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Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final Week

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Ipsos MORI is hosted a 2015 general election briefing in the final week before the polls closed. This session drew together comparisons with Ipsos MORI’s unique dataset of regular polling since the 1970s and results from our latest research. We also covered the issues driving the election, as well as the implications for public services and the political landscape.

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Ipsos MORI General Election Briefing: The Final Week

  1. 1. Ipsos MORI’s General Election Briefing 2015: The Final Week
  2. 2. BEN PAGE, CEO IPSOS MORI (CHAIR) GIDEON SKINNER, HEAD OF POLITICAL RESEARCH AT IPSOS MORI CLAIRE EMES, CHIEF INNOVATION OFFICER, IPSOS MORI PAUL JOHNSON, DIRECTOR AT THE INSTITUTE FOR FISCAL STUDIES PROFESSOR PHILIP COWLEY, CO-EDITOR OF SEX, LIES & THE BALLOT BOX Q&A
  3. 3. Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI @GideonSkinner gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
  4. 4. NO CHANGE, SLOW CHANGE, OR REAL CHANGE?
  5. 5. TOO CLOSE TO CALL
  6. 6. Watch the share, not the lead! In almost 200 polls since the start of the year: • 65% have Cons at 33%+1 (86% at 33%+2) • 72% have Lab at 34%+1 (89% at 34%+2) • 80% have LibDems at 8%+1 (96% at 8%+2) • 70% have Greens at 6%+1 (94% at 6%+2) • 62%% have UKIP at 14%+1 (79% at 14%+2) 7
  7. 7. Watch the share, not the lead! What about the c60 since the start of the campaign? • 68% have Cons at 33%+1 (95% at 33%+2) • 77% have Lab at 34%+1 (92% at 34%+2) • 90% have LibDems at 8%+1 • 90% have Greens at 5%+1 • 63%% have UKIP at 14%+1 (78% at 14%+2) 8
  8. 8. Watch the share, not the lead! What about the 11 different polling series? • 7 out of 11 average Cons at 33% +1 • 9 out of 11 average Labour at 33% +1 • 11 out of 11 average LibDems at 8% +1 • 10 out of 11 average Greens at 6% +1 • 4 out of 11 average UKIP at 14% +1 9
  9. 9. Although signs of some change? Wait and see…. Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -28th April 2015, all certain to vote and registered = 781 10HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor All certain to vote: 74% Conservative lead = +5 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 35% 30% 10% 8% 8% 9%
  10. 10. SLOW CHANGE IN OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH POLITICS
  11. 11. A generational shift in party loyalty… All data points represent > 200 responses 13DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY? Source: British Social Attitudes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Pre war Baby boomers Gen X Gen Y
  12. 12. Fewer voters have decided… Base: 879 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 10-12 April 2015 14 HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR … PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2015 81% 64% 54% 60% 18% 32% 45% 38% April 2010 April 2005 March 1992 Definitely decided May change mind Don’t know
  13. 13. It’s not about Conservative-Labour swing any more Data shows 2010 recalled past vote and current voting intentions of 3,045 British adults aged 18+ interviewed January-March 2015. Current voting intentions are based only on those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, while those who were unable or refused to say how they voted in 2010 are not shown. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  14. 14. And big divisions in attitudes to challenger parties – someone will be disappointed… 17 AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER HUNG PARLIAMENT AFTER THIS ELECTION. THIS MEANS THAT MORE THAN ONE PARTY COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE GOVERNMENT, EITHER BECAUSE THEY JOIN A COALITION OR BECAUSE A MINORITY GOVERNMENT RELIES ON THEIR SUPPORT. THINKING OF PARTIES OTHER THAN THE LABOUR AND THE CONSERVATIVES, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING WOULD YOU LEAST LIKE TO SEE HAVING INFLUENCE OVER THE GOVERNMENT? Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015. 280 Conservative, 296 Labour supporters Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 4% 63% 3% 1% 9% 11% 2% 21% 7% 1% 60% 5% CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS LABOUR SUPPORTERS
  15. 15. The issues distribution is closer to 2005 than 2010 – range of issues important to many 18THE IPSOS MORI/ECONOMIST ISSUES INDEX Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Ipsos MORI Issues Index 44 33 30 29 24 13 12 9 8 8 NHS Education Defence/Foreign affairs/Terrorism Crime/Law and Order Race relations/ Immigration Economy Housing Pensions/social security/benefits Poverty Unemployment 55 29 25 24 24 21 11 11 8 7 Economy Crime/Law and Order NHS Unemployment Race relations/ Immigration Defence/Foreign affairs/Terrorism Inflation/Prices Education/schools Morality/individual behaviour Drug abuse 47 36 36 22 18 15 13 13 12 11 NHS Immigration/ Immigrants Unemployment Education/Schools Economy Low pay/minimum wages/fair pay Defence/Foreign affairs/Terrorism Housing Poverty/inequality Pensions/Social security/Benefits
  16. 16. FIVE CHALLENGES
  17. 17. 1) The ‘biased’ system • In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority of 64 seats • In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats short of a majority • Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of c3.5 to 5.5 percentage points, the Conservatives need a c8.5- to 10 point lead AND • Only two governments since 1900 have increased their vote share after more than two years in office (1951 and 1955) 21
