, or a shift in strategy, the workforce is not only impacted – the workforce impacts. When change comes your way, don’t run. Participate in change and participate in strategy. Get yourself a seat at the proverbial table. Drucker, Peter F. “The Daily Drucker.” HarperCollins, 2004. Page 76
  3. 3. Presentation Guide  Workforce Focus on School Staffing • Planning • Forecasting  Models  Demand  Supply  Policy  Discussion
  4. 4. Strategic Workforce Planning (SWP): Long Definition SWP Analytic, Planning and Forecasting process that connects and directs talent management activities to ensure an organization has the right people in the right places at the right time and at the right price to execute its business strategy “The Business of Schools” “The School Business” Strategic Workforce Planning: Forecasting Human Capital Needs to Execute Business Strategy. Published By: The Conference Board September 2006. Report Code: #CB-1391
  5. 5. Strategic Workforce Planning (SWP) Increasingly important to districts AND schools in response to a variety of factors including these SWP Drivers : The aging workforce and approaching retirement wave Current and projected labor shortages Globalization Growing use of a contingent, flexible workforce The need to leverage human capital to enhance return System and school level mergers/expansions/special status (Charter Schools), privatization, school “take-overs”, etc. Evolution of technology and tools to aid teaching or in fact, teach Source: Strategic Workforce Planning: Forecasting Human Capital Needs to Execute Business Strategy. Published By: The Conference Board September 2006. Report Code: #CB-1391
  6. 6. SWP Short Definition for Schools and Districts?  Getting “IT” RIGHT • Right number of people with the right skills, experiences, competencies and values in the right jobs at the right time at the right schools and districts in all schools and districts… •And at the Right Price? 1.
  7. 7. Source: Building Successful Organizations Workforce Planning in HHS. 1999. USHSS. http://www.hhs.gov/ohr/workforce/wfpguide.html. hhs.1999..
  8. 8. Basic Content: No  Surprises Public, non-profit and private organizations develop workforce planning models: • Contain similar in concept and content • Have differing terminology • Rely on analysis of present workforce competencies • Identify competencies needed in the future • Compare present workforce to future needs • Identify competency gaps and surpluses • Prepare plans for building the workforce needed in future
  9. 9. Assess, Act and Lead • Include evaluation design and process • Assure workforce competency model remains valid and objectives are met • Requires strong management leadership • Clearly articulated vision, mission, and strategic objectives • Cooperative supportive efforts of staff in several functional areas • In the Federal sector…Strategic planning (GPRA), budget, and human resources are key players in workforce planning • GPRA plans set organizational direction and articulate measurable program goals and objectives. The budget process plans for the funding to achieve objectives. Human resources provides tools for identifying competencies needed in the workforce and for recruiting, developing, training, retraining, or placing employees to build the future workforce
  10. 10. Workforce Planning Blueprint WORKFORCE PLANNING IN COMPLEX ORGANIZATIONS. 2004. RAND Corporation
  11. 11. Public Sector Difference • Public sector agencies address federal and state employment and employ relations requirements in addition to agency planning and forecasting needs • NCLB Title IIA Teacher Equity • Staff Performance Accountability
  12. 12. Source: Building Successful Organizations Workforce Planning in HHS. 1999. USHSS. http://www.hhs.gov/ohr/workforce/wfpguide.html. hhs.1999..
  13. 13. Educator Workforce Planning and Forecasting Model in Georgia
  14. 14. Workforce Planning Questions  What are the characteristics and distribution we will need?  What critical characteristics and distribution in educators and students do we have today?  What critical characteristics and distribution will we have if we do nothing different?  What actions will close the gap?
