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Central Asia: Internet Structure and Trends
Jim Cowie, Chief Scientist
@jimcowie / @DynResearch
Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
1...
/ 2 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
NOTE: Some cities host multiple collectors. Cable Map credit: Telegeography
Active Measuremen...
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The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corr...
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The Importance of Internet Measurement
Jim Cowie, Chief Scientist
@jimcowie / @DynResearch
Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
10 Dec...
/ 24 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
NOTE: Some cities host multiple collectors. Cable Map credit: Telegeography
Active Measureme...
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corr...
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corr...
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corr...
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corr...
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/ 31 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Transit Strategies for ISPs
Kyrgyz ISPs have different strategies for
interconnection.
We ca...
/ 32 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Primary/Secondary
ElCat maintains BGP
visibility through a
single provider,
Vimpelcom, very
...
/ 33 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Diversity Strategy
AKNET splits virtually
50-50 in terms of BGP
path selection
between IPNET...
/ 34 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Mega-Line
Phased out Kaztranscom
transit in June
Became single-homed to
IPNET this summer
Br...
/ 35 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Kyrgyztelecom
Kyrgyztelecom splits
transit between
Kazakhtelecom and
Kvant Telekom
More addr...
/ 36 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Much Can Be Learned from Simply Counting
Let’s take a look at various populations of Autonom...
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/ 40 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Percent of National Market On-Net
Germany 9% EUNetworks AS13237
Czech Republic 12% Telefonic...
/ 41 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
Internationally Connected (Cross-Border) ASNs
Germany 9% EUNetworks AS13237 894 of 1,363
Cze...
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/ 50 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
The Importance of Internet Measurement
Jim Cowie, Chief Scientist
@jimcowie / @DynResearch
Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
10 Dec...
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Central Asia: Internet Structure and Trends (DYN)

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Not merely landlocked, but often doubly landlocked

Reliance on neighbors’ terrestrial connectivity is unavoidable

The challenge:
increase Internet diversity, reduce latency and cost

Published in: Internet
  • Keynote: Regional connectivity in Central Asia - James Cowie, Chief Scientist, Dyn ; Video: https://new.livestream.com/internetsociety/Bishkek2014/videos/70815820
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Central Asia: Internet Structure and Trends (DYN)

  1. 1. Central Asia: Internet Structure and Trends Jim Cowie, Chief Scientist @jimcowie / @DynResearch Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic 10 December 2014
  2. 2. / 2 @jimcowie / @DynResearch NOTE: Some cities host multiple collectors. Cable Map credit: Telegeography Active Measurement Infrastructure
  3. 3. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 3 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Central Asia Not merely landlocked, but often doubly landlocked Reliance on neighbors’ terrestrial connectivity is unavoidable The challenge: increase Internet diversity, reduce latency and cost
  4. 4. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 4 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Top Sites: Kyrgyz Republic 1.  Google.com 58ms, service from GGC in Voronezh 2.  Youtube.com 65ms, service from Google Moscow 3.  Elcat.kg <5ms, Bishkek 4.  Mail.ru 66ms, Moscow 5.  Facebook.com 204ms, Washington, DC 6.  Odnoklassniki.ru 66ms, Moscow 7.  Yandex.ru 67ms, Moscow 8.  Vk.com 76ms, St Petersburg 9.  Ts.kg <5ms, Bishkek 10.  Ok.ru 66ms, Moscow
  5. 5. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 5 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Top Sites: Kyrgyz Republic 1.  Google.com 2.  Youtube.com 3.  Elcat.kg 4.  Mail.ru 5.  Facebook.com 6.  Odnoklassniki.ru 7.  Yandex.ru 8.  Vk.com 9.  Ts.kg 10.  Ok.ru 11.  Namba.kg 12.  Wikipedia.org 13.  Google.ru 14.  Blive.kg 15.  Torrent.kg 16.  Google.kg 17.  Amazon.com 18.  Akipress.org 19.  Adme.ru 20.  Aliexpress.com 21.  Vb.kg 22.  Instagram.com 23.  Alibaba.com 24.  Yahoo.com 25.  Bolshoyvopros.ru 26.  Ebay.com 27.  Twitter.com 28.  Super.kg 29.  Rutracker.org 30.  Blogspot.com
  6. 6. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 6 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Supply and Demand Central Asian consumers, businesses need to reach content markets in Russia, the United States, and China. How does traffic flow today?
