COAL & COKE :GLOBAL SCENARIO IN 2010             ASHEESH BHAT             NOBLE RESOURCES PTE LTD.             SINGAPORE.
WORLD CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION                       ASIA ALL THE WAY                       CHINA LEADS ... BY            ...
INCREASE IN CRUDE STEEL PROD. IN Q1 2010                                  Source : World steel
SIGNS OF HEALTHY RECOVERY IN 2010“THE RECOVERY IS EARLIER THAN FORECASTAND STRONGER THAN FORECAST “                       ...
CHINA’S POSITION IN WORLD STEEL          PRODUCTION                        Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
WORLD MET COAL FLOW : 2010 - 2011                       EUROPE                          60                   N. ASIACANADA...
TOTAL IMPORTS OF MET COAL (BY REGION)                           Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
MET COAL IMPORTS IN ASIA                     Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
MET COKE NET EXPORTS (EXPORT – IMPORT)                                                       Source : McCloskey’s Coal Qua...
MET COKE : GLOBAL SNAPSHOT                                         CIS                                         EX: 1,5    ...
RECAP OF 2009:   DEMAND DESTRUCTION.   MANY MILLS DEFAULTED ON CONTRACTS IN Q4 2008 AND 2009.   STEEL MILLS OPERATING A...
2010 : A NEW CHAPTER   REVIVAL IN GLOBAL ECONOMY.   STEEL MILLS IMPROVE CAPACITY UTILISATION.   QUARTERLY PRICING SYSTE...
WHAT TO EXPECT THIS YEAR   QUARTERLY PRICING FOR MET-COAL.   VOLATILITY AND FLUCTUATIONS.   STRONG SPOT MARKET FOR COAL...
CHINA .... FOCUS OF COAL & COKE TRADE      CHINA PROVED A SAVIOUR OF COAL MARKETS IN 2009.      IF CHINA CONTINUES TO IM...
PROBABLY WHAT WE NEED IS .................              ............... A CRYSTAL BALL !!!    THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME !!!
ABOUT NOBLENoble Group (SGX: N21) is a market leader in managing the global supply chain of agricultural,industrial and en...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Global Update for Metallurgical Coke and Coking Coal 2010

1,532 views

Published on

Coal and Coke: The Global Scenario in 2010
- Global steel / coal and coke demand supply (macro view)
- Recent developments in the market
- What to expect in 2010?
- China's influence on the coal and coke markets
Author:
Asheesh Bhat, Manager - Coal & Coke, NOBLE ENERGY, UK

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Global Update for Metallurgical Coke and Coking Coal 2010

