Small Wind, Big Future?  Pete Allen C.E.O.
Evance – formerly known as Iskra Wind Turbines <ul><li>Evance is the new name for Iskra Wind Turbines, to support our inte...
Characteristics of Small Wind <ul><li>Product </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Market </li></ul><ul><li>Cost...
Small wind – Product Characteristics <ul><li>Define small wind as 3kW – 50kW, on free-standing towers – 10m – 20m high </l...
Small wind – Technology <ul><li>Mercedes McLaren SLR </li></ul><ul><ul><li>0 – 60mph: 3.8 seconds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
Small wind – Market <ul><li>Current market is predominantly developed world – UK, North America, Europe </li></ul><ul><li>...
Small wind – Costs <ul><li>Predominantly manufactured in high cost economies </li></ul><ul><li>Volumes only hundreds per y...
The economics of small wind and the Importance of Volume
Small wind – Current Economics <ul><li>How does small wind compare to other energy sources? </li></ul><ul><li>Small wind i...
Cost/kWh generated Maturity of technology & market   Small Wind x1 Big Wind x .5 Solar PV x2 Diesel Genset x2.3 Volume 00’...
Costs vs. Volume – Conclusions <ul><li>An Evance Iskra R9000 has roughly the same manufactured cost as a Ford Focus! </li>...
The cyclical effect of increasing volumes <ul><li>Imagine market reaches 10,000 units/year ~ £150m </li></ul><ul><ul><li>o...
Conclusions – the Future of Small wind <ul><li>The UK leads the world in small wind technology </li></ul><ul><li>The techn...
This Future will be delivered by: <ul><li>Governments: Costs of inconsistent and unnecessary barriers must be removed </li...
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Small Wind Big Future Iskra/Evance

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Pete Allen, CEO, Iskra Wind Turbines
BWEA, International Small Wind Conference
April 2009

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Small Wind Big Future Iskra/Evance