  18. 18. 2) Record levels of macro-optimism – but not felt in people’s pockets Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015 23 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? IN 2015, DO YOU THINK THAT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING WILL RISE, FALL, OR STAY ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL? YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Economic optimism - April 2015 IMPROVE 42% STAY THE SAME 27% GET WORSE 21% DON’T KNOW 11% EOI = +21 RISE 21% STAY THE SAME 61% FALL 17% DON’T KNOW 2% NET = +4 Standard of living over next 12 months – December 2014
  19. 19. 41% 12%7% 1% 22% 9% 8% 3) The rise (if slight fall) of UKIP 24SOURCE OF UKIP’S VOTE Base: 251 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 2010 VOTING BEHAVIOUR CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GREEN UKIP DID NOT VOTE/TOO YOUNG DON’T KNOW
  20. 20. 5) And still much more disliked than Labour Base: 1,025 British adults aged 18+, 8-11 March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF … LEADER AND … PARTY? 25 % dislike the party
  21. 21. Party image as a perceptual map Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12-15 April 2015 Split sample for LibDems (507) and UKIP (493) 29 I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Different to the other parties Divided Extreme Fit to govern Has a good team of leaders Keeps its promises Looks after the interests of people like me Out of date Understands the problems facing Britain Will promise anything to win votes CON LAB LIB DEM UKIP
  22. 22. 36% 23% 6% 3% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan00 Apr00 Jul00 Oct00 Jan01 Apr01 Jul01 Oct01 Jan02 Apr02 Jul02 Oct02 Jan03 Apr03 Jul03 Oct03 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 5) Still behind on public services – notably the NHS 30 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
  23. 23. FOUR CHALLENGES
  24. 24. 1) Incumbency for new governments  Opposition parties rarely elected with an overall majority after single parliament out of office  Only 1895,1924, 1931  In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a narrow poll lead one year out, THE OTHER PARTY WON
  25. 25. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 Dec14 Already seeing a slow change? Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter 36HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 2013 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM 38 34 34 2015 31
  26. 26. 2) Ed trails on leader ratings Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 37HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) Netsatisfaction Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  27. 27. Cameron has owned key ‘PM’ qualities for some time Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12-15 April 2015 Split sample for Nick Clegg (507) and Nigel Farage (493) 38 I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Capable leader Good in a crisis Has a clear vision for Britain Has got a lot of personality Has sound judgement Looks after some sections of society more than others More style than substance Out of touch with ordinary people Understands the problems facing Britain CAMERON MILIBAND FARAGE CLEGG
  28. 28. 23% 41% 4% 3%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan00 Apr00 Jul00 Oct00 Jan01 Apr01 Jul01 Oct01 Jan02 Apr02 Jul02 Oct02 Jan03 Apr03 Jul03 Oct03 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 3) Conservatives’ lead on the “economy stupid”… 40 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON MANAGING THE ECONOMY THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
  29. 29. 4) Scotland! Base: All giving a voting intention = 948; all certain to vote = 785. Data collected among 1,071 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th April 2015 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 54% 20% 17% 6% 1% 3% All giving a voting intention Certain to vote SNP lead +34 SNP lead +34 SNP LABOUR CONSERVATIVE LIB DEM GREEN OTHER 54% 20% 17% 5% 1% 2%
  30. 30. Although the signs were there before indyref…. 46% 43% 40% 42% 39% 34% 32% 29% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2010 2011 LabourshareofVote Date of Election UK GENERAL ELECTION HOLYROOD ELECTION
  31. 31. SNP SCOTTISH LABOUR SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE SCOTTISH LIB DEMS THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 45% THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 14% THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 14% THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY 5% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 17% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 30% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 15% NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY 25% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 35% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 52% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 67% I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM 67% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% Although still time to change – and tactical voting could help Labour Base: 1,071 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd – 27th April 2015. THINKING ABOUT EACH OF THE MAIN PARTIES STANDING AT THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW? Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
  32. 32. 1. KEY THEMES OF THIS ELECTION SET SOME TIME AGO 2. POLARISATION ON ISSUES, LEADER AND PARTY IMAGE MAKE IT HARDER FOR LABOUR OR CONSERVATIVES TO BREAK AWAY 3. VOTE SHARE HAS BARELY CHANGED OVER THE CAMPAIGN 4. BUT WITH ONE WEEK TO GO WILL THAT LAST?
