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MANAGING WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY FOR
IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS
VLADIMIR SMAKHTIN
Contributors: Giriraj Am...
EVERYTHING IS VARIABLE, WATER - TOO

TOO LITTLE…

…TOO MUCH

Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi.org
WATER VARIABILITY INCREASES WATER SCARCITY

Source: Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008
Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi.org
WATER VARIABILITY INFLUENCES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Source: Brown and Lal (2006)
A climate with moderate annual rainfall an...
WATER VARIABILITY MANIFESTS ITSELF IN
DROUGHT AND FLOOD DAMAGES

Average annual characteristics over 1980-2008
Source -EM-...
IN MANY REGIONS OF THE WORLD, WATER RESOURCES
VARIABILITY IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE WITH CLIMATE
CHANGE

Water for a food-s...
VARIABILITY MANAGEMENT MUST RECEIVE MUCH MORE
SCIENCE, POLICY AND INVESTMENT ATTENTION

• Better quantification of variabi...
IDENTIFY AND QUANTIFY HOT SPOTS

AGRICULTURE;
PAGE (2005)

POPULATION
CIESIN - 2010

FLOOD EXPOSED
GDP
WB, 2010

Water for...
QUANTIFY RISK AND EXTENT
Ganges Basin

8-days maps of inundation extent
2010

Source: Amarnath et al, 2012

Water for a fo...
LACK OF WATER STORAGE ≈ FOOD INSECURITY

Ethiopia

Source: World Bank, 2006

Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi.org
PROMOTE THE IDEA OF “WATER STORAGE CONTINUUM”
Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010

Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi....
BETTER PLAN WATER STORAGE DEVELOPMENT

Proportion of water deficit in “mean” drought that
can be satisfied by existing lar...
CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Current Climate – Dry Season

Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi.org
CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Current Climate – Wet Season

Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi.org
CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Future Climate - Wet Season

Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi.org
CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I);
Wet season

Water for a food...
CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I);
Dry season

Water for a food...
CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand
(Source: Pavelic et al, 201...
CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand
(Source: Pavelic et al, 201...
KEEPING VARIABILITY ?

• Variability has positive effects too, e.g. the range of high
and low flows, their proper timing a...
THANK YOU !

Water for a food-secure world
www.iwmi.org

21
GANGES WATER MACHINE AND UTFI

•

Suitability for UTFI:
– Prefeasibility analysis first
– 12 indicator groups of suitabili...
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Managing water resources variability for improved food security and livelihoods

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Vladimir Smakhtin
Science Seminar: Managing Extreme Water Variability
4th October 2013

Published in: Business, Technology
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Managing water resources variability for improved food security and livelihoods

  1. 1. MANAGING WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY FOR IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS VLADIMIR SMAKHTIN Contributors: Giriraj Amarnath, Nishadi Eriyagama, Matthew McCartney, Paul Pavelic, Upamali Surangika International Water Management Institute (IWMI) CCAFS-WLE- IWMI Science Seminar, University of Copenhagen, 4 October 2013 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  2. 2. EVERYTHING IS VARIABLE, WATER - TOO TOO LITTLE… …TOO MUCH Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  3. 3. WATER VARIABILITY INCREASES WATER SCARCITY Source: Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  4. 4. WATER VARIABILITY INFLUENCES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Source: Brown and Lal (2006) A climate with moderate annual rainfall and its low variability favors prosperity Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  5. 5. WATER VARIABILITY MANIFESTS ITSELF IN DROUGHT AND FLOOD DAMAGES Average annual characteristics over 1980-2008 Source -EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Brussels Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  6. 6. IN MANY REGIONS OF THE WORLD, WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  7. 7. VARIABILITY MANAGEMENT MUST RECEIVE MUCH MORE SCIENCE, POLICY AND INVESTMENT ATTENTION • Better quantification of variability hot spots, risks and extent • Re-thinking water storage • Conjunctive management of floods and droughts in river basins through subsurface solutions (vs just surface ones) Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  8. 8. IDENTIFY AND QUANTIFY HOT SPOTS AGRICULTURE; PAGE (2005) POPULATION CIESIN - 2010 FLOOD EXPOSED GDP WB, 2010 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  9. 9. QUANTIFY RISK AND EXTENT Ganges Basin 8-days maps of inundation extent 2010 Source: Amarnath et al, 2012 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  10. 10. LACK OF WATER STORAGE ≈ FOOD INSECURITY Ethiopia Source: World Bank, 2006 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  11. 11. PROMOTE THE IDEA OF “WATER STORAGE CONTINUUM” Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  12. 12. BETTER PLAN WATER STORAGE DEVELOPMENT Proportion of water deficit in “mean” drought that can be satisfied by existing large dams’ storage Source: Eriyagama et al. 2009 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org A need for water storage for livestock Source: McCartney et al, 2013
  13. 13. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate – Dry Season Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  14. 14. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate – Wet Season Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  15. 15. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Future Climate - Wet Season Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  16. 16. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I); Wet season Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  17. 17. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I); Dry season Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  18. 18. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand (Source: Pavelic et al, 2012) Land Use Alluvium aquifers UTFI in plan view
  19. 19. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand (Source: Pavelic et al, 2012) • Harvest water only in very wet years - approximately 1 year in 4 • Around 200 km2 land dedicated to flood harvesting may be needed (< 1% of the total basin area) • Additional 65,000- 270,000 ha of irrigation possible • $150 mill / year - mean income to smallholder farmers • Cost of implementation < $ 1 Bill. Payback time can be 7 -14 years, depending on the efficiency of the scheme • Farmers’ participation is critical • No analogs so far exist Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  20. 20. KEEPING VARIABILITY ? • Variability has positive effects too, e.g. the range of high and low flows, their proper timing and frequency is needed to ensure a healthy river • The challenge is to alleviate negative aspects of variability, while maintaining its positive side Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org
  21. 21. THANK YOU ! Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org 21
  22. 22. GANGES WATER MACHINE AND UTFI • Suitability for UTFI: – Prefeasibility analysis first – 12 indicator groups of suitability next – Potentially suitable are of 433,367 km2, where suitability is categorised from “low” to “very high” Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

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