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Water resources –
future prospects and implications for food security
Jeremy Bird
International Water Management Institute...
As water demand increases …..
…need a new approach to
water security
Source: UN Water
Global water scarcity
Global grain trading: imbalances likely to increase
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/graphic/2012/feb/14/water-footprint-world-map
Virtual water: a reflection o...
Water and grains: the vital link
2015 2050
1
2
22%
1
2
44%
2.4bn 4.8bn
Without investments in water management
the number ...
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Food supply under pressure
Photo: Bob Morris
Source: 10 Things You Ought to Know about Water. Circle of Blue. 2009.
http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2009/world/in...
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
meatconsumption
(kg/cap/yr)...
Livestock: demand is growing,
but water use can be reduced
Can reduce water use by:
• Feeding with agricultural by-product...
Greater variability will impact on food production
Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)
Source: Socioeconomi...
Droughts and floods: a growing influence on food prices
Wall Street Journal illustration:
http://farmpolicy.com/wp-content...
Photo: ILRI Mozambique ,2008
Food shortage and price rises – a precursor to food riots
Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI
Improved water management now on the global agenda
Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014.
World Economic Forum,
Global Risks 2015 - Insight
Report
The water crisis: a ...
Identifying solutions for a water-stressed world
1. Sustainable groundwater
management
2. More efficient use of
surface wa...
Recent data on water withdrawals from USA show that withdrawals in 2010 were lower than at
any time in the past 40 years
D...
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Irrigatedareain1000ha
Canal irrigated area Tank irrigated area Grou...
India: Twin cases of ‘over-abstraction’ and ‘under-utilization’
Source: IWMI
Improving groundwater governance:
Jyotigram Yojana, India
Power rationing led to more sustainable
groundwater use, reduced...
Jyotigram Yojana – separating electricity feeder lines
Electricity Network Before Electricity Network After
Managing demand: swipe cards for pump operation
Photo courtesy: BMDA, Bangladesh
Photo courtesy: The Water Channel
Providing Incentives for renewable, sustainable
and more efficient groundwater use
Photo: Prashanth Vishwanathan / IWMI
Solar pumps – renewable, but sustainable?
Getting the incentives right.
Infographic: Rachel Cramer / IWMI
Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
The Nebraska solution: recovery of water levels
Incentives in India - rapid expansion of drip irrigation –
suitability depends on context
Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI
Precision surface irrigation:
A viable alternative to drip irrigation
Pakistan: Land and Water
productivity increases,
red...
Agriculture to urban transfers, China
Agricultural
production levels
maintained…
… as water allocation to
agriculture is r...
Murray Darling Basin: Water trading system
View graph -
http://www.nwc.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0008/29780/Figure-3-8-
M...
Against the grain?:
Beer from cassava reduces water demand
Photo courtesy: Nile Breweries Ltd.
Photo courtesy: Wikimedia C...
Research into action: reducing water use in coffee, Vietnam
• Coffee - 3% of Vietnam’s GDP; employs around 2 million peopl...
Losses to agriculture from floods and droughts
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Breeding flood-tolerance – “Scuba” rice
• 4 million tons of rice lost to floods in India and Bangladesh, annually
• Scuba ...
January-April average min. temperature C°
7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5
WheatyieldYaquiValley(Ton/Ha)
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6....
Rethinking storage : Underground ‘taming’ of floods for
irrigation (UTFI)
Source: Paul Pavelic / IWMI 2012
Providing information to improve management decsions
Peri-urban: high risk polluted water use driven by city
markets
Photo: IWMI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Diluted
wastewater
or polluted
water
Untreated
wastewater
Groundwater Treated
wastewater
River Other
su...
Photo: Pay Drechsel/IWMI
Wastewater: a valuable asset
Wastewater re-use: reducing health risks
IWMI‘s role
• Assessing the extent of reuse, risks and benefits.
• Developing & t...
Securing water for a sustainable agricultural future
Need a major initiative on sustainable groundwater
management…
..comm...
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Water resources – Future prospects and implications for food security

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Presented by IWMI’s Director General - Jeremy Bird at the IGC GRAINS 2015, 24th International Grains Council Grains Conference, held at the Grosvenor House Hotel, London, on 9th June 2015.

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Water resources – Future prospects and implications for food security

