5 Luis Ajamil New York Cruise Symposium June 2011

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5 Luis Ajamil New York Cruise Symposium June 2011

  1. 1. MEGA-TRENDSINFRASTRUCTUREJune 2011 Luis Ajamil Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  2. 2. As we look at mega-trends in facilities andinfrastructure, ports and cities need to think long-term and strategically Cruise lines are thinking short-term and operationally
  3. 3. Yesterday…………..• Line executives indicated that the future growth will occur when …….• Consumer demand • New offerings besides the fall leaves• Profitability – • Relative to other regions • Strength of the currencies• More ships to allow further deployment
  4. 4. What and when will it take?76543210 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
  5. 5. Market and growth
  6. 6. Worldwide expansion 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  7. 7. Worldwide and regional expansionConventional cruise passengers, 1995 - 2009 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000Passengers (000) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Asia Europe North America Sources: CLIA, PSA, B&A, 2010
  8. 8. North American capacity placement 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Caribbean Source: B&A, 2009.
  9. 9. North American vs. European growth 22.5% 9/11 U.S. recession 20.0% + Iraq War 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5% -5.0% N.A. Europe
  10. 10. European cruise market growth 180,000 7,000,000 160,000 6,000,000 140,000 5,000,000 120,000 Passengers 100,000 4,000,000 Beds 80,000 3,000,000 60,000 2,000,000 40,000 1,000,000 20,000 0 0 Bed Capacity (Demand) Market Capacity (Supply)
  11. 11. 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 12,000,000 Magic Kingdom Disneyland Global cruiseindustry Tokyo Disneyland EuroDisney Disney Sea EPCOT Disneys Hollywood Studios Disney Animal Kingdom Universal Studios EverlandDisney California Adventure Seaworld Universal Studios Top 25 worldwide attractions Ocean Park Nagashima Island Spa Islands of Adventure Hong Kong Disneyland Yokohama Hakkejimma Universal Studios Lotte World Europa Park SeaWorld Busch Gardens De Efteling Tivoli Gardens 36 million
  12. 12. Strategic industry growth factors FACTORS CONSTRAINT PASSENGERS >+40 M (NA only annual) SHIPS YES SHIP YARDS 12-14 SHIPS/YR CAPITAL / PROFITABILITY NO MANAGEMENT CAPACITY NO CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS YES and NO FUEL YES (NO) ITINERARIES EXPANSION WARM WEATHER PORTS EXPANSION COMPETITION FEW COMPANIES
  13. 13. Vessel deliveries16141210 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
  14. 14. Long-term vision
  15. 15. What’s realistic?• A little or no-growth vision• A moderate growth vision • Mediterranean maturity • Return of the US economy• Capital investments have to last for the long-term• Take years to execute
  16. 16. South Florida homeports 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Formative years MIAMI Consolidation New growth 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 PORT EVERGLADES 1,000,000 0
  17. 17. Ships
  18. 18. Average passengers per ship by year of construction 4,000 3,500 3456 3,000 2845 2703 2714 2,500 2200 2098 2077 2,000 1782 1833 1,500 1464 1427 1,000 On average cruise ships are increasing 500 passengers every three years
  19. 19. Fleet size projections80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 >2500 passengers >3000 passengers >4000 passengers
  20. 20. Homeports
  21. 21. Developing future infrastructure• CNE region has already put in a considerable effort… • NYC homeport berths – Manhattan and Brooklyn • Boston, Portland • Saint John – Cruise reception facilities • Halifax – Cruise Pier redevelopment • Sydney, Charlottetown, etc. with new berth and reception facilities…• BUT… to compete globally the region must focus on: • Marine infrastructure to accommodate future vessels • Consistent across the region• Soft support infrastructure to compete for future passengers • Diverse in each destination • Consistent in its quality and delivery
  22. 22. Homeport passenger movements – small ships2,0001,8001,600 TIME SEPARATION1,4001,2001,000 DIS EMBARKATION EMBARKATION 800 600 400 200 0 DISEMBARKING ARRIVING EMBARKING
  23. 23. Homeport passenger movements - today2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000 DIS EMBARKATION EMBARKATION 800 600 400 200 0 DISEMBARKING ARRIVING EMBARKING
  24. 24. The evolution of the cruise terminal TEMPORARY FACILITY CONVERSION OF EXISTING BUILDING NEW FACILITY JOINT DEVELOPMENT
  25. 25. The future terminal• Focus on processing passengers at the least cost• Lines expect better functioning terminals • Larger • More comfort • Two level operations • Multiple gangways • Elevators, escalators, etc
