Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final

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Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final

  1. 1. 12/07/2011 DRAFT MOT MINISTER REGULATION ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN (NPMP) 9 AUGUST 2011
  2. 2. DisclaimerThis document is being finalized by DGST (MOT) in cooperation with IndII. It mostlyrefers to previous IndII support on development of NPMP since July 2009 (under phase1, 2 and 3).This document is still in the form of preliminary draft, which need further discussionsand consultations with various stakeholders. It is planned that by November 2011 theFinal Draft MOT Regulation on NPMP can be issued.NPMP Consultant Team
  3. 3. DRAFT MOT MINISTER REGULATION ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN (NPMP)CONSIDERING THAT: a. Article 71, Shipping Law No. 17 the year of 2008 and Article 7, 8, and 9 of Government Regulation No 61, the year of 2009 regarding Ports provide that NPMP shall be formulated b. Based on Article 71 Para (4) of the Shipping Law, NPMP shall be decided by the Minister c. Taking into consideration to the statements as described in a and b above, the NPMP is needed to be stipulated in Minister of Transport RegulationREFERRING TO: 1. Shipping Law No. 17 the year of 2008 2. Government Regulation No. 61 the year of 2009 regarding Ports 3. President Regulation No 47 the Year of 2009 regarding Establishment and Organization of State Ministers 4. Minister of Transport Regulation No KM 43 the Year of 2005 regarding Organization, and Working Arrangement of the Ministry of Transport as amended with Minister of Transport Regulation No 20 the year of 2008Has decided to stipulate: Minister of Transport Regulation regarding NMPMArticle 1NPMP containing National Port Policy and Port Location Plan and Port Hierarchy is anintegrated part of National Port SystemArticle 2NPMP provides guidance for stipulating port location, construction, operation anddevelopment, and arrangement of a Port Master PlanThe NPMP is developed with consideration of: • National Spatial Plan, Provincial Spatial Plan, and Local Spatial Plan • Potential for regional economic and socio economic development • Potential for natural resource development • Development of the strategic environment, either domestic or internationalArticle 3The NPMP is stipulated for a period of 20 years and should be reviewed and updatedevery 5 (five) years
  4. 4. If there is a change in the strategic environment, the NPMP may be reviewed morethan once every yearsRevision of the NPMP may be made based on the 5 (five) years evaluationThe contain of NPMP is elaborated as described in the AttachmentArticle 4Director General of Sea Transport shall supervise and take further action needed toimplement the NPMPArticle 5This Regulation shall take into effect as the date of enactment.To promulgate this law to the public, it is hereby ordered to announce the enactmentof this Minister of Transport Regulation by placing it in the State Gazette of theRepublic IndonesiaStipulated in Jakarta on the dated of ...... 2011Minister of TransportFreddy Numberi
  5. 5. LAMPIRAN : PERMENHUB NO.___ NOPEMBER 2011 PERATURAN MENTERI PERHUBUNGANTENTANG : RENCANA INDUK PELABUHAN NASIONALDRAFT ATTACHMENT:REGULATION OF MOT MINISTER ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN1. INTRODUCTION1.1. Vision of National Port Master PlanThe vision is to create a strong economic base that provides port planning anddevelopment, in particular as regards with connecting reinventing of port managementin Indonesia including empowering port authorities competencies, clear direction andstrengthen the main economic drivers and diversify into new sectors /maincommodities, inclusive connect more developed regions to lagging regions and achievesustainable development and targeted economic and social development measures.1.2.Target 2030The 2030 vision encompasses “. . . a national port system that will contribute toconsistently reducing international and domestic transport costs” by: – Being able to accommodate the ships that will provide the lowest sea- freight costs – Serving ships promptly and effectively without causing undue delay – Ensuring high levels of cargo handling productivity – Optimizing the cost of port service delivery”By 2030, 16 of Indonesia’s main container ports will need to provide additionalcapacity. This includes accommodation for 9.4 million TEU at Tanjung Priok, 4.3 millionTEU at Tanjung Perak, 1.9 million TEU at Belawan/Kuala Tanjung and 0.9 million TEU atMakassar.The estimated total direct investment in port facilities for these elements of port trafficis US$ 19.2 billion, 60 percent is needed for container traffic, 18 percent for petroleumand petroleum products, 13 percent for coal, and 9 percent for CPO. It is estimated that about 70-75 percent of the investment in new Indonesiancontainer terminals could be provided by the private sector under long-termconcession arrangements. The remaining 25-30 percent of the investment for commonport infrastructure such as channel deepening and breakwaters will need to beprovided by the public sector. • Port performance target
  6. 6. 2. PRESENT/CURRENT PORT CONDITIONS2.1. Policy FrameworkIndonesian laws and regulations influence to the port management in Indonesia as aNational Policy: • Shipping Law No. 17/2008 and GR 61/2009 • Masterplan of acceleration and expansion of Indonesia economic development/ Indonesia economic corridor (MP3EI) • National Transportation System (SISTRANAS) • Blueprint of Intermodal/Multimodal Transport KM 15/2010 • Blueprint National Logistics System (Draft) • National Spatial Plan Act No. 26/2008 • Economic Zone of Industries (KEK) Act. No. 39/2009 • Investment of Capital Act. No. 25/2007 • Fairness of Competition Act. No. 5/1999 • Regional Government Act. No. 32/2004 • National Development Planning (RPJM, RPJP) • Presidential Regulation No. 67/2005 and 13/2010 (PPP) • International Conventions related to port affair2.2. Port Traffic, Facilities and Operations • In 2009, a total of 968.4 million tons were handled at Indonesian ports, consisting of 560.4 million tons of dry bulk cargo (nearly three-quarters of which was coal), 176.1 million tons of liquid bulk cargo (86 percent of which was petroleum and petroleum products or CPO), 143.7 million tons of general cargo and 88.2 million tons of containerized cargo. • Foreign trade accounted for 543.4 million tons or 56 percent of the total volume of cargo handled at Indonesian ports in 2009. Export shipments at 442.5 million tons accounted for more than 80 percent of the foreign trade, while imports of 101.0 million tons accounted for 20 percent of the foreign trade. The export figures are higher due to the substantial volume of coal exports of 278.6 million tons in 2009. • Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type (000’s tons) - 2009
  7. 7. 600,000 000s tons 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - General Container Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Cargo Loading 55,430 13,610 123,771 19,675 Unloading 55,430 13,613 123,743 19,675 Export 14,212 30,342 303,133 94,769 Import 18,628 30,658 9,719 41,954 • Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type, 1999 and 2009 (000’s tons) 180,000 000s tons 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - General Cargo Container Cargo Liquid Bulk 1999 70,966 27,692 148,644 2009 143,699 88,222 176,072 600,000000s tons 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 1999 2009 Dry Bulk 95,176 560,366
  8. 8. • Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s tons)• Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type, 2009 (000’s tons)
  9. 9. • Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type, 1999 and 2009 (000’s tons)Trade flow AAGR and cargo type 1999 2009 1999-2009IMPORTSGeneral cargo 11,777 18,628 4.7%Container cargo 6,755 30,658 16.3%Dry Bulk 12,281 9,719 -2.3%Liquid Bulk 17,327 41,954 9.2% Subtotal 48,140 100,958 7.7%EXPORTSGeneral cargo 16,635 14,212 -1.6%Container cargo 8,568 30,342 13.5%Dry Bulk 41,511 303,133 22.0%Liquid Bulk 38,535 94,769 9.4% Subtotal 105,249 442,457 15.4%DOMESTIC UNLOADINGGeneral cargo 25,018 55,430 8.3%Container cargo 5,844 13,613 8.8%Dry Bulk 26,885 123,743 16.5%Liquid Bulk 45,448 19,675 -8.0% Subtotal 103,195 212,460 7.5%DOMESTIC LOADINGGeneral cargo 17,535 55,430 12.2%Container cargo 6,525 13,610 7.6%Dry Bulk 14,499 123,771 23.9%Liquid Bulk 47,334 19,675 -8.4% Subtotal 85,893 212,485 9.5%TOTALGeneral cargo 70,966 143,699 7.3%Container cargo 27,692 88,222 12.3%Dry Bulk 95,176 560,366 19.4%Liquid Bulk 148,644 176,072 1.7% Total 342,477 968,361 11.0%Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST and Pelindio data.
