Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

November 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

1,698 views

Published on

October saw the labor market return to form after a two-month slowdown, adding 271,000 net new jobs across industries, in turn bringing down unemployment to 5 percent, the lowest rate seen during the recovery so far.

Notable over the past few months has been a rise in wages in an otherwise low-inflation environment, which will boost the personal expenditures component of GDP in the coming quarters.

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

November 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

  1. 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 Labor market back on track, fueling chances of interest rate hike U.S. employment situation: October 2015 November 6, 2015
  2. 2. October 2015 employment summary • After two months of underperformance, the labor market headed back into growth mode with 271,000 net new jobs. This was the highest monthly total over the course of 2015 and brought the year-to-date job creation total to 2.1 million. Performance at this level could trigger an interest rate hike by year-end as the economy continues to approach the Federal Reserve’s targets. - A labor shortage will likely lead to further wage growth in a low-inflation environment (the consumer price index has seen no growth over the year), boosting spending and, in turn, GDP growth. Hourly wages are up 2.5 percent across the private sector, with this figure rising to 3.0 percent for professional and business services. In both cases, wage growth is surpassing job creation, another sign that workers are in the position to benefit. • The official unemployment rate nationally declined to 5 percent, while white-collar unemployment stayed stable at just 2.5 percent. Total unemployment fell to 9.8 percent. In September, the civilian labor force contracted by 350,000 and participation declined to 62.4 percent; combined with relatively sustained growth elsewhere, which helped to push down the unemployment rate. - With the official unemployment rate set to enter the upper-4s by year-end and skilled employment near “full” levels, gains may begin to slow as corporates have a smaller latent talent pool to pick from, boosting wages even more and likely increased the rate of quits. • Office-using industries contributed to 30.3 percent of monthly gains, although in net terms they added 82,000 new jobs as PBS saw a very strong rebound in October. Organic growth in health, leisure, construction, education and trade all aided the economy’s improved performance. • At the market level, Silicon Valley and San Francisco remain powerhouses, with total non-farm employment up 4.8 and 4.7 percent over the year, respectively. Similarly, tech hubs such as Portland, Seattle and Austin are posting additions ranging from 3.2 to 4.8 percent. Even in slower-growth Midwestern and Northeastern markets such as Chicago, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Milwaukee, gains total 0.9 percent or greater. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  3. 3. October 2015 labor market at a glance +271,000 (61 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,814,000 (+2.0 y-o-y) 12-month change +793,000 10-year average annual growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5.0% Unemployment rate -70bp 12-month change in unemployment 7.0% 10-year average unemployment 5,370,000 (+11.1% y-o-y) Job openings 5,078,000 (-7.1% y-o-y) Hires 2,741,000 (-0.1% y-o-y) Quits
  4. 4. 271,000 new jobs in October brings monthly additions back after a slowdown over the past two months 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 166,000 188,000 225,000 330,000 236,000 286,000 249,000 213,000 250,000 221,000 423,000 329,000 201,000 266,000 119,000 221,000 260,000 245,000 223,000 153,000 137,000 271,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 1-monthnetchange 4 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  5. 5. Unemployment continues to slowly fall due to incremental gains; down 10 basis points to 5 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
  6. 6. Job openings dipped slightly to 5.4 million, but remain near cyclical highs as companies seek to expand Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jobopenings(thousands)
  7. 7. 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Consumerconfidenceindex The consumer confidence continues to remain hovering around 100; flatlining mirrors temporary slowdown in market Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
  8. 8. Slowly accelerating wage growth combined with near-zero increase in consumer price index will likely boost GDP Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 12-month%change Hourly wage growth CPI growth
  9. 9. -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 -1.0 -0.3 0.0 1.2 3.0 3.0 5.0 9.7 10.0 24.5 31.0 41.0 43.8 56.7 57.0 78.0 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mining and logging Durable goods Transportation and warehousing Information Utilities Manufacturing Motor vehicles and parts Nondurable goods Government Financial activities Wholesale trade Other services Temporary help services Construction Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Health care and social assistance Education and health services Professional and business services 1-month net change (thousands) PBS and retail trade bounced back to contribute 45 percent of new jobs in October Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 PBS Education and health Retail trade All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 66.0 percent of monthly growth.
  10. 10. Strength in the construction sector brought goods-producing employment growth back into positive territory -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Goods-producing Service-providing Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10
  11. 11. -108.0 12.0 35.0 45.0 46.0 46.9 66.0 77.2 80.0 105.0 116.2 122.0 147.0 233.0 313.4 433.0 606.2 623.0 664.0 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Mining and logging Utilities Nondurable goods Durable goods Information Motor vehicles and parts Other services Wholesale trade Manufacturing Government Temporary help services Transportation and warehousing Financial activities Construction Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Education and health services Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) PBS Education and health Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Financial activities Manufacturing All other jobs The high-growth education and health subsector is approaching PBS as the largest annual driver of job creation Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 Core subsectors added 80.3 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  12. 12. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Unemployment(%) Bachelor’s degree-holder unemployment is stable at 2.5 percent; talent shortage occurring in many markets Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 12
  13. 13. Office-using job growth returned to normal in October, but low unemployment for skilled workers may hamper future gains -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Information Professional and business services Financial activities Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13
  14. 14. Tech spends another month growing at 6 percent, while falling prices and uncertainty continue to lead to energy job losses -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through July 2015. 14 12-month%change(jobs)
  15. 15. Tech’s growth of 6 percent occurring across geographies as the industry attempts to mitigate a talent shortage Year-on-year percent employment growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15
  16. 16. Typical weekly claims are now nearing the 250,000 mark, and are at previous lows Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 16 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  17. 17. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hiresandquits(thousands) Hires Quits Hires are up 7.1 percent year-over-year, 3.4 times the rate of overall job growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  18. 18. Tech hubs remain dominant and comprise most markets with significant employment gains over the past year Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 Silicon Valley 4.8% San Francisco 4.7% Dallas 3.0% Seattle 3.3% Austin 3.2% Salt Lake City 3.7% Charlotte 3.2%
  19. 19. Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still growing slower, but have seen a small bump of late 19 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Richmond -0.1% Philadelphia 0.9% Chicago 0.9% Milwaukee 1.1% St. Louis 1.2%
  20. 20. For the first time since the recession, total unemployment’s in the single digits at 9.8 percent 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20
  21. 21. The labor force participation rate remained at its low of 62.4 percent in October Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 21 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  22. 22. ©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.

×