SECURING WATER FOR FOOD, LIVELIHOODS
AND ECOSYSTEMS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGE

  Smakhtin, V., de Fraiture, C., Bossio, D., M...
WATER FOR AGRICULTURE RESEARCH IN
                THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

 GCMs

             Basin water          ...
WATER SCARCITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE




1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AT
                       SMALLER SCALES-
                        Blue Nile, Ethiopia
  ...
MAKING STORAGE “SMARTER” –
                                                           storage continuum

                 ...
EVALUATING CC ADAPTATION OPTIONS –
                the case of groundwater in India

Groundwater use in Asia       Climate...
EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
 CHANGE POLICIES- the case of biofuels



         •   For all national biofuels’ plans ...
“USING” CLIMATE CHANGE TO HELP SOLVE
                                                                                     ...
CONCLUSIONS



•   Understanding of and adapting to existing climate variability is critical
    for adaptation to future ...
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Securing Water for Food, Livelihoods and Ecosystems to face Climate Change

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Securing Water for Food, Livelihoods and Ecosystems to face Climate Change

Smakhtin, V., de Fraiture, C., Bossio, D., Molden, D, Hoanh C., Noble, A., Giordano, M., McCartney, M., Shah, T.
International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka

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Securing Water for Food, Livelihoods and Ecosystems to face Climate Change

  1. 1. SECURING WATER FOR FOOD, LIVELIHOODS AND ECOSYSTEMS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGE Smakhtin, V., de Fraiture, C., Bossio, D., Molden, D, Hoanh C., Noble, A., Giordano, M., McCartney, M., Shah, T. International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions. 10-12 March 2009. Copenhagen, Denmark
  2. 2. WATER FOR AGRICULTURE RESEARCH IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE GCMs Basin water Agricultural Adaptive water impacts impacts management CC-related policies • What are the impacts of climate change on water at global, river basin and farm scales? • What are water implications of climate mitigation measures? • What are the most promising measures in water management to minimize agricultural vulnerability to climate change ? • What water related investments are needed and where?
  3. 3. WATER SCARCITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
  4. 4. PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AT SMALLER SCALES- Blue Nile, Ethiopia Precipitation: Runoff: Q90: 0 to 20% increase -15 to +25% change -25 to +60% change • climate in the basin may become wetter and warmer in 2050s • low flows are likely to become higher • droughts are likely to become less frequent and severe
  5. 5. MAKING STORAGE “SMARTER” – storage continuum SUBSURFACE SURFACE ACCESS Increasing environmental and social cost Increasing complexity of management Increasing capital costs dam outlets, Reservoirs pumps, off-take towers small large Direct, Ponds and Tanks Buckets, pumps Boreholes, Aquifers deep /shallow wells, etc deep shallow Soil Moisture Planting crops Natural wetlands All of the above Increasing resilience Increasing resilience
  6. 6. EVALUATING CC ADAPTATION OPTIONS – the case of groundwater in India Groundwater use in Asia Climate change and water storage alternatives Measurable criteria Small Large Managed India Surface Dams Aquifers Storage Water where needed 3 2 5 Water when needed 1 2 5 Level of water control 1 2 5 USA Non-beneficial losses –e.g. -4 -2 -1 China evaporation Bang., Pak Protection against a single 1 2 5 annual drought W. Europe Protection against -1 1 4 VN, SL successive droughts Ease of recovery during 5 4 3 monsoon Other
  7. 7. EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES- the case of biofuels • For all national biofuels’ plans to be implemented, 30 mill ha more land and 180 km3 more water will be necessary globally • Some Individual countries (e.g. China and India) will not meet food and biofuel water demand • Is it ethical to use crops to produce energy when 860 mill people are undernourished?
  8. 8. “USING” CLIMATE CHANGE TO HELP SOLVE OLD PROBLEMS- data collection and sharing • Observed hydrological data in the world are insufficient to meet climate cahnge challenges • Many countries and regions remain poorly gauged • Data collection networks decline • Access to already collected data is limited Example of declining networks Only 20 out 170 WMO member states share data 9000 8000 USA 7000 M.Norris, USGS Number of Flow Stations 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 2200 flow stations closed in 1980-2005 1000 many had 30+ years of record 0 1901 1905 1909 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Years
  9. 9. CONCLUSIONS • Understanding of and adapting to existing climate variability is critical for adaptation to future climates • Quantification of local climate change impacts is imperative for the design of adaptation measures. There may be potential beneficiaries of climate change too • climate change brings back to the agenda conventional water management measures, like storage, but forces to re-think them as adaptation options • climate change -related interventions, like buofuels, may have significant implications for agriculture and water management. They need to be evaluated • climate change may be a new context which facilitate the solution old problems in the water sector, like data sharing.

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