Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Magnifying Glasses
and Crystal Balls
Use your data to raise more today and
predict the future
1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcain...
YOUR PANEL

Bob Dillane, Director, Enterprise Information Systems
Lebanon Valley College

Cari Maslow, Senior Director, Do...
SESSION AGENDA AND GOALS
• What is Business Intelligence?

• Case Studies
- Lebanon Valley College: The Power of a Data Wa...
WHAT IS BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE?

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

4
BI IS…

Business intelligence is a set of theories,
methodologies, processes, architectures, and
technologies that transfo...
BI IS…

Business intelligence is a set of
theories, methodologies, processes, architect
ures, and technologies that transf...
NON-TECH BI ARCHITECTURE

Warehouse

Data

1/2/2014

Information

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

7

Knowledge
DATA WAREHOUSE

Sales
PK

id_product
id_client
id_client group
id_shop

ETL

id_supplier
id_date

id_country
id_supplierna...
ANALYTIC CUBES

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

9
VISUALIZATION

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

10
TYPES OF VISUALIZATION
TABLES

HEAT MAPS

TREE

1/2/2014

CHARTS & GRAPHS

GAUGES

TIME SERIES

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#...
BI AND NON-PROFITS
• The Challenge
- The data landscape has changed – there’s a lot more of it now
- Constant struggle to ...
CASE STUDY: THE POWER OF A DATA WAREHOUSE

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

13
LEBANON VALLEY COLLEGE
Lebanon Valley College in Annville, Pa.,

FAST FACTS

welcomes 1,600 full-time undergraduates

• Gu...
TRANSACTION DATABASE VS. DATA
WAREHOUSE
• A transaction database is designed for efficient data entry
• A data warehouse i...
DO YOU NEED A DATA WAREHOUSE?
• Technical Concerns
- Unless you have a large database, technology is not a big concern

• ...
COMPLEXITY OF THE RAISER’S EDGE
• SQL code to query event participant attributes directly from the
Raiser’s Edge database:...
SIMPLICITY OF A DATA WAREHOUSE
• Same query against the warehouse:

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

18
GENERAL USES FOR OUR WAREHOUSE
• Reports we can’t do, or can’t do easily in RE
• Reports that need data from outside RE
• ...
FUND REPORTING
• This is on fund categories, not funds. Our goals are by category
instead of individual funds.

1/2/2014

...
DONOR GIVING SUMMARY

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

21
USING GIFT ANALYSIS WAREHOUSE
• The Gift Analysis table has information about gifts, not donors.
• ConstitGifts table has ...
OTHER WAREHOUSE USE IN SUPPORT OF
RE DATA
• We also use the warehouse to calculate the alumni/parent year code
that is use...
REPORTING TOOLS USED AT LEBANON
VALLEY COLLEGE

• SQL Server Reporting Services is our formatted report writer
• Entrinsik...
CASE STUDY FROM APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CLUB:
TRACKING NEW MEMBERS BY SOURCE USING
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~...
ABOUT APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CLUB
• Helps people protect, enjoy, and understand the mountains,
forests, waters, and trails f...
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AT AMC
• Implemented in 2010
• Reporting
-

Appeals
Member number
Member retention
New members
To Fi...
THE “OLDEN DAYS”
• Standard 2010 new member report by source
Revenue

Avg. Dues
Payment

Total Cost
to Acquire

Cost/
Memb...
THE UNKNOWNS
•
•
•
•
•

1/2/2014

What is new member retention by source?
What is retention rate, added giving, cost to re...
2011 RAW BI DATA

