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October 2010
3rd Quarter 2010
A LOOK AT THE LAST QUARTER
3rd Quarter 2010
There are several signs around us that fall has finally arrived. The
weather i...
A LOOK AT THE LAST QUARTER
3rd Quarter 2010
With a couple of notable exceptions, pricing has continued to
fall slightly ov...
4th Quarter 2010
LOOKING FORWARD
It seems as if the recent surge in activity is being driven primarily by the need for lift, as opposed to
...
GULFSTREAM
DASSAULT FALCON
BOMBARDIER
HAWKER BEECHCRAFT
CESSNA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Available G100 Available G150 Available G200
Available GII Available GIII
GULFSTREAM – Midsized Aircra...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
G100 Sold G150 Sold G200 Sold GII Sold GIII Sold
GULFSTREAM – Midsized Aircraft Sold
Several models of
mid...
GULFSTREAM – Midsized Aircraft Asking Price
For the most part,
asking prices in the
midsized Gulfstream
market have been f...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Available GIV Available GIVSP Available G450 Available GV Available G550
GULFSTREAM – Large Cabin Airc...
0
2
4
6
8
10
GIV Sold GIVSP Sold G450 Sold GV Sold G550 Sold
GULFSTREAM – Large Cabin Aircraft Sold
Activity on large cabi...
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
GIV GIVSP G450 ...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
F20-5 F50 F50EX F2000 F2000EX
DASSAULT FALCONJET – Midsized Aircraft Available
Supply of midsized
Falc...
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
F20-5 F50 F50EX F2000 F2000EX
DASSAULT FALCONJET – Midsized Aircraft Sold
Sales of midsized
Falcon Jet a...
$1,000,000
$3,000,000
$5,000,000
$7,000,000
$9,000,000
$11,000,000
$13,000,000
$15,000,000
$17,000,000
$19,000,000
F20-5 F...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
F900B F900EX F7X
DASSAULT FALCONJET – Large Cabin Aircraft Available
The availability of
newer, in serv...
0
2
4
6
8
10
F900B F900EX F7X
DASSAULT FALCONJET – Large Cabin Aircraft Sold
The factory delivered a
good number of Falcon...
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
F900B F900EX F7...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Lear 31A Lear 40XR Lear 45XR Lear 60XR
BOMBARDIER – Midsized Aircraft Available
Availability of new...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lear 31A Lear 40XR Lear 45XR Lear 60XR
BOMBARDIER – Midsized Aircraft Available Sold
Several of the mid...
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
$8,000,000
$9,000,000
$10,000,000
$11,000,000...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
CL 601 3A CL 604 CL 605 CL 300 Global Express Global 5000 Global XRS
BOMBARDIER – Large Cab...
0
2
4
6
8
10
CL 601 3A CL 604 CL 605 CL 300 Global Express Global 5000 Global XRS
BOMBARDIER – Large Cabin Aircraft Sold
A...
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
CL 601 3A CL 60...
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Premier 1A Beechjet 400A Hawker 400XP
HAWKER BEECH – Small Cabin Aircraft Available
Supply o...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Premier 1A Beechjet 400A Hawker 400XP
HAWKER BEECH – Small Cabin Aircraft Sold
Small Cabin, Hawker
Beech s...
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
Premier 1A Beechjet 400A Hawker 400XP
HAWKER BEECH – ...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Hawker 800A Hawker 800XP Hawker 850XP Hawker 900XP Hawker 4000
HAWKER BEECH – Midsized Aircraft Availa...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Hawker 800A Hawker 800XP Hawker 850XP Hawker 900XP Hawker 4000
HAWKER BEECH – Midsized Aircraft Sold
Sales...
$1,000,000
$3,000,000
$5,000,000
$7,000,000
$9,000,000
$11,000,000
$13,000,000
$15,000,000
$17,000,000
$19,000,000
Hawker ...
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mustang CJ1 CJ2 CJ3 Bravo
CESSNA – Small Cabin Aircraft Available
Inventory levels on
all small...