  10. 10. • Indonesian General Cargo and Container Traffic by Trade Flow, 1999 and 2009 (000’s tons) Foreign Trade Domestic TradeType of cargo Imports Exports Subtotal Unloading Loading Subtotal Total1999General Cargo 11,777 16,635 28,412 25,018 17,535 42,553 70,966Container 6,755 8,568 15,323 5,844 6,525 12,368 27,692Total 18,532 25,203 43,735 30,862 24,059 54,922 98,657 % Containerized 36.5% 34.0% 35.0% 18.9% 27.1% 22.5% 28.1%2009General Cargo 18,628 14,212 32,840 55,430 55,430 110,859 143,699Container 30,658 30,342 61,000 13,613 13,610 27,223 88,222Total 49,286 44,554 93,840 69,042 69,040 138,082 231,922 % Containerized 62.2% 68.1% 65.0% 19.7% 19.7% 19.7% 38.0%Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST and Pelindio data. • Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2009 (000’s tons) Foreign Trade Domestic TradeType of cargo Imports Exports Subtotal Unloading Loading Subtotal TotalGeneral Cargo 18,628 14,212 32,840 55,430 55,430 110,859 143,699Container 30,658 30,342 61,000 13,613 13,610 27,223 88,222Dry Bulk 9,719 303,133 312,852 123,743 123,771 247,514 560,366 Cement - 144 144 7,459 7,483 14,941 15,085 Coal 685 278,618 279,303 69,674 69,674 139,349 418,652 Iron Ore 1,862 8,669 10,531 46 46 91 10,623 Fertilizer 3,360 1,802 5,162 15,331 15,334 30,665 35,828 Grain 3,469 363 3,832 1,172 1,172 2,343 6,175 Other Dry Bulk 343 13,537 13,879 30,062 30,062 60,124 74,003Liquid Bulk 41,954 94,769 136,723 19,675 19,675 39,349 176,072 Petroleum & Products 31,801 59,309 91,110 192 192 385 91,495 CPO 269 22,169 22,438 19,243 19,243 38,485 60,923 Other Liquid Bulk 9,884 13,291 23,175 240 240 479 23,654Total 100,958 442,457 543,415 212,460 212,485 424,946 968,361Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST shipping data.
  11. 11. • Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s tons) Foreign Trade Domestic TradePort Imports Exports Subtotal UnloadingLoading Subtotal TotalSamarinda 260 52,875 53,135 6,193 12,911 19,104 72,239Tg. Priok 23,060 20,930 43,990 10,840 12,272 23,112 67,101Tg. Perak 13,410 7,243 20,653 18,856 19,269 38,125 58,778Bontang 678 46,764 47,442 300 566 866 48,308Pontianak 52 250 302 13,175 33,371 46,546 46,847Tg. Bara 221 41,179 41,400 - - - 41,400Perawang 113 534 647 29,443 8,142 37,586 38,233Taboneo 103 36,043 36,146 213 224 437 36,582Kendawangan - 340 340 15,632 15,632 31,263 31,603Dumai 857 18,604 19,461 6,415 868 7,283 26,744Adang Bay 72 25,278 25,350 - - - 25,350Balikpapan 3,155 18,859 22,013 2,613 228 2,841 24,854Belawan 5,602 7,576 13,178 5,183 2,120 7,303 20,480Kota Baru 441 18,434 18,876 165 1,404 1,569 20,445Banjarmasin 143 11,658 11,800 6,632 1,011 7,642 19,443Tg. Balai Karimun 5,988 11,337 17,326 - 3 3 17,329Tg. Emas 3,572 2,709 6,282 3,594 7,120 10,714 16,995Merak 3,630 1,427 5,058 1,997 7,892 9,889 14,947Tarakan - 6,468 6,468 3,900 4,072 7,972 14,440Muara Pantai - 14,394 14,394 - - - 14,394Makassar 964 381 1,345 7,197 4,138 11,335 12,680Muara Satui 58 7,876 7,934 1,612 1,621 3,232 11,167Kuala Tungkal 47 272 319 188 9,358 9,546 9,865Satui - 246 246 38 8,947 8,985 9,231Teluk Melano - - - 8,947 - 8,947 8,947Kuaro - - - 8,934 - 8,934 8,934STS Karimun 4,420 4,423 8,843 - - - 8,843Falabisahaya - - - 8,350 29 8,379 8,379Cilacap 6,344 1,787 8,131 26 38 64 8,195Bitung 22 865 887 3,537 3,741 7,277 8,164Panjang 2,198 3,086 5,283 1,634 550 2,184 7,467Palembang 286 1,636 1,922 1,700 2,363 4,063 5,985Ambon 0 157 157 2,901 2,924 5,825 5,982Teluk Bayur 156 3,331 3,487 988 1,298 2,287 5,773Cigading 4,706 670 5,376 74 312 386 5,762P. Laut 72 5,616 5,688 - - - 5,688Tuban 83 1,580 1,663 371 3,632 4,003 5,666Tg. Pemancingan 50 5,387 5,437 0 48 49 5,485Tarahan 140 3,997 4,137 670 581 1,252 5,389Sei Putting - - - 2,358 2,268 4,626 4,626Batu Ampar 523 3,868 4,391 4 5 9 4,400Muara Berau 4 3,487 3,491 3 759 761 4,252Gresik 2,448 626 3,074 529 640 1,169 4,244Sunda Kelapa - - - 2,708 1,160 3,868 3,868Lawi-Lawi 3,494 186 3,679 - - - 3,679Balongan 3,122 476 3,597 3 2 5 3,602Bintuni 7 520 527 3,020 33 3,053 3,580Kumai 34 248 282 579 2,663 3,241 3,523Tg. Batu 16 189 205 523 2,636 3,159 3,364P. Sambu 96 22 118 2,867 328 3,195 3,313 Top 50 ports 90,646 394,089 484,735 185,001 177,232 362,233 846,968All other ports 10,312 48,368 58,680 27,459 35,253 62,713 121,392Total all ports 100,958 442,457 543,415 212,460 212,485 424,946 968,361Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
  12. 12. • Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2009 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Other Other General Dry Petrol. & Liq.Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Iron Ore Fertilizer Grain Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal TotalSamarinda 4,227 950 64 65,639 45 191 581 58 66,577 8 37 440 485 72,239Tg. Priok 10,273 39,228 3,861 5,325 232 246 1,698 1,978 13,340 2,725 525 1,010 4,260 67,101Tg. Perak 12,632 17,443 319 4,042 181 832 1,528 11,824 18,727 1,762 7,478 735 9,975 58,778Bontang 258 9 22 19,368 - 2,007 4 70 21,471 25,616 13 942 26,571 48,308Pontianak 24,745 992 968 10,024 - 9,011 21 0 20,023 22 1,041 23 1,086 46,847Tg. Bara 262 - - 40,818 - 148 - 28 40,994 - - 144 144 41,400Perawang 24,694 627 16 990 - 3 1 11,837 12,847 15 5 45 64 38,233Taboneo 448 - - 35,718 272 16 - - 36,005 - - 129 129 36,582Kendawangan 0 - - - 340 - - 31,263 31,603 - - - - 31,603Dumai 5,916 - 205 414 2 408 4 84 1,118 9,093 10,073 545 19,711 26,744Adang Bay - - - 25,019 36 100 - - 25,155 - - 195 195 25,350Balikpapan 925 381 14 15,412 - 69 8 522 16,025 3,668 193 3,663 7,524 24,854Belawan 2,486 8,884 876 2,033 20 704 65 316 4,015 776 4,106 213 5,096 20,480Kota Baru 472 5 26 18,431 989 2 1 7 19,456 249 140 123 512 20,445Banjarmasin 809 1,180 115 16,765 197 275 9 11 17,373 7 65 9 81 19,443Tg. Balai Karimun 438 - - 245 - 2 0 2,418 2,666 12,876 3 1,346 14,225 17,329Tg. Emas 704 5,752 85 9,596 - 169 189 64 10,104 67 240 128 435 16,995Merak 6,067 637 - 4,281 - - - 86 4,367 335 18 3,523 3,875 14,947Tarakan 327 173 - 13,651 90 15 - 148 13,905 35 - - 35 14,440Muara Pantai - - - 14,339 54 - - - 14,393 - 1 - 1 14,394Makassar 1,166 2,505 305 7,320 10 102 1,104 57 8,897 9 93 9 112 12,680Muara Satui - - - 10,971 174 - 21 - 11,167 - - - - 11,167Kuala Tungkal 6,779 225 - - - 2,812 3 14 2,829 