Where will CSP plants be built? Incentives, RPS requirements, and Project Economics

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- American Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009: now that the ARRA has expired, what will be the next big driver for the CSP sector?
- Insights into future initiatives that will help stimulate new projects
- Overview and outlook of federal and state tax incentives
Brett Prior, Senior Analyst, GREENTECH MEDIA

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Where will CSP plants be built? Incentives, RPS requirements, and Project Economics

  1. 1. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share CSP Market Outlook: Pipeline and Project Economics IntertechPira CST Power February 24, 2011 Brett Prior, CFA Senior Analyst Greentech Media / GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 1
  2. 2. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share CSP PV Trough CLFR Flat plate Tower Dish CPVCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
  3. 3. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Solar represents about 0.3% of global capacity Global Electricity Generation by Type (GW), 2008 Total: 4,521 GW Nuclear 378 GW 8.4% Hydroelectric 857 GW 19.0% Biomass Wind 56 GW 121 GW 1.2% 2.7% Other 143 GW 3.2% Coal, Natural Gas, &  Oil 3,086 GW Geothermal, 09 GW, 0.2% 68.3% Solar, 13 GW, 0.3% Source: GTM Research, EIACOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
  4. 4. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Long term outlook for solar: very bullishCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
  5. 5. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share So far, PV has dominated in sub‐20 MW installations Technology Mix for By Installation Size  Cumulative Installed Capacity 22,000 MW (as of year end 2009) 18,000 Cumulative Installed  Capacity  (MW) 16,000 CSP, 0 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 PV 15,372 6,000 4,000 CSP, 51 PV 2,000 4,282 CSP, 1,041 PV 0 1,346 Small (under 0.2 MW) Medium (0.2 MW ‐ 20 MW) Large (over 20 MW) Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
  6. 6. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Future looks bright for CSP Global CSP Projects by Technology  19,221 MW Total Each symbol = 1,000 MW 10,000  9,020 9,000  TBA 8,000  MicroCSP 7,674 7,000  CLFR Capacity (MW) Dish‐Engine 6,000  Power Tower 5,000  Parabolic Trough 4,000  3,000  2,000  1,359 1,167 1,000  ‐ In Operation Construction with PPA/FIT Development with PPA/FITDevelopment, no PPA/FIT Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
  7. 7. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Near term pipeline mostly trough, with tower in 2015+ Global CSP Project Pipeline by Expected Online Date  19,221 MW Total 8,472 8,000  Each Symbol = 1,000 MW 7,000  Annual New Capacity Installed (MW) TBA 6,000  MicroCSP 5,000  CLFR 4,141 4,000  Dish‐Engine Power Tower 3,280 3,000  Parabolic Trough 2,000  1,282 838 1,000  555 340 188 60 ‐ 1985 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015+ Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
  8. 8. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share CSP Plants In Operation (1,167 MW Total) Spain: 582 MW France: 1 MW <1% 5% Germany: 2 MW U.S.: 507 MW 1% 1% <1% <1% 95% Iran: 62 MW 100% 97% Australia: 3 MW Parabolic Trough Power Tower CLFR Dish Engine MicroCSPCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8
  9. 9. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share CSP Plants Under Construction/Development (18,054 MW Total) Israel: 250 MW Jordan: 100 MW Spain: 4,456 MW France: 21 MW 100% 100% <1% 100% 1% 1% Italy: 28 MW U.S.: 9,222 MW 100% 25% 2% 70% 9% China: 2,500 MW 12% 2% 37% Greece: 50 MW Egypt: 20 MW 55% 2% 100% 100% Morocco: 520 MW 96% 86% 100% Algeria: 20 MW 14% 100% India: 70 MW Sudan: 250 MW 76% UAE: 100 MW 100% Australia: 520 MW 3% 11% 72% 14% South Africa: 100 MW 100% Parabolic Trough Power Tower Dish Engine CLFR MicroCSP TBACOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
  10. 10. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share US CSP MarketCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10