  15. 15. Education Workforce Planning Comprehensive process that provides district managers and school leaders with a framework for staffing decisions based on organizational • Mission • Strategic plan • Budgetary resources • Desired workforce competencies and values
  16. 16. Location(s) Work Assignment(s) Buy SmartDraw!- purchased copies print this Responsibilities a watermark . document without Job Visit www.smartdraw.com or call 1-800-768-3729. Source: EWRRAD.GA Professional Standards Commission, 2007
  17. 17. Educator Inventory  Inventorying the current distribution of teachers, student services personnel and administrators provides foundation for building a future workforce Must also inventory employees’ Flexibility for Assignments Competencies Skills Knowledge “Fit” for the Context of the Credentials Assignments Dispositions Performance Quantity Quantity of Teachers needed for Assignments and Context
  18. 18. Competency Planning Model Helps to bridge the gap Now and where organization wants to be in The Future • Serves two ways to guide management decision making • Support mission, vision, and goals • Map to guide employees toward achieving mission Overall organization Specific functional area
  19. 19. Competency Planning Model • Creates map to display a set of competencies •Aligned with an organization’s mission, vision, and strategic goals •Future-oriented, describing an ideal workforce •Competencies in the model serve as basis for employee management •Play a key role in decisions •Recruiting •Employee development •Personal development •Performance management
  20. 20. Workforce Forecasting  Business and the people who work today are less predictable, more global, demographically diverse, highly competitive  Having the right people in the right jobs and places is critical for industries with shortages  An understanding of workforce dynamics shows how to meet staffing needs and how to manage proactively to ensure that goals are met  Forecasting is the planning tool to yield long-term results Hirschman, C.. 2007. Putting Forecasting into Focus. HR Magazine. February
  21. 21. Shaping the Forecast  Segment jobs in school staffing • Strategic • Core •Forecast and plan first for the jobs that affect execution of the organization most strategy • Requisite and goal attainment • Non-core •Forecast and plan next for the jobs that are most affected by successful or unsuccessful execution of the organization strategy and goal attainment
  22. 22. The Supply Factor
  23. 23. Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006 Public School Workforce: (Attrition years 1990 – 2004) Counts of Teachers Returning by Year (Counts Only the Year of their First Re-Entry) Base Teacher Year Attrition +2 Yrs +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14 +15 +16 1990 4533 558 290 131 98 65 60 35 54 52 59 54 32 28 21 46 1991 4472 498 190 132 82 99 64 51 58 53 34 39 28 24 42 1992 4190 383 194 102 80 62 55 67 60 40 43 22 24 46 1993 4282 451 174 119 94 98 59 71 69 55 22 29 39 1994 4478 481 211 132 91 83 86 79 55 40 27 43 1995 4719 472 197 142 112 104 98 58 54 48 44 1996 5455 678 250 187 140 103 87 68 60 61 1997 4474 460 221 159 120 129 67 60 46 1998 5806 605 316 205 126 111 81 94 1999 5827 558 273 164 115 105 90 2000 7417 792 449 263 169 155 2001 7084 772 408 225 185 2002 7503 790 401 264 2003 8288 960 472 2004 8363 962 Returns in School Year 2006
  24. 24. Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006 Public School Workforce: (Attrition years 1990 – 2004) Percentage of Teachers Returning by Year (Counts Only the Year of their First Re-Entry) +2 Yrs +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14 +15 +16 1990 4533 12.3% 6.4% 2.9% 2.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 1991 4472 11.1% 4.2% 3.0% 1.8% 2.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 1992 4190 9.1% 4.6% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 1993 4282 10.5% 4.1% 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1994 4478 10.7% 4.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 1995 4719 10.0% 4.2% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1996 5455 12.4% 4.6% 3.4% 2.6% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1997 4474 10.3% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 2.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1998 5806 10.4% 5.4% 3.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1999 5827 9.6% 4.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 2000 7417 10.7% 6.1% 3.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2001 7084 10.9% 5.8% 3.2% 2.6% 2002 7503 10.5% 5.3% 3.5% 2003 8288 11.6% 5.7% 2004 8363 11.5% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean Percentages 10.8% 5.1% 3.1% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% (Probability Estimates)
  25. 25. Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006 Public School Workforce: (Attrition years 1990 – 2004) For any particular year, the current best formula which estimates the minimum number of returning teachers R from the most recently available 10 years of attrition is: R = .108A2 + .051A3 + .031A4 + .022A5 + .020A6 + .015A7 + .014A8 + .013A9 + .011A10 + .009A11 where A2 is the attrition count 2 years ago, A3 is the attrition count 3 years ago, etc. Example for 2007: R = .108*(8220) + .051*(8363) + .031*(8288) + .022*(7503) + .020*(7084) + .015*(7417) + .014*(5827) + .013*(5806) + .011*(4474) + .009*(5455) R = 2244
