How to Use Competitor Response Modeling to Forecast Competitor Actions Accurately

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How to Use Competitor Response Modeling to Forecast Competitor Actions Accurately

  1. 1. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by How to Use Competitor Response Modeling to Accurately Forecast Potential Competitor Actions A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// 18 September 2013 ~ featuring ~ Fred Wergeles Dr. Craig Fleisher
  2. 2. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by Fred Wergeles Fred Wergeles is the founder and Principal of Fred Wergeles & Associates LLC, a consulting practice that specializes in Strategic Planning and Competitive Intelligence process improvement. He has over 25 years of experience managing intelligence collection and analysis in support of strategic decision making in both the federal government and a Fortune 100 corporation. He has advised companies in a diverse array of industries, including utilities, telecommunications, insurance and financial services, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, consumer products, and high tech start-ups. Fred is an adjunct professor at the University of Hartford and the President of a non-profit organization providing business analysis to entrepreneurial start-ups. He is the Chair of the Connecticut SCIP chapter and received the SCIP Fellows Award in 2012. Email: fred@intelstrategy.com The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
  3. 3. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Questions, Commentary & Content
  4. 4. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by Agenda ► What is the Competitor Response Model? ► How can it help? ► Brief review of the analytical process ► How to use the results ► Summary, Q&A and Discussion
  5. 5. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by What Does the Future Hold? Good, Bad or Ugly -- Is It Impossible to Predict What's Ahead for the U.S. Economy? Which Countries Are Economic Winners and Losers? Nanotechnology's Obstacles Are Tremendous Consumers Are Paralyzed Over Tax Doubt Consumers Remain Baffled By Health Law, Poll Shows Uncertainty Is Certain Next Year Business Strategy in an Uncertain Economy: Grow for Today, or Grow for Tomorrow? Companies Fret Over Uncertain Outlook Direction of Dollar Is Unclear Lack of Grand Bargain Complicates Obama's Priorities
  6. 6. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by “What’s going to happen next?” "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." John Kenneth Galbraith
  7. 7. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by What is a Competitor Response Model? ► Analytic tool to forecast potential competitor actions ► Anticipate potential market reactions ► Identify key indicators of competitor activity ► Helps companies plan product/marketing strategies and counterstrategies
  8. 8. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by “Any war plan that depends on the cooperation of the enemy, is likely to fail.” ► How will our competitors react to our new product launch? • How will our competitors position their products prior to our launch ? • How will our competitors try to limit the success of our new product ?
  9. 9. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by The Competitor Response Modeling Process Identify Competitors Goals Objectives Develop Hypotheses Scenarios “What-ifs” Analyze Capabilities Can They Achieve their Objectives ? Develop Possible Response Set Prepare Contingency Strategies Identify Key Indicators
  10. 10. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by Assembling the Parts of the Puzzle
  11. 11. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by Case Study: Quick Serve Restaurants ► Major fast food brands are battling for their share of the highly contested breakfast market: SBUX, McD, DD, Subway ► Wendy’s, Burger King and Taco Bell are the new upstarts in the breakfast category ► 64% of Americans visited a quick-service restaurant once for breakfast in 2011 ► Over the years, each company has introduced new items and strengthened existing items in order to maintain market share and profits ► More recently, each company has dabbled in using social media to promote its breakfast offerings
  12. 12. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by Case Details – “A New Wrinkle” ► Burger King is planning to launch new premium coffee drinks and a fortified “all-in-one” nutritional breakfast meal – the “Mega-Croissanwich” ► BK intends to launch a splashy multi-media marketing blitz including social media, TV, radio, and newspaper spots. The pre-launch buzz suggests this new entry may be a game changer, striking a chord with the health-conscious, on-the-go, all-important 18-40 demographic.
  13. 13. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #1: Identify Competitors & Other Players ► Traditional ► Non-Traditional ► Other Stakeholders (Influencers)
  14. 14. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #1: Define Market Objectives ► Market Share vs. Profit Margins ► Increase Revenues, Cash Flow ► New Customer Segments ► Image ► Innovation Leader ► Differentiation through product performance ► Low Cost provider ► Others ► Become #1 or #2 in every category ► Advocacy, Policy leader
  15. 15. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #2: Generate Hypotheses - Scenarios ► “Crystal Ball” ► Past Analogies ► Successes ► Failures ► But, avoid mirror imaging ► Leadership Analysis Hypotheses: Given their market objectives, what might the competitors do? Scenarios: How, When, Where could they do it? • Brainstorming with a creative team is key • Explore all options • There are no incorrect “answers”
  16. 16. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #3: Competitor Capabilities ► Financial Strength ► Manufacturing Capacity ► Distribution Capabilities ► Technological Resources ► Marketing & Sales Capabilities ► Management Team Experience ► Innovation and Market Leadership ► Alliances
  17. 17. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #4: “Triage”: Prioritizing the Responses ► Identify resources likely to be applied to competitive responses ► Identify special circumstances, conditions ► Eliminate hypothetical responses that are not viable ► Rank potential responses ► Likelihood ► Impact ► Timing
  18. 18. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #4: Prioritize Potential Responses Competitor or Stakeholder Product Objective Potential Response(s) Likelihood Impact Timing Rank Traditional: McDondalds Egg McMuffin Biscuit sandwiches McGriddles maintain or expand share of customers' breakfast QSR spending Additional advertising Additional promos for curr. menu "Me Too" nutritional sandwich Abandon market – introduce truly health conscious breakfasts High High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate High High Near-term Near-term Mid-term Near-term Non-traditional: Local Sit-down Restaurant Traditional breakfast menu Add health conscious options Offer more comfortable (but more expensive) experience Additional (health conscious) advertising in local papers Additional promos for current & new menu offerings Moderate Moderate Low-moderate Low-moderate Near-term Near-term Stakeholder: Center for Science in the Public Interest Health Newsletter Policy Advocacy "organized voice of the American public on nutrition, food safety, health and other issues" Campaign against the “Mega- Croissanwich” "Wall of Shame" Low-to- Moderate Low-Moderate Near-term
  19. 19. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #4: Prioritize Potential Responses Competitor or Stakeholder Product Objective Potential Response(s) Likelihood Impact Timing Rank McDondalds Egg McMuffin Biscuit sandwiches McGriddles maintain or expand share of customers' breakfast QSR spending Additional advertising Additional promos for curr. menu "Me Too" nutritional sandwich Abandon market – introduce truly health conscious breakfasts High High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate High High Near-term Near-term Mid-term Near-term Local Sit-down Restaurant Traditional breakfast menu Add health conscious options Offer more comfortable (but more expensive) experience Additional (health conscious) advertising in local papers Additional promos for current & new menu offerings Moderate Moderate Low-moderate Low-moderate Near-term Near-term Center for Science in the Public Interest Health Newsletter Policy Advocacy "organized voice of the American public on nutrition, food safety, health and other issues" Campaign against the “Mega- Croissanwich” "Wall of Shame" Low-to- Moderate Low-Moderate Near-term
  20. 20. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #5: Develop Intelligence Indicators ► How will scenarios play out? ► Under what circumstances? ► Identify specific “precursor” events ► Early Warning Indicators ► Develop Monitoring System ► Develop Alert Process
  21. 21. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by CRM Step #6: Develop Counterstrategies ► Plans in place to react to Intelligence Indicators ► Prepare responses ► Offensive ► Defensive ► “War Gaming”
  22. 22. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by Fred Wergeles Thank you! Now how about a little Q&A? Email: fred@intelstrategy.com The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!

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