1st Year
Retention Pool

1st Year
Retained

1st Year
Retained $

Avg. Dues
Payment

277

74

27%

$2,150...
ADDING CONTEXT WITH BI

2011 #
Retained

M’brshp +
Annual Fund $

2012 #
Retained

M’brshp +
Annual Fund $

Avg. Dues
Paym...
FILLING IN THE DETAILS

Year 3
Retention

Source

M’brshp
Revenue

Total
Cost

Total Ann.
Fund
Giving

Net/New
Member

Yea...
IN THE MEANTIME…
• 2013
- Dropped Groupon/Living Social
- Reduced cost of direct mail acquisition
- Hired staff to boost n...
PLAN FOR 2014
• Cut direct mail acquisition by 20%
• Use Google Grant (awarded 8/2013)
• Develop plan to boost retention a...
CASE STUDY: THE POWER OF CUBES

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

35
CARNEGIE MUSEUMS OF PITTSBURGH
• Founded in 1895
• 4 Distinct Museums
–
–
–
–

Carnegie Museum of Art
Carnegie Museum of N...
THE NEED FOR BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
• Pressure to increase revenue with shrinking resources
• Mountains of data in Raiser’s...
THE QUESTION OF RETENTION RATE
• Projecting revenue was the impetus for taking what seemed to be a
simple question further...
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
The retention rate is 63%
SO:
# of members x average gift x 63% =
Overall Renewal Revenue Projection
B...
BEFORE JCA ANSWERS: THE EVOLVING
RETENTION SPREADSHEET
Multi vs. First Year Members
• Use different renewal strategies
• R...
BEFORE JCA ANSWERS: THE EVOLVING
RETENTION SPREADSHEET
Timing
Next we started running multiple queries and plugging the co...
BEFORE JCA ANSWERS: THE EVOLVING
RETENTION SPREADSHEET
The retention rate at each time point then calculated into summary
...
SO…
•
•
•
•
•

1/2/2014

It worked but…
Labor Intensive
Risk of human error high
Not an easily transferable task
Technical...
BUT…
• No clarity around the month to
month variations
- Large Variances
- Not Consistent Year over Year

• Multi vs. Firs...
MORE QUESTIONS
•
•
•
•
•

How many times do I have to get a member in the door?
Does renewal rate change if I have an acti...
WITH JCA ANSWERS WE COULD DATA MINE
Is there a
difference
between joins
& rejoins?

What’s going
on with the
Individuals?
...
DELVING INTO THE MONTH OF EXPIRE
By month:

SENR
5%

Membership category:

January

INDL
3%
PREM
19%
DUAL
23%

FMLY
50%

S...
DELVING INTO THE MONTH OF EXPIRE
• Greater Detail on Family Level
• Renewed vs. Upgraded:

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.c...
IDENTIFICATION OF SIGNIFICANT FACTOR
January
• Purchase Method:
DM - Direct
Mail
52%

March

DM - Direct
Mail
38%

1/2/201...
WITH JCA ANSWERS
• Ability to identify which factors determine the larger variances in
retention
• Role out testing that f...
IS THERE A MAGIC NUMBER OF YEARS?
• Nugget: Getting
them into their 3rd
year is key

Why is the pattern
changing in 2012?
...
JOIN VS. REJOIN
• Nugget: Depends on the
level of membership
• Strategy Idea: Switch
telemarketing acquisition of
lapsed m...
ACQUISITION LIST PURCHASE
• Nugget: Zip codes with strong purchase
data don’t always have strong retention
rates
• New Str...
OTHER CASE STUDIES

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

54
AQUARIUM
• Implemented JCA Answers for The Raiser’s Edge and Gateway
Galaxy about 4 years ago
• Have an integrated BI envi...
ART MUSEUM
• Converted to The Raiser’s Edge about 4 years ago
• Came to JCA initially for a data warehouse
• Now have an i...
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

57
LOOKING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

58
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IS HERE

• Rise in Google Searches of ―Predictive Analytics‖

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbc...
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IS HERE
• Rise in Google Searches of ―Predictive Analytics‖ versus ―Business
Intelligence‖

1/2/2014
...
WHAT IS PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS?

Predictive analytics is business intelligence
technology that uses predictive models built ...
WHERE DO WE BEGIN?
• Start with a business question

How do I raise more money?
versus
How can I increase the number of me...
PREPARATION IS KEY
• Do we have all the data we need?
• Is our data usable?