  26. 26. Georgia Teacher Re-entry into the 2006 Public School Workforce: (Attrition years 1990 – 2004) Probability of Teachers Returning after Leaving the GA Public School Workforce (1990 - 2006) 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% PR(AY) = Probability of Returning from Attrition in Year Y (Observed) 6.0% Approximation Function R=.1/(Y-1) where R is the probability of 4.0% returning after leaving Y years ago 2.0% 0.0% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
  27. 27. Note the Contribution of Alternate Route Supply in Critical Areas Comparison of Sources of Newly Hired Teachers by Workforce Category (2006) 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% Returning Teachers GA IHE's 20.0% Alternate Routes 15.0% Out of State 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% L 5 n n ol l 8 na n PE O 1- rte t io 6- ho t io ES tio en em ga s Sc ca d de ca an rv er du El h ra Vo te nd g ic E G In Hi us Ki al e rly M i dl ec Ea id t, Sp Ar M
  28. 28. Newly Hired Teachers, FY06 12,949 new teachers were hired in FY06, a 10.7% increase over FY05’s 11,697 new hires. 9,748 of the new hires replaced the number lost to attrition from the classroom, while 3,201 were hired to meet the growth demand. 14,000 5,501 12,000 3,880 3,201 3,222 2,089 1,495 10,000 Number of Teachers 2,710 9,608 9,748 9,434 8,000 8,595 8,627 8,303 7,466 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 "Replacem ent" Hires "Growth" Hires
  29. 29. Sources of Teacher Hires, FY06 The Non-Lateral proportion of Transfers, 2.7% Delayed Entry, 2.6% traditionally prepared new Returning, 20.9% teacher hires supplied by Georgia Georgia depends on Georgia Traditional colleges out-of- Out-of-state, 28.3% Educator decreased state Preparation, 23.5% slightly from sources for more than Alternative 24.1% in Certification, 22.0% FY05 to one-fourth 23.5% in of its new FY06. teacher hires. A rising proportion of new teacher hires are prepared through alternative routes, reaching 22% in FY06, up 2.5% from FY05.
  30. 30. Top Georgia Higher Education Producers of New Teachers, FY06  University of Georgia (13.6%)  University of West Georgia (8.9%)  Valdosta State University (8.6%)  Georgia State University (8.6%)  Kennesaw State University (7.2%)  Georgia Southern University (6.9%)  Mercer University (6.3%)
  31. 31. Competency Planning Model • Provides management and staff with common understanding • Competency set and behaviors important to the organization • Well-developed and documented competency models are basis for organizational, training and development activities and for identifying competencies sought in new recruits
  32. 32. Identifying Competencies • Competencies are developed based on information collected by studying what top performers do in the defined job context • Competencies focus on attributes that separate high performers from others in the workforce •Employee questionnaires, focus groups, and interviews with managers and employees provide data
  33. 33. Identifying Competencies Workforce analysis process spans workforce Supply and Demand analysis aspects of planning • Competencies are identified using key elements Workforce skills analysis describes skills required to carry out a function Skills Analysis requires leaders to anticipate how the nature of work in schools and school systems will change • Leaders and workers at all levels identify future human resource requirements based on
  34. 34. Planning and Forecasting Assumptions Workforce planning focuses on outputs from the planning more than on the process itself. Output results from adapting models, strategies, tools and processes to organizational environment and needs  Concentration on planning outputs …organizationally meaningful to support program objectives, budget requests, staffing needs, and strategic plans  Workforce planning is an inclusive process, drawing together program management, budget, strategic planning, human resources, and program staff and working in partnerships
  35. 35. Planning and Forecasting Assumptions  Training, coaching, technical assistance, and other support will be required as leaders and teachers prepare to use / adapt models, strategies, and tools to meet objectives in a strategic staffing plan  The capacity to do effective workforce planning is developed over time • Critical to begin carefully and to validate analysis at each step. States, districts and schools should begin with a subset of the workforce [Teachers] and extend planning as skills and experience develop  Educator workforce planning and forecasting processes maintain constant links to program, budget, and organization strategic planning to assure that the products achieve teacher staffing immediate and future needs
  36. 36. The Demand Factor
  37. 37. Georgia’s Educator Workforce, FY06 135,000 130,000 129,032 Number of Educators 125,000 124,979 122,439 120,000 120,773 116,292 115,000 110,000 110,784 105,000 100,000 95,000 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 School Year Georgia’s total educator workforce rose to 129,032, an increase of 3.2% from the 124,979 in FY05.
