The Future of Food<br />Scenarios and the Effects on Natural Resource Use in Agriculture<br />
Introduction<br />
Scope<br />What are the global and regional consequences, with respect to naturalresource use in agriculture, for four foo...
Scope<br />What are the global and regionalconsequences, with respect to resource use in agriculture, for four food scenar...
Scope<br />Commodity groups<br />Cereals<br />Fruit<br />Roots andtubers<br />Pulses<br />Oil crops<br />Sugar crops<br />...
Scenario Methodology<br />Whatif…?<br />NotThe Truth or The Future<br />Variety<br />Consistency<br />Methodology<br />
Population<br />Economic Development<br />Policy<br />Technological Development<br />Diet<br />DrivingForces<br />Methodol...
Meat Consumption & Economic Development<br />77 kg<br />17 kg<br />2200 US$<br />9700 US$<br />Keyzer, 2005<br />Methodolo...
Food System Model<br />Virtual Resource Content<br />Methodology<br />
Virtual Resource Content<br />Input requirements<br />Land: ton/ha (yield)<br />Water: m3/ton <br />Fertilizer: kg/ton (N,...
Scenario Study<br />economy<br />2900 kcal<br />2900 kcal<br />regionalization<br />globalization<br />2800 kcal<br />2800...
Whatif..<br />…there is a global shift to a Western diet?<br />…regions have tobeself-sufficient?<br />…we allbecomevegeta...
Apparent Consumption and Intake<br />2005 apparent consumption<br />2005 intake<br />Results<br />
Production (ton/year)<br />Results<br />
Land Use (ha/year)<br />VS+S+MS<br />VS+S<br />Results<br />
Land Use<br />Results<br />
Water Use<br />Critical water stress<br />3<br />Moderate water stress<br />Results<br />
Water Use in A2 – Full World   <br />3<br />OECD90<br />REF<br />ALM<br />ASIA<br />Results<br />
Fertilizer Use – N <br />Years of Potassium A1: 2	A2: 66<br />B1: 100	B2: 135<br />Years of Phosporous<br />A1: 55	A2: 121...
Scenario Conclusions<br />A1 – Affluent World<br />LANDWATER		FERTILIZER<br />A2 – Full World<br />LANDWATER		FERTILIZER <...
Conclusions<br />Strong negativecorrelation between land and fertilizer use<br />Water use problematic<br />Not enough res...
Recommendations<br />Virtual Fertilizer Content & Organic Agriculture<br />Trade & Water Use<br />Animal product consumpti...
Discussion<br />Wouldyou change yourdiet?<br />Discussion<br />
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The Future of Food - scenarios and the effects on natural resource use in agriculture

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One of the most important sustainability questions we face today relates to food. Everyone needs it, but we still face undernutrition in large parts of the world, while in other regions overnutrition is a growing problem.

Can we feed our growing world population? Do we have the natural resources to supply the global population with their demand in 2050?

My research shows that we cannot feed the global population a Western diet; a diet high in meat and of which a lot is wasted.

Would you change your diet?
Ingrid Odegard

Published in: Technology, Business
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The Future of Food - scenarios and the effects on natural resource use in agriculture

  1. 1. The Future of Food<br />Scenarios and the Effects on Natural Resource Use in Agriculture<br />
  2. 2. Introduction<br />
  3. 3. Scope<br />What are the global and regional consequences, with respect to naturalresource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050?<br />Introduction<br />
  4. 4. Scope<br />What are the global and regionalconsequences, with respect to resource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050?<br />OECD90<br />REF<br />ASIA<br />ALM<br />Introduction<br />
  5. 5. Scope<br />Commodity groups<br />Cereals<br />Fruit<br />Roots andtubers<br />Pulses<br />Oil crops<br />Sugar crops<br />Vegetables<br />Meat<br />Beef<br />Pork<br />Poultry<br />Eggs<br />Milk<br />Includes feed<br />93% of global kcal<br />Introduction<br />
  6. 6. Scenario Methodology<br />Whatif…?<br />NotThe Truth or The Future<br />Variety<br />Consistency<br />Methodology<br />
  7. 7. Population<br />Economic Development<br />Policy<br />Technological Development<br />Diet<br />DrivingForces<br />Methodology<br />
  8. 8. Meat Consumption & Economic Development<br />77 kg<br />17 kg<br />2200 US$<br />9700 US$<br />Keyzer, 2005<br />Methodology<br />
  9. 9. Food System Model<br />Virtual Resource Content<br />Methodology<br />
  10. 10. Virtual Resource Content<br />Input requirements<br />Land: ton/ha (yield)<br />Water: m3/ton <br />Fertilizer: kg/ton (N, P2O5, K2O)<br />Specifiedfor:<br />Commodity groups<br />Regions<br />Methodology<br />
  11. 11. Scenario Study<br />economy<br />2900 kcal<br />2900 kcal<br />regionalization<br />globalization<br />2800 kcal<br />2800 kcal<br />environment<br />Methodology<br />
  12. 12. Whatif..<br />…there is a global shift to a Western diet?<br />…regions have tobeself-sufficient?<br />…we allbecomevegetarian?<br />…we shift to low-input management?<br />Methodology<br />
  13. 13. Apparent Consumption and Intake<br />2005 apparent consumption<br />2005 intake<br />Results<br />
  14. 14. Production (ton/year)<br />Results<br />
  15. 15. Land Use (ha/year)<br />VS+S+MS<br />VS+S<br />Results<br />
  16. 16. Land Use<br />Results<br />
  17. 17. Water Use<br />Critical water stress<br />3<br />Moderate water stress<br />Results<br />
  18. 18. Water Use in A2 – Full World <br />3<br />OECD90<br />REF<br />ALM<br />ASIA<br />Results<br />
  19. 19. Fertilizer Use – N <br />Years of Potassium A1: 2 A2: 66<br />B1: 100 B2: 135<br />Years of Phosporous<br />A1: 55 A2: 121<br />B1: 254 B2: 211<br />Results<br />
  20. 20. Scenario Conclusions<br />A1 – Affluent World<br />LANDWATER FERTILIZER<br />A2 – Full World<br />LANDWATER FERTILIZER <br />B1 – VegetarianWorld<br />LAND WATER FERTILIZER <br />B2 – Low-Input World<br />LANDWATER FERTILIZER<br />Conclusions<br />
  21. 21. Conclusions<br />Strong negativecorrelation between land and fertilizer use<br />Water use problematic<br />Not enough resources to feed the global population a Western diet<br />Conclusions<br />
  22. 22. Recommendations<br />Virtual Fertilizer Content & Organic Agriculture<br />Trade & Water Use<br />Animal product consumption & culture and religion<br />Conclusions<br />
  23. 23. Discussion<br />Wouldyou change yourdiet?<br />Discussion<br />

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