© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
1
Perils of Perception
A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
2
These are the findings from our 14
country study looking at how accurate –
or inaccurate – people are when asked
to estimate basic facts about their
population or social issues.
It shows how wrong we often are:
Perceptions are not reality…

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
3
IN YOUR OPINION WHAT
PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED
BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE
BIRTH EACH YEAR?

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
4
24 3
18 1
17 0.5
16 2
15 1
16 3
15 2
14 0.4
14 0.2
14 1
12 0.6
11 0.7
11 0.5
8 0.7
+21
+17
+17
+14
+14
+14
+14
+14
+13
+13
+12
+11
+10
+7
US
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Canada
Great Britain
Australia
Germany
South Korea
Spain
France
Belgium
Japan
Sweden
AVG.
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL
Q. In your opinion
what percentage of
girls aged between 15
and 19 give birth each
year?
People across the
world hugely
overestimate the
proportion of
teenagers who
give birth each
year.

25
20
15
10
5
© Ipsos MORI
People across the world hugely
overestimate the proportion of
teenagers who give birth each
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
5
Average guess %
year.
Q. In your opinion
what percentage of
girls aged between 15
and 19 give birth each
year?
% Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year
0
0 1 2 3 4

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
6
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE
POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE
IMMIGRANTS TO THIS
COUNTRY?

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
7
30 7
32 13
29 10
28 10
16 2
35 21
14 1.75
24 13
23 12
23 13
10 2
10 2
23 16
35 28
+23
+19
+19
+18
+14
+14
+12
+11
+11
+10
+8
+8
+7
+7
Italy
US
Belgium
France
Hungary
Canada
Poland
Great Britain
Spain
Germany
Japan
South Korea
Sweden
Australia
AVG.
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL
Q. What percentage of
the population do you
think are immigrants to
this country?
All countries
overestimate
their level of
immigration

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
© Ipsos MORI
overestimate their
level of immigration
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
8
Average guess %
Q. What percentage of
the population do you
think are immigrants to
All countries
% Immigrants to this country
0
this country?
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
9
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
MUSLIM?

© Ipsos MORI
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
10
31 8
29 6
20 2
18 2
21 5
20 4
15 1
16 2
19 6
17 5
7 0.1
5 0.4
5 0.1
4 0.1
+23
+23
+18
+16
+16
+16
+14
+14
+13
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
+12
+7
+5
+5
+4
France
Belgium
Canada
Australia
Great Britain
Italy
US
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Hungary
South Korea
Poland
Japan
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are Muslim?
People in a
number of
countries
massively
overestimate
the proportion
of Muslims

Q. Out of every 100
People in a number of
countries massively
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
© Ipsos MORI
overestimate the proportion
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
11
Average guess %
of Muslims
% Muslims
0
people how many do
you think are Muslim?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
CHRISTIAN?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
12
National
Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
13
+13
+10
+9
-14
-14
-15
-15
-16
-18
-19
-20
-21
-22
South Korea
Japan
Hungary
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
Poland
Australia
Belgium
Sweden
Great Britain
Canada
US
42 29
12 2
62 53
58 58
69 83
49 63
62 77
79 94
45 61
46 64
48 67
39 59
49 69
56 78
% POINT DIFFERENCE
AVG.
TOO LOW TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are Christian?
In contrast to the
Muslim question,
majority-Christian
countries tend to
underestimate
how many people
count themselves
as Christian.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
14
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Average guess %
% Christians
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are Christian?
In contrast to the Muslim
question, majority-Christian
countries tend to underestimate
how many people count
themselves as Christian.
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
OVER 65?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
15
National
Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
16
48 21
42 15
39 14
43 18
37 14
36 14
40 18
41 19
38 18
37 17
40 21
41 25
32 16
33 19
+27
+27
+25
+25
+23
+22
+22
+22
+20
+20
+19
+16
+16
+14
Italy
Poland
Canada
Spain
Australia
US
Hungary
Belgium
France
Great Britain
Germany
Japan
South Korea
Sweden
AVG.
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL
Q. Out of every 100
people how many do
you think are over 65?
All countries
hugely
overestimate the
proportion of
their population
aged 65+

Q. Out of every 100
All countries hugely
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
© Ipsos MORI
overestimate the proportion
of their population aged 65+
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
17
Average guess %
% Over 65
0
people how many do
you think are over 65?
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE
VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO
YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST
ELECTION?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
18
National
Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
19
57 80
54 75
49 66
47 64
60 76
43 59
55 69
58 72
72 85
51 61
84 93
42 49
85 89
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW
-4
-1 57 58
-7
-10
-9
-17
-17
-16
-14
-14
-13
-16
-23
-21
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL
France
Italy
Great Britain
Hungary
South Korea
Japan
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Canada
Australia
Poland
Belgium
US
Q. Out of every 100
eligible voters how
many do you think
voted in the last
election?
All countries
underestimate
the proportion of
the population
that voted in the
last major
national
election