0
5
10
15
20
Mustang CJ1 CJ2 CJ3 Bravo
CESSNA – Small Cabin Aircraft Sold
Trading on CJ1s, 2s,
3s & Bravos has been
light ...
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
Mustang CJ1 CJ2 CJ3 Bravo
CESSNA – Small Cabi...
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Encore XLS Sovereign Citation X
CESSNA – Midsized Aircraft Available
Availability of midsized
Citatio...
0
2
4
6
8
10
Encore XLS Sovereign Citation X
CESSNA – Midsized Aircraft Sold
Sovereign sales were
fairly steady in the 2nd...
$1,000,000
$3,000,000
$5,000,000
$7,000,000
$9,000,000
$11,000,000
$13,000,000
$15,000,000
Encore XLS Sovereign Citation X...
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JBA Aviation Quarterly Report, 3rd Quarter 2010

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GWelcome to the inaugural issue of the JBA Aviation Market Report

This quarterly Market Report will provide you with an insightful analysis of developments and trends in the business jet marketplace as a whole, as well as a more detailed look at pricing on specific models of Gulfstream, Dassault Falcon, Bombardier, Hawker, Beechcraft and Cessna aircraft. If you have questions about this analysis or would like some insight into a market we did not cover, please give us a call.

If you are in the market to buy, lease or sell a business aircraft, trust the experts at JBA. With more than 30 years experience, JBA is known throughout the industry as the brokerage organization with a reputation for professionalism.

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JBA Aviation Quarterly Report, 3rd Quarter 2010

  1. 1. October 2010
  2. 2. 3rd Quarter 2010
  3. 3. A LOOK AT THE LAST QUARTER 3rd Quarter 2010 There are several signs around us that fall has finally arrived. The weather is cooler, football season is in full swing and buyers are making offers on jet aircraft. The summer months are usually pretty slow in the turbine aircraft resale market. This summer seemed to be even slower than usual as motivated sellers tried in vane to entice offers with frequent price reductions. However, since the first of September, most dealers and brokers have reported a strong surge in activity and a large spike in transactions. The increase in demand paired with a slow but steady decrease in supply over the last six months are two very good indicators that things are starting to improve. Although many markets appear at first glance to be flooded with inventory, when the list of aircraft for sale is narrowed down to the truly desirable aircraft, many times there are few alternatives to consider. The charts on the right side of this page give a quick snapshot of the jet market over the last several months. Because of the long lead time necessary to close a transaction, .the recent spike in activity will not be reflected in the jets sold chart for some time. However, you can see the decrease in supply has continued. Current inventory levels are down more than 12% from where they were this time last year. 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 Apr '10 May '10 Jun '10 Jul '10 Aug. '10 Number of Jets for Sale 0 100 200 300 Apr '10 May '10 Jun '10 Jul '10 Aug '10 Number of Jets Sold
  4. 4. A LOOK AT THE LAST QUARTER 3rd Quarter 2010 With a couple of notable exceptions, pricing has continued to fall slightly over the last several months. Although a modest price increase was seen in the G-550 & Global Express markets a few months ago, those increases were not enough to overshadow the continued decline in the small, midsized and large cabin markets. Turnover rates remain slow as It is still taking quite a long time to sell in today’s market. The average days to sell has been hovering around the 12 month mark for quite some time. When prices finally stabilize, that trend should correct itself as aircraft owners will have a clearer picture of what their aircraft is worth when they decide to put it on the market. Today’s seller can only look at the most recent transaction for an estimate, than try to price the airplane “ahead of the market” to compensate for dropping prices. $4,400 $4,600 $4,800 $5,000 Apr '10 May '10 Jun '10 Jul '10 Aug '10 Average Jet Asking Prices 0 100 200 300 400 500 Apr '10 May '10 Jun '10 Jul '10 Aug. '10 Average Days to Sell
  5. 5. 4th Quarter 2010
