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Webinar
The IPCC’s 1.5°C Report: Critical
opportunities for social science to
shape the future
Opinions, conclusions or re...
Agenda
Setting the context – the scoping process and outcomes – Susi Moser (moderator)
The forthcoming 1.5°C Report – cont...
The IPCC’s 1.5°C Report:
Critical opportunities for social science
to shape the future
Overview of the process to date
Sus...
The Path to the Special Report on 1.5°C
The Paris Agreement
The Path to the Special Report on 1.5 °C
43rd Session of the IPCC
11-13 April 2016
Nairobi, Kenya
Accepted the invitation ...
Members of the SSC
S. MOSER
ISSC
P. ZHAI
CO-CHAIR WG I
V. MASSON-DELMOTTE
CO-CHAIR WG I
M.-H. PARIZEAU
COMEST
H. PÖRTNER
C...
Agreed short report title:
“Global warming of 1.5°C”
The Path to the Special Report on 1.5 °C
43rd Session of the IPCC
11-...
Intense negotiations in Bangkok
• Availability of relevant literature
• Inclusion of a chapter on
sustainability; equity a...
Comparison of Outlines
Expert-agreed Outline - Geneva
• Front Matter (2 pages)
• Summary for Policy Makers (15-20 pages)
•...
The Path Forward
Photos: IPCC
Frank Geels
Professor of System
Innovation and
Sustainability, Sustainable
Consumption Institute
University of Manchester
...
Q&A and Panel Discussion
Image:http://thehipp.org/
Opportunities to Contribute
to the 1.5°C Report
• Respond to the call for authors from your country’s focal point for the
...
Thank you
transformations@worldsocialscience.org
Opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this webinar are th...
Appendix
Detailed comparison of the Scoping Meeting-approved outline and the IPCC-
approved outline of the Special Report ...
Front matter
Scoping Mtg Outline
• IPCC context
• Building on AR5
• Assessing literature since AR5
• Reports to come in th...
Chapter 1: Framing and Context
Scoping Mtg Outline
• Understanding 1.5°C; reference levels,
probability, transience, overs...
Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways compatible with
1.5°C in the context of sustainable development
Scoping Mtg Outline
• Metho...
Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming
on natural and human systems
Scoping Mtg Outline
• Methods of assessment
• Obse...
Chapter 4: Strengthening the global response
to the threat of climate change (original title)
Scoping Mtg Outline
• Assess...
Chapter 5: Approaches to implementing a
strengthened global response to the threat of
climate change (original title)
Scop...
New title for combined chapter
Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing
the global response to the threat of climate
chan...
Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty
eradication, and reducing inequalities
Scoping Mtg Outline
• Linkages between ...
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The IPCC's 1.5°C Report: Critical Opportunities for Social Science to Shape the Future - Susi Moser

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This presentation was given as part of the webinar ‘The IPCC’s 1.5C Report: critical opportunities for social science to shape the future’, which took place on October 31 2016.

Ioan Fazey, Frank Geels, Bronwyn Hayward, Susi Moser, Petra Tschakert and other experts from the sustainability science community took part in a discussion on opportunities for social science in the forthcoming Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the impacts of global warming 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways.

You can watch a recording of the webinar here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-d33yYpAZw

The seminar was organized by the International Social Science Council (ISSC) through the Transformations to Sustainability programme. Each speaker is responsible for the photos and ideas contained in his/her PowerPoint, which are not necessarily those of the ISSC or the Transformations to Sustainability programme`s funders.

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The IPCC's 1.5°C Report: Critical Opportunities for Social Science to Shape the Future - Susi Moser