  7. 7. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 7 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Kazakhstan exports Russian transit to all neighbors Tajikistan and Turkmenistan each have two choices. Afghanistan has 3. China is still not a visible participant Choice is Important
  8. 8. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 8 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Watersheds’ Central Asian consumers, businesses need to reach content markets in Russia, the United States, and China. How might traffic flow tomorrow?
  9. 9. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 9 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Watersheds’ Russian connectivity: most traffic heads through Moscow en route to Frankfurt, London, Stockholm Southern routes through Ukraine are also available (for the moment)
  10. 10. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 10 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Alternative Watersheds’ 1 Balkan connectivity: Azeri, Armenian, Iranian paths join east-west Turkish pipeline routes for fiber via Ankara, Istanbul Black Sea routes from Baku-Tbilisi-Poti-Varna- Sofia avoid Istanbul
  11. 11. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 11 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Watersheds’ Submarine connectivity: major cables transiting the Suez en route to European markets Iran, Pakistan have excellent connectivity to UAE, Oman (SMW3, SMW4, FLAG, etc.) ‘Alternative Watersheds’ 2
  12. 12. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 12 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Watersheds’ Chinese connectivity: challenging from both a latency, reliability perspective China has its own problems reaching world markets reliably Still, a potential source of diversity ‘Alternative Watersheds’ 3
  13. 13. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 13 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Watersheds’ Combine these 4 watersheds and simplify. What emerges, strategically?
  14. 14. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 14 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Watersheds’ Key transit cities: •  Moscow •  Istanbul •  Dubai •  Beijing
  15. 15. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 15 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ‘Watersheds’ Key transit cities: •  Moscow •  Istanbul •  Dubai •  Beijing Baku and Tehran are the natural hingepoint
  16. 16. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 16 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Four Paths to Diversity We still need to incorporate either •  The Iranian terrestrial network, or •  A route crossing the Caspian Sea,or •  An Afghan-Pakistani alternative path to the sea Baku and Tehran are the natural hingepoint Key transit cities: •  Moscow •  Istanbul •  Dubai •  Beijing
  17. 17. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 17 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Iran’s Terrestrial Net Iran already provides considerable Internet support to its neighbors, including: •  Turkmenistan •  Iraqi Kurdistan •  Western Afghanistan Iran can access all three western watersheds: Russia, Turkey, submarine
  18. 18. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 18 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Crossing the Caspian Sea Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan plan to build the transcaspian wet segment. Only a few formalities remain before construction can begin.
  19. 19. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 19 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Iran’s Terrestrial Net Iran already provides considerable Internet support to its neighbors, including: •  Turkmenistan •  Iraqi Kurdistan •  Western Afghanistan Iran can access all three western watersheds: Russia, Turkey, submarine
  20. 20. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 20 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Iran’s Terrestrial Net Iran already provides considerable Internet support to its neighbors, including: •  Turkmenistan •  Iraqi Kurdistan •  Western Afghanistan Iran can access all three western watersheds: Russia, Turkey, submarine
  21. 21. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 21 @jimcowie / @DynResearch A Novel Path To The Sea CASA-1000 project could interconnect electrical grids from Kyrgyz Republic to Pakistan Includes 24 strands of single- mode fiber, of which 100Mbps is committed for grid operations Bishkek could be 40ms from Persian Gulf submarine connectivity!
  22. 22. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 22 @jimcowie / @DynResearch In Summary…. The Internet Improves When Diversity Increases Diversity drives higher reliability, lower prices Central Asia is gaining new routes that send traffic through several different “watersheds” Later today we’ll explore these changes in more detail!