21 8 4 33 9,865Satui 2 - 0 232 - - - - 232 - 8,996 - 8,996 9,231Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 8,946 - - 8,946 - 1 - 1 8,947Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 8,933 1 8,934 8,934STS Karimun 29 - - - - - - 967 967 6,701 - 1,146 7,847 8,843Falabisahaya 59 - - 8,319 - - 0 0 8,320 0 - - 0 8,379Cilacap 1,311 - - 60 - 48 227 - 335 5,627 19 902 6,549 8,195Bitung 6,378 626 28 - - 27 26 90 172 0 988 - 988 8,164Panjang 760 3,017 174 965 155 707 47 68 2,116 156 1,192 226 1,574 7,467Palembang 296 620 76 2,883 - 1,011 41 66 4,076 62 874 56 992 5,985Ambon 5,642 152 26 - - 0 24 96 146 41 - - 41 5,982Teluk Bayur 927 421 1,326 603 174 279 12 13 2,406 16 2,003 - 2,019 5,773Cigading 3,370 18 112 93 1,824 191 - 10 2,231 114 - 29 143 5,762P. Laut 14 - - 5,518 - - - 14 5,533 47 - 95 142 5,688Tuban 406 - 163 3,539 - 10 0 299 4,011 879 - 370 1,249 5,666Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 5,113 334 - - - 5,447 - - 38 38 5,485Tarahan 211 - - 5,162 - - 5 4 5,171 1 - 6 7 5,389Sei Putting - - - 4,614 - 12 - - 4,626 - - - - 4,626Batu Ampar 1,054 468 8 142 60 2 - 2,558 2,769 7 83 19 109 4,400Muara Berau 2 - - 4,246 - 4 - - 4,250 - - - - 4,252Gresik 194 14 44 - 20 2,682 10 361 3,117 225 - 694 919 4,244Sunda Kelapa 86 - 950 - - 2,823 3 5 3,780 0 - 1 1 3,868Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 3,653 - 26 3,679 3,679Balongan 171 - - - - - - - - 2,834 - 598 3,432 3,602Bintuni 52 1 3,000 - - - 2 3 3,006 497 - 23 520 3,580Kumai 15 19 5 403 76 14 5 - 502 - 2,987 - 2,987 3,523Tg. Batu 25 - - 3,326 - - - 1 3,326 6 - 7 12 3,364P. Sambu 1 - - 3,192 - - - - 97 - 23 3,313 Top 50 ports 124,666 84,462 12,792 368,813 5,509 33,874 5,639 65,365 488,799 - 78,249 50,117 17,484 145,729 846,968All other ports 19,034 3,761 2,294 49,839 5,114 1,953 536 8,638 71,567 13,246 10,807 6,170 30,343 121,392Total all ports 143,699 88,222 15,085 418,652 10,623 35,828 6,175 74,003 560,366 91,495 60,923 23,654 176,072 968,361Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
  13. 13. • Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Container Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s TEU) Foreign Trade Domestic TradePort Imports Exports Subtotal Unloading Loading Subtotal TotalTg. Priok 1,605 1,485 3,090 328 505 833 3,923Tg. Perak 630 576 1,206 256 282 539 1,744Belawan 302 309 610 180 98 278 888Tg. Emas 291 253 543 17 15 32 575Panjang 137 139 277 14 11 25 302Makassar 2 - 2 144 104 249 250Banjarmasin - - - 61 57 118 118Pontianak - - - 70 29 99 99Samarinda 0 - 0 50 45 95 95Pekanbaru 11 32 44 16 13 30 73Merak 25 36 61 1 1 3 64Perawang 1 53 54 4 5 9 63Bitung - - - 27 36 63 63Palembang 16 16 33 14 15 29 62Batu Ampar 18 29 47 - - - 47Teluk Bayur - - - 20 22 42 42Balikpapan 1 2 3 19 16 35 38Batam 1 3 4 15 11 26 30Jayapura - - - 12 15 28 28Buatan 2 26 27 - - - 27Kabil 12 15 27 0 0 0 27Kuala Tungkal 0 22 22 - - - 22Sorong - - - 13 9 22 22Tarakan - - - 9 8 17 17Ambon - - - 7 8 15 15Batu Licin - - - 7 7 14 14Bau-Bau - - - 7 4 11 11Biak - - - 7 3 10 10Merauke - - - 6 4 10 10P. Burung - 10 10 - - - 10Talang Duku 4 5 9 - - - 9Palu - - - 5 4 9 9Timika - - - 5 4 9 9Kendari - - - 6 3 9 9S. Guntung - 8 8 - - - 8Fak-Fak - - - 4 3 7 7Manokwari - - - 4 3 7 7Nabire - - - 4 3 6 6Benoa - - - 3 3 6 6Benete 2 3 5 - - - 5Jambi 2 2 5 - - - 5Muntok 2 2 4 - - - 4Sampit - - - 2 2 4 4S. Buatan 0 3 4 - - - 4Pantoloan - - - 2 1 3 3Pangkal Balam 1 1 3 0 - 0 3Malili - - - 1 1 2 2Tg. Pandan - - - 1 1 2 2Kumai - - - 1 1 2 2Luwuk - - - 1 0 2 2 Top 50 ports 3,064 3,031 6,095 1,347 1,354 2,700 8,796All other ports 1 3 5 14 7 22 26Total all ports 3,066 3,034 6,100 1,361 1,361 2,722 8,822Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
  14. 14. • Indonesian Main Ports for Containers, Selected Years, 1990-2009 (TEU) Avergae annual growth rate (%) Port 1990 2000 2008 2009 1990-2009 1990-2000 2000-2009 2000-2008 Tanjung Priok 643,582 2,494,606 3,973,661 3,799,411 9.8 14.5 4.8 5.8 Tanjung Perak 198,135 915,000 2,213,477 1,744,300 12.1 16.5 7.4 12.3 Belawan 82,585 311,089 590,069 888,400 13.3 14.2 12.4 6.4 Tanjung Emas 37,361 262,697 468,177 576,100 15.5 21.5 9.1 7.3 Makasar 6,457 164,684 362,452 463,818 25.2 38.2 12.2 9.3 Banjarmasin 2,766 142,958 258,034 284,282 27.6 48.4 7.9 11.3 Samarinda - 68,685 167,387 266,438 - - 16.3 11.8 Pontianak 847 93,098 132,732 133,419 30.5 60.0 4.1 3.5 Panjang 19,386 76,090 106,935 104,175 9.3 14.7 3.6 4.3 Palembang 8,300 45,657 78,469 84,403 13.0 18.6 7.1 7.8 Bitung 134 66,737 105,405 61,914 38.1 86.1 (0.8) 5.9 Pekanbaru - 14,236 50,548 57,612 - - 16.8 (10.0) Balikpapan 754 22,401 70,952 52,844 25.1 40.4 10.0 10.1 Jambi - 36,655 54,276 52,086 - - 4.0 5.8 Teluk Bayur - 12,383 48,503 47,633 - - 16.1 16.0 Batam a/ 133,345 125,000 104,200 - - (2.7) (0.9) Jayapura - 264 30,405 25,592 - - 66.2 72.0 Sorong - 2,163 18,832 24,110 - - 30.7 23.3 Subtotal 1,000,307 4,860,585 8,836,482 8,746,627 12.1 17.1 6.7 7.4 Other ports - 67,915 45,984 224,911 - - 14.2 (4.7) Total 1,000,307 4,928,500 8,882,466 8,971,538 12.2 17.3 6.9 7.3 a/Batam includes Batu Ampar and Kabil. Source: Compiled by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST, Pelindo II and other data.• Indonesian Main Ports for Containers, Selected Years, 1990-2009 (TEU) 14
  15. 15. • Domestic and International Container Traffic at All Indonesian Ports, 1990-2009 (TEU) 9,000,000 TEUs 8,000,000 International 7,000,000 Domestic 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year • Resume of port facilities in Indonesian • Resume of port performance 2009/20103. NATIONAL PORT POLICY • Greater participation of private sector, fair competition in providing maritime transport services (including port services), regional government autonomy, accountability of government institution governance, and greater concern for maritime safety and security and environmental preservation for the sake of national interest. • As node of transportation network, gateway for economic activities, interfaces of multimodal transport, promoting industry and trading activities, cargo consolidation centre, promoting “wawasan nusantara” • Separation of regulator and operator functions (reflected by establishing of PA/PMU and Port Business Entity) • PA/PMU shall be landlord authority and shall be clearly reflected in the establishment of PA/PMU • PA shall have a certain degree of autonomy in organizing commercial port • Increasing PSP under fair competition environment • PSP could be in term of PPP through concession agreement or other form of cooperation with PA/PMU • Restructure the status of Pelindo versus the role of PA landlord organizations and as regulators • Clear guidelines on the formulation of operational regulations by PA/PMU • The Ministry develops port policies related to: o Planning and development of basic infrastructure including port entrances, lighthouses, aid to navigation, port basin, and breakwater o Planning and development of ports (location, function, type of management o Planning and development of port hinterland connection • Procedure of new port development (Greenfield) and new public terminal shall be clearly formulated 15
