Oxford Farming Conference Report


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Farmers Week's summary of the Power in Agriculure report produced for the 2012 Oxford Farming Conference

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Oxford Farming Conference Report

  1. 1. Key findings
  2. 2. Power in Agriculture Report looks at where the economic, political and natural resource power lies in world agriculture Asks what does this mean for UK farmers? Commissioned by Oxford Farming Conference for 2012 Carried out by SAC’s Rural Policy Centre
  3. 3. Summary of conclusions UK relatively small player in ag markets but punches above weight in global power The most powerful countries for agriculture: 1) United States 2) EU27 3=) China 3=) Russia 4) UK 5) Japan 6) Australasia Farmers in UK face significant pressures and position as an agricultural player depends on its ability to become significantly more productive
  4. 4. Regional Power Index forAgriculture
  5. 5. Economic powerEconomically the big power players are the United States and the EU-27Major trading nations plus bases of transnational corporations in supply of ag products
  6. 6. Economic power cont... Top 20 countries account for 78% of global exports and 70% of global imports Four companies account for 75% and 90% of global grain trade Seven companies control virtually all fertiliser supply
  7. 7. Top 20 importers
  8. 8. Top exporters
  9. 9. Yearly wheat imports of world’s topimporters
  10. 10. Yearly wheat export of world’s topexporters
  11. 11. Yearly imports of beef and veal
  12. 12. Yearly exports of beef and veal
  13. 13. Where are key corporations?
  14. 14. Global wheat export predictions
  15. 15. Economic power – the future Power currently concentrated in North America and Europe Trade projections indicate unlikely to change up to 2020
  16. 16.  China and Brazil have clear advantages in some commodity markets, but corporate power is lagging Export capabilities of the EU-27 predicted to decline in next 10 years unless policy changes to increase productivity growth
  17. 17. Political power Political power relevant to agriculture concentrated in hands of United States, major EU countries and some others within G7 But EU will have to confront difficulties and competition for market access from emerging economies like China, India and Brazil
  18. 18. Natural resources UK relatively poorly endowed in global terms in critical natural resources used in agriculture Emerging economies better placed in terms of water and energy endowments ie Brazil, China, Russia Water-intensive, fertiliser-intensive and energy- intensive agricultural practices of European countries are unlikely to be sustainable in long-term
  19. 19. Phosphate reserves
  20. 20. Conclusions for UK farmers The UK punches above its weight in terms of trade, corporate and political power, but it is behind Russia and China in terms of overall power thanks to its low natural resources While Europe is expected to avoid the worst effects of climate change, the UK in particular faces challenges in terms of land, water and non-renewable energy
  21. 21. More conclusions... Increasingly tight supplies mean European production has to become more efficient if current production is to be sustained. If the EU lost its economic and political powers, the situation for European agriculture could be even worse in future Government policy needs to look more carefully at improving research and development to help farmers increase production, while export capabilities could be hit unless trade rules are altered
  22. 22. And finally... While emerging economies such as China and Brazil have advantages in certain commodity markets, their corporate power in agriculture is still not on a par with the USA and the EU, especially UK, France and Germany. However, a major challenge is to balance corporate power with consumer and farmer power domestically