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

63
LET’S EXPLORE
• Explore your data
• Keep your business question in mind

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

64
PREDICTIVE MODELS
• Models use patterns found in your data to identify risks and
opportunities.
• Models apply scores to y...
PREDICTIVE MODELS
• Naïve Baise
- Used for classification

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

66
PREDICTIVE MODELS
• Decision Trees
- Used for classification, regression and association

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.co...
PREDICTIVE MODELS
• Clustering
- Used for segmentation

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

68
IMPROVE YOUR MODEL
• Models are a work in progress.
• Test before deploying your model.

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com...
THE THREE R’S OF PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
• Reliable – Your predictive model must be accurate.
• Repeatable – You need to be ab...
QUESTIONS?

1/2/2014

@BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com

#bbcon

71
FOR A COPY OF THIS PRESENTATION

• Leave us your card
• Send us an email at bi@jcainc.com
• Stop by our booth: 107/109
• T...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Magnifying Glasses and Crystal Balls

1,067 views

Published on

Use your data to raise more today and predict the future
(Presented at BBCON 2013)

Published in: Business, Technology
  • download here link 100% working: https://app.box.com/s/olzwnk240vfm2ir8yfdw
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Be the first to like this

Magnifying Glasses and Crystal Balls

  1. 1. Magnifying Glasses and Crystal Balls Use your data to raise more today and predict the future 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 1
  2. 2. YOUR PANEL Bob Dillane, Director, Enterprise Information Systems Lebanon Valley College Cari Maslow, Senior Director, Donor Relations and Membership Carnegie Museums of Pittsburgh Teri Morrow, Membership Director Appalachian Mountain Club Stephanie Reyes, Manager, Business Intelligence Group JCA Steve Beshuk, Director, Business Intelligence Group JCA 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 2
  3. 3. SESSION AGENDA AND GOALS • What is Business Intelligence? • Case Studies - Lebanon Valley College: The Power of a Data Warehouse - Appalachian Mountain Club: Tracking Members Source Using BI - Carnegie Museums of Pittsburgh: The Power of Cubes • Predictive Analytics • Q&A 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 3
  4. 4. WHAT IS BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE? 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 4
  5. 5. BI IS… Business intelligence is a set of theories, methodologies, processes, architectures, and technologies that transform raw data into meaningful and useful information for business purposes. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 5
  6. 6. BI IS… Business intelligence is a set of theories, methodologies, processes, architect ures, and technologies that transform raw data into meaningful and useful information for business purposes. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 6
  7. 7. NON-TECH BI ARCHITECTURE Warehouse Data 1/2/2014 Information @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 7 Knowledge
  8. 8. DATA WAREHOUSE Sales PK id_product id_client id_client group id_shop ETL id_supplier id_date id_country id_suppliername id_supplieraddress id_shop 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 8
  9. 9. ANALYTIC CUBES 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 9
  10. 10. VISUALIZATION 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 10
  11. 11. TYPES OF VISUALIZATION TABLES HEAT MAPS TREE 1/2/2014 CHARTS & GRAPHS GAUGES TIME SERIES @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 11
  12. 12. BI AND NON-PROFITS • The Challenge - The data landscape has changed – there’s a lot more of it now - Constant struggle to grow revenue and keep costs in check - Today’s donors are demand results - Unfortunately, many nonprofits are behind the curve • The Opportunity - Today’s BI gives you the tools to leverage your untapped ―data asset‖ - Sophisticated BI does not have to mean expensive - BI can pay for itself – results! 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 12
  13. 13. CASE STUDY: THE POWER OF A DATA WAREHOUSE 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 13