  16. 16. 4. FUTURE PORT DEVELOPMENT4.1. Strategic Environment • Preparing the port traffic forecast, with representatives of other economic, spatial and logistical planning efforts currently being implemented in Indonesia. These include: • Masterplan of Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025 (MP3EI) • National Transportation System (SISTRANAS) • Blueprint of Intermodal/Multimodal Transport and National Logistics System • Strategic Plan of National Transportation Development • The MP3EI directive is aimed at implementing the 2005 to 2025 Long-term National Development Plan, which is stated in the Law No. 17 Year 2007, the vision of the acceleration and expansion of Indonesia’s economic development is to create a self-sufficient, advanced, just, and prosperous Indonesia. By utilizing the MP3EI, Indonesia aims to earn its place as one of the world’s developed countries by 2025 with expected per capita income of US$ 14,250-US$ 15,500 with total GDP of US$ 4.0-4.5 trillion. To achieve the above objectives, real annual economic growth of 6.4-7.5 percent is expected for the period of 2011 to 2014. This economic growth is expected to coincide with the decrease in the rate of inflation from 6.5 percent in 2011 to 2014 to 3.0 percent in 2025 . • The 2025’s vision is achieved by focusing on three main goals: • Increase value adding and expanding value chain for industrial production processes, and increase the efficiency of the distribution network. In addition increase the capability of industry to access and utilize natural resources and human resources. These increases can be attained by the creation of economic activities within regions as well as among regional centers of economic growth. • Encourage efficiency in production and improve marketing efforts to further integrate domestic markets in order to push for competitiveness and strengthen the national economy. • To push for the strengthening of the national innovation system in the areas of production, process, and marketing with a focus on the overall strengthening of sustainable global competitiveness towards an innovation-driven economy. • Acceleration and expansion of Indonesia’s economic development are based on the development of existing and creation of new growth centers. This development strategy is essentially an integration of the sectoral and regional development approaches. The purpose of developing new growth centers is to optimize agglomeration advantages, to exploit regional strengths, and to reduce spatial imbalance of economic development throughout the country. As part of this strategy, each region will develop their own specific local products. • The development of economic growth centers will be managed through the development of industrial clusters and special economic zones (SEZ). This will be accompanied with increased and improved connectivity between the centers of economic growth (major cities) and main industrial clusters supported by improved infrastructure including roads, seaports, airports, power, water, and other related infrastructures. In all, growth centers and connectivity are the building blocks of Indonesia Economic Corridors. Increasing the economic potential of the region through the economic corridors has become one of the three main pillars of MP3EI. • The success of the MP3EI depends on the strength of national and international economic connectivity (intra and inter region). With this consideration, the MP3EI has identified the strengthening of national connectivity as one of three main pillars. National connectivity consist of four national policy elements i.e. National Logistic System (Sistem Logistik Nasional/Sislognas), 16
  17. 17. National Transportation System (Sistem Transportasi Nasional/Sistranas), Regional Development (RPJMN/RTRWN), and Information and Communication Technology (ICT). These policies were combined in order to create an effective, efficient, and integrated national connectivity. • The development of economic corridors in Indonesia is based on the potentials and advantages inherent in each region. As a country consisting of thousands of islands and located between two continents and two oceans, the Indonesian archipelago has a unique combination of economic potentials with each major island or region having its own strategic future role in achieving Indonesia’s 2025 vision.4.2. Forecast of Indonesia Port Traffic4.2.1 Future Trend of Port Demand • The top 50 ports in Indonesia handled 846.9 million tons in 2009 or 87.2 percent of the total traffic. Accounting for 89 percent of the foreign trade and 85 percent of the domestic trade volumes in 2009.4.2.2 Future Trend of Container Demand • International Traffic, Modeling based on Other Countries & Indonesia GDP • Domestic Traffic, by Indonesia GDP • High growth of container demand also resulted from containerization of general cargo • It is predicted that national container demand on 2030 might reach 29.4 Million TEUs of International Traffic (6.2 Million TEUs on 2009) and 18.3 Million TEUs of Domestic Traffic (2.7 Million TEUs on 2009) 50,000000s TEUs 45,000 Domestic 40,000 International 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year4.2.3 Future Trend of Port Demand by Commodity Type • General Cargo, the growth rates for domestic and international general cargo traffic are about one-third of those forecast for containers. This reflects the recent growth rates experienced for international general cargo traffic and the expectation that there will be further containerization of domestic general cargo. • Dry Bulk o Cement, the Indonesia Cement Association prepares forecasts cement industry sales which are forecast to increase to 49 million tons in 2015 corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 4.8 percent and it is forecasted to be 113 million tons of domestic cement sales by 2030, corresponding to an average growth rate of 5.7 percent. 17
