Perils of Perception: Perception Gaps

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Perils of Perception

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Bobby Duffy Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, Visiting Senior Fellow, King’s College London Perception gaps

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think are: We have a very odd view of our population... Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Census 2011, NOMIS; 2011 Census, Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales (July 2012) ONS; Families and Households, 2012 (November 2012) ONS.. 34 36 30 22 24 28 Mean 59 16 11 8 5 3 Actual ChristianAged 65+Black/AsianUnemployedMuslimSingle parents

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London In your opinion, what proportion of girls under the age of 16 years in Britain get pregnant each year? Extraordinary view of teenage girls... Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 5 24 5 16 8 5 7 31 1% or less 2%-5% 6%-9% 10%-19% 20%-29% 30%-39% 40%+ Don’t…Don’t know Mean 15% Actual 0.6%

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London In your opinion, is the number of people coming to live in the UK from other countries too high, too low or about right? Lot of concern about immigration.... Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 76 14 2 8 Too high About right Too low Don't know Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Legitimate concerns, driven by number of factors...

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London ...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office. What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? 31 13 Mean unprompted Actual

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London ...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? 26 31 13 Mean prompted Mean unprompted Actual Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London According to the last Census in 2011, the percentage of the UK population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher? Why do people believe it is higher? Base: 376 British adults aged 16-75 (all who thought the percentage of immigrants in the UK was 26% or higher) Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 56 46 36 34 23 19 16 10 1 1 3 People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted I still think the proportion is much higher than 13% What I see in my local area What I see when I visit other towns/cities I was just guessing Information seen on TV Information seen in newspapers The experiences of friends and family I misunderstood the question Other Don’t know

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 We’re not alone... Source: Sides, J. and Citrin, J. (2007) How large the huddled masses? The causes and consequences of Public misperceptions about immigrant populations. Paper presented at 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Sciences Association, Chicago, IL. 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 Actual percentage foreign-born Estimated percentage foreign-born Lux SwitzUS UK Port Italy Den Ger France

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Below are a number of statements about how Britain and our public services have changed over the last few years. For each one I would like you to tell me whether you think it is true or false: We’re too negative about crime trends – but... Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 51 83 Violent crime is rising 2013 2005 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Closing the gaps: Crime and public perceptions, (2005) Ipsos MORI; Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending December 2012, (April 2013) ONS; Police Service Strength England and Wales, 31 March 2012, (July 2012) Home Office. %True

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on? We’re very wrong on government spending... Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 45 38 30 29 26 24 16 14 4 11 Interest payments on the national debt Health Working age benefits Defence Overseas aid State pensions Education and schools Policing and criminal justice Transport Don’t know Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian; Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 38 30 24 16 45 29 4 26 14 11 £52bn £107bn Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on? ...easier to see when re-order by actual spend... Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Actual £48bn £82bn £37bn £8bn £74bn £6bn £12bn Interest payments on the national debt Health Working age benefits Defence Overseas aid State pensions Education and schools Policing and criminal justice Transport Don’t know Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian; Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London And which do you think the UK Government spends more on, Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) or state pensions? Pensions v JSA... Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 29 4.9 11 47 74.2 JSA Both the same Pension Actual spend (£bn) And which do you think the UK Government spends more on, Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) or state pensions? Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; A Survey of the UK Benefit System: IFS Briefing Note BN13 (November 2012) Institute for Fiscal Studies. 15x more on pensions....

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 What benefit changes do we support and expect to save the most? Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Support most Saves most Stopping child benefit at £50k+ Capping benefits at £26,000 “Bedroom tax” Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Joyce, R. Thought’s on a benefit cap (February 2012) IFS. Sharing the burden - How the older generation should suffer its share of the cuts: IEA Discussion Paper No. 34 (February 2011) IEA; A Survey of the UK Benefit System: IFS Briefing Note BN13, (November 2012) Institute for Fiscal Studies; Impact Assessment: Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill (January 2013) DWP; Hain, P. Why Labour is wrong to cut winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners, (June 2013) Huffington Post. Impact Assessment: Housing Benefit: Under occupation of social housing, (June 2012) DWP; Pensioners and the tax and benefit system: IFS Briefing Note BN130, (2012) IFS. Raising pension age to 66 £5bn £290m £1.7bn £500m Popularity affects estimates...? or £185m

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)? Biggest misperception on benefit fraud... Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Mean estimate £24 Actual 70p Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London When you were answering the last question, which of the following activities, if any, were you thinking of as fraud? Although may be measuring different things? Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 79 75 67 55 46 42 34 32 9 People providing false information to claim more benefits than they are entitled to People faking disabilities or illness Not reporting changes in circumstances e.g. a partner moving in Working cash-in-hand People on unemployment benefit not trying to find work People from abroad/immigrants claiming benefits People claiming benefits who haven’t paid any taxes/national insurance People having more children so that they are entitled to more benefits Don’t know } 45%

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Misperceptions/ innumeracy Why do these gaps exist? Cognitive errors - Statistical literacy: difficulty with large/small numbers; levels v trends etc - Social psychology: availability heuristic; focus on negative information; framing/anchoring important; take time to notice Media/political rhetoric - Vivid stories; less emphasis on scale “Emotional innumeracy” - Reflects concerns, not facts - Motivated reasoning: “accuracy goals” vs “directional goals” Measurement/ definitional - Imprecision in questions - ...but also talking about different things

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London In our own way, we’re like Einstein... “If the facts don’t fit the theory, change the facts...”