  14. 14. LEBANON VALLEY COLLEGE Lebanon Valley College in Annville, Pa., FAST FACTS welcomes 1,600 full-time undergraduates • Guaranteed degree completion in 4 years studying more than 30 majors, as well as self- designed majors. Founded in 1866, LVC has graduate programs in physical therapy, business, music education, and science education. Annville is 15 minutes east of Hershey and 35 minutes east of Harrisburg; Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and • 3 out of 4 LVC students choose to live in excellent, safe, guaranteed campus housing • Low student-to-faculty ratio of 13 students to each professor allows for personal interactions and a customizable education • High-achieving students, 1/2 of whom were in the top 20% of their high school class, continually teach each other while learning together Baltimore are within two hours. • 98 % of students receive some form of financial assistance with an average aid package of more than $24,500 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 14
  15. 15. TRANSACTION DATABASE VS. DATA WAREHOUSE • A transaction database is designed for efficient data entry • A data warehouse is designed for ease and speed of reporting • These are two very different design goals 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 15
  16. 16. DO YOU NEED A DATA WAREHOUSE? • Technical Concerns - Unless you have a large database, technology is not a big concern • Practical Concerns - Can I get answers with a data warehouse that I can’t (efficiently) get without one? (the answer is virtually always ―yes‖) - Will those answers improve our ability to perform our mission? 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 16
  17. 17. COMPLEXITY OF THE RAISER’S EDGE • SQL code to query event participant attributes directly from the Raiser’s Edge database: 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 17
  18. 18. SIMPLICITY OF A DATA WAREHOUSE • Same query against the warehouse: 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 18
  19. 19. GENERAL USES FOR OUR WAREHOUSE • Reports we can’t do, or can’t do easily in RE • Reports that need data from outside RE • Perform calculations and import data back to RE • Create custom gift analysis warehouse generated from JCA Answers warehouse 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 19
  20. 20. FUND REPORTING • This is on fund categories, not funds. Our goals are by category instead of individual funds. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 20
  21. 21. DONOR GIVING SUMMARY 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 21
  22. 22. USING GIFT ANALYSIS WAREHOUSE • The Gift Analysis table has information about gifts, not donors. • ConstitGifts table has links donors and gifts, with a flag for the type of linkage (hard credit, soft credit, match credit, etc.) • Using these tables, we can quickly answer questions such as: - ―How much did each donor give to the Mund Buidling Fund, the Annual Fund and any endowment funds (3 separate totals) between July 17th and September 12th?‖ • For frequently asked amounts (annual fund, etc.), we generate totals nightly and import them to RE as constituent attributes. This extends the capability of query and export in RE. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 22
  23. 23. OTHER WAREHOUSE USE IN SUPPORT OF RE DATA • We also use the warehouse to calculate the alumni/parent year code that is used with constituent names. • We analyze: - What degrees and graduation years the individual has - What undergraduate degrees and graduation years the person’s children have - We calculate an alumni/parent code and import it back to RE as an Add/Sal 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 23
  24. 24. REPORTING TOOLS USED AT LEBANON VALLEY COLLEGE • SQL Server Reporting Services is our formatted report writer • Entrinsik Informer as our primary add hoc query tool • Crystal Reports for some formatted reports, but we are phasing this out • Excel with Microsoft Query to access the warehouse • JCA Answers as our primary data warehouse - 1/2/2014 Warehouse rebuild runs at 8:00 p.m. Various calculations are run and exported from the warehouse Calculations are imported into The Raisers Edge Warehouse is rebuilt again at 7:00 a.m. @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 24
  25. 25. CASE STUDY FROM APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CLUB: TRACKING NEW MEMBERS BY SOURCE USING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 25