  18. 18. o Coal, Indonesia is one of the world leading producers of coal and leads the world in exports of thermal coal. In 2010, coal production in Indonesia totaled 325 million tons, of which 265 million tons were exported and 60 million tons were consumed domestically. Potential areas of expansion in Central Kalimantan and inland locations in Sumatera will require development of costly inland transportation systems. It is expected that until such inland transport systems are developed, coal production in Indonesia will increase modestly at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. As domestic consumption increases with the implementation of the national energy policy, Indonesian exports of coal are expected to remain flat or decline slightly. o Iron Ore, Large quantities of iron ore reserves are located in Kalimantan. However, the national iron ore production is mostly exported and not used in domestic steelmaking as Indonesia does not currently process iron ore into sponge iron or iron pellet. As such, and also due to the ferrous content of the iron ore, the domestic steel company PT. Krakatau Steel imports iron ore from Chile, Brazil and other countries. Hence, Indonesian port traffic for iron ore is in foreign trade, both for imports and exports. Iron ore port traffic is forecast to increase at an annual rate of 4.9 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 4.6 percent from 2015 to 2020 reflecting the increased demand for steel domestically and the resulting requirement for increased iron ore imports as well as modest increases in iron ore production and exports. o Fertilizer, the increased use of fertilizer in Indonesian agriculture is a significant component of the MP3EI plans for increasing yields of Indonesian principal crops. In 2011, Indonesian production of urea fertilizer is estimated at 7.1 million tons, about 81 percent of the estimated production capacity of 8.8 million tons. Other major types of fertilizer produced in Indonesia are ammonia-based products and nitrogen- phosphorous and potassium (NPK) products. o Grain, grain traffic handled at Indonesian ports consists of foreign imports of wheat and other grains and domestic shipments of rice, corn and other common crops. The major grain that is imported is wheat. Presently Indonesian imports a total of about four and a half million tons of wheat annually, and more than half are passing through Tanjung Priok. It is forecasted that Indonesia will import a total of about 7 million tons of wheat in 2030 as both population and per capita GDP increase. o Other Dry Bulk, other dry bulk commodities include other ores and minerals, sand and aggregates used for construction, chemical products, iron and steel and forestry products. This category of port traffic is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 3.1 percent from 2015 to 2020.• Liquid Bulk o Petroleum and Petroleum Products, it can be expected that generally a low growth rate in future because of the probable removal of fuel subsidies and the likely high world price of crude oil in the long term. The factors affecting demand will be increasing population and rising per capita incomes. They estimated that demand will grow at 3.0 percent a year between 2009 and 2030. o Crude Palm Oil (CPO), Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world with 19.5 million tons in 2009. Malaysia is a close second at 17.5 million tons in 2009. Together these two countries account for about 82 percent of global CPO production. It is believed that CPO production and shipments will increase at an average annual rate of 5.0 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 4.5 percent from 2015 to 2020, based on the assumption that new areas being brought under production are limited. The rate of growth for CPO production is thus assumed to be approximately equal to the long-term growth rate of global CPO demand. o Other Liquid Bulk, includes chemical products and other edible oils and products, such as vegetable oil and molasses. These other liquid bulk products are shipped as 18
  19. 19. international trade and consist roughly of 60 percent exports and 40 percent imports. Indonesian port traffic of other liquid bulk products is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent from 2009 to 2015 and by 3.5 percent from 2015 to 2020.4.2.4 Future Trend of Port Demand • by Economic Corridor Development Area, Forecasting Year 2030 (tons), Base Case • Assignment to specific port; container in TEUs 19
  20. 20. • Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2015 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Other Other General Iron Dry Petrol. & Liq.Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Ore Fertilizer Grain Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal TotalSamarinda 5,523 1,859 121 75,670 60 252 654 71 76,829 11 50 557 617 84,828Tg. Priok 13,425 76,710 7,327 6,138 309 324 1,912 2,445 18,455 3,548 703 1,279 5,531 114,121Tg. Perak 16,506 34,111 606 4,660 240 1,097 1,721 14,615 22,940 2,295 10,022 931 13,247 86,805Bontang 337 18 41 22,328 - 2,647 4 87 25,107 33,358 18 1,193 34,569 60,031Pontianak 32,335 1,941 1,837 11,556 - 11,885 23 0 25,301 29 1,395 29 1,453 61,030Tg. Bara 343 - - 47,056 - 195 - 35 47,286 - - 182 182 47,811Perawang 32,269 1,226 30 1,141 - 4 1 14,631 15,807 19 6 57 83 49,385Taboneo 585 - - 41,176 362 21 - - 41,558 - - 163 163 42,307Kendawangan 0 - - - 451 - - 38,642 39,093 - - - - 39,093Dumai 7,730 - 390 477 2 539 5 104 1,517 11,841 13,498 691 26,030 35,277Adang Bay - - - 28,843 48 132 - - 29,023 - - 247 247 29,270Balikpapan 1,208 745 26 17,768 - 91 9 645 18,539 4,776 259 4,640 9,675 30,167Belawan/ K Tanjung 4,279 17,373 1,699 2,389 26 947 74 395 5,530 1,160 7,915 271 9,347 36,529Kota Baru 616 9 49 21,248 1,313 3 1 9 22,624 324 188 156 668 23,917Banjarmasin 1,058 2,308 219 19,328 262 363 10 14 20,195 8 87 11 107 23,667Tg. Balai Karimun 573 - - 282 - 3 0 2,989 3,274 16,768 4 1,706 18,477 22,324Tg. Emas 920 11,249 162 11,062 - 223 213 80 11,739 88 322 162 572 24,480Merak 7,929 1,246 - 4,935 - - - 106 5,041 436 24 4,462 4,923 19,138Tarakan 428 339 - 15,738 119 20 - 183 16,060 46 - - 46 16,872Muara Pantai - - - 16,531 71 - - - 16,602 - 1 - 1 16,604Makassar 1,524 4,898 579 8,439 13 135 1,243 70 10,478 12 125 12 148 17,048Muara Satui - - - 12,648 231 - 24 - 12,903 - - - - 12,903Kuala Tungkal 8,858 439 - - - 3,709 3 18 3,730 27 11 5 43 13,069Satui 3 - 0 267 - - - - 268 - 12,056 - 12,056 12,326Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 11,800 - - 11,800 - 1 - 1 11,801Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 11,971 2 11,972 11,972STS Karimun 38 - - - - - - 1,195 1,195 8,726 - 1,452 10,178 11,411Falabisahaya 77 - - 9,591 - - 0 0 9,591 1 - - 1 9,669Cilacap 1,713 - - 69 - 63 256 - 389 7,328 26 1,143 8,497 10,599Bitung 8,335 1,223 54 - - 36 29 111 230 0 1,324 - 1,325 11,113Panjang 994 5,900 330 1,113 205 933 53 84 2,718 204 1,597 286 2,086 11,698Palembang 387 1,212 144 3,324 - 1,333 46 82 4,928 81 1,172 71 1,323 7,851Ambon 7,373 298 49 - - 0 27 119 195 54 - - 54 7,920Teluk Bayur 1,212 823 2,516 695 231 368 14 16 3,839 21 2,684 - 2,705 8,579Cigading 4,403 36 213 107 2,423 253 - 13 3,009 149 - 37 186 7,634P. Laut 18 - - 6,361 - - - 18 6,379 61 - 120 181 6,578Tuban 531 - 309 4,079 - 13 0 370 4,772 1,144 - 469 1,614 6,916Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 5,894 444 - - - 6,338 - - 48 48 6,387Tarahan 276 - - 5,951 - - 6 5 5,961 1 - 8 9 6,246Sei Putting - - - 5,319 - 16 - - 5,335 - - - - 5,335Batu Ampar 1,377 915 15 164 80 2 - 3,161 3,422 10 111 24 145 5,859Muara Berau 3 - - 4,895 - 5 - - 4,900 - - - - 4,903Gresik 253 28 84 - 27 3,538 11 446 4,105 293 - 879 1,172 5,558Sunda Kelapa 113 - 1,802 - - 3,724 3 6 5,535 0 - 1 1 5,649Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 4,757 - 33 4,790 4,790Balongan 223 - - - - - - - - 3,691 - 757 4,448 4,671Bintuni 68 3 5,693 - - - 3 4 5,699 647 - 30 677 6,447Kumai 19 37 9 465 101 18 5 - 598 - 4,003 - 4,003 4,658P. Sambu 0 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 - 0 0 0Tg. Batu 32 - - 3,834 - - - 1 3,835 7 - 9 16 3,883 Top 50 ports 163,933 165,165 24,310 421,542 7,319 44,699 6,350 80,796 585,017 101,922 69,574 22,122 193,618 1,107,733All other ports 23,842 7,355 4,315 61,091 6,795 2,558 604 10,673 86,036 17,228 12,069 7,844 37,141 154,374Total all ports 187,775 172,519 28,625 482,633 14,114 47,257 6,954 91,469 671,053 119,151 81,643 29,965 230,759 1,262,107Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.. 20
  21. 21. • Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2020 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Other General Iron Other Petrol. & Liq.Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Ore Fertilizer Grain Dry Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal TotalSamarinda 6,590 2,772 158 81,858 75 309 711 83 83,194 13 62 663 738 93,293Tg. Priok 16,017 114,404 9,576 6,640 387 397 2,078 2,848 21,926 4,317 877 1,522 6,716 159,063Tg. Perak 19,694 50,872 792 5,041 301 1,345 1,870 17,023 26,373 2,792 12,489 1,107 16,388 113,327Bontang 402 26 54 24,154 - 3,245 5 101 27,558 40,586 22 1,419 42,027 70,014Pontianak 38,581 2,894 2,401 12,501 - 14,570 25 0 29,497 35 1,739 34 1,808 72,780Tg. Bara 409 - - 50,904 - 239 - 40 51,184 - - 217 217 51,809Perawang 38,501 1,829 39 1,235 - 4 1 17,042 18,321 23 8 68 99 58,750Taboneo 698 - - 44,543 453 25 - - 45,022 - - 194 194 45,915Kendawangan 0 - - - 565 - - 45,008 45,573 - - - - 45,573Dumai 9,223 - 509 516 3 661 5 121 1,815 14,407 16,821 822 32,049 43,088Adang Bay - - - 31,202 60 162 - - 31,423 - - 294 294 31,717Balikpapan 1,442 1,111 33 19,221 - 112 10 751 20,128 5,811 322 5,520 11,653 34,333Belawan/ K Tanjung 5,105 25,910 2,221 2,584 33 1,161 80 460 6,539 1,411 9,864 323 11,598 49,153Kota Baru 736 14 65 22,985 1,646 4 1 10 24,711 394 234 186 814 26,274Banjarmasin 1,262 3,441 286 20,908 328 445 11 16 21,994 10 109 13 132 26,830Tg. Balai Karimun 683 - - 306 - 3 0 3,482 3,791 20,400 5 2,029 22,434 26,908Tg. Emas 1,097 16,776 212 11,967 - 273 232 93 12,776 107 402 192 701 31,350Merak 9,460 1,858 - 5,339 - - - 123 5,462 531 30 5,308 5,869 22,649Tarakan 510 505 - 17,024 149 25 - 214 17,412 55 - - 55 18,483Muara Pantai - - - 17,883 90 - - - 17,972 - 2 - 2 17,974Makassar 1,818 7,304 756 9,129 16 165 1,351 81 11,499 14 156 14 184 20,805Muara Satui - - - 13,682 290 - 26 - 13,998 - - - - 13,998Kuala Tungkal 10,569 655 - - - 4,547 3 20 4,571 33 13 6 52 15,847Satui 4 - 0 289 - - - - 290 - 15,024 - 15,024 15,317Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 14,466 - - 14,466 - 2 - 2 14,467Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 14,917 2 14,920 14,920STS Karimun 45 - - - - - - 1,392 1,392 10,617 - 1,727 12,344 13,782Falabisahaya 92 - - 10,375 - - 0 0 10,375 1 - - 1 10,468Cilacap 2,044 - - 75 - 78 278 - 431 8,916 32 1,360 10,308 12,782Bitung 9,944 1,825 70 - - 44 32 130 276 0 1,650 - 1,651 13,696Panjang 1,186 8,800 431 1,204 257 1,144 57 98 3,191 248 1,990 340 2,578 15,754Palembang 462 1,808 188 3,596 - 1,634 50 95 5,563 99 1,460 84 1,643 9,475Ambon 8,797 444 64 - - 0 29 138 232 65 - - 65 9,539Teluk Bayur 1,446 1,227 3,289 751 289 451 15 18 4,813 26 3,345 - 3,371 10,857Cigading 5,254 54 279 116 3,036 310 - 15 3,756 181 - 43 225 9,288P. Laut 21 - - 6,882 - - - 21 6,902 74 - 143 217 7,141Tuban 633 - 404 4,413 - 16 0 431 5,264 1,392 - 558 1,951 7,848Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 6,376 557 - - - 6,933 - - 57 57 6,990Tarahan 329 - - 6,437 - - 6 6 6,449 2 - 9 11 6,789Sei Putting - - - 5,754 - 20 - - 5,774 - - - - 5,774Batu Ampar 1,643 1,365 20 177 100 2 - 3,682 3,981 12 138 29 179 7,167Muara Berau 4 - - 5,295 - 6 - - 5,302 - - - - 5,305Gresik 302 41 110 - 33 4,337 12 520 5,011 356 - 1,045 1,402 6,757Sunda Kelapa 135 - 2,355 - - 4,565 4 7 6,930 0 - 2 2 7,067Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 5,788 - 39 5,827 5,827Balongan 266 - - - - - - - - 4,491 - 900 5,391 5,657Bintuni 81 4 7,440 - - - 3 5 7,448 787 - 35 823 8,356Kumai 23 55 12 503 126 22 6 - 669 - 4,989 - 4,989 5,736P. Sambu 0 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 - 0 0 0Tg. Batu 39 - - 4,148 - - - 1 4,148 9 - 10 19 4,206 Top 50 ports 195,596 246,323 31,772 456,014 9,171 54,796 6,901 94,106 652,760 124,004 86,702 26,315 237,022 1,331,700All other ports 28,447 10,968 5,640 66,087 8,514 3,136 656 12,431 96,464 20,961 15,040 9,331 45,332 181,211Total all ports 224,043 257,291 37,411 522,101 17,686 57,932 7,557 106,537 749,224 144,965 101,742 35,646 282,353 1,512,911Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.. 21
