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Climate Action Plan and other policy proposals

Tadhg Buckley, IFA Director of Policy/Chief Economist

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Climate Action Plan and
other policy proposals
Tadhg Buckley
Director of Policy/Chief
Economist
1
Sectoral Emissions Ceilings
• Additional 5.25Mt of reduction earmarked under “unallocated savings”. Will be allocated on a whole
of economy basis during second carbon budget. Savings from new technologies which are as yet
unidentified.
• LULUCF target has been deferred for 18 months to allow a land use analysis study to be completed.
Sector 2018 Emissions
(Mt CO2eq)
2030 Ceiling
(Mt CO2eq)
Final Reduction
Target
Electricity 10.5 3 75%
Transport 12 6 50%
Buildings 9 5 44%
Industry 7 4 35%
Agriculture 23 17.25 25%
LULUCF 4.8 TBC TBC
Core Agriculture Actions identified under
Climate Action Plan
Target Action Key Enablers MtCO2eq
Reduce Inorganic N use
Max 300k usage by 2030 (25% reduction on
2018 levels)
Supports for widespread
adoption of clover in swards
↓ 0.5 – 0.65
Increased adoption of
Protected Urea
90%-100% uptake of protected urea on
grassland farms
Ensure adequate availability at
appropriate time in season
↓ 0.43 –
0.57
Earlier Finishing of beef cattle
Target 22-23 month average by 2030 (from
25.7 months in 2021)
Farmer incentive
↓ 0.73
Reduce age of 1st calving Reduce age of 1st calving of suckler cows Farmer incentive ↓ 0.1
Improved animal breeding by
focusing on low methane
traits
Breeding programme to identify low
methane animals
Support ICBF low-methane
breeding programme
↓ 0.3 – 0.5
Increase organic farming area
Increase from to 450k ha by 2030 (6 times
current area)
Farmer incentive and market
development
↓ 0.3
Improved animal feeding
Reduce crude protein levels at grass and
utilise feed additives during housing
Farmer incentive
↓ 0.6
Misc measures Extended grazing and slurry additives Farmer incentive ↓ 0.5
TOTAL (Mt) ↓ 3.4 – 4
TOTAL (% Reduction) ↓ 15– 17%
Additional Agriculture Actions identified
under Climate Action Plan
Target Action Key Enablers MtCO2eq
Feed additive use at grass Addition of slow-release pasture-based
feed additive
Research to confirm proof-of-
concept & farmer incentive
↓ 0.6
Diversification from livestock
farming into Anaerobic
Digestion
Production of up to 5.7 TWh of
Biomethane by 2030
Construction of 200 AD plants
Substantial State support (both
policy and funding)
Appropriate credit to agri sector
for emissions mitigated
Require c. 115k ha of land eq.
↓ 1.5
Diversification from livestock
farming into tillage
Increase tillage area to 400k ha by 2030
(increase of 51.5k ha on 2021 levels)
Farmer incentive
TOTAL (Mt) ↓ 2.1
TOTAL (% Reduction) ↓ 9%
TOTAL Core (Mt) ↓ 3.4 – 4
TOTAL Additional (Mt) ↓ 2.1
Total Combined (Mt) ↓ 5.5 – 6.1
Total Combined (% Reduction) ↓ 24 – 26%
LULUCF Actions identified under Climate Action Plan
Target Action
Increase afforestation rates by
68,000 ha by 2030
Increase afforestation rates to 8,000 ha/annum
for 2023 onwards
(quadruple 2022 afforestation levels)
Improve management of
grasslands on mineral soils
Improved carbon sequestration on 450,000 ha
of land by 2030
Reduced farming intensity on
drained organic soils
80,000 ha of drained organic soils “farmed at
reduced intensity”
Wetlands 41,700 ha of peatlands to be “funded and
rehabilitated”
Nitrates Action Programme
Impact Analysis - Findings
Total Per Impacted Farm
Scenario 1:Additional Land Required
(no cow reduction)
27,673 hectares 21.5 acres/farm
Scenario 2: Cow reduction required
(no additional land)
52,381 cows 16 dairy cows/farm
Scenario 2: Potential reduction in
milk supply
(assuming no additional land)
314m litres 100k litres/farm
• The potential move from 250kg to 220kg organic N will significantly impact dairy
farmers currently operating under derogation.
• The following is IFA estimates of the potential impact:

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Climate Action Plan and other policy proposals

