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Geopolitical Implication of Water and Food Security in Southern and Eastern
Mediterranean Countries
Eugenia Ferragina
Isti...
Overview
• The impact of climatic change on water and food security in SEMC’s
• The political repercussion of global food ...
Mediterranean “hot spot” of global climatic
change
• Increase in time-space rainfall
variations
• More intensity and frequ...
National Rainfall Index (NRI) (mm/yr) 1963–2011.
Source: data analysis – FAO 2013. AQUASTAT Database, Food and Agriculture...
Land under cereal production in some SEMCs
1980–2012 (hectares)
Source: World Development Indicators, 2014
Self-sufficiency index for cereals in some SEMCs
Data Source: World Development Indicators, 2014
• Strong dependency from foodstuff
imports
• High percentage of population under or
close to the poverty line
• Political ...
The geopolitics of water and land in MENA region
The international competition for water involves:
•Renewable water ressou...
The South Valley Development Project :
Aree valorizzate tra il
1997 e il 2004
(1.300.000 feddan)
Progetti in fase di
reali...
Changing power relations on the Nile
• SVDP : a new claim jeopardizing initiatives of upstream
countries
• The counter-heg...
The strategic role of non renewable fossil aquifers
• Localisation for 98,5
% in MENA
countries
• Saudi Arabia, Libya
and ...
Transnational land deals as a new driver of
conflict over land and water
• Definition of land grabbing: the purchase or le...
Paese investitore Settori Paesi di destinazione Area in negoziazione (ha) Area negoziata (ha)
Algeria Agricoltura Costa d'...
The involvement of MENA countries in land deals
Pays investisseursPays destinataires
Colombia
Argentina
Marocco
Mauritania...
Investment in land of Egypt
Sudan
Sud Sudan
Tanzania
Source: Landmatrix.org 2014
A new scenario in the global food market
• Impredictability of global food production due to climatic
change
• Economic an...
Geopolitical Implications of Water and Food Security in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries
Geopolitical Implications of Water and Food Security in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries
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Geopolitical Implications of Water and Food Security in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries

by Eugenia Ferragina, Senior researcher, Institute of Studies on Mediterranean Societies (ISSM), Italian National Research Council (CNR), Naples
at IAI-OCP international seminar on
"Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture in the Euro-Mediterranean Area", Rome – February 2, 2015

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Geopolitical Implications of Water and Food Security in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries

  1. 1. Geopolitical Implication of Water and Food Security in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries Eugenia Ferragina Istituto di Studi sulle Società del Mediterraneo (ISSM) Institute of Studies on Mediterranean Societies Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) National Research Council Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture in the Euro-Mediterranean Area Rome – February 2, 2015
  2. 2. Overview • The impact of climatic change on water and food security in SEMC’s • The political repercussion of global food crisis in SEMC’s • The geopolitical dimension of water and food security
  3. 3. Mediterranean “hot spot” of global climatic change • Increase in time-space rainfall variations • More intensity and frequency of extremes weather events • Effects on cultivation employing green water (mainly cereals)
  4. 4. National Rainfall Index (NRI) (mm/yr) 1963–2011. Source: data analysis – FAO 2013. AQUASTAT Database, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and World Development Indicators 2014.
  5. 5. Land under cereal production in some SEMCs 1980–2012 (hectares) Source: World Development Indicators, 2014
  6. 6. Self-sufficiency index for cereals in some SEMCs Data Source: World Development Indicators, 2014
  7. 7. • Strong dependency from foodstuff imports • High percentage of population under or close to the poverty line • Political effects: disruption of the Authoritarian Bargain Model. In this model, autocratic leaders provided their citizens with some economic benefits (welfare and public employment programs) in return for consent to relinquish political rights The vulnerability of SEMC’s to the global food crisis
  8. 8. The geopolitics of water and land in MENA region The international competition for water involves: •Renewable water ressources: international river basin (Jordan, Tigris and Euphrates, Nile) • Non renewable water resources: shared fossil aquifers (Disi, Nubian Sunstone Aquifer, North-Western Sahara Aquifer System, SASS) •
  9. 9. The South Valley Development Project : Aree valorizzate tra il 1997 e il 2004 (1.300.000 feddan) Progetti in fase di realizzazione (1.120.000 feddan) Aree da valorizzare entro il 2017 (980.000 feddan)
  10. 10. Changing power relations on the Nile • SVDP : a new claim jeopardizing initiatives of upstream countries • The counter-hegemonic strategy of co-riparians Ethiopia and Sudan (Millennium Dam, Mérowé Dam) • The double-edged Hydropolitics of Egypt
  11. 11. The strategic role of non renewable fossil aquifers • Localisation for 98,5 % in MENA countries • Saudi Arabia, Libya and Algeria account for 85% of world total withdrawl • Allocation of fossil water mainly to agriculture (86 % in Saudi Arabia, 71 % in Libya, 35 % in Algeria) Fonte: Atlas of Transboundary Aquifers, UNESCO, Internationally Shared Aquifer Resources Management (ISARM) Programme, 2009
  12. 12. Transnational land deals as a new driver of conflict over land and water • Definition of land grabbing: the purchase or leasing of agricultural land in developing countries • Investor countries: countries with limited water endowments and strong food dependency • Target countries: concentration on selected countries with specific characteristics
  13. 13. Paese investitore Settori Paesi di destinazione Area in negoziazione (ha) Area negoziata (ha) Algeria Agricoltura Costa d'avorio 300.000 unknown Libia Agricoltura Mali, Mozambico, Senegal 120.000 29.950 Egitto Agricoltura Sud Sudan, Tanzania, Sudan 141.890 243.785 Israele Agricoltura, foreste, biocombustibili Costa d'avorio, Etiopia, Vietnam, Cambogia, Colombia 90.000 37.700 Giordania Agricoltura, allevamento Sudan 25.000 25.000 Turchia Agricoltura Tanzania, Etiopia 17.000 23.000 Kuwait Agricoltura, biocombustibili Sudan 60.702 60.702 Qatar Agricoltura, industria Sudan, Malesia unknown 106.500 Arabia Saudita Agricoltura, biocombustibili Turchia, Argentina, Ucraina, Egitto, Etiopia, Marocco, Mali, Mauritania, Sudan, Senegal, Sud Sudan 1.348.024 1.568.218 Emirati Arabi Agricoltura, foreste Pakistan, Filippine, Egitto, Marocco, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Sud Sudan, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Etiopia 451.322 2.819.223 Investors in MENA countries Fonte: Landmatrix.org 2014
  14. 14. The involvement of MENA countries in land deals Pays investisseursPays destinataires Colombia Argentina Marocco Mauritania Senegal Mali Etiopia Sudan Sud Sudan Tanzania Mozambico ZimbabweNamibia Pakistan Cambogia Vietnam Filippine Costa d'avorio Sierra Leone Ghana Algeria Libia Egitto Arabia Saudita Emirati Arabi Turchia Malesia Kuwait Qatar Fonte: Landmatrix.org 2014
  15. 15. Investment in land of Egypt Sudan Sud Sudan Tanzania Source: Landmatrix.org 2014
  16. 16. A new scenario in the global food market • Impredictability of global food production due to climatic change • Economic and political dependency of food importers from food exporters • Water and food security inter-linked strategic issues influencing the geopolitical equilibrium at national and global scale

by Eugenia Ferragina, Senior researcher, Institute of Studies on Mediterranean Societies (ISSM), Italian National Research Council (CNR), Naples at IAI-OCP international seminar on "Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture in the Euro-Mediterranean Area", Rome – February 2, 2015

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