  33. 33. Thank you GIDEON.SKINNER@IPSOS.COM @GIDEONSKINNER
  34. 34. Claire Emes, Chief Innovation Officer, Ipsos MORI claire.emes@ipsos.com @C_emes
  35. 35. TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS.? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/King’s College LondonBase: 1,010 British adults 18+, 8th -10th February 2015 49 Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter… 23% 40% 27% 31% 23% 14% 17% 7% 10% 7% Strongly agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree …are giving a voice to people who would not normally take part in political debate …are making political debate more superficial than it used to be Social Media is increasing access but reducing quality of political debate
  36. 36. Social Media expected to play a part in voters’ decision making – especially the young WHICH OF THESE ITEMS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WILL INFLUENCE YOUR VOTE? Base: 1,142, GB adults 18+, 6th – 16th February 2015 50 40 20 16 13 12 8 4 3 7 30 The TV debates Newspapers Party election broadcasts Something you read on social media Political leaflets Opinion polls Posters Telephone calls from parties Other None of these Second most important among under 35s Source: Ipsos MORI/King’s College London
  37. 37. THE EVOLVED ‘WORM’
  38. 38. 52 The return of the leader debate ‘worm’
  39. 39. Twitter reaction to the ‘mass debate’- the rise of Sturgeon TWITTER ‘WORM’ – REAL TIME ANALYSIS OF REACTION TO FIRST LEADER DEBATE 53 Analysis conducted through the Wisdom of the Crowd project., in partnership with Demos, University of Sussex and CASM LLP and sponsored by Innovate UK
  40. 40. Twittersphere empty chaired Cameron in challenger debate TWITTER ‘WORM’ – REAL TIME ANALYSIS OF REACTION TO SECOND LEADER DEBATE 54 Analysis conducted through the Wisdom of the Crowd project., in partnership with Demos, University of Sussex and CASM LLP and sponsored by Innovate UK
  41. 41. ELECTION UNCUT
  42. 42. Election Uncut… 7426 posts across 239 forum topics LONGITUDINAL ELECTION COMMUNITY 56 c.2000 members from across the UK Over 6500 survey responses to date
  43. 43. DON’T KNOW MAY CHANGE MIND DEFINITELY DECIDED Tracking metrics such as when people make up their minds 58 53 32 43 66 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR YOUR PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut communityBase of British online community members18-75 surveyed online naming a party: Week 1 – 1405, Week 2 – 1172, Week 3 – 1044, Week 4 – 1019, Week 5 – 1077
  44. 44. We also gain detailed qualitative feedback… PLEASE THINK OF THE THREE WORDS OR PHRASES THAT BEST DESCRIBE HOW YOU FEEL ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION CAMPAIGN? 59 768 adults aged 18-75, from BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut Community Interim survey data, launched 27/03/15, based on initial completes up to 12 noon 29/03/15 Removed common English words, otherwise image shows unedited verbatims. Data is qualitative and unweighted.
  45. 45. And can delve into particular issues… Base: 1077 online community members aged 18-75, 24th – 28th April 2015 TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut community 53% 23% 3% 10% 56% 4% AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW 9% 72% 3% I trust politicians to follow through on the promises they have made so far in this campaign if they are in Government after the Election The promises being made by politicians are unrealistic Politicians are explaining their policies clearly enough to allow voters to make up their minds 60
  46. 46. …to unpick the issues beneath the headline stats 5 THINGS WE LEARNT ABOUT TRUST IN POLITICIANS… 61 1 Levels of trust in politicians is generally low. Communication is key to appearing trustworthy… 4 5 …however, members said there is a difference between appearing trustworthy and actually being trustworthy. Past actions are not easily forgotten. Trustworthy politicians make only realistic promises, and stick to them. 2 3
  47. 47. And even generate some ‘deep’ quotes… A trustworthy politician is… …a Loch Ness monster: a few people claim to have seen one, but no one can prove it. ...a dead politician (and some of those may be faking it to claim funeral expenses) COMPLETE THE SENTENCE… 62
  48. 48. Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies paul_j@ifs.org.uk
  49. 49. Professor Philip Cowley, Professor of Parliamentary Government at Nottingham University @philipjcowley
  50. 50. Thank you Q&A

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