  • 1. Climate Action Plan and other policy proposals Tadhg Buckley Director of Policy/Chief Economist 1
  • 2. Sectoral Emissions Ceilings • Additional 5.25Mt of reduction earmarked under “unallocated savings”. Will be allocated on a whole of economy basis during second carbon budget. Savings from new technologies which are as yet unidentified. • LULUCF target has been deferred for 18 months to allow a land use analysis study to be completed. Sector 2018 Emissions (Mt CO2eq) 2030 Ceiling (Mt CO2eq) Final Reduction Target Electricity 10.5 3 75% Transport 12 6 50% Buildings 9 5 44% Industry 7 4 35% Agriculture 23 17.25 25% LULUCF 4.8 TBC TBC
  • 3. Core Agriculture Actions identified under Climate Action Plan Target Action Key Enablers MtCO2eq Reduce Inorganic N use Max 300k usage by 2030 (25% reduction on 2018 levels) Supports for widespread adoption of clover in swards ↓ 0.5 – 0.65 Increased adoption of Protected Urea 90%-100% uptake of protected urea on grassland farms Ensure adequate availability at appropriate time in season ↓ 0.43 – 0.57 Earlier Finishing of beef cattle Target 22-23 month average by 2030 (from 25.7 months in 2021) Farmer incentive ↓ 0.73 Reduce age of 1st calving Reduce age of 1st calving of suckler cows Farmer incentive ↓ 0.1 Improved animal breeding by focusing on low methane traits Breeding programme to identify low methane animals Support ICBF low-methane breeding programme ↓ 0.3 – 0.5 Increase organic farming area Increase from to 450k ha by 2030 (6 times current area) Farmer incentive and market development ↓ 0.3 Improved animal feeding Reduce crude protein levels at grass and utilise feed additives during housing Farmer incentive ↓ 0.6 Misc measures Extended grazing and slurry additives Farmer incentive ↓ 0.5 TOTAL (Mt) ↓ 3.4 – 4 TOTAL (% Reduction) ↓ 15– 17%
  • 4. Additional Agriculture Actions identified under Climate Action Plan Target Action Key Enablers MtCO2eq Feed additive use at grass Addition of slow-release pasture-based feed additive Research to confirm proof-of- concept & farmer incentive ↓ 0.6 Diversification from livestock farming into Anaerobic Digestion Production of up to 5.7 TWh of Biomethane by 2030 Construction of 200 AD plants Substantial State support (both policy and funding) Appropriate credit to agri sector for emissions mitigated Require c. 115k ha of land eq. ↓ 1.5 Diversification from livestock farming into tillage Increase tillage area to 400k ha by 2030 (increase of 51.5k ha on 2021 levels) Farmer incentive TOTAL (Mt) ↓ 2.1 TOTAL (% Reduction) ↓ 9% TOTAL Core (Mt) ↓ 3.4 – 4 TOTAL Additional (Mt) ↓ 2.1 Total Combined (Mt) ↓ 5.5 – 6.1 Total Combined (% Reduction) ↓ 24 – 26%
  • 5. LULUCF Actions identified under Climate Action Plan Target Action Increase afforestation rates by 68,000 ha by 2030 Increase afforestation rates to 8,000 ha/annum for 2023 onwards (quadruple 2022 afforestation levels) Improve management of grasslands on mineral soils Improved carbon sequestration on 450,000 ha of land by 2030 Reduced farming intensity on drained organic soils 80,000 ha of drained organic soils “farmed at reduced intensity” Wetlands 41,700 ha of peatlands to be “funded and rehabilitated”
  • 6. Nitrates Action Programme Impact Analysis - Findings Total Per Impacted Farm Scenario 1:Additional Land Required (no cow reduction) 27,673 hectares 21.5 acres/farm Scenario 2: Cow reduction required (no additional land) 52,381 cows 16 dairy cows/farm Scenario 2: Potential reduction in milk supply (assuming no additional land) 314m litres 100k litres/farm • The potential move from 250kg to 220kg organic N will significantly impact dairy farmers currently operating under derogation. • The following is IFA estimates of the potential impact:
  • 7. Water Quality Trends - 2013-2021 Source: EPA 2020 & 2021 data point to an improving trend
  • 8. Where will the land come from? Policy Land requirement Increased Afforestation rates 68,500 ha Anaerobic Digestion 115,000 ha Reduced farming intensity on drained organic soils 80,000 ha Potential impact of changes to Nitrates Action Programme 28,000 ha Increase in Tillage area 51,500 ha Total 384,700 ha Equivalent to c. 9% of total land area excl. rough grazing and commonage
  • 9. EU Farm Policy Direction • The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was established to foster food production at affordable prices within Europe • In real terms, the level of Pillar 1 funding Ireland receives from CAP has fallen by c. 20% over past 15 years • EU Green Deal, Farm to Fork and Fit for 55 policies now place environmental regulations at the heart of EU Farm policy • Latest CAP programme designed to reduce food production: • Continued reduction in funding in real terms • Eco Schemes • Increased non-productive areas • In general, most productive farmers taking the largest cuts in payments
  • 10. Other Policy Issues on horizon • National and EU biodiversity plans (nature restoration law) • Industrial Emissions Directive • Land use review • Carbon Farming • EU Taxonomy regulation All above policies likely to inhibit rather than promote food production