  1. 1. Small Wind, Big Future? Pete Allen C.E.O.
  2. 2. Evance – formerly known as Iskra Wind Turbines <ul><li>Evance is the new name for Iskra Wind Turbines, to support our international expansion and new products </li></ul><ul><li>Evance, founded in 1999, design and manufacture small wind turbines in the UK, based on expertise gained in designing utility scale turbines </li></ul><ul><li>Our lead product is the Evance Iskra R9000, a 5kW turbine typically mounted on a 12m free standing tower </li></ul><ul><li>Producing 9000kWh of energy per year (at a 5m/s site), our main markets are rural and semi-rural residential homes, schools, farms, and light commercial. </li></ul>
  3. 3. Characteristics of Small Wind <ul><li>Product </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Market </li></ul><ul><li>Costs </li></ul>
  4. 4. Small wind – Product Characteristics <ul><li>Define small wind as 3kW – 50kW, on free-standing towers – 10m – 20m high </li></ul><ul><li>On a ‘human’ scale – ‘tree-sized’ or lamp-post’ sized and so blend into the environment </li></ul><ul><li>Generate useful amounts of energy – e.g. Evance Iskra R9000 will produce sufficient for two homes </li></ul><ul><li>For the individual on-grid owner, selling surplus energy to the grid is a key part of the economics </li></ul><ul><li>Distinct from Micro wind – c. 1kW, often building mounted </li></ul><ul><li>Distinct from Utility scale wind – e.g. wind farms –’power station replacement’ </li></ul><ul><li>Enables distributed generation – no transmission losses </li></ul>
  5. 5. Small wind – Technology <ul><li>Mercedes McLaren SLR </li></ul><ul><ul><li>0 – 60mph: 3.8 seconds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>466kW, 7000rpm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerodynamics – vital </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Engineering difficulty – hard </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Evance Iskra R9000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>0 – 60mph: never </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5kW, 220rpm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerodynamics – vital </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Engineering difficulty – harder? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Small wind turbines are exponentially harder to engineer than micro wind </li></ul><ul><li>Interface between aerodynamics, electrical, mechanical and structural loading very complex and difficult to optimise </li></ul><ul><li>Expertise to design and engineer is globally thin on the ground </li></ul><ul><li>UK leads the world in this technology </li></ul>Max wind speed over aerodynamic surface = c. 240 mph Max wind speed over aerodynamic surface = c. 150 mph
  6. 6. Small wind – Market <ul><li>Current market is predominantly developed world – UK, North America, Europe </li></ul><ul><li>UK & USA are biggest markets – USA set to expand rapidly with new incentive scheme </li></ul><ul><li>UK will hopefully follow suit when appropriate incentive mechanism is implemented (Feed-in Tariff) </li></ul><ul><li>Predominantly On-Grid applications, some Off-Grid </li></ul><ul><li>Volumes are hundreds of small turbines per year </li></ul><ul><li>USA leads in market volumes and Government support – including finance and expertise for R & D </li></ul>
  7. 7. Small wind – Costs <ul><li>Predominantly manufactured in high cost economies </li></ul><ul><li>Volumes only hundreds per year - very low in manufacturing terms </li></ul><ul><li>In the UK, planning and grid connection permission accounts for up to 10% of the installed cost </li></ul><ul><li>The difficulty and inconsistency of planning and grid connection is estimated to reduce sales by half – reducing volume and increasing sales costs </li></ul><ul><li>Low volumes mean installation costs are also relatively high </li></ul><ul><li>Against this cost background, what are the current economics? </li></ul>
  8. 8. The economics of small wind and the Importance of Volume
  9. 9. Small wind – Current Economics <ul><li>How does small wind compare to other energy sources? </li></ul><ul><li>Small wind is already approaching grid electricity costs, delivered </li></ul><ul><li>Small wind is the most economic distributed electricity source available: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2 times more cost effective than solar PV or diesel generation </li></ul></ul>Unsubsidised cost over 20 year life, order of magnitude, UK prices 15 15 Small Wind 35 35 Diesel Genset 30 30 Solar PV 10 5-7 Big Wind 10 2 – x? Grid Delivered Cost p/kWh Generated Cost p/kWh Source
  10. 10. Cost/kWh generated Maturity of technology & market Small Wind x1 Big Wind x .5 Solar PV x2 Diesel Genset x2.3 Volume 00’s 000’s 00,000’s Millions No reduction possible Some reduction possible > 50% reduction possible Costs vs Volume – where are we now? Cost/volume curve
  11. 11. Costs vs. Volume – Conclusions <ul><li>An Evance Iskra R9000 has roughly the same manufactured cost as a Ford Focus! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>but is only one quarter of the weight </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>and has c. 30 times fewer components </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Volume production will clearly reduce costs – by up to 80% </li></ul><ul><li>This would enable a reduction in installed cost by 50% </li></ul><ul><li>Small wind would become economically viable unsubsidised if produced in sufficient volumes </li></ul><ul><li>E.g. same volumes as Solar PV, heavily subsidised by UK, USA and European Governments </li></ul><ul><li>No technology leap is required – it exists now ! </li></ul><ul><li>All that is required is volume </li></ul>
  12. 12. The cyclical effect of increasing volumes <ul><li>Imagine market reaches 10,000 units/year ~ £150m </li></ul><ul><ul><li>or 60% of the UK Government pledge on electric vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>or c. 20% of just one new car model </li></ul></ul>Large volume increase minimises cost Increased volume reduces costs Improved economics generate significantly higher demand <ul><li>Result: Small Wind rapidly achieves full economic potential </li></ul><ul><li>Mass market, and significant role in CO2 reduction </li></ul>
  13. 13. Conclusions – the Future of Small wind <ul><li>The UK leads the world in small wind technology </li></ul><ul><li>The technical barriers to entry are high </li></ul><ul><li>Current volumes are very low, so costs are high… </li></ul><ul><li>… but small wind is already the most economic distributed generation technology </li></ul><ul><li>High volumes would reduce costs substantially, to point of mass market </li></ul><ul><li>There is no requirement for new technology – it is all available </li></ul><ul><li>But there is a requirement for design for high volume </li></ul>
  14. 14. This Future will be delivered by: <ul><li>Governments: Costs of inconsistent and unnecessary barriers must be removed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Minimal but sensible planning and grid connection </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Governments: Stop ‘love affair’ with Solar PV </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology blind incentives – let the market decide </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Governments: Incentives sufficient to rapidly expand market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Appropriate level of Feed-in Tariff </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Governments: support for Product Development for higher volumes </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturers: Deliver high reliability with much lower costs </li></ul><ul><li>Market: Economic renewable energy generation on mass scale </li></ul><ul><li>Government: Subsidies eventually phased out </li></ul><ul><li>The UK can, and should, take the lead </li></ul>
  15. 15. Thank you

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