Cloud Storage: The Next 40 Years

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Keynote presentation at Zadara Storage Summit. The first segment covers the next ten years. The second segment covers the next 30 years.

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Cloud Storage: The Next 40 Years

  1. 1. Cloud Storage: The Next 40 Years Frank Berry IT Brand Pulse 1
  2. 2. AI, OPaaS? 2
  3. 3. Network security alert! Changing encryption algorithm. 3
  4. 4. I’ve developed a new method for compressing photos. 4
  5. 5. Cloud Storage Industry Road Map Instrumented Storage is instrumented and accessible anywhere. Storage management tasks performed automatically based on policies. Self-Driving Global storage, server, network & app service chains. Artificial Intelligence allows storage to recognize and respond to complex problems and opportunities. Bionic Billions of data sources shared by governments and businesses. Neural networks and deep learning allows storage admin avatars to develop capabilities on their own. HYPERSCALESEVERYONE ELSE 5
  6. 6. 2016 – 2026 Data 6
  7. 7. Gen Z KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 (Post-Millennials, iGeneration, Founders Generation, Plurals, Homeland Generation) 7
  8. 8. Image Apps Usage Continues to Rise KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 8
  9. 9. Video Views Growing KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 9
  10. 10. Video Evolution Accelerating KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 10
  11. 11. 8K Ultra HD (9TB/hour) 11
  12. 12. 3D ( 3 streams of 2K, 4K or 8K) 12
  13. 13. VR (n streams of 2k, 4k or 8k) 13
  14. 14. VR (n streams of 2k, 4k or 8k) 14
  15. 15. VR Shopping: eBay & Myer in Australia 15
  16. 16. VR Shopping: Singles Day, Nov. 11 16
  17. 17. VR Shopping: Select an Item 17
  18. 18. VR Shopping: Size the Item 18
  19. 19. VR Shopping: Try Different Colors 19
  20. 20. VR Shopping: Done? Watch a Movie 20
  21. 21. 16,000,000 361,000,000 500,000,000 12,500,000,000 35,000,000,000 75,000,000,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 By 2020, 75 billion devices will be connected. In mature markets, people will have 5- 10 things connected. IoT 3B photos shared per day 21
  22. 22. 22
  23. 23. IP Video cameras that double as access points Temp Sensors Shopper Handheld Scanner Employee Handheld Scanner Asset Tracking Sensor Data Analytics Video Data Analytics Video Management System To App Servers in Data Center Door Sensors Video analytics provide occupancy, dwell time and trip wire by grid coordinates 23
  24. 24. Smart City of 1M = 200 Petabytes/Day 24
  25. 25. 1M Self-Driving Cars = 4,000 Petabytes/Day 25 “In an autonomous car, we have to factor in cameras, radar, sonar, GPS and LIDAR – components as essential to this new way of driving as pistons, rings and engine blocks. Cameras will generate 20-60 MB/s, radar upwards of 10 kB/s, sonar 10-100 kB/s, GPS will run at 50 kB/s, and LIDAR will range between 10-70 MB/s. Run those numbers, and each autonomous vehicle will be generating approximately 4,000 GB – or 4 terabytes – of data a day. Every autonomous car will generate the data equivalent of almost 3,000 people. Extrapolate this further and think about how many cars are on the road. Let's estimate just 1 million autonomous cars worldwide – that means automated driving will be representative of the data of 3 billion people.” - Brian Krzanich , Intel
  26. 26. Data Doubling Every Two Years 26 5,000 Petabytes Per Year in 2020
  27. 27. 2016 – 2026 Media (HDD & SSD) 27
  28. 28. 1 Terabyte HDD vs. SSD 9.6TB SSD $3.83/GB 96TB HDD 67₵/GB 5.7x 28
  29. 29. 163 156 164 168 160 166 177 120 147 157 139 136 136 133 140 142 138 138 147 141 125 111 118 115 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 http://www.anandtech.com/show/10098/market-views-2015-hard-drive-shipments All HDD Shipment TrajectoryMillions 29
  30. 30. $- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Enteprise HDD Revenue Enterprise SSD Revenue Enterprise HDD & SSD Cross Over in 2017 30
  31. 31. 2016 2026 HDD Road Map 31
  32. 32. SSD Road Map 60Terabytes 2016 1Petabyte 2026 32
  33. 33. NVMe (PCIe interface) SSD 33
  34. 34. NVMe Displacing SATA SSD 34
  35. 35. NVMe over Fabrics will Dominate SANs Ethernet (RoCE) Fibre Channel InfiniBand Next GenEthernet (iWARP) 35
