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242047532 أزمة-الرهن-العقاري-وأثرها-في-الأزمة-المالية-العالمية-pdf

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242047532 أزمة-الرهن-العقاري-وأثرها-في-الأزمة-المالية-العالمية-pdf

  1. 1. ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻌﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺴ‬‫ـﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻭﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬: ‫ﻤﺫﻜﺭﺓ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻨﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻀﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻓ‬‫ـ‬‫ﺭﻉ‬:‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁــﺎﻟﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬:‫ﺇﺸﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘ‬‫ﺎﺫ‬‫ﺓ‬: ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺩ‬‫ﺒﻥ‬‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺼﺩﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺠﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺃ‬.‫ﺩ‬.‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﻟﻔﻲ‬.....................‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩ‬.‫ﻤﻠﻴﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺩﻴﻘﻲ‬....................‫ﻤﻘﺭﺭ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺴﻌﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺎﺏ‬....................‫ﻋﻀﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺴﻜﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻤﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻥ‬...................‫ﻋﻀﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺩ‬.‫ﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬.......................‫ﻋﻀﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ 2009/2010 ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ bensaidamine.yolasite.com bensaidamine.yolasite.com bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  2. 2. ‫ﺷﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺠﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻭﻓﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺸﻜﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺤﺎﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﷲ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‬. ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻟﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﻴل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺘﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺸﺭﻓﻨﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺎﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻠﻴﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺩﻴﻘﻲ‬. ‫ﻷ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﺯﻴل‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺘﻘﺩﻡ‬‫ﻗﺒﻭﻟﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻀﺎﺀ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﻤﺕ‬‫ﻟﻲ‬. ‫ﻁﻴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻜﻠﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻭ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻋﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺠﻤﻴل‬ ‫ﺃﺘﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬.
  3. 3. ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺪﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻴﻤﻴﻥ‬‫ﻭﺠل‬ ‫ﻋﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎ‬ ‫؛‬ ‫ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺭﺒﻴﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺤﻤﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺭﺏ‬.
  4. 4. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬ bensaidamine.yolasite.com bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  5. 5. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬.............................................................................................................................................................. I ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻤﺔ‬‫ﺸﻜﺭ‬............................................................................... ‫ﺍﻹﻫﺩﺍﺀ‬................................................................................... ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺭﺱ‬.................................................................................. ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬............................................................................ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬..................................................................... ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬............................................................................ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬............................................................................‫ﺃ‬-‫ﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬:‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬..................................................................................2 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍ‬‫ﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬...........................................3 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬...............................................3 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬:‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬....................................7 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬.................................15 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬1929-1933...........................15 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺃﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ‬1987.................................................20 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬..................................26 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬:‫ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬..................................26 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬..............................43 ‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬...............................................................................51 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬:‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬................................................................................53 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬:‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ‬‫ﻟﻠ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬........................54 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل‬.....................................................54 ‫ﺍﻟﺜ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﺎﻨﻲ‬:‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺁﻟﻴﺔ‬.......................63 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬...............................................74 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ‬............................................74 ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ‬..........................................80 bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  6. 6. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬.............................................................................................................................................................. II ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭ‬................................92 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ‬..........................92 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻔﺤﺎل‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬.................................98 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺝ‬ ‫ﺴﺒل‬.....................................104 ‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬................................................................................110 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬..................................................................................112 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬....................113 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬.....................................................113 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬...................................................120 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬.................................................124 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬..................................................130 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬............................130 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬.....................................136 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻱ‬...................................142 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ‬‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬........................................145 ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬..................................145 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬............................................150 ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﻙ‬..............................154 ‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬...............................................................................165 ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺘﻤﺔ‬............................................................................166 ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬............................................................................171 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬.............................................................................189 bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  7. 7. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬.............................................................................................................................................................. III ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﻭل‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬ 1.1‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬.............................12 2.1‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬‫ﺨﻼل‬‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬1987...22 3.1‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺒﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬‫ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺭ‬..............32 1.2‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺭﻭﻕ‬..60 2.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺯ‬............................................67 3.2‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬‫ﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ‬200696 4.2‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻜﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺔ‬MBS.................97 5.2 ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‬ MBS‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬2006...............................................................97 6.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﻤﻭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬)CDO.....................................(102 7.2‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﺍﺨﻴل‬ ‫ﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬)2006/2007(...............104 8.2‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬................................108 1.3‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬.....................................117 2.3‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬.......................................................127 3.3‫ﺍﻟﺩ‬ ‫ﻷﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭل‬..........................128 4.3‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬7G....................................132 5.3 ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺨﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬.....................................................................164 bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  8. 8. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬.............................................................................................................................................................. IV ‫ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ 1.1‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬...........................................................14 1.2‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬............................................................59 2.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬..............................................61 3.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬.........................70 4.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬..................................................................70 5.2‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ‬M1...............................................................75 6.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ‬.......................................76 7.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬.................................................................77 8.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬........................................78 9.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬..............................................................79 10.2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬...............................................83 11.2‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬....................................................86 12.2‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺸﺭﻴﺢ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬..................................88 13.2‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻠﺴل‬.....................................................91 14.2‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺯل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬..............................................99 15.2‫ﺇﻓﻼﺱ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ‬...........................100 1.3‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬.......................................114 2.3‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﺔ‬........................122 3.3‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬..........................................126 4.3‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬..........................................129 5.3‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬................................................132 6.3‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬...............................134 7.3‫ﺨﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬.................150 bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  9. 9. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﺮﺱ‬.............................................................................................................................................................. V ‫اﻟﻤﻼﺣﻖ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ‬ 1‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ‬........................................................172 2‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬....................................181 3‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬...................................................................182 4‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺯل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬...................183 5‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺯل‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬............184 6‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬‫ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬.........................................185 7‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬.................................................186 8‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬...........................................................187 9‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬..........................................................188 bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  10. 10. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬ bensaidamine.yolasite.com bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  11. 11. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬..................................................................................................................................................... ‫أ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺴﻰ‬‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ‬‫ﻭﺘﻌﺩﺩ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺨﻼل‬‫ﺤﻘﺒﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬‫ﻤﺜﻴﺭﺓ‬‫ﻟﻠﻘﻠﻕ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬،‫ﻭﺘﺭﺠـﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬‫ﺤﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﻭﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ‬‫ﻭﻫﺩﺩﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤـﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭل‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﻭﻋﺩﻭﻯ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻟﺘﺸﻤل‬‫ﺩﻭﻻ‬،‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﻜﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻩ‬‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬‫ﻭﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺠﻬﺎ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬. ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ‬‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺘﻜﺭﺭﺕ‬‫ﻭﺘﻼﺤﻘﺕ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤ‬‫ﻓﺸﻤﻠﺕ‬‫ﺩﻭل‬‫ﺸﺭﻕ‬‫ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‬‫ﻭﺭﻭﺴـﻴﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﺯﻴـل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺠﻨﺘﻴﻥ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﻴﻙ‬‫ﻭﺒﻘﻴﺔ‬‫ﺩﻭل‬‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺃﺨﺭ‬،‫ﻯ‬‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻨﺎﻤﻴ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬‫ﻤﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺼ‬‫ﺨﺼﻭ‬‫ﻤﻊ‬‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺭﻜﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬‫ﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬،‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬‫ﺃﻴﻀـﺎ‬‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻀﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﻫﻲ‬‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬‫ﻤﻊ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬‫ﻋﺒﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺼ‬‫ﺨﺼﻭ‬‫ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ‬‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠـﻕ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬. ‫ﺸﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬‫ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‬2008،‫ﻤﺴﺒﻭﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ‬‫ﺃﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﺼـﺤﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐـﺫﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺒﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻷﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬)‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬(‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻤﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻀﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻡ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻋل‬ ‫ﺯﺍﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬. ‫ﺍﻟﺤـﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﺴـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺩ‬ ،‫ﻻﺤﺘﻭﺍﺌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺫﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﻷﻥ‬‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺴﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺨﻭل‬‫ﺤﺼل‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﻁﺅ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺴـﺎﺒﻘﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠـﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺓ‬. ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ‬‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﻋﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻨﻪ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴـﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺇﺸﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺒﻠﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﺎﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬،‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﺀﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘـﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  12. 12. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬..................................................................................................................................................... ‫ب‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻔﺭﻉ‬‫ﻋﻥ‬‫ﺍﻹﺸﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺌﻠﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬: ‫ﻜﻴﻑ‬‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻹﻓﻼﺱ‬‫ﺘـﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺴﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺨﺭ‬‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﻥ‬‫؟‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ؟‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ؟‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﺨﻁﻁ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬‫ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻫـل‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺩﺍﺌل‬ ‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺯﺯ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻭﻗﺎﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺴﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل؟‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺌﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺩ‬: ‫ﻟ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﻓـﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻭﻟﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻔﺘﺎﺤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ‬ ،‫؛‬ ‫ﹰ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺘﻁـﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﺎﺒل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻓﺭﺍﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﺎﺒـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴـﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸـﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ؛‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺒﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ؛‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﻠﻙ‬‫ﻗﻨﺎﺘ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻜﻘﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬. ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺄﺘﻲ‬‫ﻨﺘﺠـﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﻭﻤﻨـﺫ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺒﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺫﻟﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﻡ‬ ،‫ﻭﺘﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺘﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻘﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻨﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ،‫ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺨﺭﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬.‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘـﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﻼﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺨل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬. bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  13. 13. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬..................................................................................................................................................... ‫ت‬ ‫ﺃ‬‫ﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬: ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓـﺔ‬ ‫ﺜـﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸـﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬‫ﻤـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ؛‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻠﻴﻁ‬‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺒـﺭﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬. ‫ﺭﺴﻡ‬‫ﺨﺎﺭﻁﺔ‬‫ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬‫ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤـﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺘـﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻐﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻜﺭﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬‫ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬‫ﺍﻟـﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻻﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬. ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻺﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬‫ﺴﺌﻠﺔ‬‫ﺍﺨﺘ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﺎﺭ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻗﺘﻀ‬‫ﺘﻨـﺎﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﻓﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺙ‬‫ﺒﻌﺩﻫﺎ‬،‫ﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﻟﻴﻁﻭﻯ‬‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺘﻤﺔ‬. ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺠﺭﻯ‬:‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨ‬‫ﺃﻤـ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻅـﺭﻱ‬‫ﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺜﺎ‬‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺠ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻥ‬‫ﺎ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬‫ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺌﺞ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴـﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﺯﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ‬.‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻔﺼل‬‫ﻓﻘـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺩﺙ‬‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻟﻠـﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻨﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺠﺯﺀ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟـﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﻋﻼﺝ‬‫ﺘﺘﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺭ‬. bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  14. 14. ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬..................................................................................................................................................... ‫ث‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬‫ﻜﺸﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل‬‫ﻋﻥ‬‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘـﺎل‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﺄﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬‫ﻓﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻫﺫ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﻩ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺼﻌﻴﺩ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬‫ﻭﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ‬ ‫ﺴﺒل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬. bensaidamine.yolasite.com bensaidamine.yolasite.com bensaidamine.yolasite.com
  15. 15. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬
  16. 16. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 2 ‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺸﻜل‬‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻅـﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬‫ﻤﺜﻴـﺭﺓ‬‫ﻟﻠﻘﻠـﻕ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤـﺎﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠـﻑ‬ ‫ﻟـﺩﻯ‬ ،‫ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﺭﻴﻥ‬‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬‫ﻜﺎﻨـﺕ‬‫ﺤـﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﻭﺨﻁﻴـﺭﺓ‬‫ﻭﻫـﺩﺩﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭل‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺒـﺎﻷﺨﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻴـﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻸﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬. ‫ﻭﺩﻭﺭ‬ ،‫ﻭﻤﺴـﺒﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺴـﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺭﻓـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﻔﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻌل‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺝ‬.‫ﻭ‬‫ﺴ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﺎﻭل‬‫ﺒﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻤـﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫـﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁـﺭﻕ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬‫ﺘـﻡ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻘﺴـ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺤـﺙ‬ ‫ﺜـﻼﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼـل‬ ‫ﻫـﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ‬: ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ؛‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ؛‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬.
