Kirk Skaugen VP & GM of the Intel Data Center Group discusses Intel's vision for computing in 2015, mobile technologies, and Intel & HPs combined commitment to developing leading mission critical solutions.
We are changing Intel once again. We are transforming ourselves so we can have an even more profound impact on the world, and to lead where computing is going. This is the next step in our journey to go beyond being a company that makes the world’s best chips, to one that also delivers wonderful experiences for people. We are now becoming a computing solutions company.
We will tightly integrate hardware, software and services into compelling experiences in pursuit of our vision: this decade we will create and extend computing technology to connect and enrich the lives of every person on earth. We will build these experiences by innovating around three pillars of computing: energy efficient performance, security, and connectivity.
What does this mean for in terms of growth over the next 5 years?
I think that represents what technology will be in the future. More people accessing the internet, with more devices, to more visual and interactive content.
In the next five years, we will add a billion more people to the internet (total of 2.5B). We estimate 15 billion connected devices and visual data growth over 10 times in size increasing the data footprint across the internet to >1000Exabytes!
This will create exciting new experiences. What those new experiences will mean for you as a consumer and employee is that everything you want your technology to do “just works.” The impact for leaders of the IT business and developers of those new services will be opportunities to deliver business capabilities around those “just works” experiences for users and customers.
But that “Just works” experience with data and services will pose some daunting infrastructure challenges in terms of efficiency, security and resource capability that need to be addressed.
Our data footprint on the internet is growing with every digital action we take online. Knowing the size of the internet’s data footprint is impossible. The only good proxy is to look at how much traffic that footprint generates.
The growth is staggering.
Since the invention of the Internet through 2009, the data footprints that crossed the Internet totaled 150 Exabytes. Almost half that number came after the year 2000, as the ‘net became about multi-media.
This year, our data footprints that cross the ‘net will grow over twice in size, adding 175 Exabytes; takes the total amount of traffic crossing the Internet to over 325 Exabytes.
It begs the question: “What’s behind this? “
Intel has spent decades working to make IT infrastructure not only higher performing, but also more efficient and cost effective. If you look back at the Intel 4004 introduced in 1971 and compare it to the 32nm Westmere processor you will see that chip speed has gone up by 5000x and transistors have become 100,000x cheaper (adjusting for inflation) – source Intel TMG, Sept 2010. There has also been a transition from expensive mainframe computing to a client and server model and then web-based computing model – making computing much more accessible, cost effective, and connected globally delivering significant advancements in the way businesses and consumers can take advantage of computing capabilities.
In the past 5 years alone we’ve seen significant advances not only in performance and cost but also in energy efficiency of computing platforms. performance/watt has increased roughly 20x with today’s westmere, Xeon 5600 processors compared to single core processors in 2004/2005 Platform idle power has been cut in half when you compare the single core Nocona 3.6GHz (225W average platform idle) vs Intel® Xeon® X5680/WSM 3.3GHz 130W Turbo Off (114W average platform idle power) And we’ve enabled a 15:1 consolidation ration where one rack of Intel Xeon 5600 servers can replace up to 15 racks of single core Xeon servers at a 95% at the same performance level with a 95% annual energy reduction with as little as 5 month payback.
This has lead to dramatic improvements in performance efficiency and cost reduction, but we need to continue to do more to address growth in users, devices, and data.
Along with space, power and cost constraints, IT face challenges around security, manageability, flexibility and choice exacerbate in cloud scale deployments.
In a recent IDC survey, Security remains a top concern for IT in the cloud. Data not only moves from server to server but it is moved to external data centers where service providers often don’t provide any guarantees or restitution for lost or compromised data. Today’s data centers are estimated to consume 1-2% of the world’s energy. If storage, network and compute grow at the hockey stick rates we discussed earlier in this presentation, then we’ll rapidly consume energy, deplete natural resources and spend a lot of unneeded money. By increasing the efficiency of our products, we can help the industry avoid the build out of 45 new coal plants, thus saving enough power to support 30 million homes. Vendor lock is also reported as a major concern among enterprise and service provider end users building cloud and next generation data center infrastructure. Best of breed technologies are required, but IT managers also want flexibility and choice. They want to purchase infrastructure that doesn’t lock them into one vendor or one solution for multiple generations. They want the ability to choose the best architecture available at the time and integrate with existing infrastructure. And last, how do we manage in this virtualized, mega scale infrastructure. We increased server utilization through virtualization but have driven network bandwidth through the roof in complexity creating the next bottleneck in the system. IDC estimates that it costs roughly as much to manage a virtual server as a physical one. Gartner estimates that the cost to manage a server will exceed the cost to buy one. Infrastructure must be dramatically simplified to handle the rapid rate of growth and complexity challenging IT. We need fewer configurations, fewer ports, fewer cables, fewer servers, few points of management and seamless integration of vendors to enable a more simplified IT environment. If we can’t accomplish this, Bain estimates that IT will spend $2T on deployment and operations without a smarter infrastructure.
The industry must come together to not only deliver new capabilities for the cloud, but build it on a foundation that delivers high levels of security, efficiency, simplification and interoperability. That will enable the true potential of the cloud – cloud 2015.
