The Andean tropical mountains    and the Climate Change    Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 16 June 2012
Regional context
Climate change contextClimate in the Andes• Complex climate system with extreme natural gradients in temperature    and pr...
Impacts of climate change•   Biomes – vertical shifts (higher biomes only loose, lower ones loose and    gain)            ...
Impacts of climate change• Water availability (how much and when)     Local variation – changes in water availability due...
Other drivers of change• Often difficult to  distinguish between  effects of different  drivers (e.g. changes  in land use...
Other drivers of change in the Andes Population growth    Especially in urban areas                          Andean coun...
Other drivers of change in the Andes Change in land cover and use   ▪ Agricultural expansion (e.g.                       ...
Other drivers of change in the Andes Change in land cover  and use Mining (expansion, continued  reliance of economic sy...
Key policy actions• Protect mountain ecosystems to safeguard water supplies  e.g. Paramos, puna, legal protection, mining ...
Key policy actions• Effective communication mechanisms within government  i.e. between government departments (with overla...
Thank you          Ccondesan@condesan.org     rhttp://www.condesan.org   e                          a                     ...
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The Andean tropical mountains

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Presentation made by Christian Devenish, CONDESAN

--7 Countries, Common language (but many indigenous languages), democracies (at least 20 years in all countries). Armed conflict (internal - Peru, Colombia. War Ecuador-Peru)
--Andes mountains occupy 33% of total country areas, but hold 45% of total country populations.
Northern Andes - very populated. Big cities, lots of people. 8 Cities > 1,000,000 inhabitants . Great variety and complexity (diversity, society, etc, languages, etc etc)
Variation between % of country occupied by mountains, and % of country population in mountains.
e.g. in Colombia, most people live in the mountains, but mountains only occupy 25% of country. Ecuador 50% - 50%, AR very small % live in mountains, but mountains occupy >20%.
--Both some of the poorest and wealthiest regions in the Andes, depending on country.

-- Climate change impacts on individual species. Change in range size for birds (non-shaded bars) and vascular plants (shaded bars) for A. Unlimited dispersal and B. No dispersal, for the SRES-A2 emission scenario and both periods (2020s and 2050s) (outliers have been removed from the plot for easier visualization) - 11,012 species (1,555 birds and 9,457 plants)
-- Impacts of climate change

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  • --7 Countries, Common language (but many indigenous languages), democracies (at least 20 years in all countries). Armed conflict (internal - Peru, Colombia. War Ecuador-Peru) --Andes mountains occupy 33% of total country areas, but hold 45% of total country populations. Northern Andes - very populated. Big cities, lots of people. 8 Cities > 1,000,000 inhabitants . Great variety and complexity (diversity, society, etc, languages, etc etc) Variation between % of country occupied by mountains, and % of country population in mountains. e.g. in Colombia, most people live in the mountains, but mountains only occupy 25% of country. Ecuador 50% - 50%, AR very small % live in mountains, but mountains occupy >20%. --Both some of the poorest and wealthiest regions in the Andes, depending on country.   Importance for economies, e.g. mining, cities - business centres, agricultural land, mineral resources, water resources, e.g. hydroelectricity
  • las proyecciones en el cambio de temperatura van de 1.5 a 4.5°C, dependiendo del período y escenario de emisión PRECIS (Regional Climate Model – RCM) with 10 (A1B) and 8 (A2) GCMs. Average increase in rainfall, but little agreement between models on direction.
  • -- Climate change impacts on individual species. Change in range size for birds (non-shaded bars) and vascular plants (shaded bars) for A. Unlimited dispersal and B. No dispersal, for the SRES-A2 emission scenario and both periods (2020s and 2050s) (outliers have been removed from the plot for easier visualization) - 11,012 species (1,555 birds and 9,457 plants) -- Cambio promedio en las áreas de los biomas andinos para cada escenario (A1B y A2) y para cada periodo (2020 y 2050) con respecto al año base 2000. Las barras muestran los valores promedios de todos los modelos, mientras que las líneas muestran el intermedio del valor máximo y mínimo de todos los modelos. GCr = Glaciares y áres crioturbadas, Par = Páramo, PnH = Puna húmeda, PnX = Puna xerofítica, BMs = Bosque montano siempreverde, BMsd = Bosque montano semi-deciduo, Arb = Arbustales montanos semideciduos y deciduos, Pre = Prepuna xerofítica
  • Remember that figure below is for averaged models (from RCM) but there is wide disagreement between models wrt direction of change of precipitation. Most agreement on north SA coast.
  • Often poorest communities who depend more directly on ecosystem services for their livelihoods are the most affected
  • The Andean tropical mountains