  26. 26. ABOUT APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CLUB • Helps people protect, enjoy, and understand the mountains, forests, waters, and trails from Maine to Washington, DC. • • • • • 1/2/2014 86,000 members; 16,000 volunteers; 20,000 advocates 12 chapters Backcountry huts, camps & campsites, and front country lodges Maintain over 1,800 miles of trail; 350+ miles of the AT 8,000 volunteer- and staff-led activities @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 26
  27. 27. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AT AMC • Implemented in 2010 • Reporting - Appeals Member number Member retention New members To Finance Leaving Madison Spring Hut Photo by Chris Lawrie, AMC New Hampshire Chapter 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 27
  28. 28. THE “OLDEN DAYS” • Standard 2010 new member report by source Revenue Avg. Dues Payment Total Cost to Acquire Cost/ Member Net/ Member 351 $10,118 $28.83 $15,515 $44.20 ($15.38) Direct Mail 7,742 $250,936 $32.41 $619,509 $80.02 ($47.61) Email/Web 4,641 $242,555 $52.26 $21,693 $4.67 $47.59 Gift Memberships 659 $35,048 $53.18 $5,374 $8.15 $45.03 Miscellaneous 988 $31146 $31.52 $27,897 $28.24 $3.29 Reservations 852 $52,277 $61.36 $10,651 $12.50 $48.86 1,374 $65,841 $47.92 $66,906 $48.69 ($0.78) 16,607 $687,921 $41.42 $767,544 $46.22 ($4.79) Source New M’brshps Collective Buying Telemarketing to Formers Total 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 28
  29. 29. THE UNKNOWNS • • • • • 1/2/2014 What is new member retention by source? What is retention rate, added giving, cost to renew? Incorporated BI data into long-term reporting Appeals coded with type and channel (AQDM, RNWB) Type and channel split in BI—track at the channel level @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 29
  30. 30. 2011 RAW BI DATA 1st Year Retention Pool 1st Year Retained 1st Year Retained $ Avg. Dues Payment 277 74 27% $2,150 $29.05 7,742 3,367 47% $113,566 $31.23 Email 174 49 28% $2,331 $47.57 Miscellaneous 646 236 37% $9,851 $41.74 Reservations 979 324 33% $19,166 $59.15 TM to Formers 1,900 602 32% $28,865 $47.95 Web 4,459 1,828 41% $87,939 $48.11 Total 16,177 6,750 42% $263,866 $39.09 Source Collective Buying Direct Mail 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 30 % Retained
  31. 31. ADDING CONTEXT WITH BI 2011 # Retained M’brshp + Annual Fund $ 2012 # Retained M’brshp + Annual Fund $ Avg. Dues Payment 74 $2,328 33 $1,542 $37.24 Direct Mail 3,367 $135,693 2,443 $124,894 $39.82 Email/Web 1,877 $106,114 1,120 $79,875 $53.49 Gift Memberships 100 $5,254 85 $5,291 $50.51 Miscellaneous 236 $13,684 141 $11,541 $46.27 Reservations 324 $22,766 207 $15,981 $62.14 TM to Formers 602 $41,651 269 $22,496 $53.93 6,850 $327,489 4,298 $261,620 $45.74 Source Collective Buying Total 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 31
  32. 32. FILLING IN THE DETAILS Year 3 Retention Source M’brshp Revenue Total Cost Total Ann. Fund Giving Net/New Member Year 3 M’brshp ROI % Ann Fund Giving Collective Buying 9% $17,825 $13,497 $491 ($10.93) $0.78 4% Direct Mail 32% $657,151 $461,779 $49,744 ($18.81) $0.78 11% Email/Web 24% $46,681 $392,731 $35,813 $82.28 $9.18 9% Gift Memberships 13% $8,225 $43,670 $1,923 $56.70 $5.54 4% Miscellaneous 14% $33,212 $47,521 $8,850 $23.44 $1.70 19% Reservations 24% $15,039 $84,305 $6,718 $89.18 $6.05 8% Telemarketing • Re-calculated 20% $75,938of retention as to Formers 2012 and re-calculated$39.34 ROI. $109,212 $20,776 $1.71 19% Total $1,152,714 $1.50 11% 1/2/2014 26% @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com $854,071 #bbcon 32 $124,315 $25.47
  33. 33. IN THE MEANTIME… • 2013 - Dropped Groupon/Living Social - Reduced cost of direct mail acquisition - Hired staff to boost non-direct mail/non-telemarketing efforts • Growth in web/email sales slow • New members from guest reservations up nearly 300% • Memberships purchased by visitors at AMC huts, camps, and lodges fewer than 100 in 2010 now up to nearly 900 in 2013. • Tracking 2011 and 2012 new members • Guest stay data not available • No volunteer data in database 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 33
  34. 34. PLAN FOR 2014 • Cut direct mail acquisition by 20% • Use Google Grant (awarded 8/2013) • Develop plan to boost retention and Annual Fund support from gift memberships • Assess non-Membership department sales for 2014 growth potential. Crisp Colors Photograph by Nicholas Gagnon, AMC New Hampshire Chapter 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 34
  35. 35. CASE STUDY: THE POWER OF CUBES 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 35