  11. 11. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Robust pipeline with trough & tower US CSP Projects by Technology  9,729 MW Total Each symbol = 1,000 MW 7,000  6,416 TBA 6,000  MicroCSP 5,000  CLFR Capacity (MW) Dish‐Engine 4,000  Power Tower 3,000  Parabolic Trough 2,414 2,000  1,000  507 392 ‐ In Operation Construction with PPA/FIT Development with  Development, no PPA/FIT PPA/FITCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11
  12. 12. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Robust pipeline with trough & tower US CSP Project Pipeline by Expected Online Date  9,729 MW Total 3,500  Each Symbol = 1,000 MW Annual New Capacity Installed (MW) 3,081 3,000  2,871 2,494 2,500  Dish‐Engine 2,000  Power Tower 1,500  1,000  Parabolic Trough 771 500  ‐ 1985 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015+ TBA ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ MicroCSP ‐ ‐ 1  ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ CLFR ‐ 5  ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Dish‐Engine ‐ ‐ ‐ 2  ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 155  Power Tower ‐ ‐ 5  ‐ ‐ 231  1,716  350  1,390  Parabolic Trough 340  ‐ ‐ 76  5  540  1,365  2,521  949  Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12
  13. 13. Crescent Dunes US CSP Project Tracker NEVADA UTAH CALIFORNIA Amargosa Farm Road Beacon Solar Coyote Springs (I & II) Fort Irwin Gaskell (I & II) BrightSource-Ivanpah eSolar (I & II) Kingman Project (I & II) AMS Palmdale Harper Lake Parabolic Trough Mojave Solar Hualapai Valley Solar Project Victorville Genesis (I & II) Rice Solar Power Tower ARIZONA Palen Quartzsite Solar Imperial Valley II Solana Dish-Engine Blythe (I & II) PPA Signed No PPA Signed Sonoran Solar Imperial Valley I Mt. Signal Solar UA Tech Park Size Represents Project Capacity in MW SolarCAT Pilot Last update 2/14/11 5 MW 100 MW 250 MW 500 MW >1,000 MWCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13 Created by Brett Prior (prior@gtmresearch.com)
  14. 14. US CSP Projects: Milestone Tracker Projects in yellow have PPAs & all required permits PPA Land State Energy Commission DOE Approved by PUC PPA Period (yrs) Fast-tracked Expected Capacity, Final EC Electricity Break Online Gross Record of AFC Proposed EC Final 1705 Loan Developer Project Name Purchaser State Technology ground Date (MW) Draft EIS Final EIS Decision Filed Decision Decision Guarantee Projects under Construction 1 BrightSource Ivanpah PG&E 1 PG&E CA Tower Oct-10 2012 126 25 Y Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional 2 BrightSource Ivanpah PG&E 2 PG&E CA Tower Oct-10 2013 133 25 Y Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional 3 BrightSource Ivanpah SCE SCE CA Tower Oct-10 2013 133 20 Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional TOTAL 392 Projects under Development with PPAs 1 Abengoa Solar Abengoa Mojave Solar (AMS) project PG&E CA Trough Dec-10 2013 250 25 ------------------Private------------------ 8/10/09 8/6/10 9/8/10 2 Abengoa Solar Solana Generating Station APS AZ Trough Dec-10 2012 280 30 Y ------------------Private------------------ 12/5/08 Closed 3 Acciona Fort Irwin US CA Trough 2014 500 ? 4 Bell Independent UA Tech Park Thermal Storage Tucson AZ Trough 2011 5 20 ------------------Private------------------ 5 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 5 PG&E CA Tower 2016 200 25 Y 6 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 6 PG&E CA Tower 2016 200 25 Y 7 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 7 PG&E CA Tower 2017 200 25 Y 8 BrightSource Brightsource SCE (Solar Partners XVI- SCE CA Tower 2013 1,200 20 9 BrightSource Coyote Springs 1 (PG&E 3) PG&E NV Tower 2014 200 25 Y ------------------Private------------------ 10 BrightSource Coyote Springs 2 (PG&E 4) PG&E NV Tower 2015 200 25 Y ------------------Private------------------ 11 Inland Energy Inc. Palmdale Hybrid Gas-Solar plant Yes CA Trough 2013 50 ? 8/4/08 12 Inland Energy Inc. Victorville 2 Hybrid Power Project Yes CA Trough 50 ? 