  6. 6. LOOKING FORWARD It seems as if the recent surge in activity is being driven primarily by the need for lift, as opposed to opportunistic buyers attempting to capitalize on low pricing and desperate sellers. Driving that need would be an increase in domestic flying, which seems to have been steadily increasing over the last 9 months. Assuming we continue to see the stock market indices improve and domestic flying continues to improve, I think it is a safe bet that there will be an active market through the end of the fourth quarter. The approval of bonus depreciation for 2010 & 2011 should keep the OEM’s backlog growing, which should drive more and more buyers to the pre-owned marketplace. . The following chart was compiled from the U.S. Energy Information Administration which tracks U.S. Jet Fuel sales in Average Thousand Gallons per Day. 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Jan '10 Feb '10 Mar '10 Apr '10 May '10 Jun '10 Jul '10
  7. 7. GULFSTREAM DASSAULT FALCON BOMBARDIER HAWKER BEECHCRAFT CESSNA
  8. 8. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Available G100 Available G150 Available G200 Available GII Available GIII GULFSTREAM – Midsized Aircraft Available Supply of aircraft in the Gulfstream midsized category has been fairly flat over the last year, with the exception of the G- 200 which has displayed a steady decline since last September. Availability of G-II’s & G-III’s is well off peak numbers, but still represents a very high percentage of the active fleet. Back to aircraft listing
  9. 9. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 G100 Sold G150 Sold G200 Sold GII Sold GIII Sold GULFSTREAM – Midsized Aircraft Sold Several models of midsized Gulfstream aircraft have had pockets of activity which resulted in a number of transactions during a particular month. However, only the G-200 has demonstrated any consistency in the number of transactions for any length of time. Back to aircraft listing
  10. 10. GULFSTREAM – Midsized Aircraft Asking Price For the most part, asking prices in the midsized Gulfstream market have been flat to slightly decreasing over the last 12 months. The G-200 seems to have leveled off and even showed a slight uptick earlier this summer. $1,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,000,000 $7,000,000 $9,000,000 $11,000,000 $13,000,000 $15,000,000 G100 Asking Price G150 Asking Price G200 Asking Price GII Asking Price GIII Asking Price Back to aircraft listing
  11. 11. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Available GIV Available GIVSP Available G450 Available GV Available G550 GULFSTREAM – Large Cabin Aircraft Available Availability of G-IVSP aircraft for sale has been steadily shrinking since February. Over the last 30 days, supply of in service G-450, G-V & G- 550 aircraft has shrunk drastically and the supply of G-IVs is well off peak numbers. A significantly large percentage of 450 & 550 supply currently consists of delivery positions & lease aircraft. Back to aircraft listing
  12. 12. 0 2 4 6 8 10 GIV Sold GIVSP Sold G450 Sold GV Sold G550 Sold GULFSTREAM – Large Cabin Aircraft Sold Activity on large cabin Gulfstream Aircraft has been sporadic, but generally good. Prior to year end there was a large spike in G-450 & G-550 sales. Most recently, there has been a surge in sales of straight G-IV’s and what few remaining G- V’s are for sale are getting serious offers. Back to aircraft listing
  13. 13. $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000 $40,000,000 $45,000,000 GIV GIVSP G450 Ave Asking Prices GV Ave Asking Prices G550 GULFSTREAM – Large Cabin Aircraft Asking Price The G-550 market was one of the first to experience a true increase in pricing this spring. Though the G- 450, G-IVSP & G-V markets have taken a bit longer, all are now trending towards increasing asking prices and lower availability. Back to aircraft listing
  14. 14. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 F20-5 F50 F50EX F2000 F2000EX DASSAULT FALCONJET – Midsized Aircraft Available Supply of midsized Falcon Jet aircraft for sale over the last year has been relatively flat. A few of the models are off peak figures, but the drop in supply has been driven more by Seller’s removing their aircraft from the market rather than transactions. Back to aircraft listing
  15. 15. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 F20-5 F50 F50EX F2000 F2000EX DASSAULT FALCONJET – Midsized Aircraft Sold Sales of midsized Falcon Jet aircraft over the last year have been spotty. Straight Falcon 50’s have had a couple of good months this year while Falcon 20 retrofits and Falcon 2000’s have had only moderate success. Back to aircraft listing