  22. 22. • Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2030 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk General Other Dry Petrol. & Other Liq.Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Iron Ore Fertilizer Grain Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal TotalSamarinda 8,622 5,146 267 100,849 108 443 825 106 102,599 19 91 893 1,003 117,371Tg. Priok 20,959 212,399 16,179 8,181 558 569 2,412 3,646 31,545 6,390 1,298 2,050 9,738 274,641Tg. Perak 25,770 94,447 1,339 6,211 435 1,928 2,170 21,791 33,873 4,133 18,486 1,492 24,111 178,202Bontang 526 48 90 29,757 - 4,653 5 129 34,635 60,077 33 1,912 62,022 97,231Pontianak 50,482 5,374 4,057 15,401 - 20,887 29 0 40,374 52 2,574 46 2,672 98,902Tg. Bara 535 - - 62,714 - 343 - 52 63,108 - - 292 292 63,935Perawang 50,378 3,396 66 1,521 - 6 2 21,815 23,410 35 12 91 138 77,321Taboneo 914 - - 54,877 654 36 - - 55,568 - - 262 262 56,743Kendawangan 0 - - - 816 - - 57,614 58,430 - - - - 58,430Dumai 12,068 - 861 636 4 947 6 155 2,608 21,325 24,900 1,107 47,332 62,008Adang Bay - - - 38,440 87 232 - - 38,758 - - 396 396 39,154Balikpapan 1,886 2,062 57 23,680 - 161 12 962 24,870 8,602 477 7,436 16,515 45,333Belawan/ K Tanjung 6,680 48,104 3,752 3,184 48 1,664 93 589 9,330 2,089 14,601 435 17,125 81,239Kota Baru 962 26 109 28,318 2,376 6 1 13 30,824 583 347 250 1,180 32,992Banjarmasin 1,651 6,389 484 25,759 474 638 12 21 27,386 15 161 18 194 35,621Tg. Balai Karimun 894 - - 376 - 5 0 4,457 4,838 30,197 7 2,733 32,937 38,670Tg. Emas 1,436 31,146 357 14,743 - 391 269 119 15,879 158 594 259 1,011 49,473Merak 12,378 3,450 - 6,578 - - - 158 6,735 786 44 7,151 7,981 30,544Tarakan 667 938 - 20,974 215 35 - 274 21,498 82 - - 82 23,186Muara Pantai - - - 22,031 129 - - - 22,161 - 2 - 2 22,163Makassar 2,379 13,561 1,278 11,247 23 237 1,567 104 14,457 21 230 19 270 30,667Muara Satui - - - 16,857 419 - 30 - 17,305 - - - - 17,305Kuala Tungkal 13,829 1,217 - - - 6,519 4 26 6,548 48 20 8 76 21,670Satui 5 - 0 356 - - - - 357 - 22,239 - 22,239 22,600Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 20,737 - - 20,737 - 3 - 3 20,740Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 22,081 3 22,084 22,084STS Karimun 59 - - - - - - 1,782 1,782 15,716 - 2,327 18,043 19,884Falabisahaya 121 - - 12,782 - - 0 0 12,782 1 - - 1 12,904Cilacap 2,674 - - 92 - 111 323 - 526 13,198 48 1,831 15,078 18,278Bitung 13,012 3,388 118 - - 63 37 166 385 0 2,443 - 2,443 19,228Panjang 1,551 16,337 728 1,483 371 1,639 66 125 4,414 367 2,946 458 3,771 26,074Palembang 604 3,357 317 4,430 - 2,342 58 122 7,269 146 2,161 113 2,421 13,651Ambon 11,511 825 109 - - 0 34 177 320 97 - - 97 12,753Teluk Bayur 1,892 2,277 5,556 926 417 646 18 23 7,587 38 4,951 - 4,989 16,745Cigading 6,874 100 471 143 4,384 444 - 19 5,461 268 - 59 327 12,763P. Laut 28 - - 8,478 - - - 27 8,505 110 - 193 303 8,835Tuban 828 - 683 5,437 - 23 0 552 6,694 2,061 - 752 2,813 10,335Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 7,856 804 - - - 8,659 - - 76 76 8,736Tarahan 431 - - 7,931 - - 7 7 7,945 2 - 12 15 8,391Sei Putting - - - 7,089 - 28 - - 7,117 - - - - 7,117Batu Ampar 2,150 2,533 33 218 144 3 - 4,713 5,112 17 205 39 261 10,056Muara Berau 5 - - 6,524 - 9 - - 6,533 - - - - 6,538Gresik 396 77 186 - 48 6,217 14 665 7,130 527 - 1,408 1,936 9,538Sunda Kelapa 176 - 3,979 - - 6,544 4 8 10,536 0 - 2 2 10,714Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 8,568 - 53 8,621 8,621Balongan 348 - - - - - - - - 6,648 - 1,213 7,861 8,208Bintuni 107 8 12,571 - - - 3 6 12,580 1,166 - 48 1,213 13,908Kumai 30 102 21 619 182 32 7 - 861 - 7,384 - 7,384 8,378P. Sambu 1 - - 4,905 - - - - 4,905 229 - 47 275 5,181Tg. Batu 51 - - 5,110 - - - 1 5,111 13 - 14 27 5,188 Top 50 ports 255,934 457,317 53,682 566,710 13,243 78,554 8,009 120,463 840,660 183,785 128,340 35,495 347,620 1,901,532All other ports 37,221 20,364 9,529 76,514 12,294 4,495 762 15,913 119,507 30,799 22,263 12,523 65,584 242,675Total all ports 293,155 477,680 63,210 643,224 25,537 83,050 8,770 136,376 960,167 214,584 150,603 48,017 413,204 2,144,207Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.. 22
  23. 23. • Indonesian Container Traffic under Alternative Growth Scenario, 2009-2030 (000’s TEU) Low Growth Base Case High Growth Year InternationalDomestic Total InternationaDomestic Total InternationaDomestic Total 2009 6.199 2.772 8.972 6.199 2.772 8.972 6.199 2.772 8.972 2010 6.926 4.050 10.976 6.926 4.050 10.976 6.926 4.050 10.976 2011 7.548 4.464 12.012 7.557 4.464 12.022 7.577 4.464 12.041 2012 8.172 4.890 13.062 8.249 4.926 13.174 8.308 4.961 13.269 2013 8.838 5.342 14.180 8.997 5.427 14.424 9.107 5.502 14.609 2014 9.549 5.820 15.370 9.809 5.971 15.780 9.981 6.093 16.073 2015 10.308 6.328 16.636 10.689 6.563 17.252 10.937 6.736 17.673 2016 11.099 6.866 17.965 11.644 7.206 18.851 11.984 7.439 19.423 2017 11.904 7.388 19.293 12.603 7.876 20.478 13.033 8.195 21.228 2018 12.761 7.939 20.701 13.614 8.569 22.183 14.161 9.007 23.168 2019 13.673 8.521 22.194 14.680 9.287 23.967 15.375 9.880 25.255 2020 14.585 9.079 23.664 15.727 10.002 25.729 16.603 10.756 27.359 2021 15.527 9.665 25.191 16.790 10.697 27.487 17.883 11.694 29.577 2022 16.524 10.280 26.804 17.918 11.430 29.349 19.252 12.697 31.949 2023 17.582 10.925 28.508 19.117 12.204 31.321 20.716 13.770 34.486 2024 18.704 11.604 30.307 20.390 13.020 33.411 22.282 14.919 37.201 2025 19.894 12.316 32.209 21.682 13.803 35.485 23.958 16.147 40.106 2026 21.014 12.988 34.003 23.053 14.625 37.678 25.678 17.368 43.046 2027 22.195 13.691 35.887 24.506 15.488 39.994 27.513 18.669 46.182 2028 23.439 14.426 37.865 26.049 16.394 42.443 29.472 20.053 49.525 2029 24.750 15.194 39.944 27.686 17.346 45.031 31.563 21.528 53.091 2030 26.132 15.996 42.128 29.423 18.345 47.768 33.790 23.099 56.889Average Annual Growth Rate2009-15 8,8% 14,7% 10,8% 9,5% 15,4% 11,5% 9,9% 15,9% 12,0%2015-20 7,2% 7,5% 7,3% 8,0% 8,8% 8,3% 8,7% 9,8% 9,1%2020-30 6,0% 5,8% 5,9% 6,5% 6,3% 6,4% 7,4% 7,9% 7,6%Source: Nathan Associates Inc. 23