  38. 38. Student Enrollment 2,000,000 Projections •Enrollment 1,900,000 1,880,395 will likely be close to the 1,829,059 1,800,000 1,779,000 projection, and Enrollment it is unlikely Number of Students Upper 95% CI 1,730,652 1,700,000 Projected 1,684,498 that actual Lower 95% CI 1,641,047 enrollment will 1,600,000 1,598,461 be above or 1,553,437 below the 1,500,000 1,522,611 1,496,012 confidence 1,470,634 1,444,937 limits. 1,422,941 1,400,000 1,401,291 1,375,980 •Student 1,300,000 1,346,761 1,311,126 enrollment has 1,270,948 continued to 1,200,000 rise slightly more each year FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Enrollment 1,270,948 1,311,126 1,346,761 1,375,980 1,401,291 1,422,9411,444,9371,470,634 1,496,012 1,522,611 1,553,437 1,598,461 Upper 95%CI Project ed 1,679,6471,724,444 1,772,084 1,822,0441,873,823 1,926,979 1,277,704 1,319,410 1,353,928 1,382,6881,407,444 1,430,070 1,452,370 1,475,902 1,501,884 1,531,135 1,564,074 1,600,779 1,641,047 1,684,498 1,730,652 1,779,000 1,829,059 1,880,395 since FY00. Lower 95%CI 1,602,447 1,644,552 1,689,220 1,735,958 1,784,295 1,833,811 School Year
  39. 39. How Many New Babies? Who is Having Them and When?? Year Recorded/Projected Actual/Projected Live births 2005 139735 2006 142018 2007 144301 2008 146585 2009 148868 2010 151152 2011 153435 2012 155719 2013 158002 2014 160286 2015 162569 2016 164853
  40. 40. Student Ethnic Distribution, FY07 American Indian/ Asian, Pacific Alaskan Native Islander 0.1% 2.9% White Black 46.9% 38.1% Hispanic 9.2% Multi-racial 2.7%
  41. 41. Teacher Ethnic Distribution, FY07 American Indian, 0.1% Asian, 0.6% Hispanic, 1.1% Black, 22.0% White, 75.9% Multiracial, 0.2% American Indian Asian Black Hispanic Multiracial White
  42. 42. Experience Groups of Teachers 40 30 The decline in the number of teachers with Percent 20 0-4 years of experience from 28.5% in FY05 to 10 23.2% in FY06 and the rise in the percentage of 0 teachers in 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 5-14 and over 30 years 30+ experience groups may years years years years years years be partly the function of FY03 29.2 21.7 15.0 12.1 10.8 8.2 3.1 older new teachers coming into the FY04 29.2 21.3 15.3 11.8 10.5 8.3 3.5 workforce as Georgia FY05 28.5 21.9 15.6 11.9 9.9 8.5 3.7 returning or veteran, veteran teachers coming FY06 23.2 23.5 17.2 12.2 9.8 8.8 5.3 from in- and out-of-state Experience Groups and/or retired teachers returning to work.
  43. 43. Age Groups (using Georgia Certified Personnel Information Report and Date of Birth) and Teaching Experience groups (based on Teacher Retirement System [TRS] data) Teaching Experience Groupings 9.6- 0-4.5 4.6-9.5 14.5 14.6-19.5 19.6-24.5 24.6-29.5 29.6 and over Total* Age Groupin gs 7 6 0 0 1 0 0 14 44 or Younger 26966 19874 9740 4582 1100 5 2 62269 45-49 2437 2903 2377 2364 2507 1178 4 13770 50-59 3186 4137 4096 4760 3462 4157 1722 25520 60 and older 525 652 579 828 640 445 282 3951 Total 33121 27572 16792 12534 7710 5785 2010 105524
  44. 44. Aging of the Teacher Workforce, FY99-FY06 • With an increase in the 4,000 average and new hire ages of teachers, an increasing 3,500 proportion of teachers may FY99 annually leave the classroom 3,000 FY06 , requiring replacement. Number of Teachers • There is a pronounced 2,500 bimodal (two group) distribution of age within 2,000 the teacher ranks, the younger with a modal age 1,500 of 29 in FY99, and an older group with a modal 1,000 age of 49 that year. The distribution in FY06 has 500 shifted substantially, with the two modes occurring at ages 36 and 52, 0 <24 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 >70 respectively. Age
  45. 45. Fundamentals: Planning and Forecasting
  46. 46. Location(s) Work Assignment(s) Buy SmartDraw!- purchased copies print this Responsibilitieswatermark . document without a Job Visit www.smartdraw.com or call 1-800-768-3729. Source: EWRRAD.GA Professional Standards Commission, 2007
  47. 47. Problems in Human Resource Plan Schools and Districts  Mathematic and data complexities in computing educator personnel  Data volume, points, collection, ownership and comparability and reporting  Lack of certainty about school human resource needs for the future  Unknown acquisition “lead time” in recruiting and training for meeting new hire and placement needs and for promoting or shifting existing personnel • “Acquisition lead times have become more of a problem in recent years because of the needs for more highly skilled (leadership and classroom professional) personnel. Since this trend is expected to continue in future years, the problem of acquisition lead time creates difficulties for most organizations (schools and districts)…” Source: http://ww..tamiu.edu/coba/faculty/kohl/book/3.html