  36. 36. CARNEGIE MUSEUMS OF PITTSBURGH • Founded in 1895 • 4 Distinct Museums – – – – Carnegie Museum of Art Carnegie Museum of Natural History Carnegie Science Center The Andy Warhol Museum • Serve 1.3 million people annually 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 36
  37. 37. THE NEED FOR BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE • Pressure to increase revenue with shrinking resources • Mountains of data in Raiser’s Edge but no easy way to get answers to questions • Answers we had weren’t actionable and instead just led to more questions • No easy way to measure strategy performance which led to a culture of adding initiatives but not discontinuing any already implemented 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 37
  38. 38. THE QUESTION OF RETENTION RATE • Projecting revenue was the impetus for taking what seemed to be a simple question further • With an on-going, multi-hit renewal series, we needed to estimate not only what percentage would renew but when they would renew • Knew the makeup of the population would impact the results but had no way of knowing which characteristics were most impactful 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 38
  39. 39. WHY DOES IT MATTER? The retention rate is 63% SO: # of members x average gift x 63% = Overall Renewal Revenue Projection BUT: • Makeup of population impact both the monthly and the year-to-year results • Needed to predict when in the solicitation cycle renewals would happen 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 39
  40. 40. BEFORE JCA ANSWERS: THE EVOLVING RETENTION SPREADSHEET Multi vs. First Year Members • Use different renewal strategies • Run monthly query off an attribute set for segmentation of the first direct mail hit • Didn’t answer the ―when‖ question • Confirmed theory that the makeup of the monthly populations mattered 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 40
  41. 41. BEFORE JCA ANSWERS: THE EVOLVING RETENTION SPREADSHEET Timing Next we started running multiple queries and plugging the counts into this spreadsheet data table 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 41
  42. 42. BEFORE JCA ANSWERS: THE EVOLVING RETENTION SPREADSHEET The retention rate at each time point then calculated into summary tables 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 42
  43. 43. SO… • • • • • 1/2/2014 It worked but… Labor Intensive Risk of human error high Not an easily transferable task Technical: had to make friends in IT @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 43
  44. 44. BUT… • No clarity around the month to month variations - Large Variances - Not Consistent Year over Year • Multi vs. First was not enough population segmentation • Still left us without answers when asked ―Why…‖ • AND then we changed our upgrade solicitation method which further skewed the model 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 44
  45. 45. MORE QUESTIONS • • • • • How many times do I have to get a member in the door? Does renewal rate change if I have an active email address? Does it matter whether they visit one, two or all three museum sites? Are the increasing number of member events making a difference? Retention gains in one year don’t appear to hold, why not? Everything we did to try to impact retention was still just an educated stab in the dark. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 45
  46. 46. WITH JCA ANSWERS WE COULD DATA MINE Is there a difference between joins & rejoins? What’s going on with the Individuals? True of all multi years or does upgrading impact? Does it matter how many years? Do the rates by category stay consistent month to month? Does the purchase method impact the rate? 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 46 What about timing?
  47. 47. DELVING INTO THE MONTH OF EXPIRE By month: SENR 5% Membership category: January INDL 3% PREM 19% DUAL 23% FMLY 50% SENR 4% INDL 2% DUAL 18% March PREM 22% FMLY 54% 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 47
  48. 48. DELVING INTO THE MONTH OF EXPIRE • Greater Detail on Family Level • Renewed vs. Upgraded: 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com • Number of Gifts: #bbcon 48
  49. 49. IDENTIFICATION OF SIGNIFICANT FACTOR January • Purchase Method: DM - Direct Mail 52% March DM - Direct Mail 38% 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 49
  50. 50. WITH JCA ANSWERS • Ability to identify which factors determine the larger variances in retention • Role out testing that focuses on chosen factors and monitor results - Years of Membership - Join vs. Rejoin - Direct Mail Retention by Zip Code • Ability to target specific groups of people with different offers & communication - Non-visiting members 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 50
