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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: January 2017

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As Theresa May opens up the new year outlining her Government’s stance on the upcoming Brexit negotiations, Ipsos MORI’s first Political Monitor of 2017 shows a nation divided on what those terms should mean.

According to the new poll 44% believe Britain should prioritise having access to the European Single Market while 42% think the priority should be controlling immigration. This is only a marginal change from October when 45% believed Britain should prioritise Single Market access compared with 39% who to prioritise controlling immigration. Groups more likely to have voted remain in the referendum are amongst those who are more likely to favour access to the Single Market over immigration control. Seven in ten (69%) of those aged 18-34 favour access to the single market (22% favour immigration control) compared with 23% of those aged 55+ (61% favour immigration control) while 63% of those with a degree favour single market access (23% favour immigration control) compared with one in five (20%) with no qualifications (65% favour immigration control).

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: January 2017

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORI January 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 43% 31% 6% 4% 11% 5% HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th January 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 843. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE. Voting Intention 42% 33% 6% 5% 10% 4% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +12 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jul03 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Jul16 Jan17 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: June ‘03 – Dec ‘16 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  5. 5. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  6. 6. 6Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 18% 36% 46% Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th January 2017 . Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron were asked on a split sample 565 and 567 British adults 18+ respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 36% 56% 8% 45% 39% 16% 26% 61% 13% -4.5% swing from December 2016 -1.5% swing from December 2016 -0.5% swing from December 2016 -4.5% swing from December 2016 -1.5% swing from December 2016 +6 Net -35 Net -18 Net -10 Net -20 Net SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 18% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 61% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 56% 23% 33% 45%
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Jan 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 MAY CORBYN FARRON NUTTALL 45% 26% 23% 18%
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 17th January 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction) 45% 39% 16% January 2017 August 2016 – January 2017 SATISFIED 45% DISSATISFIED 39% DON’T KNOW 8% Net = +6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 385 Conservative supporters 18+ +, 13th – 17th January 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters 78% 14% 9% January 2017 SATISFIED 78% DISSATISFIED 14% DON’T KNOW 9% Net = +64 August 2016 – January 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 26% 61% 16% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 SATISFIED 26% DISSATISFIED 61% DON’T KNOW 13% Net = -35 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) January 2017 September 2015 – January 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 42% 48% 10% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 48% DON’T KNOW 12% Net = -6 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 280 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 17th January 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) January 2017 September 2015 – January 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 23% 33% 45% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 SATISFIED 23% DISSATISFIED 33% DON’T KNOW 45% Net = -10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 567 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017 Tim Farron (satisfaction) January 2017 September 2015 – January 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 565 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017 Paul Nuttall(satisfaction) December 2016 18% 35% 47% SATISFIED 18% DISSATISFIED 35% DON’T KNOW 47% Net = -17 January 2017 18% 36% 46% SATISFIED 18% DISSATISFIED 36% DON’T KNOW 46% Net = -18
  16. 16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  17. 17. 17Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 27% 21% 47% 4% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 IMPROVE 27% STAY THE SAME 21% GET WORSE 47% DON’T KNOW 4% EOI = -20 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017 Economic Optimism Index January 2017
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 May1997 Sep1997 Jan1998 May1998 Sep1998 Jan1999 May1999 Sep1999 Jan2000 May2000 Sep2000 Jan2001 May2001 Sep2001 Jan2002 May2002 Sep2002 Jan2003 May2003 Sep2003 Jan2004 May2004 Sep2004 Jan2005 May2005 Sep2005 Jan2006 May2006 Sep2006 Jan2007 May2007 Sep2007 Jan2008 May2008 Sep2008 Jan2009 May2009 Sep2009 Jan2010 May2010 Sep2010 Jan2011 May2011 Sep2011 Jan2012 May2012 Sep2012 Jan2013 May2013 Sep2013 Jan2014 May2014 Sep2014 Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 -20
  19. 19. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19 Brexit
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public 45% 44% 39% 42% AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016; 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017 Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of immigration in its future relationship with the EU? BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION Jan 2017 Oct 2016
  21. 21. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 21 Trade unions
  22. 22. 22Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME STATEMENTS RELATING TO TRADE UNIONS. FOR EACH ONE, PLEASE TELL ME, HOW STRONGLY YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH IT Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017 Attitudes to trade unions 44% 18% 12% 24% 33% 18% 13% 24% 7% 26% 27% 17% 5% 19% 29% 13% Trade unions are essential to protect workers' interests Trade unions have too much power in Britain today Most trade unions are controlled by extremists and militants The Labour Party should not be so closely linked to the trade unions STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE
  23. 23. 23Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME STATEMENTS RELATING TO TRADE UNIONS. FOR EACH ONE, PLEASE TELL ME, HOW STRONGLY YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH IT Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Attitudes to trade unions 1975-2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Oct-75 Jul-76 Apr-77 Jan-78 Oct-78 Jul-79 Apr-80 Jan-81 Oct-81 Jul-82 Apr-83 Jan-84 Oct-84 Jul-85 Apr-86 Jan-87 Oct-87 Jul-88 Apr-89 Jan-90 Oct-90 Jul-91 Apr-92 Jan-93 Oct-93 Jul-94 Apr-95 Jan-96 Oct-96 Jul-97 Apr-98 Jan-99 Oct-99 Jul-00 Apr-01 Jan-02 Oct-02 Jul-03 Apr-04 Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 % who Agree TRADE UNIONS ARE ESSENTIAL TO PROTECT WORKERS' INTERESTS TRADE UNIONS HAVE TOO MUCH POWER IN BRITAIN TODAY MOST TRADE UNIONS ARE CONTROLLED BY EXTREMISTS AND MILITANTS THE LABOUR PARTY SHOULD NOT BE SO CLOSELY LINKED TO THE TRADE UNIONS
  24. 24. Political Monitor | January 2017 | FINAL | Public | 24 As you may know, most workers in Britain have a legal right to go on strike, but this does not apply to some jobs such as the Police and the Armed Forces. Some people have called for more action to be done to reduce industrial strikes on essential services such as rail and the NHS. Others say it is important that these workers have the same rights to strike as does any other industry, even if that means sometimes these services are disrupted. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think that people working in this service should have their right to strike limited, or should they be able to strike as any other industry. Right to strike SHOULD HAVE THEIR RIGHT TO STRIKE LIMITED SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRIKE AS ANY OTHER INDUSTRY  Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017 48% 37% 35% 49% 61% 62% NHS medical workers, e.g. doctors and nurses Train drivers School teachers
  25. 25. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 25 January 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

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