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Forex Response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Is it time to consider the Forex response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine? The Russian Federation supported rebellion in eastern Ukraine is coming to a head. Ukrainian forces are encircling the last cities held by Russian separatist forces. In response Russia is adding to its troops stationed within 30 kilometers of its border with Ukraine. As Russian troops build up on Ukraine border there is the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine according to Financial Times Europe.
Russia has sharply increased the number of troops and vehicles positioned on the eastern border of Ukraine in the past few days, raising fears of an invasion to stop the Ukrainian army’s recent advances against pro-Russian separatists. Moscow has around 20,000 troops deployed in battle-ready formations on the border, according to senior Nato military officers – significantly more than the 15,000 US officials said were deployed there last week.
Russian Economic Meltdown
The isolation that Russia has visited on itself with the annexation of Crimea and overt support of separatist forces in Ukraine is worsening. Proof of this is seen in tourist destinations around the world where there are Russian tourists stranded as travel agencies back home go bankrupt and have no sources of credit. According to the Wall Street Journal
Tens of thousands of Russian tourists have found themselves stranded in foreign vacation spots amid a wave of bankruptcies among Russian travel agencies, which are struggling with a weak economy and fears of international isolation because of the Ukraine crisis. The situation is the worst in years in a sector that has long been plagued by insolvencies and poor service, drawing the attention this week of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. He called for regular checks of travel companies and told government officials to find ways to help the “huge number” of people stuck in “a pretty complicated situation.”
The Lonely Ruble
The ultimate Forex response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a plummeting Ruble. And sanctions on Russia by the west would likely lead to a recession in Russia and cause economic damage to Europe, its biggest trading partner. According to a report in online ABC News Ukraine looms like a dark specter over the otherwise advancing Euro zone recovery.