NEW LAKES IN DE-GLACIATING HIGH-MOUNTAIN REGIONS

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NEW LAKES IN DE-GLACIATING HIGH-MOUNTAIN REGIONS

  1. 1. NEW LAKES IN DE-GLACIATING HIGH-MOUNTAIN REGIONS – A CHALLENGE FOR INTEGRATIVE RESEARCH ABOUT RISK REDUCTION AND SUSTAINABLE USE Wilfried Haeberli, Christian Huggel, Yvonne Schaub, Geography Department University of Zurich Foro Intercaional Glaciares
  2. 2. vanishing surface ice de-buttressing of lateral rock slopes oversteepened inside slope of lateral moraine disappearing support of steep glacier parts, ice avalanches from steep hanging glaciers ice avalanches and rock falls not on glacier tongue any more but directly into lake permafrost degradation slope instability Milhuacocha Cordillera Blanca Hegglin lake formation Foro Intercaional Glaciares
  3. 3. Changing high-mountain glaciers Paul Cordillera Blanca Aletsch, Alps
  4. 4. Assumption: temperature increase of 4°C by 2100, time steps of 15 years Scenario of glacier retreat and lake formation Swiss Alps (Aletsch)
  5. 5. Aletsch Swiss Alps Schaub Glaciers, new lakes, permafrost and steep slopes in the Alps Foro Intercaional Glaciares
  6. 6. Portocarrero 12.04.2010 A successfully prevented catastrophe Nevado Hualcán Cordillera Blanca Portocarrero Foro Intercaional Glaciares
  7. 7. Palcacocha, Peru Modeling the process chain and installation of an early warning system … Nevado Hualcán Cordillera Blanca Schneider Foro Intercaional Glaciares
  8. 8. Lake probably shallow Lake probably deep Lake formation uncertain Lake formation ongoing or imminent Lake formation in coming decades possible retention Hazard evolution Carhuaz
  9. 9. Terrier Terrier Künzler Hydropower and flood protection Corbassiière Swiss Alps Foro Intercaional Glaciares
  10. 10. The long-term risks of destructive flood waves from new lakes in deglaciating high-mountain regions are increasing … … and need risk reduction strategies to be developed in time because • the number of new lakes increases with continued glacier retreat • the new lakes are forming more and more closely to steep icy rock walls • the stability of these steep icy rock walls tends to decrease • the probability of large ice/rock avalanches into lakes increases • impact waves in new lakes from slope instability become more frequent • corresponding flood waves can affect valleys over long distances • the hazard zone related to rock/ice avalanches is thereby extended • areas of high vulnerability/damage potential may be affected • the probability of dangerous events and the damage potential both grow by • modelling potential new lakes and critical slope conditions • modelling potential process chains to delineate hazard zones • defining hot spots of highest vulnerability • using existing experience/practice of protection against impact waves • considering aspects of long-term low probability/high damage risks • envisaging possible synergies with hydropower, water supply, tourism

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