  16. 16. $1,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,000,000 $7,000,000 $9,000,000 $11,000,000 $13,000,000 $15,000,000 $17,000,000 $19,000,000 F20-5 F50 F50EX F2000 F2000EX DASSAULT FALCONJET – Midsized Aircraft Asking Just about all models of midsized Falcon Jet aircraft have continued to experience price decreases over the last 12 months. The largest drop seems to be on the straight Falcon 2000s, with the average asking price dropping by around 25% over the last year. Back to aircraft listing
  17. 17. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 F900B F900EX F7X DASSAULT FALCONJET – Large Cabin Aircraft Available The availability of newer, in service, large cabin aircraft has been coming down all year. However, the number of 7X delivery positions available on the re- sale market has climbed in recent months and the number of older Falcon 900B’s for sale has spiked quite a bit in the last quarter. Back to aircraft listing
  18. 18. 0 2 4 6 8 10 F900B F900EX F7X DASSAULT FALCONJET – Large Cabin Aircraft Sold The factory delivered a good number of Falcon 7X aircraft at the beginning of the year and again in the spring. When viewed as a percentage of the number of aircraft for sale, Falcon 900EX and 900B sales have been fairly slow, with a small spike in early summer. Back to aircraft listing
  19. 19. $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000 $40,000,000 $45,000,000 F900B F900EX F7X DASSAULT FALCONJET – Large Cabin Aircraft Asking Falcon 7X asking prices have remained pretty firm while Falcon 900EX & 900B asking prices have maintained a moderately decreasing trend in 2010. Back to aircraft listing
  20. 20. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Lear 31A Lear 40XR Lear 45XR Lear 60XR BOMBARDIER – Midsized Aircraft Available Availability of newer, midsized Lear jets has been fairly stable over the last year. However, inventory levels on some of the older model Lears like the Lear 31A have begun to creep back up since the early summer. Back to aircraft listing
  21. 21. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Lear 31A Lear 40XR Lear 45XR Lear 60XR BOMBARDIER – Midsized Aircraft Available Sold Several of the midsized Learjet models saw a spike in transactions in the months of April and June. The month of August saw extremely light trading on all models of Lear jets. Back to aircraft listing
  22. 22. $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 $9,000,000 $10,000,000 $11,000,000 Lear 31A Lear 40XR Lear 45XR Lear 60XR BOMBARDIER – Midsized Aircraft Available Asking Asking prices on midsized Lear jets have continued to trend down over the last year. Average prices on models like the Lear 40XR that only have a handful of aircraft for sale are drastically effected by one price change or one new addition to the market. Back to aircraft listing
  23. 23. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 CL 601 3A CL 604 CL 605 CL 300 Global Express Global 5000 Global XRS BOMBARDIER – Large Cabin Aircraft Available Heavy Iron inventory levels have generally been coming down over the last year across the board. However, several current production models like the Global 5000 & XRS have experienced a recent increase in delivery positions for sale, causing total availability to spike in recent months. Back to aircraft listing
  24. 24. 0 2 4 6 8 10 CL 601 3A CL 604 CL 605 CL 300 Global Express Global 5000 Global XRS BOMBARDIER – Large Cabin Aircraft Sold A good number of newer, large cabin, Bombardier aircraft were moved in the months of April & May. Age of airframe is more important than ever as the 605’s outperform the 604’s, which continue to outperform the older 601’s. Back to aircraft listing
  25. 25. $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000 $40,000,000 $45,000,000 CL 601 3A CL 604 CL 605 CL 300 Global Express Global 5000 Global XRS BOMBARDIER – Large Cabin Aircraft Asking Although the in production, large cabin airframes like the Global 5000 & XRS have seen some significant price increases recently, the older vintage airframes like the 601 continue to suffer declining values. Until the 605 shows signs of improvement, I would not expect the market on 604’s to stabilize. Back to aircraft listing
  26. 26. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Premier 1A Beechjet 400A Hawker 400XP HAWKER BEECH – Small Cabin Aircraft Available Supply of Beech 400A’s has been very stable over the last year while Premier 1A’s and Hawker 400XP’s have experienced some fluctuations. Current availability is not far off from the numbers reported last fall. Back to aircraft listing
