Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Summer Review

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Ipsos MORI held a successful Summer Review on 10 July. We were very pleased to have Lord (Gus) O'Donnell GCB, former Secretary of the Cabinet and Head of the Home Civil Service join us. Lord O’Donnell considered how the public sector changed during his time working for three consecutive Prime Ministers, and the challenges that lie ahead. Also joining us was Lin Homer CB, Chief Execcutive, Her Majesty's Revenue & Customs.

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Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Summer Review

  1. 1. Ipsos MORI Summer ReviewFollow the event live on Twitter #ipsosmorilive© Ipsos MORI
  2. 2. Public services: to the future and beyond Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI • 09/05/2012 ben.page@ipsos.com benatipsosmori© Ipsos MORI
  3. 3. A few of the challenges• Debt crisis• Aging population, inflation• Rising expectations• Difficult politics• Massive differences in productivity between public and private sector• Need for “Amazon” paradigm© Ipsos MORI
  4. 4. So far so good© Ipsos MORI
  5. 5. 12%© Ipsos MORI
  6. 6. Only one in three think government will improve publicservicesDo you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state ofBritain’s public services” Dont know 6% Agree Disagree Net = -32Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor© Ipsos MORI
  7. 7. But always pretty negative!Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state ofBritain’s public services” 2010 General Election;% net 2001 General Election (Jun 01) 2005 General Election Brown as PM (Jun 07) Cameron as PM (May 10)agree (May 05) Cameron elected 20 22 (Dec 05) 10 0 -2 0 -10 -10 -13 -20 -18 -30 -32 -34 -28 -29 -40 Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor © Ipsos MORI
  8. 8. Pessimism about NHS and policing increasingThinking about the NHS/quality of education/way your area is policed over the next few years doyou expect it to get much better, get worse, stay the same, get worse or get much worse? % net better 25 15 Education 5 -5 Policing -15 NHS -25 -35Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor© Ipsos MORI
  9. 9. “The economy stupid” – blights everythingWhat do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 70 Economy 60 50 Unemployment 40 30 Race / immigration 20 NHS 10 Crime/ Law & Order 0Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index© Ipsos MORI
  10. 10. Hysteresis© Ipsos MORI
  11. 11. “ A year of youth unemployment reduces earnings 10 years later by about 6% and means that individuals spend an extra month unemployed every year up to their mid-30s. These effects diminish slowly in later adult life but are still ” present well into peoples 40s.. Professor Paul Gregg and Lindsey Macmillan, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16156849© Ipsos MORI
  12. 12. A new world – where we expect our children to have a lowerquality of life than usQ. When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same? % Higher % Lower November 2011 23 42 35 April 2003 43 45 12Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI
  13. 13. Although maybe we shouldn’t underestimate our young people?Q Which one of these sentences do you agree with the most? Not stated Neither of these 3%It doesn’t matter how hard you 9%try, you’ll only be successful in 5%life if you’re from the rightbackground 84% It doesn’t matter what background you’re from, anyone can be a success in life if they try hard enoughBase: 2757 11-16 year olds Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (January – April 2012)© Ipsos MORI
  14. 14. We still don’t agree on what kind of society we want to be© Ipsos MORI
  15. 15. Perceptions of the ideal society are changing – but slowlyPeople have different views about the ideal society. For each of these statements, please tell mewhich one comes closest to your ideal. % A society where individuals 70 are encouraged to look after themselves 60 58 57 51 51 51 50 49 49 49 40 42 43 A society which emphasises 30 the social and collective provision of welfare 20 10 0Base: c. 1,000 British adults – repercentaged to exclude don’t knows Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI
  16. 16. Many think government has done too much, but worryabout the vulnerable is increasingTo what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: % Strongly Agree % Agree % Disagree Strongly DisagreeIn recent years government June ‘12 32 33 15 8and public services havetried to do too much, andpeople should take more May ‘10 31 33 13 7responsibility for their ownlives (Base: 515)I am worried thatgovernment and public June ‘12 30 38 14 5services will do too little tohelp people in the years 19 31 19 8 May ‘10ahead (Base: 490)Base: c500 British adults, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI
  17. 17. “There’s nomoney left”© Ipsos MORI
  18. 18. A country divided over its deficit“There is a real need to cut spending on public services in order to pay off the deficit” 70 58 59 60 Agree 57 56 49 50 48 46 51 43 44 40 44 45 40 43 41 44 37 35 30 Disagree 32 33 20 10 0 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Feb-10 Mar-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 Nov-11 May-11 May-12Base: c. British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor© Ipsos MORI
  19. 19. Five principles from the As the fiscal pressures intensify, itOpen Public Services has also become increasingly evident that we cannot hope toWhite Paper: provide the needed improvements in public services by spending yet1. Choice and control more money on them.2. Decentralisation The case for radical reform has3. Diversity therefore become even stronger4. Fairness over the last six months.5. Accountability Oliver Letwin MP Danny Alexander MP© Ipsos MORI
  20. 20. © Ipsos MORI
  21. 21. More now think Big Society is a good thing for their local areaDo you think the government’s plans for a Big Society are a good thing or a bad thing for yourlocal area? February 2011 June 2012 10% 5% Good thing 41% Wont make a 37% 46% difference 39% Bad thing 9% Dont know 12%Base: 1,016 British adults, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor© Ipsos MORI
  22. 22. The government is verykeen on behaviourchange, using it on organdonation and in lettersfrom HMRC…..© Ipsos MORI
  23. 23. “If a man sees a fly, he aims at it”“Spillagewas downby 80%...”© Ipsos MORI
  24. 24. The challenge for politicians and leaders in public services: be brave and try new things© Ipsos MORI
  25. 25. In conclusion - change is coming• Public accepts need for cuts in spending – to various degrees• Doesn’t appreciate implications• The public hate politicians but like the state when they need it: conservative about changes in delivery• Can we nudge people into being pro-social?• As the state shrinks, what positive catalyst will there be for more involvement in deprived areas?• The crisis gives us the opportunity to have a debate• New technology really does create huge opportunity: digital by default• Requires leadership to overcome “loss aversion”• Good luck! © Ipsos MORI
  26. 26. Thank you© Ipsos MORI This work will be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006 and with the Ipsos MORI Terms and Conditions which can be found here

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