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Scenarios - approaches for exploring urban futures

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Presentation to "future of cities" network, explaining diofferent types of scenario and describing work undertaken in context of Greater Manchester 2040+ see http://www.gm2040.com/ for more

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Scenarios - approaches for exploring urban futures

  1. 1. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Scenarios and Urban Futures Ian Miles Professor of Technological Innovation & Social Change Centre for Service Research & MIoIR Manchester Business School
  2. 2. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Working Definition of Scenario • Systematic, explicit account of possible future (of some object of attention). • May emphasise more or less the Future State or the Future History that results in this. • Scenarios differentiated from Profiles and Vignettes. Discussed in various locations, e.g. R Phaal and I Miles, 2009, Practice on Roadmapping, Prague, Technology Center of the Academy of Sciences ASCR, for UNIDO; ISBN 978-80-252-0109-1 online most recently at http://www.researchgate.net/publication/235217859_Practice_on_Roadmapping/fil e/9fcfd5107a3e69a63a.pdf?ev=pub_ext_doc_dl&docViewer=true
  3. 3. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR What do we want scenarios for? Policy insight: Explore possibilities, assumptions, alternatives that should be considered when strategies are developed Knowledge development: Sharing our own models of the issues and integrating at least some elements of these – Process benefits of scenario building as structuring conversations, dialogues. Research tool: Developing a tool for interviews and subsequent examination of specific topics, regions, sectors Presentation: Developing frameworks for communication and presentation of the study results
  4. 4. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Scenarios about what? About some “object of focus”- OOF – a domain or system that we wish to study (usually in order to influence or steer) – like a city. Often the OOF – its boundaries, its key features - is is poorly defined at the outset, and may not even be very meaningfully understood as a system: so some new drawing of boundaries of study may be helpful. Scenario processes help build and share models of the system, its dynamic processes, and possible evolution.
  5. 5. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Developing Scenarios “Genius” methods; informal (SF) and formal (interviews) Expert Groups Surveys: viewpoints in population (can be clustered) Models: shifting model parameters, or assumptions about relationships Gaming Scenario Workshops
  6. 6. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Three Broad Methods in Scenario Analysis Most common for Multiple Scenario Analysis: Departure: asking What if? - Exploratory, Outward, Driver or Event –based Destination: asking How Come? - Normative, Inward, Profile or Archetype – based Single Scenario Analysis: Desire: asking What and How? - Normative, Aspirational, Success Departures Destinations Destination
  7. 7. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Departures What if these forces continue to operate? this or that uncertain event occurs in the future? Typically use STEEPV or similar; identify critically important drivers, and examine consequences of (a) continued operation of relatively predictable drivers (b) alternative outcomes for less predictable drivers. Results in 2*2 matrix Other approaches possible (e.g. scenarios per driver) Develop Scenarios: storylines, how drivers operate and evolve, what outcome looks like. Departures
  8. 8. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR GM multiple scenarios Public / community & ecological values Global / macro & top- down dynamic Regional / local & bottom up dynamic Private enterprise / economic values Inspired by Foresight scenarios – conveniently described in F Berkhout and J Hertin, 2002, "Foresight Futures Scenarios: Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic Planning Tool", GMI newsletter at http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/pdfs/gmi37ber.pdf UK Future of Cities Working Paper 16: ‘Future of the Urban Environment’ (Joe Ravetz 2014).
  9. 9. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Comparative Appraisal ‘GLOBAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘LOCAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘GLOBAL COMMUNITY’ ‘LOCAL COMMUNITY’ Greater Manchester issues Privatized government: Airport axis grows rapidly to global hub. High growth, inequality increases. Breakup of AGMA etc: local govt as charity fund-raiser. Medium growth, inequality increases. Centralized govt (UK, EU & global): GM is centre of ‘Northern Arc’. Medium growth, inequality is reduced Decentralisation all around: new communities & lifestyles in rural areas. Low growth / high QOL, inequality levels. Social, community Fragmented society, growing tensions: High population growth Privatized society, retro social models: Medium pop. growth Managed society: aims for equality & integration: Low pop. growth Enclave society: aims for local self-determination: Medium pop. growth Technology, infrastructure global hi-tech supply chains: rapid ICT innovation local low-tech supply chains: ICT stable global hi-tech supply chains: rapid ICT innovation local low-tech supply chains: ICT stable Economic, employment Private firms, global labour market: High economic growth >3% Private firms, local labour market: Medium growth (2%) Social enterprise, global activities: Medium growth (2%) Social enterprise, local activities: Low economic growth <1% Environment, resources ESS degradation & pollution: Rapid climate change exploitation & privatisation of ESS: Rapid climate change conservation of ESS & public access: moderate climate change Conservation of ESS with privatisation: moderate climate change Policy, governance, institutions Corporate-driven governance: at global level Corporate driven governance: at local level Public & civil governance at global level Public & civil governance at local level Cultural, ethical Material growth, winner-takes- all globalized culture Material growth, winner-takes- all local autonomy Socio-cultural growth, ecological stewardship Socio-cultural growth, ecological stewardship Urban / spatial development Car-based urban sprawl, with sealed buildings: Counter-urbanisation Localized rural development with low-tech buildings: sprawl and sub-urbanisation Intensive large scale urban form with sealed buildings: Re-urbanisation Intensive small scale urban form, with low-tech eco- buildings: De-centralisation. UK system of cities London / SE continues to grow & dominate Breakup of UK and break- away from EU balanced development of UK regions & DAs Local-regional agenda, with out-migration from London Pressures & vulnerabilities in urban system Airports & other hubs are over-used with major pollution, urban heat island etc growing air & water pollution pressure from deregulation & privatisation Large compact cities generate pressure & vulnerability of infrastructure Pressures locally contained in enclaves Gaps & opportunities in the urban system Derelict & under-used land/ resources widespread, due to Derelict & under-used land/ resources, from deregulation Derelict & under-used land/ resources in hinterland, due to Derelict & under-used land/ resources in hinterland, due to