2/28/07 5/30/08 7/16/08 13 MMR Power Solutions Mt. Signal Solar SDG&E CA Trough 49 20 Y 14 NextEra Energy Beacon Solar Energy Project Yes CA Trough Dec-10 2012 250 ? ------------------Private------------------ 3/14/08 7/20/10 8/25/10 15 NextEra Energy Genesis Solar Energy Project-1 PG&E CA Trough Dec-10 2013 125 25 Y Y 4/19/10 8/30/10 11/4/10 8/31/09 8/19/10 9/29/10 16 NextEra Energy Genesis Solar Energy Project-2 PG&E CA Trough 2014 125 25 Y 4/19/10 8/30/10 11/4/10 8/31/09 8/19/10 9/29/10 17 NRG Energy Gaskell Sun Tower (Phase I) SCE CA Tower 2012 105 20 Y ------------------Private------------------ 18 NRG Energy Gaskell Sun Tower (Phase II) SCE CA Tower 140 20 Y ------------------Private------------------ 19 Siemens Energy (Solel) Mojave Solar Park PG&E CA Trough 2014 553 25 Y 20 SolarReserve Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project NV Energy NV Tower Jun-11 2013 100 25 Y Y 9/3/10 11/26/10 12/20/10 7/20/09 Part II 21 SolarReserve Rice Solar Energy (RSEP) PG&E CA Tower 3Q 2011 2013 150 25 Y ------------------Private------------------ 10/21/09 11/12/10 12/16/10 Part II 22 Solar Millennium LLC/Chevron Blythe (Phase I) SCE CA Trough Dec-10 2013 500 20 Y Y 4/6/10 8/20/10 10/25/10 8/24/09 8/11/10 9/15/10 23 Solar Millennium LLC/Chevron Blythe (Phase II) SCE CA Trough 2014 500 20 Y 4/6/10 8/20/10 10/25/10 8/24/09 8/11/10 9/15/10 24 Solar Millennium LLC Palen Solar Power Project SCE CA Trough Aug-11 2014 484 20 Y 4/7/10 8/24/09 TOTAL with PPAs 6,416 Projects under Development without PPAs 25 Albiasa Solar Kingman Project (Phase I) APS? AZ Trough 3Q2011 2013 100 ------------------Private------------------ 26 Albiasa Solar Kingman Project (Phase II) AZ Trough 100 ------------------Private------------------ 27 Southwest Solar SolarCAT Pilot Plant AZ Dish 10 ------------------Private------------------ 28 Harper Lake LLC Harper Lake Solar Plant CA Trough 250 29 Mohave Sun Power Hualapai Valley Solar Project AZ Trough 2011 2013 340 30 NextEra Energy Sonoran Solar Energy Project (fka AZ Trough 2011 2014 375 Y 4/9/10 31 NRG Energy eSolar 1 CA Tower 84 32 NRG Energy eSolar 2 CA Tower 66 33 Pacific Light & Power Westside Solar Project Kauai Island HI Trough 2011 2011 10 ------------------Private------------------ 34 SolarReserve Crossroads APS/SRP AZ Tower 2012 2014 150 ------------------Private------------------ 2/7/11 35 SolarReserve Quartzsite Solar Energy Project AZ Tower 100 36 SolarReserve Saguache Solar CO Tower 200 ------------------Private------------------ 37 Solar Millennium LLC Amargosa Farm Road NV Trough Nov-11 2014 484 Y 3/19/10 10/15/10 11/15/10 38 Tessera Solar San Luis Valley CO Dish 145 ------------------Private------------------ TOTAL without PPAs 2,414 TOTAL 9,222 Cancelled Projects 1 Tessera Solar Buckeye Landfill Project AZ Dish Sep-11 2012 240 --------Private (City-Owned)--------- 2 Tessera Solar Western Ranch TX Dish 2011 2013 27 ------------------Private------------------ 3 Tessera Solar Calico Solar Project I (formerly Solar SCE CA Dish Dec-10 2011 275 20 Y Y 3/30/10 8/6/10 10/20/10 12/2/08 9/25/10 10/28/10 4 Tessera Solar Calico Solar Project II (formerly Solar SCE CA Dish 2014 575 ? Y Y 3/30/10 8/6/10 10/20/10 12/2/08 9/25/10 10/28/10 5 Tessera Solar Imperial Valley Solar Project I (formerly SDG&E CA Dish Dec-10 2011 300 20 Y Y 2/22/10 7/28/10 10/5/10 6/30/08 8/26/10 9/29/10 6 Tessera Solar Imperial Valley Solar Project II (formerly CA Dish Aug-12 2014 409 Y 2/22/10 7/28/10 10/5/10 6/30/08 8/26/10 9/29/10 7 Solar Millennium LLC Ridgecrest Solar Power Project SCE CA Trough Nov-11 2014 242 20 Y 4/7/10 9/12/09 List compiled and maintained by Brett Prior (prior@gtmresearch.com). Updated 2/16/2011COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14
  15. 15. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) AnalysisCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15
  16. 16. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Solar land usage varies by nearly 4x Land Area Needed per MW by Technology (acres/MW) 14.0  12.6  12.0  10.4  10.0  9.4  9.6  9.0  8.6  8.0  8.0  7.6  Acres/MW 7.0  7.2  6.1  6.0  5.5  4.0  3.3  2.0  ‐ Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16
  17. 17. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Water availability can be a constraint for CSP plants  Water Required per MW (Gallons/Yr) 3,000,000  2,600,000  2,500,000  Water Required per MW (Gallons/Yr) 2,000,000  1,500,000  1,000,000  500,000  200,000  83,000  14,000  ‐ Dish‐Engine Power Tower (dry) Parabolic Trough (dry) Parabolic Trough (wet) Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 17
