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Poll Gives Donnelly 12-point lead

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A new poll gives JOe Donnelly a 12-point lead over Republican challenger Mike Braun, but that number changes depending on whether Donnelly votes to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Published in: News & Politics
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Poll Gives Donnelly 12-point lead

  1. 1. IN US Senate Survey Conducted 7/31-8/7/18 1,420 Respondents Likely 2018 General Election Voters Margin of Error: +/- 2.6 Response Rate: 1.33% Confidence: 95% Response Distribution: 50%
  2. 2. IN Trump Approval 3.8% 20.9% 29.1% 28.7% 17.5% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% No Opinion Strongly Disapprove Disapprove Strongly Approve Approve Column %
  3. 3. IN Senate Ballot Test 10.8% 38.6% 50.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Undecided Braun (R) Donnelly (D) Column %
  4. 4. If Donnelly Votes For Kavanaugh 22.2% 38.5% 39.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Undecided Braun (R) Donnelly (D) Column %
  5. 5. If Donnelly Votes Against Kavanaugh 16.7% 38.0% 45.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Undecided Braun (R) Donnelly (D) Column %
  6. 6. GENDER 53.5% 46.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Female Male Column % Female Male
  7. 7. AGE 35.0% 12.0% 18.8% 15.5% 11.5% 7.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 62+ 56-61 46-55 36-45 26-35 18-25 Column %
  8. 8. CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 10.4% 8.7% 11.9% 10.4% 14.4% 10.7% 10.1% 10.8% 12.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Column %
  9. 9. Methodology Likely voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters modeled to reflect their likeliness of participating in the general election based on past election participation and registration date, as well as demographic, geographic, and consumer information. In excess of 90,000 households were contacted over the duration of the poll. Live interviewers were used to contact participants and additional email surveys were used to enrich the voter sample. The calls are placed to randomly-selected cell phone and landline numbers from our modeled universe through a stratified process that ensures appropriate geographic and demographic representation. These calls were placed from 6:00pm to 8:30pm local time from Tuesday, July 31st through Tuesday, August 7th. The email surveys were also used in order to identify and compensate for possible social desirability bias. Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the geographic and demographic breakdown of expected Indiana 2018 general election participants. Final results are based on these weights in order to address non-response bias.
  10. 10. Ballot Tests: Gender and Age August 11, 2018 Generated by MarketSight�
  11. 11. Table of Contents Uncategorized Variables Page Variable 3 Senate Ballot Test * If the election for US Senate was held today, for whom would you vote? Ballot Tests: Gender and Age Generated: August 11, 2018 * Denotes variable with statistically significant findings 2
  12. 12. Ballot Tests: Gender and Age Generated: August 11, 2018 Senate Ballot Test If the election for US Senate was held today, for whom would you vote? * Statistically significant result within this Column Variable at 95% Significant Difference within Groups: ABC / DEFGHIJ. Upper case at 95% Weight Variable = 2018 Proj + Phones Weighted GENDER AGE RANGE Total Female (A) Male (B) Total 18-25 (C) 26-35 (D) 36-45 (E) 46-55 (F) 56-61 (G) 62+ (H) * * Joe Donnelly Column % 50.7% 46.9% 55.1% A 50.7% 9.0% 72.3% DFG 15.8% 28.0% DF 64.6% DFG 74.9% DFGH Mike Braun Column % 38.6% 38.5% 38.6% 38.6% 89.3% EFGHI 12.1% H 79.1% EGHI 54.9% EHI 1.1% 23.0% EH Undecided Column % 10.8% 14.7% B 6.3% 10.8% 1.7% 15.6% DFI 5.1% I 17.1% DFI 34.3% DEFGI 2.0% 3
  13. 13. Ballot Test Crosstabs: Trump Approval August 11, 2018 Generated by MarketSight�
  14. 14. Table of Contents Uncategorized Variables Page Variable 3 Senate Ballot Test * If the election for US Senate was held today, for whom would you vote? Ballot Test Crosstabs: Trump Approval Generated: August 11, 2018 * Denotes variable with statistically significant findings 2
  15. 15. Ballot Test Crosstabs: Trump Approval Generated: August 11, 2018 Senate Ballot Test If the election for US Senate was held today, for whom would you vote? * Statistically significant result within this Column Variable at 95% Significant Difference within Groups: ABCDEF. Upper case at 95% Weight Variable = 2018 Proj + Phones Weighted Trump Approval Total Approve (A) Strongly Approve (B) Disapprove (C) Strongly Disapprove (D) No Opinion (E) * Joe Donnelly Column % 50.7% 2.6% 10.0% A 93.2% ABE 96.3% ABE 2.7% Mike Braun Column % 38.6% 69.2% CDE 89.4% ACDE 2.6% D 0.1% 0.1% Undecided Column % 10.8% 28.3% BCD 0.6% 4.2% B 3.6% B 97.1% ABCD 3
  16. 16. Ballot Test Crosstabs: Congressional District August 11, 2018 Generated by MarketSight�
