John Cronin's college triggers presentation at NWEA's October 16 New York summit

1. Hidden Triggers: Propelling Low Income
Students into College and Careers
John Cronin, Ph.D.
Vice President of Education Research
NWEA

2. NWEA:
•Is not-for-profit
•Assesses 8 million students K-12 in the U.S. and across more
than 30 countries.
•Offers adaptive assessments, that are fair and engaging to
students, and meets them where they are.
•Provides efficient and timely data that informs instruction.
•Measure student progress over time, and provides useful
projections about future performance.

3. Is college readiness really
the goal?

4. 96% of minority parents and
92% of minority students
believe that college
completion is very important.
Source – 2004 United Negro
College Fund Survey
College readiness aligns with parent and
student aspirations

5. • College completion grew from
25% to 41% between 1980 and
2014.
• College completion rates for
traditionally disadvantaged
minorities doubled.
• The proportion of women
completing college exceeds the
proportion of men and the gap is
growing.
Who is completing college?

6. The hidden “Triggers”
• Preparing for an upwardly mobile
career.
• Getting and keeping academics on
track.
• Maximizing the probability of
graduation (high school, career
training, college).

7. Preparing for an upwardly
mobile career

8. Kids from high income families less
often choose career focused majors

9. Source: Kim Weeden, National Center for Educational Statistics
Kids from high income families choose
career oriented majors less often.

10. Source – U.S. Department of Labor, National Longitudinal Survey 1979-2010
Graph is reference from Money Matters, National Public Radio, March 19, 2014
What
car eer s
cont r i but e
t o upwar d
and
downwar d
mobi l i t y?

11. Col l ege maj or by SAT
scor e
Bubble size indicates relative
number of students intending
to pursue a this major

12. Being prepared

13. Predictive variables measure four constructs
Test scores
College
aspirations &
expectations
SES
Teacher
perceptions of
student readiness

14. Teachers are good at
• Assessing work habits
• Assessing general academic readiness
• Assessing attitude toward school

15. Teachers are good at
dropout prediction
Dropout Prediction Teacher Model
% Correct 82 88
% Incorrect 11 12
Unsure 7

16. But teachers greatly under-
predict the likelihood of college
attendance
Ethnic Group Correct Incorrect Go Incorrect Not
Go
Anglo 63% 4% 18%
African
American
56% 3% 24%
Hispanic 52% 4% 23%
Native
American
50% 5% 28%

17. NWEA assessments
• Can help project progress toward college
readiness at earlier grades.
• Help teachers set goals and plan
instruction to get students on track.

18. The NWEA Col l ege Expl or er
Tool
• Projects a student’s college entrance exam range
from their reading and mathematics scores on
NWEA MAP.
• Shows the colleges in which a students score
would be competitive with the entrance exam
scores achieved by entering students.
• Provides detailed information to parents about
college costs, completion rates, financial aid,
average student debt load, and post-graduation
income that can help families more effectively
plan at earlier ages.

19. The NWEA Col l ege Expl or er
Tool

20. EPIC – Four Dimensions of college
readiness
• Post-secondary career
awareness
• Post-secondary costs
• Financial aid
• College culture
• Self-advocacy
• Admissions requirements
Adapted from EPIC – The Solution Equipping Students with the Four Keys . Retrieved from
https://www.epiconline.org/Issues/college-career-readiness/the-solution/

21. College readiness
should NOT be
defined by a single
test score associated
to a single cut score.

22. The FAFSA
Exper i ment
Tr eat ment – Low- I ncome f ami l i es
( under $45, 000 per year ) f i l i ng
t axes t hr ough H & R Bl ock wer e
of f er ed s uppor t i n f i l l i ng out
and s ubmi t t i ng t he FAFSA
paper wor k. Enr ol l ment and
f i nanci al ai d r at es wer e
compar ed f or t hi s gr oup r el at i ve
t o cont r ol gr oups t hat r ecei ved
“ai d el i gi bi l i t y i nf or mat i on”
and “gener al i nf or mat i on on
col l ege cos t s and ai d”
The i mpor t ance of
s i mpl i f i cat i on

23. The FAFSA Exper i ment
Res ul t s
Tr eat ment gr oup f ami l i es s howed a 25%
i ncr eas ed r at e of col l ege enr ol l ment
( 34. 8% vs . 26. 5%)
Tr eat ment gr oup f ami l i es r ecei ved Pel l
gr ant s at a 33% hi gher r at e t han cont r ol
f ami l i es ( 39. 6% vs . 29. 8%)
The i mpor t ance of
s i mpl i f i cat i on

24. Concl udi ng
t hought s
• The value of prediction is to help students see what is possible
and to avoid under-selecting colleges.
• Academic knowledge alone isn’t enough. Getting a complete
picture of each student is important. Getting that picture
efficiently is equally important.
• College Knowledge is important and is relatively easy to address

25. The link to the NWEA College Explorer
Tool is at
https://www.nwea.org/research/innovation-
leadership/research-data-galleries/mapping-the-road-to-
college/
https://public.tableau.com/profile/jfcnwea#!/vizhome/car
eerbook1/Dashboard1

26. Thank you!
E-mail: john.Cronin@nwea.org
Organization Website: www.nwea.org
Contact: