Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Labour Party Conference 2013

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Ipsos MORI held a fringe event at the Labour Party conference, which aimed to move beyond the Westminster village to consider how the average person sees the political parties and the state of Britain today. The fringe event focused on the Labour Party and Ed Miliband's standing in the public mind and whether the party can increase its share of the vote at the next election beyond its 2010 result of 29%. Panellists: Michael Dugher MP, Andrew Harrop (Fabian Society), Sophy Ridge (Sky News), Gideon Skinner (Ipsos MORI), Bobby Duffy (chair, Ipsos MORI)

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Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Labour Party Conference 2013

  1. 1. Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORIGideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI
  2. 2. Is the Labour lead soft?
  3. 3. 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 37% 10% 34% Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Since 2010 Labour has consistently led in the polls How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 11% June-Dec 2010: Avg. -1.5pt Lab lead Jan ’11-Mar ‘12: Avg. 4pt Lab lead April ’12-April’13: Avg. 10pt Lab lead May – Sept ‘13: 6 pt Lab lead
  4. 4. 4September’s poll showed a curbing of enthusiasm Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative lead = -10 All giving a voting intention: How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 30% 40% 10% 10% 10% Base 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th -9h September 2013, all certain to vote = 545 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other All certain to vote: Conservative lead = -3 34% 37% 10% 11% 8%
  5. 5. 5 Labour are holding on to most of 2010 voters Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013 Voted Labour in 2010 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more 59%23% 18%
  6. 6. 6 But not winning over many Tories… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Still Con, not certain to vote Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013 Voted Tory in 2010 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Still Con and certain to vote Not Con any more 49% 20% 13% 5% 2% 11% Other Lib Dems UKIP Labour
  7. 7. 7 Relying heavily on Lib Dem switchers Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Still LD, not certain to vote Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013 Voted LD in 2010 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Still LD and certain to vote Not LD any more 26% 13% 29% 7% 5% 20% Other UKIP Conservatives Labour
  8. 8. So, a consistent lead, but should you be worried?
  9. 9. What are the foundations of Labour’s lead?
  10. 10. 10 What makes people vote the way they do? Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 I think their leader would make the best Prime Minister I agree with their policies I believe in what the party stands for
  11. 11. 11 What makes people vote the way they do? Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 79% 88% 83% 67% I think their leader would make the best Prime Minister I agree with their policies I believe in what the party stands for
  12. 12. 12 The good image… I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 And the less good image 14% 21% 17% 27% 38% 27% 47% 39% Fit to govern Has a good team of leaders 41% 27% 44% 29% 55% 43% 44% 30% Understands the problems facing Britain Looks after the interest of people like me Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrats UKIP
  13. 13. 13 But no-one really comes out particularly well I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 73% 41% 24% 28% 46% 46% 15% 62% 50% 50% 25% 62% 52% 50% 26% 67% Different to other parties Out of date Keeps its promises Divided Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
  14. 14. So, what about your policies?
  15. 15. 15 So, what about policies? Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 80% 79% 87% 88% 75% 83% 77% 67% I think their leader would make the best Prime Minister I agree with their policies I believe in what the party stands for
  16. 16. 16 1% 2% 1% 1% 6% 5% 6% 8% 32% 30% 36% 31% 18% 26% 21% 25% Housing Unemployment Healthcare Education Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP Labour lead in traditional areas Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
  17. 17. 17 18% 3% 11% 9% 6% 6% 21% 19% 19% 22% 31% 22% Europe Crime & anti-social behaviour Asylum/ immigration Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP And the Conservatives lead where you would expect them to Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
  18. 18. 18 Base: 970 British adults 18+, 30th August – 8th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index But on the most important issue… What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 45 33 32 23 21 16 13 13 11 10 Top mentions % Economy Race relations/Immigration Inflation/Prices NHS Unemployment Crime/Law and order Defence/foreign affairs Education/schools Poverty/Inequality Housing
  19. 19. 19 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar-90 Sep-90 Mar-91 Sep-91 Mar-92 Sep-92 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Labour have yet to regain economic credibility… Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  20. 20. 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar-90 Sep-90 Mar-91 Sep-91 Mar-92 Sep-92 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Labour have yet to regain economic credibility… Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 38% 20% 5%
  21. 21. 21 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Perhaps not surprising given summer of rising economic optimism… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index = % improve minus % get worse Still get blamed for economy and cuts Balls doing no better than Osborne
  22. 22. 22 Although closer on the living standards debate Do you think you and you family would be better off under a Conservative government or a Labour government, or do you think it would make no difference? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 Conservative lead = -1 22% 52% 23% Conservative government Labour government Make no difference
  23. 23. How do voters choose their party?
  24. 24. 24 The leader is a particular draw for the Conservatives Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 53% 80% 79% 36% 87% 88% 37% 75% 83% 64% 77% 67% I think their leader would make the best Prime Minister I agree with their policies I believe in what the party stands for
  25. 25. 25 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Ed Miliband’s approval ratings are concerning How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  26. 26. 26 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader How does Ed match up to his predecessors? How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  27. 27. 27 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader How does Ed match up to his predecessors? How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  28. 28. 28 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) How does Ed match up to his predecessors? How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  29. 29. 29 Cameron and Farage do better among their own Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron/Nick Clegg/Ed Miliband/Nigel Farage is doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? 40% 52% 8% SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied 48% 44% 7% 79% 10% 11% 71% 23% 8%
  30. 30. 30 24 26 28 15 13 24 23 18 6 8 8 8 20 21 20 26 30 16 17 30 7 4 4 3 I don't know what Nigel Farage stands for I don't know what Nick Clegg stands for I don't know what Ed Miliband stands for I don't know what David Cameron stands for Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know Half don’t know what he stands for Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013 33% 56% 51% 37% 50% 37% 37% 50%
  31. 31. 31 And Cameron leads on more Prime Ministerial qualities I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… 79% 50% 70% 52% 40% 53% 47% 40% 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% MilibandCameron Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
  32. 32. How do voters choose their party?
  33. 33. 33 Can’t ignore the other parties…. Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 53% 80% 79% 36% 87% 88% 37% 75% 83% 64% 77% 67% I don't like any of the other parties I think their leader would make the best Prime Minister I agree with their policies I believe in what the party stands for
  34. 34. 34 Can’t ignore the other parties…. Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 56% 53% 80% 79% 48% 36% 87% 88% 41% 37% 75% 83% 43% 64% 77% 67% I don't like any of the other parties I think their leader would make the best Prime Minister I agree with their policies I believe in what the party stands for
  35. 35. 35 Netsatisfaction LABOUR: 1997 - 2010 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from new government taking power Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone 2001 GE 1987 GE JOHN MAJOR BECOMES PM CONSERVATIVES: 1979-1997 COALITION: 2010-2012 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country? Most governments suffer from diminishing returns…. 2005 GE GORDON BROWN BECOMES PM 1983 GE 1992 GE
  36. 36. 36 The Conservatives are still the most disliked party Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United Kingdom Independence party? % dislike party
  37. 37. 37 People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britain’s economic difficulties. Which of the following do you most agree with? And they have their issues too…. Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 52 6 41 Britain has a debt problem, built up over many years, and we have got to deal with it. If we don’t, interest rates will soar. That’s why tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates low should be our top priority. Without growth in our economy, we are not getting the deficit down and are borrowing more. We need more government spending on investment to kick-start our economy and a temporary cut in taxes to support growth 37 10 53 George Osborne argues… Ed Balls argues… Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013
  38. 38. 38 Tactical voting isn’t dead….. You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it be? Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Lab supporters Lib Dem supporters Conservatives 14 30 Labour - 31 Liberal Democrats 30 - UKIP 9 7 Other 16 20 Would not vote for another party/none 22 5 Don’t know 8 7
  39. 39. 39 Tactical voting isn’t dead….. You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it be? Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Lab supporters Lib Dem supporters Con supporters UKIP supporters Conservatives 14 30 - 37 Labour - 31 13 17 Liberal Democrats 30 - 33 9 UKIP 9 7 23 - Other 16 20 6 17 Would not vote for another party/none 22 5 17 16 Don’t know 8 7 9 4
  40. 40. Is the Labour lead soft?
  41. 41. Is the Labour lead soft fragile?
  42. 42. 42 Is the Labour lead fragile?  Labour have held a consistent lead, and some conditions in your favour  But: – losing ground on the number 1 issue, the economy – Ed Miliband still not convincing the public – Risky to just rely on switching Libdems?
  43. 43. Thank you Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
  44. 44. Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORIQuestions and Discussion

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