  1. 1. COAL & COKE :GLOBAL SCENARIO IN 2010 ASHEESH BHAT NOBLE RESOURCES PTE LTD. SINGAPORE.
  2. 2. WORLD CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION  ASIA ALL THE WAY  CHINA LEADS ... BY FAR  BIG DIP IN 2009, ESPECIALLY FOR MARKETS OTHER THAN ASIA.  BRIC COUNTRIES FORECASTED TO GROW FASTEST Source: McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
  3. 3. INCREASE IN CRUDE STEEL PROD. IN Q1 2010 Source : World steel
  4. 4. SIGNS OF HEALTHY RECOVERY IN 2010“THE RECOVERY IS EARLIER THAN FORECASTAND STRONGER THAN FORECAST “ - IAN CHRISTMAS SECRETARY GENERAL WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION  AGAINST A DROP OF 6.7% IN 2009, THIS YEAR’S APPARENT STEEL DEMAND PROJECTED TO GROW BY 10.7%.  CHINA AND INDIA WERE ONLY TWO MAJOR MARKETS WHICH GREW LAST YEAR .... AND THIS YEAR PROJECTED TO KEEP GROWING FURTHER
  5. 5. CHINA’S POSITION IN WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
  6. 6. WORLD MET COAL FLOW : 2010 - 2011 EUROPE 60 N. ASIACANADA CHINA 96 25 40 USA 45 INDIA 25 S. AMERICA 16 AUSTRALIA 145
  7. 7. TOTAL IMPORTS OF MET COAL (BY REGION) Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
  8. 8. MET COAL IMPORTS IN ASIA Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
  9. 9. MET COKE NET EXPORTS (EXPORT – IMPORT) Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly2009 WAS AN AMAZING YEAR WHERE ASIA BECAME A NET IMPORTER WHILE NORTHAMERICA WAS A NET EXPORTER OF MET COKE !!!!!
  10. 10. MET COKE : GLOBAL SNAPSHOT CIS EX: 1,5 IM: 0.5 USA EUROPE IM:3.5 EX: 1.0 CHINA IM: 3.0 JAPAN EX: 5.0 EX: 1.0 IM: 0.5 COLOMBIA EX: 0.5 INDIA AFRICA EX: 1.0 EX: 0.5 IM: 3.0 IM:0.5 BRAZIL IM:1.5
  11. 11. RECAP OF 2009: DEMAND DESTRUCTION. MANY MILLS DEFAULTED ON CONTRACTS IN Q4 2008 AND 2009. STEEL MILLS OPERATING AT AROUND 50% CAPACITY. STEEL MILLS SELLING COKE RATHER THAN BUYING COKE. CHINA ABSENT FROM COKE MARKET AND EMERGED ONE OF THE BIGGEST IMPORTERS OF MET COAL. INSPITE OF OVERALL CRISIS, METCOAL BENCHMARK PRICE WAS 2ND ALL TIME HIGH.
  12. 12. 2010 : A NEW CHAPTER REVIVAL IN GLOBAL ECONOMY. STEEL MILLS IMPROVE CAPACITY UTILISATION. QUARTERLY PRICING SYSTEM INTRODUCED IN MET COAL. ALREADY 2ND ALL TIME HIGH PRICE ACHIEVED FOR Q1. CHINA RESUMES MET COKE EXPORTS. STEEL MILLS ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE BACK WITH DEMAND FOR SEABORNE MET COKE. UNLESS CHINA EXPORTS CLOSE TO 14MMT AS IT USED TO DO IN THE PAST, THE WORLD IS SHORT OF COKE AND THE GAP IS BIG !!!
  13. 13. WHAT TO EXPECT THIS YEAR QUARTERLY PRICING FOR MET-COAL. VOLATILITY AND FLUCTUATIONS. STRONG SPOT MARKET FOR COAL AND COKE. AUSSIE COAL SUPPLY TIGHT. US COAL TRIES TO CAPTURE BIGGER SHARE IN ASIA. CHINA CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CRUCIAL PLAYER (BOTH IN MET COAL & COKE). INDIA’S POSITION IN GLOBAL CONTEXT. COKE MARKET SUPPLY IS FUNDAMENTALLY TIGHT.
  14. 14. CHINA .... FOCUS OF COAL & COKE TRADE CHINA PROVED A SAVIOUR OF COAL MARKETS IN 2009. IF CHINA CONTINUES TO IMPORT 35 – 40MMT , WORLD COAL MARKETS WOULD REMAIN FIRM. IF CHINA STOPS IMPORT OF COAL ..... ??? CHINA’S BUSINESS COMPATIBLE WITH QUARTERLY PRICING SYSTEM. WILL CHINA KEEP EXPORTING COKE? COKE MARKET HAS A FLOOR PRICE FOR CHINA TO SUPPLY COKE.
  15. 15. PROBABLY WHAT WE NEED IS ................. ............... A CRYSTAL BALL !!! THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME !!!
  16. 16. ABOUT NOBLENoble Group (SGX: N21) is a market leader in managing the global supply chain of agricultural,industrial and energy products. The Group operates from over 100 offices in more than 40countries, serving 4000+ customers. Noble manages a diversified portfolio of essential rawmaterials, integrating the sourcing, marketing, processing, financing and transportation. With2008 annual revenues exceeding US$36 billion, Noble owns and manages an array of strategicassets, sourcing from low cost producers such as Brazil, Argentina, Australia and Indonesia andsupplying to high growth demand markets including China, India and the Middle East. Today,Noble has interests in grain crushing facilities, coal and iron ore mines, fuel terminals andstorage facilities, sugar and ethanol plants, vessels, ports and other infrastructure to ensurehigh quality products are delivered in the most efficient and timely manner to its customers.In 2009, Noble ranked #218 on the Fortune Global 500 and achieved "Investment Grade"ratings (Baa3) from Moodys Investors Service and (BBB-) from Standard & Poors,complementing its initial "Investment Grade" rating (BBB-) from Fitch the previous year. Inaddition, Noble appears on the Forbes Global 2000 and Forbes Fab 50 lists of leadingcompanies. Noble Group is among the 30 securities listed on the Straits Times Index.

×