  36. 36. Software Defined Storage (CapEx or OpEx) Best for Unstructured Data Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 EMC VNXe 3200 $192,922 $213,468 $242,108 $308,338 $380,010 NetApp E2700 $60,206 $87,838 $144,718 $196,890 $261,622 NEC M110 $83,017 $103,285 $130,975 $178,055 $225,203 Seagate Ultra56 $55,979 $64,493 $87,555 $104,713 $123,774 SUSE Enterprise Storage $70,100 $76,579 $84,825 $96,238 $108,607 $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Source: IT Brand Pulse 5 Year TCO: 250TB growing 25% per year 36
  37. 37. Pivotal time for HDD market. Flash market maturing fast. HDD Flash The hard yards Time to start thinking about the next big thing (Storage Class Memory) Overnight success Everyone Grows 2015 37
  38. 38. The Next Ten Years: Pro Flash PoV 38 ̴60M/Year HDD SSD
  39. 39. The Next Ten Years: Pro HDD PoV 39 ̴60M/Year HDD ̴180M/Year
  40. 40. 2016 – 2026 Selling & Buying (CapEx & OpEx) 40
  41. 41. 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 On Premise Storage (CapEx) On-Premise Storage as a Service (OpEx) Public Cloud Storage as a Service (OpEx) Selling Storage 41
  42. 42. Buying Storage: Private STaaS The Next Best Thing in 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% None of the above Subscribe to off-premise public cloud storage, send our data off-site, and pay for what we use Lease on-premise server, storage and networking capital equipment and keep our data on-site Subscribe to on-premise private cloud storage, keep our data on-site, and pay for what we use Buy on-premise server, storage and networking capital equipment and keep our data on-site If I had to choose one method of acquiring enterprise storage for my organization, I would choose to: 42
  43. 43. Buying Storage: Private STaaS The Next Best Thing in 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Other Public cloud block, file and object storage Private cloud block, file and object storage Traditional enterprise NAS and SAN Which enterprise storage environment will offer best price/performance with many different storage workloads? 43
  44. 44. $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Equipment Not Financed Equipment Financed Equipment Finance Industry Size—Billions of Dollars Financial Innovation a Key Dynamic for Storage in the Future 44 63% of IT financed in 2017
  45. 45. Innovative Financing Helps People Buy Cars Car Prices Length of Lease Monthly Payments % Cars Leased The average new car loan is 64 months and 27.5% of all new car purchases are leases, the highest level of leases since 2006 45
  46. 46. Driving Financial Innovation 46
  47. 47. On Premise-as-a-Service $42,825 MSRP,7-speed automatic transmission, all season tires, daytime running lamps, rains sensor, glass sunroof, power seat and steering column with memory iPod media interface, Sirius satellite radio, Harmon Kardon sound system, heated front seats, 17” spoke wheels, AMG sport line package $1.50 Pay only for the miles you drive Per Mile $0 DUE AT SIGNING 47
  48. 48. On Premise Storage-as-a-Service Off Premise Storage-as-a-Service Game Changer 48
  49. 49. 10 Year Data Center Storage Revenue Forecast 49 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Traditional Enterprise Storage Capex Public Cloud Storage OpEx Private Cloud Storage OpEx 84% 4% 12% 50% 23% 27% On premise and off premise Billions
  50. 50. Financial Innovation Needed to Bridge Vendor Beauracracy and Customer Demand 50 Oracle Credit NETAPP FINANCIAL Hewlett Packard FINANCE Financial Services Financial ServicesFinansal Hizmetler
  51. 51. 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 On Premise Storage (CapEx) On-Premise Storage as a Service (OpEx) Public Cloud Storage as a Service (OpEx) Landscape When OPaaS Takes Off 51
  52. 52. 2016 – 2026 Storage Brands 52
  53. 53. Storage Branding 2016 IngredientsOn Premise Brand 53
  54. 54. Storage Branding 2026 IngredientsCloud Brand 54
  55. 55. Gartner Magic Quadrant: Cloud Storage Belongs here 2014 AT&T #3 2015 HP Out 2016 Oracle In 55
  56. 56. 2016 Cloud & On-Premise Voted by IT Pros Cloud Backup & Archive as a Service AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS Cloud Dedicated Enterprise Servers AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS Cloud Enterprise Class Storage AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS Cloud SSD Storage AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS Cloud Virtual Desktops VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware Cloud Virtual Servers AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS AWS Cloud Unified Communications Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft On-Premise vs. Cloud Backup & Archive EMC & Veeam (tie) AWS EMC EMC AWS AWS On-Premise vs. Cloud Dedicated Enterprise Servers HPE AWS HPE HPE AWS HPE On-Premise vs. Cloud Enterprise Class Storage EMC AWS EMC EMC AWS AWS On-Premise vs. Cloud SSD Storage EMC Pure Storage EMC EMC EMC EMC On-Premise vs. Cloud Virtual Desktops VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware On-Premise vs. Cloud Virtual Servers VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware On Premise vs. Cloud Unified Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco
  57. 57. Zadara Storage 57
  58. 58. eCommerce Consolidation on IaaS 58
  59. 59. eCommerce Brands Will Look Like This 59
  60. 60. Mobile ClientsDC Infrastructure DC IaaS Carriers Media SaaS Tectonic Shifts in IT Brands Self-Driving eCommerce (Retail, Healthcare, Banking) X 60
  61. 61. 2016 – 2026 Storage Technology (Artificial Intelligence) 61
  62. 62. From Mad Scientists to IT for the Masses NASA Spin-Off Technologies Infrared ear thermometers Artificial limbs Solar Cells Freeze drying Scratch-resistant lenses Water purification Portable cordless vacuums Powdered lubricants Space blanket Aircraft anti-icing systems Video enhancing and analysis systems Firefighting equipment OpenStack Software catalog Hyperscale Spin-off Technologies Open APIs top to bottom OCP Servers OCP Storage OCP Switches Software Defined Data Center Software Defined Networking Software Defined Storage Scale-out Storage Scale-out Computing Object Storage NoSQL Databases Hadoop Containers Artificial Intelligence 62
  63. 63. Machine Learning as a Service 63
  64. 64. Augmented Humanity: Integration of digital technologies with human biosystems 64 Direct Neural Interfaces
  65. 65. Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning & Deep Learning 65 Perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages. Take neural networks, make them huge, increase the layers and the neurons, and then run massive amounts of data through the system to train it. Rather than hand-code software routines with a specific set of instructions, use algorithms to parse data, learn from it, and then make a determination or prediction about something in the world.
  66. 66. Noun A computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system. Simulates the behavior of biological neural networks, as in pattern recognition, language processing, and problem solving, with the goal of self-directed information processing. neu·ral net·work 66
  67. 67. Inspired by The Brain What separates the future of computing from the past 67
  68. 68. Neuromorphic Chips 68
  69. 69. Applications for Deep Learning Computer Vision Natural Language Processing Speech/Audio Processing Touch Smell Taste 69
  70. 70. 70
  71. 71. Electronic Nose 71
  72. 72. 72
  73. 73. 73
  74. 74. Conversation 74
  75. 75. Vision 75
  76. 76. Save Energy 76
  77. 77. Diagnose Cancer 77
  78. 78. “Can we do better for human well- being if information is more broadly accessible, where you’re leveraging the mindshare of the entire planet to evolve the models of disease?” Schadt asks. “Absolutely.” This is medicine as math, not guesswork, and every disease—even stage 4 cancer—might one day be druggable. - Wired The Cure for Cancer Is Data—Mountains of Data 78
  79. 79. Voice User & Admin Interfaces KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 Network security alert! Changing encryption algorithm. KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 79
  80. 80. Voice Gaining Search Share KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 80
  81. 81. Person to Machine Voice Interaction Adoption Keys As speech recognition accuracy goes from say 95% to 99%, all of us in the room will go from barely using it today to using it all the time. Most people underestimate the difference between 95% and 99% accuracy – 99% is a game changer... No one wants to wait 10 seconds for a response. Accuracy, followed by latency, are the two key metrics for a production speech system... ANDREW NG, CHIEF SCIENTIST AT BAIDU 81
  82. 82. Machine Speech Recognition @ Human Level for Voice Search in Low Noise Environment KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 82
  83. 83. What I do remember is that Cisneros told the joke in Spanish, and I heard it in English. The demo’s still early: it only worked in one of my ears, and the joke’s punchline didn’t come through for a really awkward five seconds or so. But it felt like the beginning of something big. - Wired 83
  84. 84. Self Driving Cars KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 84
  85. 85. A Metric for Success: Miles Driven KPCB INTERNET TRENDS 2016 85