Q. Out of every 100
eligible voters how
All countries underestimate
the proportion of the
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
© Ipsos MORI
population that voted in the
last major national election
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
20
Average guess %
many do you think
% Voted in last election
0
voted in the last
election?
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low
40 50 60 70 80 90 100

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF
WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING
FOR WORK?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
21
National
Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
22
49 12
32 4
39 11
32 6
34 9
31 8
46 25
29 9
23 6
24 7
24 8
23 7
19 4
Italy +37
+28
+28
+26
+25
+23
+21
+20
+17
+17
+16
+16
+15
+14 20 6
South Korea
Hungary
US
Poland
Belgium
Spain
France
Australia
Great Britain
Sweden
Canada
Japan
Germany
AVG.
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL
Q. Out of every 100
people of working age
about how many do you
think are unemployed
and looking for work?
Unemployment
levels are
hugely
overestimated in
every country

Q. Out of every 100
Unemployment levels are
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
50
40
30
20
10
© Ipsos MORI
hugely overestimated in
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
23
0
people of working age
about how many do you
think are unemployed
and looking for work?
every country
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Average guess %
% Unemployed and looking for work
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE
EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A
CHILD BORN IN 2014?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
24
National
Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI
AVG.
GUESS ACTUAL
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
25
89 80
83 80
85 82
85 82
82 80
81 80
82 81
82 82
80 82
78 80
81 84
78 82
72 77
68 75
Q. What do you think
the life expectancy will
be of a child born in
2014?
+9
DIFFERENCE IN YEARS TOO LOW TOO HIGH
+3
+3
+3
+2
+1
+1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-5
-7
South Korea
Great Britain
France
Sweden
Germany
Belgium
Spain
Australia
Canada
US
Japan
Italy
Poland
Hungary
People in most
countries have
a fairly
accurate
picture of life
expectancy

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut
labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco
laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in
voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
26
70
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
Average guess %
Average life expectancy
Q. What do you think
the life expectancy will
be of a child born in
2014?
People in most
countries have a fairly
accurate picture of life
expectancy
The dashed line is a 45
degree line. Countries above
the line have, on average,
guessed too high while
countries below have
guessed too low

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
27
Looking across all questions,
we have calculated a
measure of how accurate
the population of each
country is.
This gives us our
“Index of Ignorance”

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
28
Italy
US
South Korea
Poland
Hungary
France
Canada
Belgium
Australia
Great Britain
Spain
Japan
Germany
Sweden
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
7th
2nd
10th
6th
11th
8th
14th
1st
13th
4th
3rd
12th
9th
5th
INDEX OF
IGNORANCE
Sweden
Germany
Japan
Spain
GB
US
Poland
Hungary
Italy
South Korea
Belgium
France
Canada
Australia
(Least accurate at top)

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
29
National
PerceptionsPERILS OF
PERCEPTION IN
BRITAIN

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
30
3 5 7
13
17
59
66
80
16
21
24 24
37 39
49
83
%
15-19 girls that
gave birth
%
Muslim
%
Unemployed
%
Immigrants
%
Over 65
%
Christian
%
Voted
Life
expectancy
PERILS OF
PERCEPTION
IN
BRITAIN
The British public are often very
wrong about the basic make-up of
their population and the scale of key
social issues such as unemployment
and behaviours like voting.
Actual Average guess

IMMIGRATION
Respondents who thought immigration was
more than double the actual figure said the
main reason they over-estimated is because
they believe illegal immigrants enter the
country without being counted.
© Ipsos MORI
People come into the country illegally so
60% aren’t counted
I still think the proportion is
49%
much higher
46%
33%
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
21%
11%
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
31
4%
3%
1%
19%
39%
What I see in my local area
What I see when I visit other towns/cities
I was just guessing
Information seen on TV
Information seen in
newspapers
The experiences of friends and family
Other
I misunderstood the question
Don’t know
% who thought
immigration is
26% or more
According to official statistics the percentage of the
British population that was born in another country is
actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is
much higher?
41%
Base: Asked of all who said 26%+

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
32
CRIME
Please tell me whether you think the following statement is
true or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain
25%
49%
26%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
%
TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't Know
A quarter of the
British public think
the murder rate is
rising – but half
(correctly) say it is
falling. More
people get this
correct in Britain
than any other
country

© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
33
• This study is based on a survey run on
Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26
August 2014
• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in
24 countries around the world via the
Ipsos Online Panel.
• For this study, 14 countries with high
internet penetration were included:
Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great
Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan,
Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and
the US.
• The research is based on an international
sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in
the US and Canada, and aged 16-64 in
all other countries. Sample size is
approximately 1,000 per country, with the
exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland,
South Korea and Sweden where each
have a sample of approximately 500
• Data are weighted to ensure that the
sample's composition reflects that of the
adult population according to the most
recent Census data in each country
• The “point difference” figures that show
differences between the “actual” and
“average guesses” may not match a
straight subtraction. This is due to
rounding, as the calculation is conducted
using decimal places

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
34 © Ipsos MORI
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
For more information, please contact:
Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research Institute
bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
@BobbyIpsosMORI