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Sustainable, Just and Productive Water Resources Development in Western Nepal Under Current and Future Conditions

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Presented by IWMI's Luna Bharati (Principal Researcher/Team Leader DJB) at the Digo Jal Bikas project wrap-up workshop held in Kathmandu, Nepal on March 13, 2019. More info: http://djb.iwmi.org/

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Sustainable, Just and Productive Water Resources Development in Western Nepal Under Current and Future Conditions

  1. 1. SUSTAINABLE, JUST AND PRODUCTIVE WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN NEPAL UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS 1 Dr. Luna Bharati Principal Researcher/Team Leader DJB IWMI March 13, 2019 | Kathmandu
  2. 2. 2 Nepal: The Water Context If water resource is properly harnessed, it would be the ticket out of poverty through economic growth mainly in the hydropower and agriculture sectors.  Water resources (WR) remain under-developed – Less than 7% of available WR are managed for socio-economic purposes (WECS, 2010) – 2.5 % of economically feasible hydropower potential (42000 MW) harnessed (NEA, 2018) – 30% of arable land is irrigated (CBS, 2012) – 22% of groundwater utilized in Terai (Shrestha et al., 2018) – Crop productivity is significantly lower than rest of South Asia (Bartett et al., 2010)
  3. 3. 3 Hydropower Projects: Current 3 Existing: 38.5 MW (Lower Chamelia and Naugadh Khola)
  4. 4. 4 Hydropower Projects: Current and Future 4 Existing: 38.5 MW (Lower Chamelia and Naugadh Khola) Construction: 183.7 MW (15 projects) Planned: 9691.8 MW (32 projects) Proposed: 11,122.8 (102 projects)
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6 Water Resource Planning Adapted from: Harou, 2014  Should ideally meet demands and achieve various societal objectives (‘balanced’) under a wide range of plausible futures (‘robust’)  Main Challenge:  A shared vision to develop a basin/country that is robust and balanced
  7. 7. 7 OBJECTIVESDigo Jal Bikas  Construction of Sound Knowledgebase  Development & Applications of Tools, Models & Approaches  Support the Development of Integrated Policy & Management Goal: Promote sustainable WRD in Western Nepal through balancing future vision, economic growth, social justice and healthy & resilient ecosystems TEAM Lead: IWMI Collaborators: Kathmandu University NWCF Duke University
  8. 8. 8 Digo Jal Bikas: Operational Framework
  9. 9. 9 Project Footprint in Western Nepal
  10. 10. 10 Basin Highlights – Based on 3660 Households Surveyed  Women primarily (62%) responsible for water collection  47% have access to piped water systems  Primarily smallholder farming systems-Average landholding (0.5 ha )  16% female headed households  69% engaged in NRM related groups/committees, only 22% female membership  Over 50% reported drought, followed by hailstorm, untimely rain  Only 3.3% reported support services following climate induced disasters  61% rain-fed agriculture  5.8% own improved ag technical equipment  Average annual income is NPR 93,531
  11. 11. 11 Water Availability Assessment | Outputs • P =1,332 mm • Q =1,004 mm • AET =474 mm Water Balance Variation Across Physiographic Regions
  12. 12. 12 Future Projections  Trends noticed: – Temperature increases consistently – Increase in precipitation variability 209@Plain 207@Plain 406@Hill 513@Hill 202@Mountain 303@Mountain DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF 0 200 400 0 200 400 0 200 400 Seasonal Change for pr DPrecipitaion[%] Climate Scenarios RCP4.5_NF_Low Risk RCP4.5_NF_Consensus RCP4.5_MF_Low Risk RCP4.5_MF_Consensus RCP4.5_FF_Consensus RCP8.5_NF_Low Risk RCP8.5_NF_Con RCP8.5_MF_Con 209@Plain 406@Hill 202@Mountain DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual 0 4 8 12 0 4 8 12 0 4 8 12 DMaxTemperature°C Climate Scenarios RCP4.5_NF_Low Risk RCP4.5_NF_Consensus 209@Plain 207@Plain 405@Plain 406@Hill 513@Hill 514@Hill 202@Mountain 303@Mountain 104@Hill DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual DJF MAM JJAS O 0 200 400 0 200 400 0 200 400 Seasonal Change for pr DPrecipitaion[%] Climate Scenarios RCP4.5_NF_Low Risk RCP4.5_NF_Consensus RCP4.5_MF_Low Risk RCP4.5_MF_Consensus RCP4.5_FF_Consensus RCP8.5_NF_Low Risk RCP8.5_NF_Consensus RCP8.5_MF_Consensus RCP8.5_FF_Consens RCP8.5_FF_High Ris Higher temperatures, prolonged monsoon and sporadic rain events even in drier months are projected
  13. 13. 13 Visions for Development in Western Nepal  State-led development – Development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects  Local demand-driven development: – Priority to municipal water supply, small hydro, farmer-managed irrigation schemes  Preserving ecosystem integrity: – Priority to environmental conservation and development leveraging natural assets → Visions inform scenarios analysis: Full infrastructure, limited infrastructure, and environmental development
  14. 14. 14 Western Nepal Environmental Flows Calculator
  15. 15. 15 Potential Trade-Offs and Tensions Energy Generation Large-scale/storage plants for export vs. small plants for domestic demand and rural electrification Findings: Storage generates much more power and revenue Hydropower and irrigation Storage hydropower for vs. water for agricultural production Findings: Very little tradeoff in Nepal (Storage elevates year- round irrigation water availability) Environmental Impacts of environmental flow constraints Findings: More stringent E-flows reduces ag. and energy production Institutional Energy for domestic demands or export; transboundary water flows Findings: Tradeoff in local vs. export consumption of energy; some tradeoff from Terai irrigation vs. flow into India
  16. 16. Targeting small holder farmers to improve dry season irrigation via climate smart technology Agriculture: A conduit for socio-economic transformation
  17. 17. 17 Walking the Talk  GESI Framework: – Gender analysis was done community and organizational level  GESI is a fringe issue in government agenda – Restricted only to policy level “Water resources are not gender- specific. Water resources are natural resources. It is not relevant to gender. We cannot say that there should be gender-friendly water extraction -Male engineer, Government
  18. 18. 18 Some highlights of DJB outputs
  19. 19. 19 Impact and Legacy  Novel approaches were developed, applied- e.g.. E-flows, masculinity workshop, participatory gender training, HEM, Climate Futures analysis  The hydrological models are being applied in the National Irrigation Master Plan  The E-flows Assessment will also be incorporated into the Irrigation Master Plan  All project generated data, tools, models and publications will be available through the IWMI water data portal as well as the DJB project website: – http://waterdata.iwmi.org/ – http://djb.iwmi.org/
  20. 20. 20 20 Acknowledgements: This study is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Digo Jal Bikas (DJB) project. Thank You IWMI is a CGIAR center focused on research for development. CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future. Its work is carried out by 15 research centers in collaboration with hundreds of partners across the globe.

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