  10. 10. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Destinations How different futures be realised? Typically begin with analysis of critically important drivers, and examine how far these are relatively predictable and unpredictable; then set out a rough description of several future states –profiles. Destinations can be differentiated according to key structural parameters – examine which elements of the system are influenced by drivers, or are of major concern. IAF approach: Three Scenario Profiles: Alpha - α - “More than expected” (“Better”, “Faster”… etc) Beta - β - “Less than expected” (“Worse”, “Slower”… etc) Gamma - γ - “Different than expected” (may prompt: radical difference) The task is to develop a plausible scenario – not utopian, not dependent on wild cards or very unlikely events. Destinations Destinations Destinations Destinations
  11. 11. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Success Scenarios A specific type of destination-based scenario. Here we typically build just one scenario. It has some similarity to the “better than expected” scenario in the archetype approach, but does not rely on external drivers working out in favourable directions. It is more of a stretch target - what desirable future could be achieved in this domain? Often this analysis proceeds after some multiple scenario analysis. Requires analysis of current state of affairs which we are seeking to change What is success? What actions promote it?
  12. 12. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR GM2040+ Workshop Economy, employment, innovation Environment, climate and energy Social and cultural issues Built environment Governance, policy and democracy STEEPV analysis: 21 drivers Manchester Policy documents Four scenarios WORKSHOP: Plenaries and 54 Break Out Groups (Ambition Areas) • Coverage • Main drivers • Where we are • What would be success? (where we could be if we try) • What actions are needed
  13. 13. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR E.g. BrOG on Environment, climate and energy Coverage/ main issues: Sustainable lifestyle/community Low carbon mobility/transport systems (location of things) Energy – grid generation/optimising and/or reducing gas energy demand Low carbon economy: skills & jobs Climate change – GM unique specificities (opportunities & risks) Green spaces/outdoor infrastructures Top drivers: Inequality Education and skills
  14. 14. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Each BrOG Where are we now/what would be success (in terms of these main issues)? How is GM currently perceived by informed observers? How could GM be perceived in 2040, if sufficient effort is made? Develop Exemplaries – concrete, achievable, examples World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50% World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50%
  15. 15. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Exemplaries – Group 3 – Environment & Energy Sustainable lifestyle There should be no people in fuel poverty Everyone knows 5 other people on their street (this was a comment about social isolation and a concern to try and address that) Everyone should know how to contact/influence their local councillor 95% skilled 18+ target Low carbon Remove car parks for employers. No car to work from within GM People should not be dying on our roads Cycle routes that are safe for kids to bike to school Zero carbon aviation fuel programme Zero emission transport system in GM Energy grid No gas use anymore we need it for power. Zero heat gas energy 2 way IOT grip 80% penetration 10 Twh local generation Low carbon economy skills/jobs Low carbon skills embedded in schools with challenge and competitions to de-carbonise GM To be biggest LCEGS sector in UK X% GM companies signed up to and supporting supply chains on circular (type) economy Circular economy Waste free design and business network for sharing open-innovation/resources Dematerialisation local goods purchase rank Climate change GM unique specificities GM planning policies and exemplar buildings that are for GM adaptation Everyone knows how climate and weather can affect them and their family/business and has plans to deal with it Minimum Heat/float incidents Planned support for extinct locations Green spaces Everyone should see a flash of the living biosphere outside their window. Green space increase by 33% X km per green space resident park space
  16. 16. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Success Scenario Analysis Bring together groups to discuss perceptions, ambitions. Seek to achieve more detailed definition of nature of success, reconcile possible contradictions. (when time permits, also examine: How might we know if this scenario is emerging? What would be leading indicators? What should we be monitoring?) Carousel or other approach to generate suggestions for actions (non-voluntaristic) required from different stakeholders. Discussion/prioritisation of actions.
  17. 17. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Stakeholders/Actions Government National AGMA/regional Other Public Services Third Sector Communities Infrastructure and Services: Utilities Media and Communications Housing and Construction Private Sector Local/SMEs Financial institutions Transnational firms Knowledge & Skills Primary & secondary Vocational HEIs Carousel: Improved actions/ New actions/ Dropped actions
  18. 18. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR Overall Outcomes Limited by time pressure, limited scope of participation, growing preoccupation with Devo Manc... Several comments as to value of sharing knowledge with and learning from other policy groups with long-term focus Recognition of numerous uncertainties, of importance of issues like inequality Affirmation of Manchester progress and potential, hope for further development and dissemination of work.
  19. 19. Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015 MIIR End of Presentation

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