Sources: IDC Market Analysis, January 2010 Power savings calculated based on projected performance improvements from Intel roadmap while keeping power / system flat. Moore’s Law drives ~2x perf / 18 months. At 5 years, that equals 10X. We assume that compared to 2010, we’re saving 9X (i.e, the 10x less the 1X for what you’ll need). It assumes we keep power per system constant at 200W. We assume we’ll need 16M servers in 2015 (based on market model) – that means we save 16M x 9X x 200W (average system power) x 1.6 PUE = ~45GW. The estimated power/coal plant is 1Gw 45GW = ~ 45 coal plants needed which equates to approximately 30 million homes according to the EPA website: http://www.epa.gov/RDEE/energy-resources/refs.html#coalplant The 451 group August 2010 Summary of spending between 2010 and 2014. Intel commission analysis with Bain Consulting based on: IDC “Server Workloads Forecast” 2009, AMI US SB/MB Overview and Market Opportunity Assessment 2006 Gartner “WW IT Services Forecast” 2009; Cowen & Co “VMware” (July 2009); IDC 2009 “Optimizing Infrastructure and Service Management in Tough Economic Times”, analyst reports, IDC storage & networking reports, Gartner 2009 WW IT Services Forecast, BLS, Computer Economics, Principled Technology, expert interviews, Bain analysis
When the Pentium Pro processor was introduced back in 1995, we shipped fewer than a million servers based on Intel processors, and less than 10% of the revenue spent on all server hardware was based on Intel architecture and 90% was based on these other proprietary architectures. And what you’ve seen since is a dramatic growth in the total volume of servers, with a significant portion of that driven by Intel based processors. And of course today the industry ships per IDC a little over 8 million servers a year, with 8 out of 10 of those servers based on Intel.
Little did we know back in 1995 that we were one of key ingredients coming together to enable the transformation of the internet and the growth of the worldwide web. The ability to have a standard high volume server so that the internet users could scale in a cost effective manner, combined with the standards of the time: HTML, HTTP. All of that combined with the software, such as Apache web servers and Netscape browsers. All of these factors converged to create the internet phenomena and drive that growth. Of course we didn’t forecast that with the Pentium Pro processor, but we’re very proud to have been a part of it.
Kirk speaking points: Lead with Cloud definition
What can we/the industry achieve by making clouds more simple, efficiency, secure and open? Save 45 GW (1 billion watts) power/ by driving Intel power efficiency trend across the cloud for next 5 years Cut $25B in annual “excess” spending by 2015 making deployment of clouds simpler Avoid >$100B in lost services revenue by making clouds more secure and easier to adopt/deploy
Saves 45 GW power which equals 45 coal plants avoided Power savings calculated based on projected performance improvements from Intel roadmap while keeping power / system flat. Moore’s Law drives ~2x perf / 18 months. At 5 years, that equals 10X. We assume that compared to 2010, we’re saving 9X (i.e, the 10x less the 1X for what you’ll need). It assumes we keep power per system constant at 200W. We assume we’ll need 16M servers in 2015 (based on market model) – that means we save 16M x 9X x 200W (average system power) x 1.6 PUE = ~45GW. The estimated power/coal plant is 1Gw 45GW = ~ 45 coal plants needed which equates to approximately 30 million homes according to the EPA website: http://www.epa.gov/RDEE/energy-resources/refs.html#coalplant
Cut $25B in annual “excess” by 2015 making deployment of clouds simpler Projects out $142B in annual Bain spending estimates on infrastructure and assumes we can reduce by 15% by 2015. Extrapolating on 2013 yearly estimate of $142B, assumes 15% reduction. 2013: $142B spend in infrastructure / support that doesn’t add value but is “overhead” of deployment (source: Bain)
Open: Industry could miss out on $95B of cloud services revenue due to customers on sidelines for cloud due to concerns over lock-in now thru 2015 Takes IDCs services forecast of $40B and calculates over the ’10-’15 horizon and cuts growth rate by half – Intel projection. $40B IDC projects by 2014 (grossed up to 2015) from July, ‘10 report.
Intel believes the cloud of 2015 will look dramatically different from today’s computing infrastructure. The Cloud will be
Automated: Dynamically allocate resources to agreed upon services levels and automatically optimize for maximum resource utilization and power efficiency. This includes automation of provisioning, resource monitoring, reporting of consumption for bill back and workload balancing.
Federated: data and services will seamlessly and securely scale beyond borders to span public and private clouds when desired. Federation allows you to move your workload from one service provider to another, burst between your internal private cloud and public cloud providers if additional capacity is needed and more easily share information across vendors, partners or clients.
Client aware: the data center will provide secure access and optimal experience across a range of devices to take advantage of the capabilities of the device in hand. Today many internet services are “dumbed down” to the lowest common denominator – even if the user is accessing the service via a powerful desk top computer. Or the opposite can be true where services are difficult to read/use if you access them from a device that isn’t a personal computer (e.g. have you ever tried to track a flight on your blackberry?). In a client aware environment, the capabilities of both the server and the client will be exposed to the cloud service. The cloud service will then be able to adapt based upon that information and deliver optimal service based on the device at hand – fully utilizing the power of the client/server when available.