  48. 48. Problems in Human Resource Plans Schools and Districts  Must be updated frequently in states, districts and schools…in which greater uncertainties exist • High need, AYP, geographically hard-to-staff, under-representation in faculty demographics, etc. • Most schools and districts are growing and increasingly complex • Require more sophisticated approaches to workforce planning when policies are far removed from the action site • Interdependencies have increased for funding, staffing, preparation, accountability, etc. • Needed personnel in the traditional teaching and candidate force are in short and shortening supply • Many planning models have ignored the “real life” side of equitable staffing in schools for high quality, high performing and long-staying teachers and leaders Source: http://ww..tamiu.edu/coba/faculty/kohl/book/3.html
  49. 49. A Good SWOT is a Great Beginning Strengths Opportunities Internal External Weaknesses Threats SWOTS tell us what/who we have, need, might do and might not want to do Buy SmartDraw !- purchased copies print this document without a watermark . Visit www .smartdraw .com or call 1-800-768-3729.
  50. 50. Can you ANNUALLY and OVER TIME show and/or predict where you get your In- and Out-of-state veteran and new teachers? Forecasting recruitment from the wrong sources begets new forecasts, poorly spent resources and without a watermark . this Buy SmartDraw!- purchased copies print document unfilled classrooms Visit www.smartdraw.com or call 1-800-768-3729.
  51. 51. Students are the only reason that we need teachers and administrators. Students determine how many purchased copies print this Buy SmartDraw !- and what kind of document without a watermark . teachers we need from yearcall 1-800-768-3729. Visit www .smartdraw .com or to year
  52. 52. Inventory Distribution Results: Future Educator Workforce Change Over Time or Exponentially • Managerial Actions • New Superintendent brings priority changes • New state/local executives/policy makers change focus • Employee Decisions • Teachers stay longer/leave earlier • Administrators leave high need schools for more affluent ones • School “churn” leaves opening in hardest-to-staff schools
  53. 53. Inventory Distribution Results: Future Educator Workforce Change Over Time or Exponentially • Policy Changes • Class Size Reduction/Flexibility/Expansion • Technology infusion in classroom instruction and administrative functions • New local/state/national curriculum/performance/accountability/budget/student services mandates • Shifts in Demand and Supply Factors • Student enrollment grows/slows exponentially or over time trend • Student academic performance/learning needs/strengths shift • Attrition significantly heightens/lessens • Teacher production slows/grows in areas needed/not needed
  54. 54. School Staffing and IBM  IBM has set out to recreate itself as a globally integrated and high performing enterprise that broke away from the pack on the strength of its human capital, not solely on its portfolio of products  Many school districts experience difficulties attracting and retaining teachers, and the impending retirement of a substantial fraction of public school teachers raises the specter of severe shortages in some public schools. Schools in urban areas serving economically disadvantaged and minority students appear particularly vulnerable. Source: IBM’s HR Takes a Risk. 2007. HR Magazine. SHRM. So0urce: Why public schools lose teachers.” A. Hanushek, JF Kain, SG Rivkin - Journal of Human Resources
  55. 55. School Staffing Plan: Communication and Continuous Evaluation  Communication plan must be carefully planned and executed for formal and informal networks • Inside and outside of state, district and schools • To all employee levels and job types  Continuous evaluation of the plan, forecasted data and progress toward school staffing objectives informs both the immediate and the next teacher recruitment, training, placement, support decisions and retention decisions  Success puts the most qualified teachers with all students in all districts in all schools in a state and nation

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