Implications of climate change on existingand planned water resource development inthe Upper Blue NileAFRICA 2013 Conferen...
• Simulate water demand for major production activities(existing and planned)• Evaluate the possible implications of CC on...
ModelingClimate change simulation (CCLM)• temperature• rainfall• potential evapotranspirationHydrological modeling (SWAT)•...
Application of WEAP• Water accounting model (mass balance) –simulates water use across a range ofdemands• Data from:– MoWR...
Development ScenariosA1B scenario run with three development scenarios:• Current Development (baseline)• Intermediate Deve...
Schematic of development scenariosCurrentdevelopmentIntermediatedevelopmentFullDevelopment
Existing and Planned schemesCurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFullDevelopmentIrrigation (ha) 15,345 272,018 364,355...
Hydrological Impacts-60-40-200201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18%changeinannualflowSub-BasinA1B scenario:chang...
Climate Impacts (A1B scenario)1920212223242526271980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Temperature(oC)Basin: annual temperature...
Climate impacts summaryAverage annualtemperature (oC)Average annualrainfall (mm)Potential Evapotranspiration(mm)1983-2102 ...
Irrigation (1)6,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,0001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100AverageannualirrigationRequirment(m3...
Irrigation (2)1983-20122021-20502071-21000500100015002000250030003500CurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFull develop...
Hydropower (1)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00019831989199520012007201320192025203120372043204920552061206720732079208...
Hydropower (2)Current Development Intermediate Development Full DevelopmentElectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)% ofpotentialElectr...
Lake Tana: water levels1,7831,7841,7851,7861,7871980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Waterlevel(masl)Lake Tana: average annua...
Flows02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Flow(m3s-1)Annual flowat KessieCurrent development...
Flow Summary (m3s-1)Current Development Intermediate Development Full DevelopmentOutflowTanaKessie Border OutflowTanaKessi...
Conclusions• Combining climate, hydrological and water resourcesmodels provides a useful tool to assess the possiblewater ...
Thank you
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue Nile

651 views

Published on

Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue NileWater-Food-Energy Nexus in the context of groundwater use in India: Experience from three Indian States

A presentation by Matthew McCartney, Michael Girma and Solomon Demissie

Presented at the AFRICA2013 conference in Addia Ababa, Ethiopia, 16-18 April 2013.

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
651
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
38
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
11
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue Nile

  1. 1. Implications of climate change on existingand planned water resource development inthe Upper Blue NileAFRICA 2013 Conference: 16-18 April 2013Matthew McCartney, Michael Girma and Solomon Demissie
  2. 2. • Simulate water demand for major production activities(existing and planned)• Evaluate the possible implications of CC on waterresources/scheme performance (how do long-termbenefits change?)• Assess impacts of water resources development andCC on river flowsObjectives
  3. 3. ModelingClimate change simulation (CCLM)• temperature• rainfall• potential evapotranspirationHydrological modeling (SWAT)• actual evapotranspiration• groundwater recharge• river flowWater Resources Modeling (WEAP)• irrigation• hydropower• river flow
  4. 4. Application of WEAP• Water accounting model (mass balance) –simulates water use across a range ofdemands• Data from:– MoWR/EEPCo/NMA– Basin Master Plans– Irrigation efficiency studies– New scheme feasibility studies• Simulation 1983-2100 (monthly time step)
  5. 5. Development ScenariosA1B scenario run with three development scenarios:• Current Development (baseline)• Intermediate Development: Planned development(feasibility studies)• Full Development: Potential development(Basin Master Plans)
  6. 6. Schematic of development scenariosCurrentdevelopmentIntermediatedevelopmentFullDevelopment
  7. 7. Existing and Planned schemesCurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFullDevelopmentIrrigation (ha) 15,345 272,018 364,355Hydropower (MW) 218 2,194 10,276Storage (Bm3) 11.6 70.2 167
  8. 8. Hydrological Impacts-60-40-200201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18%changeinannualflowSub-BasinA1B scenario:changes inflow2021-2050 2071-2100-40-30-20-10010201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18%changeinannualflowSub-BasinA1B scenario: changes in groundwater recharge2021-2050 2071-2100
  9. 9. Climate Impacts (A1B scenario)1920212223242526271980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Temperature(oC)Basin: annual temperature (oC)6008001000120014001600180020001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Rainfall(mm)Basin: annual rainfall12001250130013501400145015001550160016501980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Potentialevapotranspiration(mm)Basin: potential evapotranspirationImpacts greatest in thesecond half of the century
  10. 10. Climate impacts summaryAverage annualtemperature (oC)Average annualrainfall (mm)Potential Evapotranspiration(mm)1983-2102 20.9 1,310 1,3632021-2050 21.9 1,290 1,4052071-2100 24.9 1,110 1,535
  11. 11. Irrigation (1)6,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,0001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100AverageannualirrigationRequirment(m3ha-1)Basinaverage irrigationrequirement1983-2012: 8,2442021-2050: 8,4912071-2100: 9,72605001,0001,5002,000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecIrrigationdemand(m3ha-1)Average monthly requirement1983-2012 2021-2050 2071-2100
  12. 12. Irrigation (2)1983-20122021-20502071-21000500100015002000250030003500CurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFull developmentMm3Irrigation water delivered Unmet demand0500100015002000250030003500CurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFull developmentMm3Irrigation water delivered Unmet demand0500100015002000250030003500CurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFull developmentMm3Irrigation water delivered Unmet demand
  13. 13. Hydropower (1)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00019831989199520012007201320192025203120372043204920552061206720732079208520912097HydrolectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)Current development Intermediate Development Full Development
  14. 14. Hydropower (2)Current Development Intermediate Development Full DevelopmentElectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)% ofpotentialElectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)% ofpotentialElectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)% ofpotential1983-2012 1,397 100 12,814 98 40,803 912021-2050 1,390 100 12,962 99 44,245 982071-2100 1,138 82 8,422 64 28,449 63
  15. 15. Lake Tana: water levels1,7831,7841,7851,7861,7871980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Waterlevel(masl)Lake Tana: average annual water levelCurrentdevelopment Intermediate Development Full Development
  16. 16. Flows02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Flow(m3s-1)Annual flowat KessieCurrent development Intermediate Development Full Development05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Flow(m3s-1) Annual flow at the Ethiopia-SudanborderCurrent development Intermediate Development Full Development
  17. 17. Flow Summary (m3s-1)Current Development Intermediate Development Full DevelopmentOutflowTanaKessie Border OutflowTanaKessie Border OutflowTanaKessie Border1983-2012 177 617 1,655 81 522 1,622 87 528 1,5992021-2050 158 659 1,713 61 563 1,678 63 564 1,6832071-2100 45 444 1,327 10 409 1,305 21 421 1,301
  18. 18. Conclusions• Combining climate, hydrological and water resourcesmodels provides a useful tool to assess the possiblewater resource implications of CC.• Results indicate:• long time horizon for full effect of climate change(“end of the century“)• considerable spatial variability in hydrologicalimpacts of CC• clear trends but increasing variability in manyhydrological variables• Mid-range climate change is likely to impact theperformance of planned irrigation and hydropowerschemes significantly by the end of the 21st century.
  19. 19. Thank you

×