  18. 18. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Cost per watt is a key input for LCOE Capital Cost ($/W‐ac) by Solar Technology $25.00  No Storage With Storage Sopogy Holaniku $21.29 Torresol $20.00  Gemasolar $17.97 Stirling Maricopa $15.65 $15.00  AREVA Kimberlina Solucia Torresol $9.29 Lebrija Valle 1 $10.00  $8.72 $8.52 Upington $5.48 $7.50 $7.00 $6.20 SolarReserve Sopogy $5.00  STA model plant $5.09 model plant $4.68 Amargosa $3.76 $3.86 $3.63 $3.62 BrightSource $3.50 AREVA Stirling Ivanpah Siemens MSP Model plant Model Plant $‐ PV: CdTe PV: Multi PV: Mono CLFR Dish‐Engine Parabolic Trough  Power Tower  Parabolic Trough  MicroCSP Power Tower  (no storage) (no storage) (with storage) (with storage) Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 18
  19. 19. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Since 2007, LCOE flat over time ‐ but lower at scale LCOE for CSP Projects by Expected Online Date Holaniku $0.50  Maricopa 1 MW 50 MW 250 MW Bubble size scaled to plant size (in MW) $0.40  Kimberlina LCOE ($/kWh) $0.30  Gemasolar Blythe I EL REBOSO II  Helios II Borges Extresol‐1 Fort Irwin Puerto Errado 2 Martin Kogan Creek Whyalla Enerstar $0.20  PS10 Cameo Olivenza 1 Badajoz 2 ASTE‐1 B Solacor 2 Solaben 6 Palen Nevada Solar One Andasol‐1 Ciudad Real Helioenergy 2 EL REBOSO III  Amargosa UA Tech Park Solana Ivanpah PG&E 2 Lebrija  1 $0.10  Cloncurry Beacon Kingman I Siemens Mojave $0.00  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Expected Online Date Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 19
  20. 20. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share LCOE varies widely by solar technology LCOE by Technology in 2010 ($/kWh) MicroCSP (wet, no storage) $0.192 Parabolic Trough (dry, no storage) $0.155 Parabolic Trough (dry, storage) $0.154 PV: Multi, fixed $0.147 Power Tower (dry, no storage) $0.146 Parabolic Trough (wet, storage) $0.145 Parabolic Trough (wet, no storage) $0.142 PV: Mono, 1‐axis $0.140 CLFR (dry, no storage) $0.137 PV: CdTe, fixed $0.137 CLFR (wet, no storage) $0.125 High CPV (lens) $0.123 Dish‐Engine (dry, no storage) $0.116 Power Tower (dry, storage) $0.116 Wind $0.074 Gas CC $0.062 $0.000 $0.050 $0.100 $0.150 $0.200 $0.250 LCOE ($/kWh) Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 20
  21. 21. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Our forecast for LCOE shows dramatic improvements LCOE Forecast by Technology, 2010‐2020 $0.15 $0.15 $0.15 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.13 $0.12 $0.12 LCOE ($/kWh) $0.11 $0.11 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 21
  22. 22. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Market Share AnalysisCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 22
  23. 23. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 23
  24. 24. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share 3 Largest System Manufacturers have over 50% share CSP Market Share by System Manufacturer For all global projects in operation, or under construction/development AREVA Albiasa 1% 2% Ingemetal Sener 1% Iberdrola 1% 3% Siemens (Solel) 4% Acciona 6% BrightSource 18% Infinia 8% eSolar 17% Abengoa 10% STA (Solar  Millennium &  Stirling Ferrostaal) 11% 16% Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 24
  25. 25. CSP Overview Global Pipeline US Market LCOE Market Share California utilities are responding to the 33% by 2020 RPS  CSP Market Share by Electricity Purchaser For all global projects in operation, or under construction/development APS SDG&E3% 4% Endesa 4% SCE 51% PG&E 28% Source: GTM ResearchCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 25
  26. 26. Conclusions  • CSP pipeline is massive, but challenges remain • Spain largest market today, but future prospects are brighter  in the US • LCOE will be a key consideration for utilities trying to meet  RPS requirements – While all solar will improve their LCOE over time, several CSP  technologies will not be able to keep up with PV – But CSP should benefit from key differentiators including: • Better power quality • Ability to economically incorporate thermal storage to provide firm powerCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 26
  27. 27. Q&A Brett Prior, CFA Senior Analyst GTM Research prior@gtmresearch.comCOPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 27

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