  24. 24. • High Growth Scenario Forecast of Total Cargo Handled at Indonesian Ports, 2009-2030 (000’s tons) 2009 2015 2020 2030 Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of TradeType of cargo Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic TotalGeneral Cargo 32,840 110,859 143,699 40,369 152,858 193,226 46,799 190,488 237,287 59,906 268,703 328,609Container 61,000 27,223 88,222 109,370 67,360 176,730 166,030 107,560 273,590 337,900 230,990 568,890Dry Bulk 312,852 255,914 568,766 503,082 346,293 849,375 575,209 449,686 1,024,895 758,098 634,983 1,393,081 Cement 144 14,941 15,085 6,706 22,676 29,382 9,188 30,345 39,533 15,694 53,327 69,021 Coal 279,303 139,349 418,652 314,541 203,330 517,871 330,586 272,101 602,687 365,172 365,681 730,854 Iron Ore 10,531 91 10,623 151,783 400 152,184 198,375 1,000 199,375 323,131 2,479 325,611 Fertilizer 5,162 30,665 35,828 7,532 41,095 48,627 9,845 52,448 62,293 16,036 85,433 101,468 Grain 3,832 2,343 6,175 4,444 2,717 7,161 4,907 3,000 7,907 5,981 3,657 9,638 Other Dry Bulk 13,879 60,124 74,003 18,075 76,076 94,150 22,309 90,791 113,101 32,083 124,406 156,489Liquid Bulk 136,723 39,349 176,072 184,105 55,769 239,873 231,466 74,563 306,029 360,024 121,407 481,430 Petroleum & Products 91,110 385 91,495 122,097 516 122,612 152,155 643 152,797 236,291 998 237,290 CPO 22,438 38,485 60,923 31,829 54,592 86,421 42,594 73,057 115,651 69,381 119,002 188,383 Other Liquid Bulk 23,175 479 23,654 30,179 661 30,840 36,718 863 37,581 54,352 1,406 55,758Total 543,415 433,346 976,761 836,925 622,280 1,459,205 1,019,504 822,298 1,841,802 1,515,928 1,256,082 2,772,010Average annual growth rate (%)General Cargo - - - 3.5 5.5 5.1 3.0 4.5 4.2 2.5 3.5 3.3Container - - - 10.2 16.3 12.3 8.7 9.8 9.1 7.4 7.9 7.6Dry Bulk - - - 8.2 5.2 6.9 2.7 5.4 3.8 2.8 3.5 3.1 Cement - - - 89.7 7.2 11.8 6.5 6.0 6.1 5.5 5.8 5.7 Coal - - - 2.0 6.5 3.6 1.0 6.0 3.1 1.0 3.0 1.9 Iron Ore - - - 56.0 27.9 55.8 5.5 20.1 5.6 5.0 9.5 5.0 Fertilizer - - - 6.5 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Grain - - - 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Other Dry Bulk - - - 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.3Liquid Bulk - - - Petroleum & Products - - - 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 CPO - - - 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Other Liquid Bulk - - - 4.5 5.5 4.5 4.0 5.5 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.0Total - - - 7.5 6.2 6.9 4.0 5.7 4.8 4.0 4.3 4.2Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text. 24
  25. 25. • Low Growth Scenario Forecast of Total Cargo Handled at Indonesian Ports, 2009-2030 (000’s tons) 2009 2015 2020 2030 Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of TradeType of cargo Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic TotalGeneral Cargo 32,840 110,859 143,699 36,983 140,272 177,256 40,434 166,600 207,033 46,009 203,084 249,092Container 61,000 27,223 88,222 103,080 63,280 166,360 145,850 90,790 236,640 261,320 159,960 421,280Dry Bulk 312,852 255,914 568,766 289,314 314,218 603,532 261,307 385,699 647,005 217,576 545,654 763,230 Cement 144 14,941 15,085 182 19,458 19,640 227 24,248 24,475 352 37,656 38,008 Coal 279,303 139,349 418,652 247,419 181,468 428,887 212,467 231,605 444,072 156,678 342,832 499,510 Iron Ore 10,531 91 10,623 13,714 123 13,837 16,288 156 16,445 19,855 267 20,123 Fertilizer 5,162 30,665 35,828 6,723 38,802 45,524 8,101 46,084 54,185 11,427 63,146 74,573 Grain 3,832 2,343 6,175 4,215 2,577 6,792 4,541 2,776 7,317 5,270 3,222 8,492 Other Dry Bulk 13,879 60,124 74,003 17,061 71,791 88,852 19,683 80,829 100,512 23,993 98,530 122,524Liquid Bulk 136,723 39,349 176,072 172,491 50,354 222,846 206,052 59,813 265,866 284,072 80,423 364,496 Petroleum & Products 91,110 385 91,495 115,284 487 115,771 138,917 587 139,504 195,956 828 196,784 CPO 22,438 38,485 60,923 28,720 49,261 77,981 34,111 58,507 92,617 45,842 78,628 124,470 Other Liquid Bulk 23,175 479 23,654 28,488 606 29,094 33,025 720 33,745 42,275 968 43,242Total 543,415 433,346 976,761 601,869 568,125 1,169,994 653,643 702,902 1,356,544 808,977 989,121 1,798,098Average annual growth rate (%)General Cargo - - - 2.0 4.0 3.6 1.8 3.5 3.2 1.3 2.0 1.9Container - - - 9.1 15.1 11.2 7.2 7.5 7.3 6.0 5.8 5.9Dry Bulk - - - (1.3) 3.5 1.0 (2.0) 4.2 1.4 (1.8) 3.5 1.7 Cement - - - 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Coal - - - (2.0) 4.5 0.4 (3.0) 5.0 0.7 (3.0) 4.0 1.2 Iron Ore - - - 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.5 5.0 3.5 2.0 5.5 2.0 Fertilizer - - - 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 Grain - - - 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Other Dry Bulk - - - 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0Liquid Bulk - - - Petroleum & Products - - - 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 CPO - - - 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 Other Liquid Bulk - - - 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5Total - - - 1.7 4.6 3.1 1.7 4.3 3.0 2.2 3.5 2.9Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text. • Forecast of Indonesian Total Container Traffic under Alternative Growth Scenarios, 2015-2030 (000’s TEU) 60,000 Low Growth 000s TEUs Base Case 50,000 High Growth 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year 25
  26. 26. • Forecast of Total Indonesian Port Traffic by Cargo Type Under Alternative Growth Scenarios, 2015- 2030 (000’s tons) 3,000,000 Dry Bulk000s tons Liquid Bulk 2,500,000 Container 2,000,000 General Cargo 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Low Base High Low Base High Low Base High 2015 2020 2030 Year 26

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