    1. 1. The Andean tropical mountains and the Climate Change Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 16 June 2012
    2. 2. Regional context
    3. 3. Climate change contextClimate in the Andes• Complex climate system with extreme natural gradients in temperature and precipitation• Dominated by climate systems over Pacific Ocean, Amazon and Caribbean• Altitudinal gradients (temperature)• N-S and E-W gradients (precipitation)• Seasonality more pronounced in south• Lack of information on current climate conditionsFuture predictions• Overall, temperature increase rainfall, seasonality uncertain Regions where >80% of models coincide in direction of change of precipitation Buytaert & Julián Ramírez-Villegas in press
    4. 4. Impacts of climate change• Biomes – vertical shifts (higher biomes only loose, lower ones loose and gain) Región A2.1039 Pérdida Estable 300 Ganancia 200 Area Km ) 2 ( 100 0 Tovar et al. in press PNAS GCr Par PnH PnX BMs BMsd Arb PrP
    5. 5. Impacts of climate change• Water availability (how much and when)  Local variation – changes in water availability due to changes in rainfall seasonality and regulatory capacity of ecosystems and glaciers  Influence of glaciers: - In the north, paramos most important factor for water regulation throughout year - Glaciers (and puna) more important in the Central Andes for maintaining water production during the dry seasons, e.g. maintaining grazing systems  Climate change effects exacerbated (or surpassed?) by land use change, poor governance, inadequate policies, insufficient infrastructure, inefficient use and recycling of water Relative change (%) in water availability for combined impacts (temp + rainfall) under climate change (Buytaert et al 2010)
    6. 6. Other drivers of change• Often difficult to distinguish between effects of different drivers (e.g. changes in land use and climate change in terms of water regulation)  Combined effects  Integral, flexible policies Photo: J. Voss
    7. 7. Other drivers of change in the Andes Population growth  Especially in urban areas Andean countries  % in urban areas in Andean urban area pop. by altitude countries  2010: 69% to 91% >= 3500  1990: 55% to 87% 2500 - 3499 ▪ Mountain cities - higher 1500 - 2499 population density 500 - 1499 ▪ Lowland population (e.g. Lima) 0 - 499 on Pacific coast depend on Andes for water 0.0E+00 2.0E+07 4.0E+07 6.0E+07 8.0E+07 ▪ Concentration of demand for CIESIN, 2011 water in high Andean cities (e.g. Bogota, Quito, La Paz)
    8. 8. Other drivers of change in the Andes Change in land cover and use ▪ Agricultural expansion (e.g. 350000000 18 influenced by bilateral trade 16 agreements) 300000000 Production (tonnes) / Area harvested (ha) 14 ▪ Upward shift in agriculture 250000000 (due to more suitable areas at 12 higher altitudes) 200000000 10 Production Area harvested ▪ Increase in agricultural area 150000000 8 Fertilizer use Agro-chemical and harvest (agro-chemicals, 6 use 100000000 lowland especially, but water 4 from Andes) 50000000 2 ▪ Land degradation – loss of 0 0 capacity for water regulation 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
    9. 9. Other drivers of change in the Andes Change in land cover and use Mining (expansion, continued reliance of economic systems on extractive industries) Deforestation, ecosystem degradation South America: largest net loss of forest 1990-2010 (FAO 2010) Decrease from 38% to 35% of forested area lost 1990 - 2010 Cuesta et al 2009
    10. 10. Key policy actions• Protect mountain ecosystems to safeguard water supplies e.g. Paramos, puna, legal protection, mining no-go zones, basin-wide responsibility for strengthening upstream-down-stream partnerships• Climate change adaptation addressed specifically for mountains regional, national and local policies with flexible approaches (adaptive management) given uncertainty, further develop water management policies• Innovate agricultural production in mountain areas recuperate knowledge (especially of native products), work towards food security, protection of biodiversity with responsible agriculture, market access• Transform current mining methods with responsible mining codes policy formulation, push for more efficient use of mining products
    11. 11. Key policy actions• Effective communication mechanisms within government i.e. between government departments (with overlapping jurisdictions); between government levels (local and national)• Use regional cooperation mechanisms to share and replicate experiences e.g. where decentralization and increased citizens’ participation has been beneficial to sustainable mountain development• Improve coordination/communication to ensure knowledge generated is applied to SMD e.g. between state universities in mountain areas, research NGOs, government bodies• Implement decision support systems at local and regional levels e.g. for water management and climate change adaptation
    12. 12. Thank you Ccondesan@condesan.org rhttp://www.condesan.org e a t

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