  17. 17. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 3 ‫ﺍﻟ‬‫ﻤﺒﺤﺚ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻭﻝ‬:‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ‬‫ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬‫ﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻀﻊ‬،‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬،‫ﻭﻓـﻲ‬‫ﻫـﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺤﺙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺕ‬. ‫ﺍﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺩ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻀﻴﻊ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭﻻ‬‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬،‫ﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬـﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬‫ﻟﺫﺍ‬ ،‫ﺴﻨﺘﻁﺭﻕ‬‫ﻟﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ‬،‫ﻭﺨﺼﺎﺌﺼﻬﺎ‬. ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬:‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺤﺩﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‬"crise"=)‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬(‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬"crisis"‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬‫ﺒـﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺤﺩﺭ‬‫ﻤـﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻨﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻜﺘﺏ‬‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬"krisis"‫ﻭﻓﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻭﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻗﺎﻤﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺤﺴﺏ‬Le Robert historique‫ﻜﻠﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬ "‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬"‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﻼﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬.1 ‫ﻭﻴﻅﻬﺭ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟ‬،‫ﻤﻭﺠﺯ‬‫ﻗﺒل‬‫ﺩﺨﻭل‬‫ﻋﻠﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻜﻠﻤﺔ‬"‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬" ‫ﻤﺕ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﹸﺨ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﺴ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‬‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﺜﻡ‬‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ‬‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﻤﻨﻬـﺎ‬‫ﺍﻷﺨـﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻡ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺒﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻥ‬‫ﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬"‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬"‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‬‫ﺍﻷﻜﺎﺩﻴﻤﻲ‬‫ﺇﻻ‬‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺃﻏﻠﺏ‬‫ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ‬.‫ﻭﺒﻌـﺩ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﺘﺘﺒـﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺀ‬‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬‫ﻟﻨﺎ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬"‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬"‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬‫ﻟﻌل‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺃﺒﺭﺯﻫﺎ‬‫ﻤﺎ‬‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬:2 ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬‫ﻋﻨﻴﻑ‬‫ﻴﻅﻬﺭ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﺼﺤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺠﻴﺩﺓ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ‬‫ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬‫ﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﻤﺭﻀﻴﺔ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬‫ﻓﺎﺼﻠﺔ‬‫ﻭﺨﻁﺭﺓ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬‫ﻭﻋﺎﺌﻕ‬‫ﻤﺅﻗﺕ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﻨﺯﺍﻉ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼل‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‬‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ‬‫ﺒﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬‫ﻭﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬‫ﺃﻭ‬‫ﻗﻠﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺸﻲﺀ‬‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬‫ﻜﺎﻟﻘﻭل‬‫ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ‬‫ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻥ‬. 1 -‫ﺍﻟﺮﺯﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﻌﺒﺎﺱ‬‫ﺳﻌﻴﺪ‬-‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﲎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬‫؟‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺘﺎﺏ‬‫ﺎﳌ‬‫ﺇﺳـﻼﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺣﻠﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬-‫ﻣ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﲝـﺎﺙ‬ ‫ﺮﻛـﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﻼﻣﻲ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬-‫ﺟﺪﺓ‬)‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬(-‫ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ‬2009-‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬-5-6. 2 -‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺲ‬-‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺹ‬-9-10.