  26. 26. Traditional terminal concept Apron T T T GTA GTA GTA PARKING PARKING PARKIN
  27. 27. Combined terminal / off-site transportation Apron T GTA PARKING
  28. 28. Alternative Provisioning Quad Terminal Provisioning GTA / Parking Parking C Existing Cargo Area
  29. 29. Central terminal alternatives
  30. 30. Set performance standards
  31. 31. Passenger experience
  32. 32. Facilities without operational targets…• Will not work anymore• Ships are too big• Too many passengers• There is no such thing as a small ship or large ship port • The complexity of the fleet • The introduction of multiple class vessels • The mobility of the fleet• All ports must be flexible to support universal designs
  33. 33. Performance standards • Passenger experience • Time • Flow • Queues • Spaciousness • Direction • Friendliness • Cruise company • Cost • Efficiency • Labor • Turn around time • Passenger experience • Destination • Revenues and costs • Volumes
  34. 34. LOS – time to process Time to process Levels of service Level of service Total check-in Total disembark LOS A 10 min 20 min LOS B 15 min 30 min LOS C 20 min 40 min LOS D 25 min 50 min LOS E 30 min 60 min LOS F >30 min >60 min Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  35. 35. LOS – walking distances Walking distances Levels of service Level of service Feet Meters LOS A <500 <150 LOS B 1,500 500 LOS C 2,500 800 LOS D 3,000 1,000 LOS E 4,000 1,300 LOS F >5,000 1,600 Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  36. 36. LOS - corridor capacity Corridor capacity (passengers per minute) Levels of service Corridor width in meters Level of service 2 3 4 4.5 5 6 6.5 LOS A 66 99 132 165 198 231 264 LOS B 77 115 154 192 231 269 308 LOS C 88 132 176 220 264 308 352 LOS D 98 146 195 244 293 342 390 LOS E 110 164 219 274 329 384 438 LOS F 124 185 247 309 371 433 494 Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
  37. 37. LOS - Queuing / waiting capacity Spaciousness Level of service (LOS) Metric LOS A 1.3 mt2 per person or greater LOS B 1.0-1.3 mt2 per person LOS C 0.7-1.0 mt2 per person LOS D 0.3-0.7 mt2 per person LOS E 0.2-0.3 mt2 per person LOS F 0.2 mt2 per person or less
  38. 38. Ports-of-call evolution
  39. 39. How has other regions re-invented themselves?• Different developments• Evolving ideas• From a simple pier to………………
  40. 40. St Thomas
  41. 41. St Thomas
  42. 42. Ensenada
  43. 43. Ensenada Cruise Port Village
  44. 44. Ensenada Cruise Port Village
  45. 45. Punta Langosta, Cozumel, Mexico
  46. 46. Puerta Maya, Cozumel, Mexico
  47. 47. St. Maarten Cruise Port
  48. 48. Disney’s Castaway Cay
  49. 49. Costa Maya, Mahaual, Mexico
  50. 50. Costa Maya
  51. 51. Grand Turk Cruise center
  52. 52. GTCC
  53. 53. Roatan, Royal Caribbean
  54. 54. Mahogany Bay, Roatan Carnival
  55. 55. Falmouth, Jamaica
  56. 56. Falmouth
  57. 57. 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 30.00% Costa Rica Cartagena Guatemala Belize Dominica Honduras St Lucia Acapulco Jamaica Cayman Islands Nicaragua StKitts and Nevis Barbados Grenada Curacao Ensenada Aruba Trindiad and Tobago US Virgin Islands Cozumel Huatulco Percent of passengers taking toursSt Vincent / Grenadines Dominican Republic Antigua / Barbuda Cabo San Lucas St Maarten Bahamas Puerto Rico Turks and Caicos
  58. 58. $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $180.00 $200.00 $160.00 $0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 US Virgin Islands St Maarten Cozumel Puerto Rico St Kitts and Nevis Cartagena Jamaica Cayman Islands Belize Acapulco Aruba Bahamas Curacao Cabo San Lucas Antigua / Barbuda Honduras Barbados St Lucia Costa Rica Total expenditure per passenger Turks and Caicos Guatemala Ensenada Huatulco Grenada Trinidad and Tobago Dominica Dominican Republic NicaraguaSt Vincent / Grenadines
  59. 59. Mega-trends
  60. 60. Keys• Think strategically • Community issues • Port’s mission • Short – term solutions without a strategic plan will be short lived and more expensive• Think financially • How to finance the project • Stay competitive with the industry • Not considering pricing in design will create problems• Think functionally • Listen to your users and stakeholders• Think globally – • Comparing yourself against your neighbor – this is a global business• Focus on all parts of the business • Operations • Third party costs to the lines
  61. 61. Mega-trends• Plan for the long-term• Execute for the mid-term• Plan for the large ships• Improve the destination• Create performance standards• Improve the passenger experience• New creative offerings
  62. 62. MEGA-TRENDSINFRASTRUCTUREJune 2011 Luis Ajamil Bermello, Ajamil & Partners

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