  23. 23. The Importance of Internet Measurement Jim Cowie, Chief Scientist @jimcowie / @DynResearch Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic 10 December 2014
  24. 24. / 24 @jimcowie / @DynResearch NOTE: Some cities host multiple collectors. Cable Map credit: Telegeography Active Measurement Infrastructure
  25. 25. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 25 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Why We Measure, and What We Measure 1.  The relationships Who participates in each market: retail, wholesale Nature of their bilateral agreement: peering or transit 2.  The paths There are many, many ways traffic can flow between two providers in two cities 3.  Performance and Reliability Reachability, Round-trip latency, Variance over time
  26. 26. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 26 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Vocabulary of Interconnection “Routed Network” or “Routed Prefix” Range of IP Addresses used for a particular function (here, the World Bank’s office in Bishkek) =
  27. 27. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 27 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Vocabulary of Interconnection “Routed Network” or “Routed Prefix” “Autonomous System” Any organization that requests an AS Number can route its own prefixes on the global Internet.
  28. 28. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 28 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Vocabulary of Interconnection “Routed Network” or “Routed Prefix” “Autonomous System” $€ “Transit” When one ASN purchases transit from another ASN, the provider agrees to carry the customer’s traffic anywhere on Earth it needs to go.
  29. 29. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 29 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Vocabulary of Interconnection “Routed Network” or “Routed Prefix” “Autonomous System” $€ “Peering”“Transit” When two ASNs agree to peer together, they are agreeing to exchange traffic between their customers. This saves money on transit and can improve performance.
  30. 30. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 30 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Connectivity Example Kazakhstan’s largest bank buys Internet transit from two providers satellite
  31. 31. / 31 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Transit Strategies for ISPs Kyrgyz ISPs have different strategies for interconnection. We can look over a period of months or years at the percentage of BGP paths inbound through each transit provider. More providers == more diversity == lower risks of disconnection
  32. 32. / 32 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Primary/Secondary ElCat maintains BGP visibility through a single provider, Vimpelcom, very consistently over months of observation …But on certain days, Orbita Plus is brought in for satellite transit.
  33. 33. / 33 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Diversity Strategy AKNET splits virtually 50-50 in terms of BGP path selection between IPNET and Kaztranscom.
  34. 34. / 34 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Mega-Line Phased out Kaztranscom transit in June Became single-homed to IPNET this summer Brought in Vimpelcom transit briefly in September
  35. 35. / 35 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Kyrgyztelecom Kyrgyztelecom splits transit between Kazakhtelecom and Kvant Telekom More address space appears each day through Kvant paths than through Kazakhtelecom paths
  36. 36. / 36 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Much Can Be Learned from Simply Counting Let’s take a look at various populations of Autonomous Systems (ASNs) by country, across Central Asia and in nearby markets.
