Perils of Perception - Global

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1 Perils of Perception A FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2 These are the findings from our 14 country study looking at how accurate – or inaccurate – people are when asked to estimate basic facts about their population or social issues. It shows how wrong we often are: Perceptions are not reality…

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 3 IN YOUR OPINION WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 4 24 3 18 1 17 0.5 16 2 15 1 16 3 15 2 14 0.4 14 0.2 14 1 12 0.6 11 0.7 11 0.5 8 0.7 +21 +17 +17 +14 +14 +14 +14 +14 +13 +13 +12 +11 +10 +7 US Poland Italy Hungary Canada Great Britain Australia Germany South Korea Spain France Belgium Japan Sweden AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year? People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year.

25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 5 Average guess % year. Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year? % Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year 0 0 1 2 3 4

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 6 WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY?

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 7 30 7 32 13 29 10 28 10 16 2 35 21 14 1.75 24 13 23 12 23 13 10 2 10 2 23 16 35 28 +23 +19 +19 +18 +14 +14 +12 +11 +11 +10 +8 +8 +7 +7 Italy US Belgium France Hungary Canada Poland Great Britain Spain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden Australia AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country? All countries overestimate their level of immigration

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI overestimate their level of immigration The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 8 Average guess % Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to All countries % Immigrants to this country 0 this country? 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 9 OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM?

© Ipsos MORI AVG. GUESS ACTUAL Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 10 31 8 29 6 20 2 18 2 21 5 20 4 15 1 16 2 19 6 17 5 7 0.1 5 0.4 5 0.1 4 0.1 +23 +23 +18 +16 +16 +16 +14 +14 +13 % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH +12 +7 +5 +5 +4 France Belgium Canada Australia Great Britain Italy US Spain Germany Sweden Hungary South Korea Poland Japan Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim? People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims

Q. Out of every 100 People in a number of countries massively Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI overestimate the proportion The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 11 Average guess % of Muslims % Muslims 0 people how many do you think are Muslim? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 12 National Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 13 +13 +10 +9 -14 -14 -15 -15 -16 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 South Korea Japan Hungary Germany Italy France Spain Poland Australia Belgium Sweden Great Britain Canada US 42 29 12 2 62 53 58 58 69 83 49 63 62 77 79 94 45 61 46 64 48 67 39 59 49 69 56 78 % POINT DIFFERENCE AVG. TOO LOW TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 14 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Average guess % % Christians Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian. The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 15 National Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 16 48 21 42 15 39 14 43 18 37 14 36 14 40 18 41 19 38 18 37 17 40 21 41 25 32 16 33 19 +27 +27 +25 +25 +23 +22 +22 +22 +20 +20 +19 +16 +16 +14 Italy Poland Canada Spain Australia US Hungary Belgium France Great Britain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65? All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+

Q. Out of every 100 All countries hugely Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 © Ipsos MORI overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+ The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 17 Average guess % % Over 65 0 people how many do you think are over 65? 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 18 National Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 19 57 80 54 75 49 66 47 64 60 76 43 59 55 69 58 72 72 85 51 61 84 93 42 49 85 89 % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW -4 -1 57 58 -7 -10 -9 -17 -17 -16 -14 -14 -13 -16 -23 -21 AVG. GUESS ACTUAL France Italy Great Britain Hungary South Korea Japan Spain Germany Sweden Canada Australia Poland Belgium US Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election? All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election

Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how All countries underestimate the proportion of the Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 © Ipsos MORI population that voted in the last major national election Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 20 Average guess % many do you think % Voted in last election 0 voted in the last election? The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 21 National Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 22 49 12 32 4 39 11 32 6 34 9 31 8 46 25 29 9 23 6 24 7 24 8 23 7 19 4 Italy +37 +28 +28 +26 +25 +23 +21 +20 +17 +17 +16 +16 +15 +14 20 6 South Korea Hungary US Poland Belgium Spain France Australia Great Britain Sweden Canada Japan Germany AVG. % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUAL Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work? Unemployment levels are hugely overestimated in every country

Q. Out of every 100 Unemployment levels are Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 50 40 30 20 10 © Ipsos MORI hugely overestimated in Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 23 0 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work? every country 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Average guess % % Unemployed and looking for work The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low

WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014? © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 24 National Perceptions

© Ipsos MORI AVG. GUESS ACTUAL Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 25 89 80 83 80 85 82 85 82 82 80 81 80 82 81 82 82 80 82 78 80 81 84 78 82 72 77 68 75 Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014? +9 DIFFERENCE IN YEARS TOO LOW TOO HIGH +3 +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -7 South Korea Great Britain France Sweden Germany Belgium Spain Australia Canada US Japan Italy Poland Hungary People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 26 70 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 Average guess % Average life expectancy Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014? People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line have, on average, guessed too high while countries below have guessed too low

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 27 Looking across all questions, we have calculated a measure of how accurate the population of each country is. This gives us our “Index of Ignorance”

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 28 Italy US South Korea Poland Hungary France Canada Belgium Australia Great Britain Spain Japan Germany Sweden 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 7th 2nd 10th 6th 11th 8th 14th 1st 13th 4th 3rd 12th 9th 5th INDEX OF IGNORANCE Sweden Germany Japan Spain GB US Poland Hungary Italy South Korea Belgium France Canada Australia (Least accurate at top)

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 29 National PerceptionsPERILS OF PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 30 3 5 7 13 17 59 66 80 16 21 24 24 37 39 49 83 % 15-19 girls that gave birth % Muslim % Unemployed % Immigrants % Over 65 % Christian % Voted Life expectancy PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN The British public are often very wrong about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as unemployment and behaviours like voting. Actual Average guess

IMMIGRATION Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted. © Ipsos MORI People come into the country illegally so 60% aren’t counted I still think the proportion is 49% much higher 46% 33% Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor 21% 11% PERILS OF PERCEPTION 31 4% 3% 1% 19% 39% What I see in my local area What I see when I visit other towns/cities I was just guessing Information seen on TV Information seen in newspapers The experiences of friends and family Other I misunderstood the question Don’t know % who thought immigration is 26% or more According to official statistics the percentage of the British population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher? 41% Base: Asked of all who said 26%+

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 32 CRIME Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain 25% 49% 26% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't Know A quarter of the British public think the murder rate is rising – but half (correctly) say it is falling. More people get this correct in Britain than any other country

© Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 33 • This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014 • Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel. • For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the US. • The research is based on an international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and aged 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500 • Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country • The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 34 © Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION For more information, please contact: Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research Institute bobby.duffy@ipsos.com @BobbyIpsosMORI