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Do Your Canadian Investments Depend on NAFTA?
Trump decided to renegotiate the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement. This agreement created a free trade zone including Canada, the USA, and Mexico. NAFTA re-negotiations between Canada and the USA have stalled. Pundits see an “investment hesitancy” as investors wait to see how things will work out and what a new deal will look like. The question for those with investments north of border is, do your Canadian investments depend on NAFTA?
Is There a Problem with NAFTA and, If So, Whose Problem Is It?
Economic analysis indicates that the net result of NAFTA has been to improve the economies of the three nations involved. However, during the quarter of a century that the trade deal has been in effect, many workers have been displaced while others have gained new jobs. A large part of Trump’s appeal to his supporters is that he sees NAFTA as having been a big mistake for the USA and having hurt US workers.
Since the start of NAFTA, trade between the USA and Canada increased from $199 Billion USD a year to $518 USD a year. According to Investopedia in their article on the economics of NAFTA, the US per-capita GDP went up 39% while that of Canada went up 40%.
It would seem that the net result was about equal for the two nations. Nevertheless, negotiations are going forward albeit slowly. If negotiators cannot come to an agreement, or if they come to an agreement that hurts Canada, which investments will get hurt and which investments will see no adverse effect?