  1. 1. Webinar The IPCC’s 1.5°C Report: Critical opportunities for social science to shape the future Opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this webinar are those of the contributors; the ISSC and its partners in the Transformations to Sustainability Programme accept no liability in this regard. Monday, 31 October 2016
  2. 2. Agenda Setting the context – the scoping process and outcomes – Susi Moser (moderator) The forthcoming 1.5°C Report – contributions and progress to date - Petra Tschakert - Frank Geels - Ioan Fazey - Bronwyn Hayward Q&A and panel discussion about how the social sciences can contribute to the IPCC process and the literature on 1.5°C The next steps in the process and how to contribute – Susi Moser www.worldsocialscience.org
  3. 3. The IPCC’s 1.5°C Report: Critical opportunities for social science to shape the future Overview of the process to date Susi Moser, Ph.D. ISSC Senior Advisor, Transformations to Sustainability Programme IPCC SSC Member
  4. 4. The Path to the Special Report on 1.5°C The Paris Agreement
  5. 5. The Path to the Special Report on 1.5 °C 43rd Session of the IPCC 11-13 April 2016 Nairobi, Kenya Accepted the invitation to prepare a Special Report on 1.5°C • SSC (WG I, II, III; TFI) + social, human science representation Photos: IISD/ENB
  6. 6. Members of the SSC S. MOSER ISSC P. ZHAI CO-CHAIR WG I V. MASSON-DELMOTTE CO-CHAIR WG I M.-H. PARIZEAU COMEST H. PÖRTNER CO-CHAIR WG II D. ROBERTS CO-CHAIR WG II Photos: IISD/ENB, M. Stafford-Smith, Université Laval
  7. 7. Agreed short report title: “Global warming of 1.5°C” The Path to the Special Report on 1.5 °C 43rd Session of the IPCC 11-13 April 2016 Nairobi, Kenya Accepted the invitation to prepare a Special Report on 1.5°C 44th Session of the IPCC 17-20 October 2016 Bangkok, Thailand Revised and approved the outline for the a Special Report on 1.5°C IPCC 1.5 SR Scoping Meeting 15-18 August 2016 Geneva, Switzerland • SSC (WG I, II, III; TFI) + social, human science rep • Nominations for scoping mtg and expert selection • Questionnaire • Background paper • Scoping meeting agendaPhotos: IISD/ENB, WMO
  8. 8. Intense negotiations in Bangkok • Availability of relevant literature • Inclusion of a chapter on sustainability; equity and ethics • Negative emissions/geoengineering • Differentiation of Chapters 4 (intervention opportunities) and 5 (implementation options) Photos: IISD/ENB
  9. 9. Comparison of Outlines Expert-agreed Outline - Geneva • Front Matter (2 pages) • Summary for Policy Makers (15-20 pages) • Chapter 1: Framing and context (15 pages) • Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development (40 pages) • Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems (60 pages) • Chapter 4: Strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change (40 pages) • Chapter 5: Approaches to implementing a strengthened global response to the threat of climate change (20 pages) • Chapter 6: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities (40 pages) • Up to 10 boxes - integrated case studies/regional and cross-cutting themes (20 pages) • FAQs (10 pages) Approved Outline by IPCC - Bangkok • Front Matter (2 pages) • Summary for Policy Makers (up to 10 pages, incl. headline statements, tables, figures) • Chapter 1: Framing and context (15 pages) • Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development (40 pages) • Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems (60 pages) • Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change (50 pages) • Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities (20 pages) • Boxes - integrated case studies/regional and cross- cutting themes (up to 20 pages) • FAQs (10 pages)
  10. 10. The Path Forward Photos: IPCC
  11. 11. Frank Geels Professor of System Innovation and Sustainability, Sustainable Consumption Institute University of Manchester Ioan Fazey Chair of Social Dimensions of Environmental Change University of Dundee Bronwyn Hayward Director of the Sustainable Citizenship and Civic Imagination Program University of Canterbury Petra Tschakert Professor at the School of Earth and Environment University of Western Australia
  12. 12. Q&A and Panel Discussion Image:http://thehipp.org/
  13. 13. Opportunities to Contribute to the 1.5°C Report • Respond to the call for authors from your country’s focal point for the IPCC • If nominated and selected, be an active author • Elicit help from colleagues to cover necessary expertise • Publish relevant research, fast! • Make explicit reference to 1.5°C • Look out for various Special Issue opportunities on 1.5°C (e.g., COSUST, Elementa) • Look out for near-term funding opportunities (e.g., ClimateWorks Foundation, NORFACE, Belmont Forum) • Respond to calls for expert review of IPCC report drafts • Learn more and follow developments at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/
  14. 14. Thank you transformations@worldsocialscience.org Opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this webinar are those of the contributors; the ISSC and its partners in the Transformations to Sustainability Programme accept no liability in this regard.
  15. 15. Appendix Detailed comparison of the Scoping Meeting-approved outline and the IPCC- approved outline of the Special Report on 1.5°C
  16. 16. Front matter Scoping Mtg Outline • IPCC context • Building on AR5 • Assessing literature since AR5 • Reports to come in this cycle • Context of UNFCCC invitation • Specificity of this report within the cycle (integration, systems- and solutions-based approach, near-term) • Laying the foundations for the Special Report in the context of strengthening the global response to climate change, sustainable development and poverty eradication IPCC-approved Outline • IPCC context o Building on AR5 o Assessing literature since AR5 o Reports to come in this cycle • Context of UNFCCC invitation • Specificity of this report within the cycle (integration, systems- and solutions-based approach, near-term) • Laying the foundations for the Special Report in the context of strengthening the global response to climate change, sustainable development and poverty eradication
  17. 17. Chapter 1: Framing and Context Scoping Mtg Outline • Understanding 1.5°C; reference levels, probability, transience, overshoot, stabilization • 1.5°C in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, with consideration for ethics and equity • Key concepts central to understanding the report • Building on AR5: new information, integrative approaches, response options: opportunities and challenges • Assessment and methodologies across spatial and time scales and treatment of uncertainty • Storyline of the report IPCC-approved Outline • Understanding 1.5°C; reference levels, probability, transience, overshoot, stabilization • 1.5°C in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, with consideration for ethics and equity • Key concepts central to understanding the report • Building on AR5: new information, integrative approaches, response options • Assessment and methodologies across spatial and time scales • Treatment of uncertainty • Storyline of the report