  86. 86. Self-Driving StorageDescriptionExample Time Frame L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 No Automation Function-Specific Automation Combined Function Automation Limited Self-Driving Automation Full Self-Driving Automation Admin in complete and sole control of primary storage controls (media, volume management, backup, replication, dedup, compression) at all times. Automation of one or more primary storage control functions, but no combination of systems working in unison Automation of at least two primary storage control systems working in unison Admin able to cede full control of all performance and HA critical functions under certain conditions. Admin is expected to be available for occasional control, but with sufficiently comfortable transition time Self-driving storage can perform all performance and HA-critical driving and monitoring functions 24x7, 365 days a year Since enterprise-class storage invented - 1960s Virtualization (RAID) Automated backup Storage monitoring HSM Storage migration QoS AWS, Google, Azure Service Chains Artificial Intelligence ITBP – Self Driving Storage System Classifications 1990s - Today 2000s - Today 2010s - Today 2020s 86
  87. 87. A Metric for Success: Admins Per Server 20,000 Servers per Admin Hyperscale Enterprise 500 Servers per Admin Servers are fully instrumented and integrated with analytics and automated server management software Best-in-class VMware environments 87
  88. 88. “In playing StarCraft, the AI system will have to come up with real-time strategies for choosing one of the three distinct races at the beginning of the game; choosing when and how to farm minerals and gas; deciding when and which buildings and units to construct; and scouting unseen areas of the map and remembering that navigational information over the course of the game. An AI engine would therefore have to make use of the skills of memory, mapping, long- term planning, and adapting to changes in plans using information that is continually being gathered, which translates to hierarchical planning and reinforcement learning.” Blizzard and DeepMind have created an open test environment within the StarCraft II game for artificial intelligence researchers to use worldwide. 88
  89. 89. “In deploying enterprise STaaS, the AI system will have to come up with real-time strategies for choosing one of the three distinct platforms (public, on-premises or hybrid) at the beginning; choosing where, when and how to implement service levels; deciding where, when and which storage media to deploy; and scouting unseen areas of the application environment and remembering that navigational information over the course of the service agreement. The Zadara AI engine would therefore have to make use of the skills of memory, mapping, long-term planning, and adapting to changes in plans using information that is continually being gathered, which translates to hierarchical planning and reinforcement learning.” Zadara Enterprise Storage-as-a-Service 2026 89
  90. 90. Goal-Based AI VPSA VPSA VPSA 90
  91. 91. 91
  92. 92. 2026 - 2056 92
  93. 93. ElectricityPower Medicine Pulleys Levers Engines Lighting Telephone Television Computing Artificial Intelligence 93
  94. 94. 7 million BC (last common ancestor) 1960 1980 2016 2056 Evolution of Storage Technology 2500 BC Written Mainframe Client-Server Cloud Bionic 94
  95. 95. Anatomy of a Software Defined Data Center Facility Circulatory system Servers Nervous system 95
  96. 96. Dendrites pick up signals from other Neurons Axons (white matter) are long nerve fiber that conduct information from the cell body in the form of an electrical impulse The Cell Body is the neuron’s powerhouse, responsible for generating energy and synthesizing proteins Axonal terminals are end points of an axon’s branches, where electrical impulses are discharged; releasing neurotransmitters to other cells’ dendrites 100 Billion Neurons (Servers) in Each of Our Brains Source: National Geographic, The New Science of the Brain 10,000 synapses per neuron 100 trillion to 1 quadrillion connections 96
  97. 97. Densely Packed (in the Data Center) 100 Microns 10 Microns 3 Microns DendritesCell Bodies Dendrites Axons Dendrites Axons Source: National Geographic, The New Science of the Brain97
  98. 98. Massive Parallel Processing Before Output Many receptors Many transmitters 98
  99. 99. A helmet of sensors at the Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging – part of a brain scanner requiring almost as much power as a nuclear submarine. Antennas pick up signals which computers convert into brain maps (see next slide). Source: National Geographic, The New Science of the Brain99