  27. 27. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Premier 1A Beechjet 400A Hawker 400XP HAWKER BEECH – Small Cabin Aircraft Sold Small Cabin, Hawker Beech sales tracked pretty closely with the seasonality of our industry over the last year. A spike in transactions occurred toward year end and again at the end of spring. with little activity during the summer months. Back to aircraft listing
  28. 28. $0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 Premier 1A Beechjet 400A Hawker 400XP HAWKER BEECH – Small Cabin Aircraft Asking Average asking prices on smaller cabin, Hawker Beechcraft models have generally continued to be pushed downward due to an over- supply of used aircraft on the market and a general lack of demand. Back to aircraft listing
  29. 29. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Hawker 800A Hawker 800XP Hawker 850XP Hawker 900XP Hawker 4000 HAWKER BEECH – Midsized Aircraft Available Hawker 800A & 850XP inventory levels have come well off peak numbers in recent months. 800XP availability has actually increased since the first of the year and availability of the newest Hawker models including the 900XP and 4000 remain low. Back to aircraft listing
  30. 30. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Hawker 800A Hawker 800XP Hawker 850XP Hawker 900XP Hawker 4000 HAWKER BEECH – Midsized Aircraft Sold Sales on the midsized Hawker models seem to have spiked every other month or so over the last year. Sales figures declined as the summer slow down took effect in July & August, but should be back up when Sept. & Oct. numbers are in. Back to aircraft listing
  31. 31. $1,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,000,000 $7,000,000 $9,000,000 $11,000,000 $13,000,000 $15,000,000 $17,000,000 $19,000,000 Hawker 800A Hawker 800XP Hawker 850XP Hawker 900XP Hawker 4000 HAWKER BEECH – Midsized Aircraft Asking Just about all models of midsized, Hawker Beech Aircraft have experienced continued price declines over the last 12 months, with the exception of the 4000 which has been relatively stable, but only had 1 or 2 units for sale over that time. Back to aircraft listing
  32. 32. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Mustang CJ1 CJ2 CJ3 Bravo CESSNA – Small Cabin Aircraft Available Inventory levels on all small cabin, Cessna aircraft that are out of production have continued to rise, while supply of current production models have been coming down since early spring. Back to aircraft listing
  33. 33. 0 5 10 15 20 Mustang CJ1 CJ2 CJ3 Bravo CESSNA – Small Cabin Aircraft Sold Trading on CJ1s, 2s, 3s & Bravos has been light so far in 2010. Mustangs sales spiked in March and May driven primarily by new aircraft deliveries. Demand for low time, newer vintage CJ’s has picked up significantly since early September. Back to aircraft listing
  34. 34. $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 Mustang CJ1 CJ2 CJ3 Bravo CESSNA – Small Cabin Aircraft Asking Although asking prices seem to have leveled off on small cabin Cessna aircraft, Sellers must continue to get aggressive with negotiations in order to motivate buyers to move forward. Actual sales prices continue to be driven down in today’s market. Back to aircraft listing
  35. 35. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Encore XLS Sovereign Citation X CESSNA – Midsized Aircraft Available Availability of midsized Citation models saw a steady decline from the first of the year until late spring, when Encore & XLS inventories began climbing a gain. Supply of Citation X & Sovereign aircraft are well off peak numbers, but both have increased in recent months. Back to aircraft listing
  36. 36. 0 2 4 6 8 10 Encore XLS Sovereign Citation X CESSNA – Midsized Aircraft Sold Sovereign sales were fairly steady in the 2nd & 3rd quarters, and the Citation X market was active during the 2nd quarter. XLS and Encore sales have been sparse so far this year with little increase in activity in recent months. Back to aircraft listing
  37. 37. $1,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,000,000 $7,000,000 $9,000,000 $11,000,000 $13,000,000 $15,000,000 Encore XLS Sovereign Citation X CESSNA – Midsized Aircraft Asking The recent increase in supply and relatively few transactions to point to on midsized Citations the last few months have lead to continued price reductions across the board. Back to aircraft listing

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