Why would a company care about client capabilities? A: The bottom line is money and flexibility. Taking advantage of client based performance means that users may be less likely to experience performance degradation when transitioning to a cloud. In cases where servers supporting a particular application are heavily subscribed, companies can take advantage of client side processing to improve resource utilization. There can also be network related benefits. Where the proliferation of mobile devices and growth of rich content are impacting wireless network capacity, the ability to run applications on the end point can help reduce network traffic, alleviate performance impacting bottle necks. Finally, robust clients give companies the flexibility to run both conventional and cloud based applications and enable users to remain productive whether working in an online or offline mode.
Some of these attribute exist today, but many are not fully developed, complete software capabilities do not exist and standards are missing that will enable businesses to achieve the full realization and potential of the cloud
For 22nm - more integration, better transistors. Revolutionary process technology. This advancement extends Intel’s lead over competitors. It’s one of the biggest breakthrough in microprocessor design in decades.
22nm 3-D transistors deliver unprecedented performance improvement and power reduction 2x transistor density drives low power performance and greater integration Enhanced media and graphics performance with processor graphics Efficient performance for thin and light form factors Lower voltage operation with lower leakage Integrated hardware + software security Superior power draw
Tick-tock model provides IT predictability for when new platforms will be brought to market.
Xeon is on an annual beat rate alternating between a new manufacturing process and a new micro architectural design.
For higher end mission critical class systems, where stability is valued, we have a slower beat rate with our Itanium family of products. Here we will bring out a new microarchitecture design, typically on a more mature manufacturing process.
Cloud 2015: Connecting the Next Billion - Intel Keynote @ HP Discover 2011
Corporate Vice President
General Manager, Data Center Group
This decade we will create and extend computing technology to
connect and enrich the lives of every person on earth.
1. IDC “Server Workloads Forecast” 2009. 2.IDC “The Internet Reaches Late Adolescence” Dec 2009, extrapolation by Intel for 2015 2.ECG “Worldwide Device Estimates Year 2020 - Intel One Smart Network
Work” forecast 3. Source: http://www.cisco.com/assets/cdc_content_elements/networking_solutions/service_provider/visual_networking_ip_traffic_chart.html extrapolated to 2015
More Users More Devices More Data
>1 Billion More
In 2010 Alone
481360_ns827_Networking_Solutions_White_Paper.html extrapolated to 2015
Total Data Crossing the Internet
We Have Made Tremendous Progress…
In The Last 5 Years Alone:
Half The Platform Idle Power
Is the Infrastructure Ready?
5000x faster & 100,000x cheaper from Intel’s 4004 introduced in 1971 compared to the 32nm Westmere where chip speed has gone up by 5000x and transistors have become 100,000x cheaper adjusted for inflation (Intel TMG Sept 2010). See back up foils for performance and power comparison .
Performance tests and ratings are measured using specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate performance of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual
performance. Buyers should consult other sources of information to evaluate the performance of systems or components they are considering purchasing. For more information on performance tests and on the performance of Intel products, visit Intel Performance Benchmark Lmitations
Infrastructure Must Evolve to Address IT Challenges
But Not Enough …
1. IDC Market Analysis, January 2010.
2. Source information in backup
* Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.
Today’s Technology Would Require
Building 45 New Coal Power Plants to
Support 2015 IT Infrastructure2
70% of Respondents Saying Security is Top
Concern In Moving to Public Cloud1
IT will spend ~$2T on deployment and
operations thru 2015 unless smarter
infrastructure radically simplifies
management of virtualized environments.
“We have seen lock-in return as a top concern …
routinely seeking alternatives to proprietary
virtualization and cloud computing technology “
Intel and HP Have Helped Transform Industries
Annual Server Processor Shipments Supercomputing in 1997Supercomputing in 2010
1995 20002000 2005 2010 20151995 2000 2005 20101995
Cloud Computing Can Once Again Transform the
Economics of Computing & Services
Save 45 Giga Watts in 2015
Accelerate $100B of Industry
Services Through 2015
Save $25B of
IT Spend in 2015
and internal analysis
Save $25B of IT spend: Bain
Acelerate $100B of industry services through 2015: IDC and internal analysis
Cloud 2015 Vision
IT can focus more
on innovation and
Share data securely
across public and
Optimizing services based
on device capability
Desktops Laptops EmbeddedSmartphonesNetbooks Personal Devices Smart TVs
Energy-Efficient Performance Built on Moore’s Law
Higher Transistor Performance (Switching Speed)
22 nm Benefits Smallest Handhelds to Powerful Cloud-based Servers
The Attributes of a Tablet, the Performance of a PC.
Long Battery Life
Smart Visual Experience
New Mission Critical Economics
Powering the Next Generation of Mission Critical Computing
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: IDC World Wide Server Tracker Q4’10
RISC to IA Migration Progress Report
2% of worlds’ server units still account for $15B of Spend!
Source: IDC World Wide Server Tracker Q4’10
Intel Itanium POWER