  37. 37. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 37 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Domestic ASNs The routed Internet consists of 49,108 ASNs worldwide (29 Nov 2014) A domestic ASN has at least 80% of its routed customers in a single country Compare: •  Ukraine: 1,708 •  Germany: 1,358 •  UK: 1,390 •  Netherlands: 616 3 11 30 284 310 35 718 73 102 4,527 38 33
  38. 38. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 38 @jimcowie / @DynResearch ASNs per capita Domestic ASNs per million population, 2014 Compare: •  Ukraine: 39.7 •  Germany: 16.8 •  UK: 21.4 •  Netherlands: 36.2 •  USA: 48.0 Worldwide: 7.10 0.50 1.38 5.0 0.21 3.97 1.35 0.57 0.39 6.0 31.0 1.35 3.3
  39. 39. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 39 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Frontier ASNs A frontier ASN has at least one direct interconnection with a foreign ASN Countries with more frontier ASNs have more diversity of interconnection Fewer than 5: vulnerable to national disconnection (Syria, Yemen, N. Korea) 2 of 3 8 of 11 7 of 30 52 of 284 9 of 310 15 of 35 42 of 718 6 of 73 21 of 102 339 of 4,527 1 of 38 3 of 33
  40. 40. / 40 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Percent of National Market On-Net Germany 9% EUNetworks AS13237 Czech Republic 12% Telefonica CZ AS5610 Poland 22% Netia AS12741 Romania 29% Romtelecom AS9050 Ukraine 29% Datagroup AS21219 Bulgaria 33% BTC AS8866 Armenia 36% GNC-ALFA AS6682 Georgia 37% Caucasus Online AS16010 Kyrgyz Republic 43% KyrgyzTelecom AS12997 Tajikistan 45% Babilon-T AS24722 Russia 49% Rostelecom AS12389 Belarus 68% Beltelecom AS6697 Turkey 83% Turk Telekom AS9121 Kazakhstan 87% Kazakhtelecom AS9198 Azerbaijan 90% Delta Telecom AS29049 Turkmenistan 97% Turkmen Telecom AS20661 Low largest- provider share suggests strong market competition… Among 112 countries worldwide: •  Median 42% •  Average 45%
  41. 41. / 41 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Internationally Connected (Cross-Border) ASNs Germany 9% EUNetworks AS13237 894 of 1,363 Czech Republic 12% Telefonica CZ AS5610 189 of 368 Poland 22% Netia AS12741 583 of 1,700 Romania 29% Romtelecom AS9050 494 of 1,121 Ukraine 29% Datagroup AS21219 208 of 1,654 Bulgaria 33% BTC AS8866 167 of 477 Armenia 36% GNC-ALFA AS6682 11 of 58 Georgia 37% Caucasus Online AS16010 25 of 50 Kyrgyz Republic 43% KyrgyzTelecom AS12997 7 of 30 Tajikistan 45% Babilon-T AS24722 9 of 12 Russia 49% Rostelecom AS12389 356 of 4,514 Belarus 68% Beltelecom AS6697 4 of 87 Turkey 83% Turk Telekom AS9121 27 of 329 Kazakhstan 87% Kazakhtelecom AS9198 23 of 102 Azerbaijan 90% Delta Telecom AS29049 3 of 33 Turkmenistan 97% Turkmen Telecom AS20661 2 of 3
  42. 42. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 42 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Bishkek latencies are typically 100-150ms for Europe Note slow speeds to China, Middle East RTTs
  43. 43. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 43 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Multiple Paths Amsterdam to Kyrgyztelecom Purple band: 100-180ms via Kvant Telecom Red bands: 190ms/ 220ms via TTK (two physical paths)
  44. 44. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 44 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Measuring Failover Kyrgyz example from 9 July 2014 ElCat (AS8449) loses connectivity through Vimpelcom (AS3216) and fails over to TNS-Plus (AS197556)
  45. 45. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 45 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Watersheds Again… How do neighbors cooperate to increase the choices available to everyone? Can we measure that process?
  46. 46. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 46 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Kyrgyzstan Exports Internet Connectivity Tajikistan relies critically on Kyrgyz connectivity for Internet and mobile service in Dushanbe
  47. 47. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 47 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Measuring a Market Shift: First Signs October 2014: Tajik provider Saturn-Online stops buying transit from Kyrgyz Telecom – why?
  48. 48. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 48 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Pakistani Transit for Tajikistan via Afghanistan Just appeared on Friday, 5 December ‘Special’ transit for the small network that hosts vkontakte.tj
  49. 49. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. / 49 @jimcowie / @DynResearch Summary: Internet Measurement Matters Traditionally regulators and policymakers have waited for ISPs to self-report interconnection and performance changes. The most important metrics (latency, reliability, interconnections) can now be tracked daily as the local and regional market evolves. The Central Asian regional market has several plausible strategies for expanding diversity and improving access to international markets. It’s exciting to see regional ISPs cooperate and interconnect!
  50. 50. / 50 @jimcowie / @DynResearch
  51. 51. The Importance of Internet Measurement Jim Cowie, Chief Scientist @jimcowie / @DynResearch Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic 10 December 2014

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