  18. 18. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 4 ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺸﺎﺸ‬‫ﺫﺍﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﺔ‬.‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺎ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻴﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻ‬ ‫ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ‬‫ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ‬.‫ﻭﺘﻌﺒﺭ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻔـﺎﺠﺊ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬‫ﺍﻹﺼﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ،/‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﺘﺩ‬.‫ﻤﺼـﻁﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﺴـﺘﻌﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻴـﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺓ‬1 ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﻴﺎﻨﺎ‬‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬‫ﻓﺭﻕ‬‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤـﺎ‬.‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺘـﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻷﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻤﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼل‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬‫ﺒﺎﻨﺘﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ‬.2 ‫ﻭ‬‫ﻨﺠﺩ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ‬)crise financière(‫ﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻷﻭل‬ ‫ﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬‫ﻻﺱ‬ ‫ﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻨـﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﺘﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﺯ‬)comte de Las cases) (1766-1842(‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬1823.3 ‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ‬‫ﻤﺸﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻴﺩﺭﻴﻙ‬Fredric Mishkan‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻓﻴﻘﻭل‬"‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺒـﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺀ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﺴـﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟـ‬ ‫ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺫﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺅﻻﺀ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬‫ﺍﻟﻔـﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀـل‬ ‫ﺩﻴﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬".4 ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﻠـﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬.‫ﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻘﻠل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬‫ﺍﻷﻓـﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴـﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﻩ‬ 1 -‫ﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬A.F.Burns‫ﻭ‬W.C.Mitchell‫ﻭﳘﺎ‬‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬‫ﺍﻥ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‬ ‫ﺎﳌﻜﺘﺐ‬)NBER(-‫ﻫ‬‫ﻲ‬‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ‬ ‫ﺣﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬-‫ﳑﺎﺛﻠ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬‫ﺔ‬-‫ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻌﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﰒ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻣﺔ‬. ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﻮ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ‬‫ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺲ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ‬.‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺷﻬﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ‬‫ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬Juglar‫ﺃﻭﺿﺢ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻧﺴﻲ‬‫ﻛﻠﻴﻤﻮﻥ‬‫ﺟﻮﻏﻼﺭ‬)1819-1905(‫ﰲ‬‫ﻋـﺎﻡ‬ 1860‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺗﺪﻭﻡ‬‫ﻛﻞ‬‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬‫ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬‫ﳌﺪﺓ‬‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺸﺮ‬.‫ﻭ‬‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬Kitchin‫ﻭ‬‫ﻫﻲ‬‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬‫ﺠﻭﺯﻴﻑ‬‫ﻜﻴﺘﺸﻴﻥ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻤـﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺒﻌﻴﻥ‬.‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻬﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻁﻭل‬‫ﺩﻱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺴﻲ‬‫ﻨﻴﻜﻭﻻ‬‫ﻜﻭﻨﺩﺭﺍﺘﻴﻴﻑ‬‫ﻭﺘﺴﻤﻰ‬‫ﺒـ‬‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬Kondratief‫ﺑﲔ‬50‫ﻭ‬60 ‫ﻋﺎﻣﺎ‬.‫ﺃﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ‬: BEITONE Alain - et autres - Dictionnaire des sciences économiques - Armand Colin - Paris- 2007- 2e édition- Pp - 125-126. 2 -‫ﻗﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺪ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﺪﺍﻋﻴﺎ‬-‫ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﲝﻮﺙ‬ ‫ﳎﻠﺔ‬-‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬-‫ﺭﺑﻴﻊ‬ 2009.‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻤﻌﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ‬ ‫ﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ‬.‫ﺹ‬8. 3 -‫ﺑﻠﻌﺒﺎﺱ‬‫ﺍﻟﺮﺯﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬‫ﺳﻌﻴﺪ‬-‫ﺳﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‬-‫ﺹ‬8. 4 -‫ﺍﻟﻄﻮﺧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﱯ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﺍﳌ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺃﺳﻴﻮﻁ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬- ‫ﺹ‬.1.
  19. 19. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 5 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺴﻁﺎﺀ‬.1 ‫ﻟﻤﺼـﻁﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺴـﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻤﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬’’‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺒﻌﻪ‬‘‘.2 ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬: ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺜﻼﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬:3 -‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬)‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬(:‫ﻫ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺠﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘﻭﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻟﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬%25.‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﺍ‬.‫ﺒﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴـﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﺝ‬ ‫ﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﻓﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﻌﺒﺭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬.‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴـﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘـﻪ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ‬‫ﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬. -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬:‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﻌـﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴـﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺤـﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬"‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬"‫ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ‬ ،"‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺎﻋﺔ‬"‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬.‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺭﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬ ‫ﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻴﺱ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬.‫ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻴﺼـﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺤـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺒـﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﺜﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻬﺒﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺒﺩﺃ‬ ،‫ﻟﺒﻴﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺄﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼل‬ ‫ﻓـ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻨﺤﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﺘﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﻨﻬﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻋﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺘﻪ‬.‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸـﺭ‬ ‫ﻴـﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬20%‫ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﺎ‬1929‫ﻭ‬1987. 1 ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ‬)‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﻭﻯ‬(-‫ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭ‬-‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬-2003-‫ﺹ‬32. 2 ‫ﻛﻮﺭﺗﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﺪ‬-‫ﺭﺯﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎﻝ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬،‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣـﻬﺎ‬،‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺃﺳﺒﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬-‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ‬–‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ‬-‫ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ‬-‫ﺑﻐﺪﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮﻡ‬–‫ﻳﻮﻣﻲ‬29/28‫ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻞ‬2009-‫ﺹ‬3 3 ‫ﻗﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﻴﺪ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ‬-‫ﺳﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‬-‫ﺹ‬.9‫ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ‬- BOYER Robert et autres - ‘les crises financières’ -Edition La Documentation française – Paris - 2004 - p13.
