Britain 2012 and the implications for government communication

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Ben Marshall and Matthew Taylor presented at the Government Communication Network's free event "Britain 2012: Who Do We Think We Are?" in central London. They used our Britain 2012 research to discuss the range of fit-for-purpose communication and research tools to make sense of, and change, society.

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Britain 2012 and the implications for government communication

  1. 1. @IpsosMORI @BenM_IM @MattTaylor_IM ben.marshall@ipsos.com matthew.taylor@ipsos.com© Ipsos MORI
  2. 2. The mood of the nation: a moment of change? 2© Ipsos MORI
  3. 3. A game changer? 3© Ipsos MORI
  4. 4. The feel-good ‘bounce’ beat expectations 4Q. What effect, if any, do you think the 2012 Olympics will have / has had on…? % very/slightly negative effect % very/slightly positive effect …the mood of 11 25 64 30 Nov-6 Dec 2011 the public 6 8 86 10-13 August 2012 …the way 8 29 63 30 Nov-6 Dec 2011Britain is viewed by the rest of 10-13 August 2012 the world 5 17 78Base: c1,000 online interviews, adults 16-75 in GB, 30 Nov-6 Dec 2011, 10-13 August 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI for British Future© Ipsos MORI
  5. 5. A cultural reference point 5“ We can deliver. We can do big things. The Olympics reminded us how great it feels to be successful… You know, Ive spent three years trying to explain the Big Society...they did it beautifully in just three weeks. “ ” We just think about the Olympics and Paralympic games. It was a triumph for Britain…Mo Farah. A true Brit. And a true hero for our country. We succeeded because of the outstanding volunteers, the Games Makers who are here with us today, all 70,000 Games makers. They put a mirror up to Britain and showed us the best of ourselves..© Ipsos MORI
  6. 6. Our polls: 11 point Labour lead since May… 6Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2010 UK recession Euro veto Local elections General 2010 Q4 Dec 2011 201250 Election40302010 0 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor© Ipsos MORI
  7. 7. Sustained economic pessimism… 7 Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? 40 +28 +23Index (get better minus get worse) 20 0 -9 -20 -40 -46 -48 -56 -60 -64 -80 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-11 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-11 May-97 May-98 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-12 May-11 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor © Ipsos MORI
  8. 8. Unemployment Europe/EU Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 8 Economy Sep 12 Jun 12 Mar 12 Dec 11 Sep 11 Jun 11 Mar 11 Dec 10 Sep 10 Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Jun 10 Mar 10 Dec 09 Sep 09 Jun 09 Mar 09 Dec 08 Sep 08 Jun 08 Mar 08 Dec 07 Sep 07 Jun 07 Mar 07Economic and unemployment worries Dec 06 Sep 06 Jun 06 Mar 06 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month Dec 05 Sep 05 Jun 05 Mar 05 Dec 04 Sep 04 Jun 04 Mar 04 Dec 03 Sep 03 Jun 03 Mar 03 Dec 02 Sep 02 Jun 02 Mar 02 Dec 01 Sep 01 Jun 01 Mar 01 Dec 00 Sep 00 Jun 00 Mar 00 Dec 99 Sep 99 Jun 99 Mar 99 Dec 98 Sep 98 Jun 98 Mar 98 Dec 97 Sep 97 © Ipsos MORI Jun 97 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  9. 9. ‘Priced-out’ yes, but job security key barrier to buying 9Q. Which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? All LA/HA tenants Raise deposit 58% 50% Job security 56% 59% Household finances 31% 39% Availability of mortgages 31% 19% Rising property prices 20% 23% Concerns - interest rate rises 12% 11% Fees and costs of buying a… 12% 13% Falling property prices 10% 6% Level of stamp duty 6% 4% Shortage of the right type of… 5% 4% Shortage of property for sale 5% 6% Dont know 3% 4%Base: 1,960 British adults 16+, 22-28 June 2012 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker© Ipsos MORI
  10. 10. But downbeat: a ‘lost generation’? 10 Q. When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same? % Higher % Lower November 2011 23 42 35 April 2003 43 45 12Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI
  11. 11. Hysteresis 11 A year of youth unemployment reduces “ earnings 10 years later by about 6% and means that individuals spend an extra month unemployed every year up to their mid-30s. These effects diminish slowly in later adult life but are still present well into peoples 40s.. Professor Paul Gregg and Lindsey Macmillan, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16156849© Ipsos MORI
  12. 12. But young believe own hard work will determine destiny 12 Q. Which one of these sentences do you agree with the most? Not stated Neither of these 3%It doesn’t matter how hard you 9%try, you’ll only be successful in 5%life if you’re from the rightbackground 84% It doesn’t matter what background you’re from, anyone can be a success in life if they try hard enoughBase: 2757 11-16 year olds Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (Jan – April 2012)© Ipsos MORI
  13. 13. Moving towards individualism (slowly)? 13 Q. People have different views about the ideal society. For each of these statements, please tell me which one comes closest to your ideal. % A society where individuals 70 are encouraged to look after themselves 60 58 57 51 51 51 50 49 49 49 40 42 43 A society which emphasises 30 the social and collective provision of welfare 20 10 0Base: c. 1,000 British adults – re-percentaged to exclude don’t knows Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI
  14. 14. Against welfare… 14 “The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes” 70% Agree 60% 55% 50% 43% 40% 30% 22% 20% 27% 10% Disagree 0% 1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSA data© Ipsos MORI
  15. 15. Cohort not lifecycle effect… 15 Total % agree government should spend more on welfare 60% 54+ 50% 61+ 40% 33-53 65 + 40-60 44-64 30% 19-32 30-43 20% 25-38 10% 29 and below 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)Base: c.2,000-4,000 GB Adults for each wave of British Social Attitudes Survey Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSA data© Ipsos MORI
  16. 16. Complex Britannia reigns© Ipsos MORI
  17. 17. Britain: progressing but breaking 17 Progressing Breaking Source: Ipsos MORI Britain 2012© Ipsos MORI
  18. 18. Proud but backward-looking 18 “I would like Britain to be the way it used to be” % Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree 15 11 21 20 21 25 31 26 39 40 40 36 31 30 22 7 10 12 13 6 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Real Trends© Ipsos MORI
  19. 19. Looking ahead: pessimism reigns 19 Q. Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? Total 24% 67% Saudi Arabia 57% 54% Argentina 44% 39% % Much stronger / Mexico 39% Somewhat stronger 31% Turkey 25% 25% *Denmark 22% 21% Germany 20% 18% Poland 16% 15% South Korea 15% 14% Spain 14% 12% Sweden 10% 9% Great Britain 9% 8% A Global @dvisor – June 2012 – G@33 The Economic Pulse Hungary 7% c500-,1000 online adults per country 16/18-64 7%© Ipsos MORI
  20. 20. The UK is a good country in which to invest... 20Q. Taking into account all the things which you think are important, how favourable or unfavourable is your overall opinion or impression of the UK – is a good country in which to invest Favourable Unfavourable Hungary 69% 5% South Africa 66% 9% Mexico 63% 4% Indonesia 62% 3% Brazil 59% 9% Poland 59% 6% Turkey 58% 9% S. Arabia 54% 11% Argentina 52% 13% China 51% 10% Russia 51% 9% India 49% 14% Italy 36% 17% Canada 33% 14% South Korea 31% 17% Spain 30% 19% US 30% 13% Australia 24% 24% Great Britain 24% 32% Germany 21% 25% Sweden 21% 22% Belgium 20% 27% France 18% 32% Japan 15% 30%Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 2010© Ipsos MORI
  21. 21. …and makes a positive difference 21Looking ahead 6 months from now,things which the economy in important, how favourable or Q. Taking into account all the do you expect you think are your local area to be much stronger,somewhat stronger,is your overall opinion or impression ofweaker than it is now? unfavourable about the same, somewhat weaker, or much the UK – makes a positive difference in the world Favourable Unfavourable South Africa 63% 7% Indonesia 60% 7% India 59% 9% Brazil 58% 8% Poland 58% 7% Hungary 57% 7% Mexico 54% 7% China 51% 9% Saudi Arabia 49% 20% US 45% 7% Argentina 45% 18% Canada 44% 8% South Korea 43% 8% Australia 42% 12% Russia 41% 9% Turkey 40% 17% Italy 38% 14% Great Britain 36% 22% Spain 32% 17% Sweden 28% 21% France 26% 20% Germany 22% 22% Belgium 21% 23% Japan 15% 22%Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country; July 2010© Ipsos MORI
  22. 22. We are (rightly) self-aware of some characteristics 22© Ipsos MORI
  23. 23. But what of achievement? 23Q. Which 2 or 3 would you pick out as areas where Britain is strongest/ weakest compared with other countries? Inputs New inventions/ Primary University Cultural Entrep’ship & secondary Language innovation Manufacturing Education diversity Design leadership educ’ skills New Engineering technology system Transport 35 Management network 22 7 6 5 3 11 11 0 -19 -19 -45 Outputs Television Tourists Fashion Architecture Banking/ Sport PharmA Retail Luxury Film Construction Motor attraction finance goods industry 25 23 9 8 8 7 3 12 -4 -5 -22 -8 Base: 1,003 British adults, 25-31 May 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI / Design Council© Ipsos MORI
  24. 24. We’re also not sure what want from Government 24Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:Many think government has done too much, but worry about the vulnerable is increasing % Strongly Agree % Agree % Disagree Strongly Disagree In recent years government June ‘12and public services have tried 32 33 15 8 to do too much, and people should take more responsibility for their own May ‘10 31 33 13 7 lives (Base: 515) I am worried that government and public services will do too June ‘12 30 38 14 5little to help people in the years ahead (Base: 490) May ‘10 19 31 19 8Base: c500 British adults, 9 – 11 June 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORI
  25. 25. Cognitive polyphasia: government intervention 25Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes closest to your own opinion Agree much Agree much NA more with A more with B 1 2 3 4 5 A: It is the B: The governments government responsibility to should not get influence 20 19 28 12 17 involved with peoples interfering in behaviour to peoples encourage lifestyles healthy lifestyles2012: approx. 2000 2012: Ipsos MORI Omnibus September© Ipsos MORI
  26. 26. Cognitive polyphasia: localism 26 On the one hand, the public support quite radical On the other, they want approaches to greater local fairness, despise the control postcode lottery and want uniformity of standards© Ipsos MORI
  27. 27. Monarchy or republic? 27Q. Would you favour Britain becoming a Republic or remaining a Monarchy? 80 77% 70 Monarchy 60 50 Death of Princess Diana 40 30 18% in 1969 (Gallup) Republic 20 15% 10 8% 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Base: c. 500-1,000 GB 18+ except four polls (Dec 01, Feb 02, May 02 and Apr 04) all c. 1,000 GB 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor© Ipsos MORI
  28. 28. Trust in politics is falling 28 Q. How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this country above the interests of their own political party? 40 % “almost never” 30% 20 10 0 Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009 © Ipsos MORI
  29. 29. Some remarkable changes; but new challenges to come 29© Ipsos MORI
  30. 30. Communication & BehaviourChange in Britain 2012Matthew Taylor© Ipsos MORI
  31. 31. Title 31© Ipsos MORI
  32. 32. 32© Ipsos MORI
  33. 33. Communications & Behaviour Change 33© Ipsos MORI
  34. 34. What I’m going to cover 34 1 Why understanding society is important Government communication priorities & 2 lessons learned 3 Looking to the future© Ipsos MORI
  35. 35. Factors affecting attitudes & behaviours 35 Contextual Social Personal ‘System 1’ ‘System 2’ Unconscious, Rational, Instinctive Logical© Ipsos MORI
  36. 36. Choices affected by others 36 Behavioural economics and qualitative research - a marriage made in heaven? Wendy Gordon, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 53, No. 2, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  37. 37. The power of context 37 Contextual Social Personal ‘System 1’ ‘System 2’ Unconscious, Rational, Instinctive Logical© Ipsos MORI
  38. 38. Information overload 38 1986 2007© Ipsos MORI
  39. 39. Multi-screen lives 39 Source: Ipsos Tech Tracker Q3 2012© Ipsos MORI
  40. 40. What I’m going to cover 40 1 Why understanding society is important Government communication priorities & 2 lessons learned 3 Looking to the future© Ipsos MORI
  41. 41. Young People & Volunteering 41© Ipsos MORI
  42. 42. Young People & Relationships 42© Ipsos MORI
  43. 43. The Right to Buy 43© Ipsos MORI
  44. 44. Armed Forces Recruitment 44© Ipsos MORI
  45. 45. GREAT Britain 45© Ipsos MORI
  46. 46. Older People 46© Ipsos MORI
  47. 47. Communication Lessons Learned 47 Reach + Response = Success© Ipsos MORI
  48. 48. Campaigns 48 A good story, well told Creative is King http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/publications/1356/Top-10-Advertising-Lessons-Learned.aspx© Ipsos MORI
  49. 49. Simplicity (and social proof) 49 Source: Cabinet Office Behavioural Insights Team© Ipsos MORI
  50. 50. Social media 50© Ipsos MORI
  51. 51. What I’m going to cover 51 1 Why understanding society is important 2 Government communication priorities & lessons learned 3 Looking to the future© Ipsos MORI
  52. 52. Insight for communication 52 Ethnography Peer Research Social Listening Social Spaces Eye Tracking Biometrics© Ipsos MORI
  53. 53. Campaign Evaluation – more of the same? 53 Recognisers Non Recognisers© Ipsos MORI
  54. 54. Campaign evaluation in future 54 Web Analytics Mobile Research Geolocation© Ipsos MORI
  55. 55. Mobile & Geolocation 55 Phone use Location data 15 million customers Mobile Surveys© Ipsos MORI
  56. 56. Summary 561. Britain in 2012 is a complex, multi-faceted society in which resilience, tolerance and good humour can sit alongside pessimism and individualism.2. In a distracted but connected world these aspects of society may increasingly influence the attitudes and behaviours of individuals3. This presents some challenges for government communication, but it also creates opportunities4. Some well-known lessons in good communication still hold true, but some new ones need to be learned5. In the future, communication research will have to change to understand all of this; adapting old techniques and adopting new methods and technologies.© Ipsos MORI
  57. 57. Any Questions? ben.marshall@ipsos.com matthew.taylor@ipsos.com© Ipsos MORI

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