  18. 18. Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development Scoping Mtg Outline • Methods of assessment and assumptions in the literature • Constraints on and uncertainties in global greenhouse gas emissions and other climate drivers for limiting warming to 1.5°C • Characteristics of mitigation and development pathways compatible with 1.5°C, compared to 2°C and higher as relevant, including short and long term, sectorial, regional, demand/supply-side; technological and socio-economic implications etc. • Technological, environmental, institutional and socio-economic opportunities and challenges related to 1.5°C pathways IPCC-approved Outline • Methods of assessment and assumptions in the literature • Constraints on, and uncertainties in, global greenhouse gas emissions consistent with warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C, considering short lived and other climate drivers and taking into account uncertainty in climate sensitivity • Characteristics of mitigation and development pathways compatible with 1.5°C compared with 2°C and, where warranted by the literature, comparison with higher levels of warming. This may include short and long term timeframes, sectorial, regional, demand/supply-side, technological and socio-economic implications • Technological, environmental, institutional and socio-economic opportunities and challenges related to 1.5°C pathways
  19. 19. Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems Scoping Mtg Outline • Methods of assessment • Observed and attributable global and regional climate changes and impacts and the adaptation experience • Key global and regional climate changes, vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, including adaptation potential and limits • Avoided impacts and reduced risks at 1.5°C compared to 2°C and higher as relevant • Timeframe, slow vs. fast onset, irreversibility and tipping points • Implications of different mitigation pathways for reaching 1.5°C, including potential overshoot, for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability IPCC-approved Outline • Methods of assessment • Observed and attributable global and regional climate changes and impacts and the adaptation experience • Key global and regional climate changes, vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, taking into account adaptation potential and limits to adaptive capacity • Key sectoral vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, taking into account adaptation potential, limits to adaptive capacity and socio-economic aspects • Avoided impacts and reduced risks at 1.5°C compared with 2°C and, where warranted by the literature, comparison with higher levels of warming • Timeframe, slow vs. fast onset, irreversibility and tipping points • Implications for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of different mitigation pathways reaching 1.5°C, including potential overshoot
  20. 20. Chapter 4: Strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change (original title) Scoping Mtg Outline • Assessing current and emerging adaptation and mitigation options and associated opportunities and challenges • The pace of the development and deployment of mitigation and adaptation options compared to pathways consistent with sustainable development and 1.5 C • The potential and capacity for development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation responses to accelerate transitions and strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change within and across relevant scales and systems • Challenges to and opportunities from strengthened response options (e.g. current & future lock in, adaptive mitigation, consumption and production, negative emissions, food production, socio- economic); synergies and trade-offs among adaptation & mitigation options IPCC-approved Outline • Assessing current and emerging adaptation and mitigation options, including negative emission methodologies, and associated opportunities and challenges • Synergies, trade-offs and integration of adaptation and mitigation options • The pace of the development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation options compared to pathways consistent with sustainable development and 1.5°C • The potential and capacity limitations for development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation responses to accelerate transitions within and across scales and systems (e.g. food production, cities) (cont.)
  21. 21. Chapter 5: Approaches to implementing a strengthened global response to the threat of climate change (original title) Scoping Mtg Outline • Existing policies, institutions and actions • Options for implementing far- reaching and rapid change; implications, challenges, enabling environment; levels; and integration of action • Case studies for implementation at all scales and in different circumstances, and lessons learned IPCC-approved Outline (cont.) • Options for implementing far-reaching and rapid change; implications, challenges (e.g. lock in, spillover effects), enabling environments and across scales • Case studies for implementation of adaptation and mitigation options at different scales and circumstances, and lessons learned
  22. 22. New title for combined chapter Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change
  23. 23. Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication, and reducing inequalities Scoping Mtg Outline • Linkages between achieving SDGs and 1.5°C • Equity and ethical dimensions • Opportunities, challenges, risks, and trade-offs • Positive and negative impacts of adaptation and mitigation measures including response measures and strategies, economic diversification, livelihoods, food security, cities, ecosystems, technologies • Knowledge and experience from local to global, including case studies and integrated planning as relevant to aforementioned bullets • Climate-resilient development pathways IPCC-approved Outline • Linkages between achieving SDGs and 1.5°C • Distributional impacts arising from response options • Opportunities, challenges, risks, and trade-offs • Positive and negative impacts of adaptation and mitigation measures including response measures and strategies, economic diversification, livelihoods, food security, cities, ecosystems, technologies • Knowledge and experience from local to global, including case studies and integrated planning as relevant to aforementioned bullets • Climate-resilient development pathways

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