  100. 100. The brain’s many regions are connected by 100,000 miles of fibers called white matter—enough to circle the Earth four times. Images like this reveal the specific pathways underlying cognitive functions. The pink and orange bundles transmit signals critical for language. 100,000 Miles of Network Cable Source: National Geographic, The New Science of the Brain100
  101. 101. 1 Billion Terabytes of Storage 450,000 terabytes (.45 exabyte) Storage capacity needed to produce mouse brain image 1.3 billion terabytes (1,300 exabytes) Storage capacity needed to produce human brain image Source: National Geographic, The New Science of the Brain Almost 3x data to be produced in 2020 101
  102. 102. 20 Watts of Power Ceiling fan 24 watts CFL light bulb 18 watts Desktop & Monitor (in sleep mode) 1-20 watts Nintendo Wii 18 watts Human Brain 20 watts 102
  103. 103. Server Configured Like a Human Brain 1.3 Billion Terabytes of Storage 10,000 Network Ports 100,000 Miles of Cabling Included >100 PetaFLOPS Processing Power 20W Power 77 Cubic Inches 19” Wide x 1.75” (1U) High x 2.3” Deep 3.3 Pounds 103
  104. 104. World’s Most Powerful Supercomputer Sunway TaihuLight 93 Petaflops 40,000 Nodes 10M Cores 1.3PB Memory 15MW Power 2,250ft2 Floor Space 104
  105. 105. >100 Petaflops Needed to Simulate 1 Mouse Brain Sunway TaihuLight World’s Most Powerful Supercomputer GigaFlops TeraFlOPS (1012) PetaFlOPS (1015) ExaFlOPS (1018) ZettaFlOPS (1021) YottaFlOPS (1024) 105
  106. 106. SW and HW vision, hearing, language, etc., receptors High bandwidth, low- latency networks Scale-out servers SW and HW vision, hearing, language, etc., transmitters We’ve just started Source: National Geographic, The New Science of the Brain106
  107. 107. SW Instrumentation: Open APIs Up in Cloud Platforms Nova Neutron Cinder Swift RESTful Horizon AWS 107
  108. 108. CommonOperations Business-specific Applications Business-specific Services, Web Frontends Connectivity CloudFoundation CommonSecurity Business-specific Applications Field Devices - Gateways, building servers, bridges, ‘modules’ Apps - mobile apps for control, commissioning, offline (non-cloud) connected Services - Cloud- based software services, application back- ends Apps - Mobile apps, web apps, desktop apps for cloud- connected experiences Applications Data & Analytics Connectivity Business Support Common UI Applications Business-specific Data, Algorithms, Workflows, Dashboards Data & Analytics IoT Device Management Domain & Application Services PlatformScope BusinessScope SW Instrumentation: Open APIs Down to Light Bulbs 108
  109. 109. HW Instrumentation: Networking FPGAs generate and consume their own networking packets independent of the hosts, Every FPGA in the datacenter can reach every other one (at a scale of hundreds of thousands) in a small number of microseconds, without any intervening software. FPGA resources are an independent computer in the datacenter, at the same scale as the servers, that physically shares the network wires with software. Appliance Server CPU FPGA (NIC) Microsoft Project Catapult 109
  110. 110. HW Instrumentation: Graphics Processing 110
  111. 111. Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) 111 “Move arm”“Move cursor”
  112. 112. 112
  113. 113. Bionic Brain “People with spinal cord injuries can’t move because the brain and body no longer communicate. Scientists hope to restore motion with a mechanical skeleton controlled by the wearer’s thoughts. It’s a daunting challenge: Hundreds of sensors must be implanted in the brain to send commands to the exoskeleton. Signals must also travel in reverse, from touch sensors telling the brain where the body is in space.” 113
  114. 114. Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 114 Avatar Project Milestones Avatar D 2040- 2045 A hologram-like avatar Avatar C 2030- 2035 An avatar with an artificial brain in which a human personality is transferred at the end of one’s life Avatar B 2020- 2025 An avatar in which a human brain in transplanted at the end of one’s life Avatar A 2010- 2020 A robotic copy of a human body remotely controlled via BCI
  115. 115. Brain to Brain Interface (B2B) 115
  116. 116. 116
  117. 117. 117
  118. 118. Can we do that? Yes NoAbsolutely 118 $$
  119. 119. Thank-You frank.berry@itbrandpulse.com 119
  120. 120. Deep Learning Basics 120

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