  17. 17. Table of Contents Uncategorized Variables Page Variable 3 Senate Ballot Test * If the election for US Senate was held today, for whom would you vote? Ballot Test Crosstabs: Congressional District Generated: August 11, 2018 * Denotes variable with statistically significant findings 2
  18. 18. Ballot Test Crosstabs: Congressional District Generated: August 11, 2018 Senate Ballot Test If the election for US Senate was held today, for whom would you vote? * Statistically significant result within this Column Variable at 95% Significant Difference within Groups: ABCDEFGHIJ. Upper case at 95% Weight Variable = 2018 Proj + Phones Weighted CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Total 1 (A) 2 (B) 3 (C) 4 (D) 5 (E) 6 (F) 7 (G) 8 (H) 9 (I) * Joe Donnelly Column % 50.7% 93.3% BEFGHI 65.9% EFHI 88.9% BEFGHI 91.7% BEFGHI 5.0% 45.7% EHI 59.0% EFHI 19.9% EI 3.4% Mike Braun Column % 38.6% 6.6% D 2.7% 6.2% D 0.7% 78.1% ABCDFG 53.4% ABCDG 25.5% ABCD 79.7% ABCDFG 79.2% ABCDFG Undecided Column % 10.8% 0.0% 31.4% ACDEFGHI 4.9% AFH 7.5% AFH 16.8% ACDFH 0.9% 15.6% ACDFH 0.3% 17.4% ACDFH 3
  19. 19. Senate Ballot Test vs Donnelly Votes Yes August 10, 2018 Generated by MarketSight�
  20. 20. Table of Contents Uncategorized Variables Page Variable 3 Donnelly Votes Yes * If Senator Joe Donnelly voted to confirm President Trump's Supreme Court pick of Brett Kavanaugh before the election, for whom would you vote? 4 Trump Approval * How do you feel about the way Donald Trump is Handling is job as President? Senate Ballot Test vs Donnelly Votes Yes Generated: August 10, 2018 * Denotes variable with statistically significant findings 2
  21. 21. Senate Ballot Test vs Donnelly Votes Yes Generated: August 10, 2018 Donnelly Votes Yes If Senator Joe Donnelly voted to confirm President Trump's Supreme Court pick of Brett Kavanaugh before the election, for whom would you vote? * Statistically significant result within this Column Variable at 95% Significant Difference within Groups: ABCD. Upper case at 95% Weight Variable = 2018 Proj + Phones Weighted Senate Ballot Test Total Joe Donnelly (A) Mike Braun (B) Undecided (C) * Joe Donnelly Column % 39.4% 73.8% BC 1.5% 12.6% B Mike Braun Column % 38.5% 0.1% 96.1% AC 12.7% A Undecided Column % 22.2% 26.1% B 2.4% 74.7% AB 3
  22. 22. Senate Ballot Test vs Donnelly Votes Yes Generated: August 10, 2018 Trump Approval How do you feel about the way Donald Trump is Handling is job as President? * Statistically significant result within this Column Variable at 95% Significant Difference within Groups: ABCD. Upper case at 95% Weight Variable = 2018 Proj + Phones Weighted Senate Ballot Test Total Joe Donnelly (A) Mike Braun (B) Undecided (C) * Approve Column % 17.5% 0.9% 31.4% A 46.0% AB Strongly Approve Column % 28.7% 5.7% C 66.6% AC 1.6% Disapprove Column % 29.1% 53.6% BC 2.0% 11.4% B Strongly Disapprove Column % 20.9% 39.6% BC 0.1% 6.9% B No Opinion Column % 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 34.0% AB 4
  23. 23. Senate Ballot Test vs Donnelly Votes No August 10, 2018 Generated by MarketSight�
  24. 24. Table of Contents Uncategorized Variables Page Variable 3 Donnelly Votes No * If Senator Joe Donnelly voted against President Trump's Supreme Court pick of Brett Kavanaugh before the election, for whom would you vote? Senate Ballot Test vs Donnelly Votes No Generated: August 10, 2018 * Denotes variable with statistically significant findings 2
  25. 25. Senate Ballot Test vs Donnelly Votes No Generated: August 10, 2018 Donnelly Votes No If Senator Joe Donnelly voted against President Trump's Supreme Court pick of Brett Kavanaugh before the election, for whom would you vote? * Statistically significant result within this Column Variable at 95% Significant Difference within Groups: ABCD. Upper case at 95% Weight Variable = 2018 Proj + Phones Weighted Senate Ballot Test Total Joe Donnelly (A) Mike Braun (B) Undecided (C) * Joe Donnelly Column % 45.3% 85.2% BC 0.9% 15.8% B Mike Braun Column % 38.0% 0.1% 98.3% AC 0.9% Undecided Column % 16.7% 14.7% B 0.7% 83.3% AB 3
  26. 26. Donnelly Votes No vs Donnelly Votes Yes August 10, 2018 Generated by MarketSight�
  27. 27. Table of Contents Uncategorized Variables Page Variable 3 Donnelly Votes Yes * If Senator Joe Donnelly voted to confirm President Trump's Supreme Court pick of Brett Kavanaugh before the election, for whom would you vote? Donnelly Votes No vs Donnelly Votes Yes Generated: August 10, 2018 * Denotes variable with statistically significant findings 2
  28. 28. Donnelly Votes No vs Donnelly Votes Yes Generated: August 10, 2018 Donnelly Votes Yes If Senator Joe Donnelly voted to confirm President Trump's Supreme Court pick of Brett Kavanaugh before the election, for whom would you vote? * Statistically significant result within this Column Variable at 95% Significant Difference within Groups: ABCD. Upper case at 95% Weight Variable = 2018 Proj + Phones Weighted Donnelly Votes No Total Joe Donnelly (A) Mike Braun (B) Undecided (C) * Joe Donnelly Column % 39.4% 74.3% BC 0.7% 32.7% B Mike Braun Column % 38.5% 0.1% 97.4% AC 8.3% A Undecided Column % 22.2% 25.6% B 1.9% 59.0% AB 3

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