  1. 1. Water resources – future prospects and implications for food security Jeremy Bird International Water Management Institute Led by: Photo: Graeme Williams / IWMI
  2. 2. As water demand increases ….. …need a new approach to water security Source: UN Water
  3. 3. Global water scarcity
  4. 4. Global grain trading: imbalances likely to increase
  5. 5. Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/graphic/2012/feb/14/water-footprint-world-map Virtual water: a reflection of global food trends
  6. 6. Water and grains: the vital link 2015 2050 1 2 22% 1 2 44% 2.4bn 4.8bn Without investments in water management the number of food-insecure people could double by 2050 Increasing threat by unsustainable water use: Threat to global economy Threat to food security Threat to world’s grain production 39% 50% Source: IFPRI and Veolia Water, 2013 Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI
  7. 7. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Food supply under pressure Photo: Bob Morris
  8. 8. Source: 10 Things You Ought to Know about Water. Circle of Blue. 2009. http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2009/world/infographic-ten-things-you-should-know-about-water/ TRENDS: Transition in water use – agriculture to industrial
  9. 9. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10 100 1000 10000 100000 GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year) meatconsumption (kg/cap/yr) Meat China India 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10 100 1000 10000 100000 GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year) milkconsumption (kg/cap/yr) Milk China India USA USA Consumption and income (1961-2000) Source: IWMI Meat requires 100 times more water than grain protein
  10. 10. Livestock: demand is growing, but water use can be reduced Can reduce water use by: • Feeding with agricultural by-products and crop residues • Selecting and breeding crops and forages that use water efficiently • Closing crop yield gaps • Increasing animal productivity e.g. dairy buffalo – reduced water use by more than 75%: from 2350 to 548 litres Photo: Faseeh Shams / IWMI
  11. 11. Greater variability will impact on food production Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Source: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)
  12. 12. Droughts and floods: a growing influence on food prices Wall Street Journal illustration: http://farmpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/MI- BQ581_FOOD_G_20120809184205.jpg
  13. 13. Photo: ILRI Mozambique ,2008 Food shortage and price rises – a precursor to food riots
  14. 14. Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI Improved water management now on the global agenda
  15. 15. Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014. World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2015 - Insight Report The water crisis: a global risk to business
  16. 16. Identifying solutions for a water-stressed world 1. Sustainable groundwater management 2. More efficient use of surface water 3. Living with floods and droughts 4. Re-using waste Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI
  17. 17. Recent data on water withdrawals from USA show that withdrawals in 2010 were lower than at any time in the past 40 years Demand side management measures can make a difference Increased water consumption is not inevitable Economic productivity of water (GDP per 100 gallons) Source: Pacific Institute Water withdrawals and GDP
  18. 18. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 Irrigatedareain1000ha Canal irrigated area Tank irrigated area Groundwater irrigated area Canal Tanks Growth of irrigation in India driven by groundwater Source: Mukherji et al. 2013.
  19. 19. India: Twin cases of ‘over-abstraction’ and ‘under-utilization’ Source: IWMI
  20. 20. Improving groundwater governance: Jyotigram Yojana, India Power rationing led to more sustainable groundwater use, reduced electricity use and increased yields Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI Source: IWMI
  21. 21. Jyotigram Yojana – separating electricity feeder lines Electricity Network Before Electricity Network After
  22. 22. Managing demand: swipe cards for pump operation Photo courtesy: BMDA, Bangladesh Photo courtesy: The Water Channel
  23. 23. Providing Incentives for renewable, sustainable and more efficient groundwater use Photo: Prashanth Vishwanathan / IWMI
  24. 24. Solar pumps – renewable, but sustainable? Getting the incentives right. Infographic: Rachel Cramer / IWMI
  25. 25. Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln The Nebraska solution: recovery of water levels
  26. 26. Incentives in India - rapid expansion of drip irrigation – suitability depends on context Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI
  27. 27. Precision surface irrigation: A viable alternative to drip irrigation Pakistan: Land and Water productivity increases, reduced diesel costs Photos: Arif Anwar / IWMI
  28. 28. Agriculture to urban transfers, China Agricultural production levels maintained… … as water allocation to agriculture is reduced and transferred to urban use Water transfers between sectors can be managed Source: IWMI. 2007. Transferring water from irrigation to higher valued uses: A case study of the Zhanghe irrigation system in China.
  29. 29. Murray Darling Basin: Water trading system View graph - http://www.nwc.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0008/29780/Figure-3-8- MurrayGoDarling-Basin-monthly-water-allocation-trading-activity- percentage-of-volume-traded-and-average-price-2008-09-to-2011-12.jpg
  30. 30. Against the grain?: Beer from cassava reduces water demand Photo courtesy: Nile Breweries Ltd. Photo courtesy: Wikimedia Commons
  31. 31. Research into action: reducing water use in coffee, Vietnam • Coffee - 3% of Vietnam’s GDP; employs around 2 million people • Water scarcity is the main threat • Many farmers over-irrigating • Research showed ‘water stress’ and strategic timing of irrigation boosted yield • Savings on water and production costs Photo Credit: Creative Commons, Wikimedia
  32. 32. Losses to agriculture from floods and droughts Source: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
  33. 33. Breeding flood-tolerance – “Scuba” rice • 4 million tons of rice lost to floods in India and Bangladesh, annually • Scuba rice resilient to complete submergence up to 17 days • In India, 12 million hectares of flood-prone land under scuba rice Source and Photo: IRRI 2008
  34. 34. January-April average min. temperature C° 7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5 WheatyieldYaquiValley(Ton/Ha) 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 2010 2011 2006 2007 2002 2008 2000 2004 2005 2003 2001 2012 2009 2013 y= 11.55 - 0.65X r2 =0.75 Adapting to climate change: Heat-tolerant wheat prove value in Mexico 10C increase = 700 kg lower yield 2014 Source: H.-J. Braun, CIMMYT 2015
  35. 35. Rethinking storage : Underground ‘taming’ of floods for irrigation (UTFI) Source: Paul Pavelic / IWMI 2012
  36. 36. Providing information to improve management decsions
  37. 37. Peri-urban: high risk polluted water use driven by city markets Photo: IWMI
  38. 38. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Diluted wastewater or polluted water Untreated wastewater Groundwater Treated wastewater River Other surface water bodies Rainfed Irrigation canal Open drainage Numberofcities In and around three of four cities in the developing world, farmers use polluted irrigation water for the production of high-value crops Global survey - irrigation source in urban & peri-urban areas
  39. 39. Photo: Pay Drechsel/IWMI Wastewater: a valuable asset
  40. 40. Wastewater re-use: reducing health risks IWMI‘s role • Assessing the extent of reuse, risks and benefits. • Developing & testing low-cost options for microbial risk reduction (from farm to fork). • Supporting international guidelines and capacity building.
  41. 41. Securing water for a sustainable agricultural future Need a major initiative on sustainable groundwater management… ..common problems – but context specific solutions Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI

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