Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey

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Dynamics Day '11 - Guest speaker Bernard Hickey speaks about the Global Financial Crisis v2.0

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Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey

  1. 1. GFC v2.0Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  2. 2. • Market meltdown• Déjà vu all overagain• The new normal• Three scenarios• Lower for longer Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  3. 3. • Some big pictures• Deleveraging Inc• Great Repression• Hollowed out NZ• Ageing & nesting• Los Indignados• A stateless cloud Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  4. 4. But first a joke: Why did God create economists. Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  5. 5. To make weather forecasters look good Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  6. 6. Market meltdown/up Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  7. 7. The rate of fear Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  8. 8. Turning Japanese Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  9. 9. Deja vu all over again Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  10. 10. The new normal? Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  11. 11. Three scenarios: 1. Goldilocks 2. The Big Bad Wolf3. Sleeping beauty (ugly) Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  12. 12. The Goldilocks scenario: not to hot and not too cold Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  13. 13. •Extend andpretend works• Just enoughinflation to relievedebt burden• Political stability• Energy stability Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  14. 14. •Strong Chineseand Indian growthfor 10-20 years• High commodityprices, low inflation• Orderly markets• Low rates Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  15. 15. A great wall ofdemand for proteinand holidays inour time zone andhemisphere Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  16. 16. A world of protein Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  17. 17. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  18. 18. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  19. 19. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  20. 20. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  21. 21. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  22. 22. The Big Bad Wolf and thefour little PIGS Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  23. 23. •Developed worldchokes on too muchdumb debt• Extend andpretend fails•10-20 years of veryslow growth Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  24. 24. •China slows downto contain inflation• Lower commodityprices, lower NZ$• Slow to no growth• Markets volatile• Low rates Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  25. 25. A world of debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  26. 26. A world of debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  27. 27. Structural imbalance Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  28. 28. China’s savings rate Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  29. 29. Theinterconnected nature of the Big Bad Debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  30. 30. PIGS in a blanket Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  31. 31. It’s the household debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  32. 32. It’s the house prices Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  33. 33. It’s the net foreign debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  34. 34. Not so comfortable Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  35. 35. It’s the bloody peak oil Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  36. 36. China’s ghost cities Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  37. 37. Helicopter Ben Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  38. 38. Sleeping Beautyor should that be Sleeping Ugly Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  39. 39. The new normal? Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  40. 40. How NZ’s income,assets and people are being hollowed out Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  41. 41. The foreign drain Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  42. 42. The real problem Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  43. 43. They just left Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  44. 44. 40% support 60% Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  45. 45. ”By 2020 the number of new labour force entrants will be surpassed by the numbers retiring” Natalie Jackson Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  46. 46. Ageing and nesting Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  47. 47. Hollowed out NZ Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  48. 48. Young and angry Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  49. 49. Los Indignados Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  50. 50. A stateless cloud Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
  51. 51. A family snapshot Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011

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