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Ukraine Photovoltaic Market Outlook 2013 - 2018

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Italy and Bulgaria, Ukraine represents an interesting investment opportunity amongst Central-East Europe and CIS countries with relatively good rules and feed-in tariff support scheme. Cumulative installed PV capacity in the country was only 3 MWp in 2010, but grew up to 140 MWp in 2011 and is expected to triple to 415 MWp by the end of 2012, making Ukraine one of the fastest growing photovoltaic markets in the region. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 70 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Ukrainian photovoltaic market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2011 and 2012 were challenging years for photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2013 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment with falling module prices, requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content. Highlights from this market report are:You may download photovoltaic market report presentation and order form from here:

http://ineaconsulting.eu/bg/dokumenti/analysis/solar-pv/69-ukraine

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Ukraine Photovoltaic Market Outlook 2013 - 2018

  1. 1. A OOOT HTVL C AKT IM REURI P KA E N 08 uo l k 03 o 21 ÷21Ot
  2. 2. Inea Consulting is well established renewable energyadvisory firm focused to emerging markets of EasternEurope, CIS countries and MENA countries.Through its analytical arm Inea Research, thecompany provides independent renewable sectorswatch, customized analysis, market outlooks andsector studies.What makes us different is the quality and accuracy ofinformation, which is interpreted in the best way totake your investment decisions. www.ineaconsulting.eu
  3. 3. UKRAINE PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of thecountry. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, CzechRepublic, Slovakia, Italy and Bulgaria, Ukraine represents an interesting investmentopportunity amongst Central-East Europe and CIS countries with relatively good rules andfeed-in tariff support scheme. Cumulative installed PV capacity in the country was only 3MWp in 2010, but grew up to 140 MWp in 2011 and is expected to triple to 415 MWp bythe end of 2012, making Ukraine one of the fastest growing photovoltaic markets in theregion. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, currentissues and future prospects. You will find more than 70 pages of valuable information inthis unique in-depth analysis of the Ukrainian photovoltaic market. With comprehensivemarket data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decisionmaking process. As 2011 and 2012 were challenging years for photovoltaic industry, thetime for taking right decisions during 2013 and the next few years is limited. Fast changingmarket environment with falling module prices, requires relevant and accurateinformation. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized reportcontent. Highlights from this market report are: Brief overview of the Ukrainian political and economic environment Solar resource potential in Ukraine Overview of Ukrainian photovoltaic market development 2000 ÷ 2018 Grid connected photovoltaic installations for 2011 ÷ 2013 Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2013 ÷ 2018 Current market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects Ukrainian legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects Key companies in photovoltaic sector Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives SWOT AnalysisAt next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this reportjust fill in and send us the enclosed at the last page order form. If you have any otherquestions please do not hesitate to call us on ++359 887 342 475 or write an e-mail toorders@ineaconsulting.eu 3
  4. 4. UKRAINE PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................... 4 FOREWORD .................................................................................................................... 7 1 Methodology and limitations ................................................................................ 9 1.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................. 9 1.2 Limitations ............................................................................................................... 10 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 11 3 UKRAINE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ......................................... 14 3.1 Basic country data ................................................................................................... 14 3.2 Government structure, Political Climate and Ruling Party ..................................... 18 3.3 GDP and Economic Growth ..................................................................................... 19 3.4 Electricity Imports and Exports. Electricity prices for business and households .... 23 3.5 Taxes ........................................................................................................................ 25 3.5.1 VAT ....................................................................................................................... 26 3.5.2 Income and Corporate Taxes ............................................................................... 26 3.5.3 Tax incentives for renewable energy investments .............................................. 27 4 UKRAINE PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY MARKET ........................................................ 28 4.1 General electricity market information ................................................................... 28 4.1.1 Electricity Consumption and Production ............................................................. 30 4.1.2 RES targets ........................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Photovoltaic market ................................................................................................ 32 4.2.1 Why invest in photovoltaic energy in Ukraine? ................................................... 33 4.2.2 Ukraine solar resource potential ......................................................................... 35 4.2.3 Overview of Ukraine photovoltaic market .......................................................... 36 4.2.4 Market prices for photovoltaic energy projects in Ukraine ................................ 40 4.2.5 Key development photovoltaic projects in Ukraine ............................................ 41 5 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE ......................................... 45 5.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives .......................................................................... 45 5.1.1 Precedent EU regulations .................................................................................... 45 5.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments.................................... 46 6 UKRAINE RES LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ........................................ 47 6.1 Main laws and regulations....................................................................................... 47 6.2 Applicability of the promotion system .................................................................... 48 6.3 Support scheme ....................................................................................................... 48 6.4 guarantees of origin (green certificates) ................................................................. 48 6.5 Zoning, planning and construction related authorizations ..................................... 49 6.5.1 Zoning plans procedure ....................................................................................... 49 6.5.2 Construction permit procedure ........................................................................... 504