  20. 20. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 6 -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬:‫ﻏﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل‬ ‫ﺤﺠـﻡ‬ ‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻨ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺅﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠـﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻔﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﻤﺎ‬)‫ﺇﻋـﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬(‫ﺫﻋﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬)‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻏﻠﻕ‬ ،‫ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴﺩ‬.(.... ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ‬:1 ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬)Non-Performing Loans- NPL(‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻤـﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬10%‫؛‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬‫ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺡ‬‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬‫ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬2%‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ؛‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬)bank-runs(‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻴﻴل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺘـﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﻤـﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺨل‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺘﺩﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬)‫ﻫ‬‫ﺍﻹﻜﻭﺍﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﺘﻴﺭﻴﺔ‬1999‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺠﻨﺘﻴﻥ‬2002‫ﺒﻨـﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻏﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬1997.( ‫ﺴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬1998‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩﺭ‬158‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬54‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬1975-1997‫ﻭﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻤﺴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬.2 ‫ﻋﺭﻀـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟـﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺒـﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬. ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﺼﻨﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﻭﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺜﻼ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬.‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴـﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﺴﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺯﻴﺞ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺎل‬‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬‫ﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺼﺭﻑ‬.3 ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‬:‫ﺨ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬: ‫ﻭﺘﺒﺭﺯ‬‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬:4 ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺜﻬﺎ‬‫ﺒﺸﻜل‬‫ﻋﻨﻴﻑ‬،‫ﻭﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬‫ﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬‫؛‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺩ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺒﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺨل‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬‫ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬‫؛‬ 1 ‫ﺃﲪﺪ‬ ‫ﻃﻠﻔﺎﺡ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬-‫ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻬﺪ‬-‫ﺹ‬6.‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬:api.org-www.arab‫ﯾﻮم‬10-12-2008 2 BOYER Robert, op - cit - p 13. 3 BEITONE Alain et autres- op cit - p 115. 4 ‫ﻛﻮﺭﺗﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﺪ‬-‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬‫ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬-‫ﻣﺆﲤﺮ‬‫ﺩﻭﱄ‬‫ﺣﻮﻝ‬-‫ﺍ‬‫ﻋﻼﺟ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﻭﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬-‫ﺍﳉﻨﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬-‫ﲰﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺃﰊ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺘﻮﻥ‬)‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬(-‫ﻳﻮﻣﻲ‬13-14‫ﻣﺎﺭﺱ‬2009-‫ﺹ‬3.
