Ignite Budapest #2 - Why everyone should still be pooping their pants about the world economy

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Erik D'Amato presents "Why everyone should still be pooping their pants about the world economy" at Ignite Budapest #2, Cotton Club, Budapest, Hungary, 10 November 2009.

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Ignite Budapest #2 - Why everyone should still be pooping their pants about the world economy

  1. 1. Some semi-random signs the global economy is in even worse shape than most people think.
  2. 2. Nearly one-third of the Q3 growth in GDP in the US was due to the one-time "cash for clunkers" program.
  3. 3. According to statistics from the White House website recovery.gov, each job "saved" or "created" by the stimulus cost more than $300,000.
  4. 4. Last Friday's US unemployment figure - 10.2%,the highest since 1983 - does not count part-timers looking for a full-time job, or those who have given up.
  5. 5. Official unemployment in Spain hit 19.3% in September.
  6. 6. Unemployment in Germany is expected to rise again next year as costly work-support schemes are wound down.
  7. 7. Crude oil prices have jumped almost 150% since January despite the deep recession.
  8. 8. Dubai World is in talks with banks to reschedule at least $12 billion of debts it cannot pay.
  9. 9. So-called "excess reserves" parked by American banks with the Federal Reserve now total $900 billion.
  10. 10. Central banks in Asia are currently accumulating roughly $600 billion a year in reserves because of trade surpluses with the West.
  11. 11. The IMF says that Japan's gross public debt will reach 218% of GDP this year, and nearly 250% in 2014.
  12. 12. The personal savings rate in Japan has collapsed from 15% in 1990 to about 2% now.
  13. 13. UK households owe an average of £58,340 in private debts, and one Briton is declared bankrupt or insolvent every 4 minutes.
  14. 14. The UK's Office for National Statistics last week estimated that Britain's various bailouts will add £1.5 trillion to the national debt, equal to a further £24,000 for every person in the country.
  15. 15. Roughly $2 trillion in US commercial real estate mortgages will mature between now and 2013.
  16. 16. Government-guaranteed mortgages accounted for 98% of total mortgage-backed securities issued in the US in Q3 2009.
  17. 17. For the first time since the 1930s, individual taxes paid by Americans are not covering federal transfer payments.
  18. 18. US federal tax revenue from all sources would have to increase by 60% just to balance the 2010 budget.
  19. 19. Over the next four years the U.S. government must roll over $3.4 trillion in debt.
  20. 20. "We're going to run out of cash in four and a half weeks" - New York state Gov. David Paterson, Nov. 9

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