  5. 5. UKRAINE PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 6.6 Environmental related authorizations .................................................................... 50 6.6.1 Natura 2000 Network .......................................................................................... 51 6.6.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) .............. 51 6.7 Energy law authorizations ....................................................................................... 52 6.7.1 Power Generation Licensing ................................................................................ 52 6.7.2 Grid Interconnection ........................................................................................... 53 6.7.3 Power Off-Take and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) ..................................... 54 6.7.4 Feed-in tarriff. Local manufacturing component ................................................ 55 6.8 Future market pricing mechanisms......................................................................... 57 6.9 Key Expected Changes in Ukrainian RES Law .......................................................... 57 6.10 Key Co-financing opportunities ............................................................................... 59 6.10.1 Ukraine Sustainable Energy Lending Facility (USELF) .......................................... 59 6.10.2 Ukraine Energy Efficiency Programme (UKEEP) .................................................. 627 KEY ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS ........................................................... 66 7.1 Government ............................................................................................................ 66 7.1.1 The Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry(MECI) ................................................ 66 7.1.2 Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT)...................................... 66 7.1.3 Ukrainian National Energy Regulatory Commission (NERC) ............................... 66 7.1.4 State Agency For Energy Efficiency and Energy Conservation (SAEEEC) ............ 67 7.1.5 State Environmental Investment Agency (SEIA).................................................. 67 7.1.6 Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources (MENR) ........................................... 67 7.1.7 Ministry of Agriculture and Food (MAF).............................................................. 68 7.2 Electricity generation and electricity distribution Companies................................ 68 7.2.1 Capacity of the electricity network ..................................................................... 69 7.2.2 National Electricity Company Ukrenergo (TSO) .................................................. 70 7.2.3 Energorynok......................................................................................................... 71 7.2.4 Distribution System Opeartors (Oblenergos) ...................................................... 72 7.2.5 DTEK ..................................................................................................................... 73 7.2.6 Energy Standard Group S.A. ................................................................................ 75 7.2.7 AES ....................................................................................................................... 75 7.2.8 VS Energy ............................................................................................................. 76 7.2.9 Privat Group ......................................................................................................... 76 7.3 Key photovoltaic companies operating on UKRAINE market ................................. 778 SWOT ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 799 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................... 8210 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................... 8511 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 8712 DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................ 89APPENDIX I. SOLAR MAPS OF EUROPE AND UKRAINE .................................................... 90 5
  6. 6. UKRAINE PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: OUTLOOK 2012 LIST OF MAPS, CHARTS AND TABLES Map 1: Where is Ukraine on the European map ..................................................................... 14 Map 2: Ukrainian Road Network .............................................................................................. 15 Map 3: Ukraine regions administrative map............................................................................ 17 MAP 4 Historical Regions of Ukraine........................................................................................ 18 Map 5: Solar resource map of Ukraine, GeoModel Solar s.r.o., 2012 ..................................... 34 Map 6: Solar irradiation and solar electricity potential for optimally inclined photovoltaic modules in Ukraine, JRC PVGIS 2008 ....................................................................................... 35 Map 7: Electricity grids network of Ukraine ............................................................................ 71 Map 8: Distribution system operators in Ukraine by type of ownership ................................ 73 Map 9: Districts covered by NPP AES Kievoblenergo ............................................................... 75 Map 10: Solar irradiation and solar electricity potential for horizontally mounted photovoltaic modules in Ukraine, JRC PVGIS 2008 .................................................................. 90 Map 11: Solar irradiation and solar electricity potential for horizontally mounted photovoltaic modules in Ukraine, GeoModel Solar s.r.o. 2012 ............................................... 91 Map 12: Solar irradiation and solar electricity potential for optimally inclined photovoltaic modules in Europe, JRC PVGIS 2008 ................................................................... 92 Chart 1: Real GDP growth for the period 2000-2018 (including estimates) ............................ 20 Chart 2: Ukrainian GDP growth compared to EU-27 for the period 2002-2018...................... 21 Chart 3: Electricity imports and exports for the period 2000-2018 (in million MWh) ............ 24 Chart 4: Corporate tax income in selected CEE and SEE countries ......................................... 26 Chart 5: Structure of Ukrainian electricity market ................................................................... 29 Chart 6: Share of renewables in gross final consumption of electricity 2012 ......................... 30 Chart 7: Ukrainian RES targets in % according to Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030 ...... 31 Chart 8: Cumulative developments of photovoltaic power plants in Ukraine in MWp from 2000 to 2018, including estimates .......................................................................................... 44 Chart 9: UKEEP Structure ......................................................................................................... 64 Chart 10: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators in Ukraine in 2012 . 68 Chart 11: Market share of DTEK in electricity sales and distribution in 2012 ......................... 74 Table 1: Electricity prices for business and households ........................................................... 25 Table 2: Support schemes for RES generation in the EU countries and Ukraine ..................... 33 Table 3: Market prices for photovoltaic projects in Ukraine for 2013 .................................... 41 Table 4: Selected operational, under construction and planned photovoltaic projects in Ukraine ..................................................................................................................................... 43 Table 5: Feed-in tarrifs for electricity from renewable sources in Ukraine 2012 ÷ 2015 ........ 56 ©2012. All rights reserved. Inea Consulting Ltd., Bulgaria6

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