  51. 51. IS THERE A MAGIC NUMBER OF YEARS? • Nugget: Getting them into their 3rd year is key Why is the pattern changing in 2012? • New Strategy: Extend 1st year discounting to 2nd year members 2012 2010 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com 2011 #bbcon 51
  52. 52. JOIN VS. REJOIN • Nugget: Depends on the level of membership • Strategy Idea: Switch telemarketing acquisition of lapsed members from Family & Premium to Dual, Individual and Senior levels 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 52
  53. 53. ACQUISITION LIST PURCHASE • Nugget: Zip codes with strong purchase data don’t always have strong retention rates • New Strategy: Work with direct mail firm to use data from Answers when making list buys 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 53
  54. 54. OTHER CASE STUDIES 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 54
  55. 55. AQUARIUM • Implemented JCA Answers for The Raiser’s Edge and Gateway Galaxy about 4 years ago • Have an integrated BI environment • Incorporated budget information into data warehouse • Have been able to better understand deferred revenue reporting • One department alone saw savings of 500 hours in staff time a year due to efficiencies made possible by JCA Answers. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 55
  56. 56. ART MUSEUM • Converted to The Raiser’s Edge about 4 years ago • Came to JCA initially for a data warehouse • Now have an integrated BI infrastructure that combines their Raiser’s Edge and Ticketmaster VISTA ticketing data • Starting to do more work in Predictive Analytics – initial savings: $20,000 annually 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 56
  57. 57. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 57
  58. 58. LOOKING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 58
  59. 59. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IS HERE • Rise in Google Searches of ―Predictive Analytics‖ 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 59
  60. 60. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IS HERE • Rise in Google Searches of ―Predictive Analytics‖ versus ―Business Intelligence‖ 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 60
  61. 61. WHAT IS PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS? Predictive analytics is business intelligence technology that uses predictive models built from your data to make predictions about the future. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 61
  62. 62. WHERE DO WE BEGIN? • Start with a business question How do I raise more money? versus How can I increase the number of membership renewals? 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 62
  63. 63. PREPARATION IS KEY • Do we have all the data we need? • Is our data usable? 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 63
  64. 64. LET’S EXPLORE • Explore your data • Keep your business question in mind 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 64
  65. 65. PREDICTIVE MODELS • Models use patterns found in your data to identify risks and opportunities. • Models apply scores to your constituents, which can help guide your strategy for improving outcomes 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 65
  66. 66. PREDICTIVE MODELS • Naïve Baise - Used for classification 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 66
  67. 67. PREDICTIVE MODELS • Decision Trees - Used for classification, regression and association 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 67
  68. 68. PREDICTIVE MODELS • Clustering - Used for segmentation 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 68
  69. 69. IMPROVE YOUR MODEL • Models are a work in progress. • Test before deploying your model. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 69
  70. 70. THE THREE R’S OF PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS • Reliable – Your predictive model must be accurate. • Repeatable – You need to be able to use your model more than once. • Relatable – You need to understand the results. 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 70
  71. 71. QUESTIONS? 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 71
  72. 72. FOR A COPY OF THIS PRESENTATION • Leave us your card • Send us an email at bi@jcainc.com • Stop by our booth: 107/109 • Tweet us @BI_JCA • Go to our website: www.jca-answers.com 1/2/2014 @BI_JCA ~ bi@jcainc.com #bbcon 72

×