The spotlight is on pollsters in the UK, following the performance of the polls at the 2015 General Election. Are we alone in facing this challenge, or is it a global issue? Does the experience in other countries point to what we should be doing in the UK?
Ipsos has many of the leading polling experts from around the world, and we brought them together in London to provide unique combined insight. Our panel members from the US, Canada, Italy and Sweden talked us through the role and challenges of polling in their countries and what we need to do to get it right. They also updated us on the political landscape of their countries, with outlines of the major elections they have recently had, and in the case of the US, the on-going race to the White House.
1. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 1
Death of
Polling?
The
#ipsosmorilive
2. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 2
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI
Agenda
Julia Clark, Ipsos USA
David Ahlin, Ipsos Sweden
Nando Pagnoncelli, Ipsos Italy
Darrell Bricker, Ipsos Canada
Q&A
3. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 3
Ben Page
Ipsos MORI
ben.page@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
4. 4The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Sadly not everywhere looks like this …
Average candidate error in US Presidential Elections (INDIV CAND SHARE)
1936
6%
1.5%
2012
5. 5The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
There’s a global
Ipsos has carried out election
conversation going
on about polling
polling in c30 countries since 2007
6. 6The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
And pollsters all around the world are
How do we achieve a
representative sample?
How do we predict
turnout accurately?
having to face up to hard questions
How do we make best
use of the increasing range
of methodologies open to us?
How do we ensure our polls
are reported well and
understood among the
media, politicians
and the public?How do we avoid other
biases, such as social
desirability?
7. 7The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
... although our answers
Size/diversity of population
Turnout levels/compulsory voting
Stable party system or new insurgents?
Generational declines in party loyalty
Societal/cultural context Media expectations vs budgets
and levels of
polling transparency?
Survey researchers or
moving towards big
data modelling?
National polls vs
local/state-level polling?
Traditional face-to-face
methods vs new
or mixed modes?
And in any one country
likely to be good and
bad examples of each!
may be very different!
8. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 8
UK
experience
The
9. 9The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
British Polling Council
Selection of samples
(their main explanation)
Representativeness of sample
(key among explanations)
Correction for likelihood
of voting (less important)
Late swing (some signs,
but not that important)
Herding
(unproven)
Inquiry Interim findings
10. 10The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
from actual – except Labour, overestimated
36%
35%
11%
5%
8%
5%
Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result
Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
37.7%
31.2%
12.9%
3.8%
8.1%
6.4%
11. 11The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead too
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
many Labour voters and not enough non-voters
Conservatives
Labour
Non voters
11.3m
12.5m
9.3m
12.2m
20.5m
15.4m
Actual
Implied from final poll
12. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 12
Ipsos MORI’s view:
We need to take a two-pronged approach
– tackle the problem of more politically
engaged taking part and also making
sure we can detect differential shift
in turnout over-claim between parties
13. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 13
Ipsos MORI’s view:
Healthy scepticism
not the death of polling
14. 14The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
We need to improve representation of
No easy answers to this
(especially bearing in
mind budget and time
Constraints)
politically disengaged/non-voters in our samples
Already introduced newspaper weighting (for example to reduce
proportion of broadsheet readers). In four months from
September to December 2015 this:
• Reduced the proportion of claimed likely voters by an average of 3
percentage points a month
• Primarily at the expense of the Labour share (down on average by 3 points,
Conservatives up by 1.75 points)
But will continue other experiments (for example changes in quotas, and so on)
15. 15The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Random samples after election though do not appear
to be hugely more representative than our quota ones
Election
result
Final telephone
polls (average)
Final Ipsos MORI
poll
British Social
Attitudes
British Election
Study1
Ipsos MORI post-
GE past vote
(June-July)
Voting
intentions2
Difference
from result
Voting
intentions
Difference
from result
Report of
vote
Difference
from result
Report of
vote
Difference
from result
Report of
vote
Difference
from result
% % % % % %
Con. 37.7 34.5 -3.2 36 -1.7 39.7 +2.0 40.6 +2.9 37.9 +0.2
Labour 31.2 34.3 +3.1 35 +3.8 33.6 +2.4 32.7 +1.5 32.5 +1.3
Other
parties 31.2 31.2 0.0 29 -2.2 26.7 -4.5 26.7 -4.5 29.6 -1.6
16. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 16
The Death of Polling?
So much more than
a horse race
17. 17The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
So much more
richness in the
polls to help
us understand
public opinion
18. 18The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Not to mention giving voters a
chance to express their views
19. 19The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Or using twitter analytics to get live, real-time reactions
to the big events: 239,000 tweets in the 2nd debate
Twitter ‘worm’ – real time
analysis of reaction to
second leader debate
(2,500+ per minute)
20. 20The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
And using new digital techniques to get closer to voters
7426
posts across
340 forum
topics
c.2000
members
from across
the UK
Over
7500
survey
responses
21. The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 21
Julia Clark
Ipsos USA
julia.clark@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
24. Current US Political Polling Methodologies
PHONE
RDD
Lists
IVR (Robo)
TRADITIONAL
ONLINE
Probability
Panel Only
Lists
Blended
NONTRADITIONAL
ONLINE
SurveyMonkey
Google
29. ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT THEME:
But Differential Framing of Problems & Causes
The rich are to blame
Middle Class Economics
Americans First
Restarting American
Exceptionalism
VS.
30. Trump & Sanders are the Response
17%
5% 5% 6%
13%
3% 3%
29%
19%
Trump
Cruz
Carson
Otheroutsiders(Paul,
Fiorina,etc)
Establishment(Bush,
Rubio,etc)
Wouldn'tvote
O'Malley
Clinton
Sanders
Republicans (46%) Democrats (51%)
46% of Americans are
supporting “nontraditional”
candidates
31. Political Fundamentals Speak to a Republican Year
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35%
Government Approval Rating
OddsofWinning
Incumbent Party’s Odds of Winning White House
SUCCESSORS
INCUMBENTS
(2012)
46. Immigration most pressing issue and Voter support
for Sweden Democrats
5
8
13
20
20
40
6
7
9
12
14
17
0
20
40
June-2010 June-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 Jun-2015 Jan-2016
Immigration/integration most pressing issue Voter support for the Sweden Democrats
47. Immigration most pressing issue and google searches
for “refugee” in Swedish
8 13
20 20
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
June-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 June 2015 Jan-2016
Number of people say immigration/integration issues are most pressing issue
The number of searches on the word
”Refugee” on Google in Swedish
during the same time period
48. 17.2
23.9
0
20
Average voter support Telephone based methods Average voter support Web based methods
Voter support Sweden Democrats based on
method of measurement Feb 2016