  21. 21. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 7 ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬‫ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﻫﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺼل‬‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺸﻙ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﺌل‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔ‬‫ﻟﻤﺠﺎﺒﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻋﺔ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺨﻭﻑ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻭﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬‫؛‬ ‫ﺇ‬‫ﻥ‬‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬‫ﻴﺴﺘﻭﺠﺏ‬‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺎﺕ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬‫ﻭﺤﺴﻥ‬‫ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺇﻁﺎﺭ‬‫ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻲ‬‫ﻴﺘﺴﻡ‬‫ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎﻻﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬‫ﺘﺅﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻬﻡ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺤـﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬‫ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ‬‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬. ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﺏ‬:‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﺭﺠﻊ‬‫ﻫـﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ،‫ﺤﺩﻭﺜﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬،‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﺴﻡ‬‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻘﺎﺭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻭﻋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﻭﻜـﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟ‬‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬. ‫ﺃﻭﻻ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫ﺇﺭﺠﺎﻉ‬‫ﺘﺘﻀـﺎﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺴﺒﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬ ،‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﻴﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬:1 1.‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﺘـﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻨـﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫؛‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻓـﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺼـﺩﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﻐﻠﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼﺀ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺼﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﻡ‬‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﺕ‬75%‫ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺜ‬‫ﺕ‬‫ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩل‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺸﻬﺩﺕ‬ ،‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬10%‫ﻭﺸـﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻗﺒل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﻴـﺙ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻹﻜﻭﺍﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺯﻭﻴﻼ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜل‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬‫ﺘﻨﻭﻋﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﺼﻐﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ‬ ‫ﺕ‬. ‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫـﻡ‬ ‫ﺒل‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬‫ﻲ‬‫ﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ 1 -‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﱐ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺟﻲ‬-‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻄﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﲏ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬-‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬29‫ﻣﺎﻱ‬2004-‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬-‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻬﺪ‬ ‫ﺑ‬‫ﺎﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬-‫ﺹ‬4-8.)‫ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ‬(
  22. 22. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 8 ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬50-67‫ﺴـﺒﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬. ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬‫ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬. ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺩﺕ‬22‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻨـﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﺠﻨـﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺸﺭﻕ‬.‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺄﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‬. ‫ﺃﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬‫؛‬‫ﺤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬‫ﻤﻘـﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬.‫ﺁ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬‫ﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬. 2.‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﻟﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻕ‬،‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻀـﻐﻁ‬ ‫ﺫﻟـﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻐﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺤﺠﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺼﻐﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬،‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻤﻥ‬‫ﻴﺅ‬‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤـﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﺜـل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻨﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻜﺯ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻉ‬،‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺴـﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻜﺎﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻜﺎﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺴﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻜﺒـﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬.‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻟﺕ‬‫ﻤﺸـﻜﺎﻥ‬Mishkin 1994‫ﺴ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺒﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻻﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻪ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻕ‬ ،‫ﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺯﻭﻴﻼ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬.‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬: -‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺼﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬‫ﻤﺸـﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﻬـﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ‫ﻜـﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺒﻘﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺼﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺼﻭل‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻁﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺠﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻀﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬
  23. 23. ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‬..............................................................................:..........................‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﻭﻧﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ 9 ‫ﺍﻟﺼـﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺴـﻌﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟـﻰ‬ ‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻐﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺅﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬. -‫ﻭﻗﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬:‫ﻓﺘـﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺒﻌـﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺎﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﻓـﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺤﺭﻴـﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﻐﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻅل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻔﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻭﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻴﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬‫ﺕ‬‫ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬. ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﺭﺍﻓﻕ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺴﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺼﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺎ‬.‫ﻨﺎﺤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﺍﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬‫ﻴﺴـﺘﻁﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻭﻥ‬‫ﻭﻭﻗﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺤﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬.‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬‫ﺩﺨﻭل‬ ‫ﻌﻨﻲ‬‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﻴﺯﻴﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﻟﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻬﻴـﺄﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺒﻭل‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤـﺭﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺒـل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺩﻭﻥ‬ ، ‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬‫ﻟﻬ‬ ‫ﺘﺘﻭﻓﺭ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺒﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬. -‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺩﺨل‬:‫ﻤـﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻅﺎﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺼـﻴﺹ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻴﺴﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻟﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬. -‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻀﻌﻑ‬:‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬.‫ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘـﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻑ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤـﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻘﺘـﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻟﺘﺯﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺭﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺨـﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜـﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﻴﻕ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ، ‫ﺤﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻜﻤﺎ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻜﺎﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺎل‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬.‫ﻴﺄﺘﻴ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺘﺒﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻅﻬﺭ‬‫ﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ‬‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬‫ﺤـﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺯﻭﺍل‬ ‫ﺒﻤﺠـﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴـﺔ‬

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