Managing European Security in a Globalized World: What is Its Future?

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On 16 October 2012, the ISN and Center for Security Studies hosted a presentation and discussion session with Ambassador Fred Tanner, Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP). Ambassador Tanner discussed Europe’s current security architecture and whether it is capable of safeguarding Europe’s interests in a world of shifting power balances and an American military pivot towards Asia.

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  • Managing European Security in a Globalized World: What is Its Future?

    1. 1. Managing European Security in a Globalised World: What Future?16 October 2012Ambassador Dr Fred TannerDirector, Geneva Centre for Security Policy ● ●
    2. 2. Outline 1. Geneva Centre for Security Policy 2. Europe in the World 3. Europes Security Environment 4. Europe needs to be “secure, united and democratic” 5. Europes Future – 3 Scenarios 6. European Security Institutions - Major Challenges AheadNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 2
    3. 3. Geneva Centre for Security Policy• Foundation with international membership (to date 44 member states and the Canton of Geneva)• Founded 1995 as Swiss contribution to PfP• Training: Assisting current and future leaders to translate knowledge into action • 3 Principal Courses (ITC, ETC, NISC), 40 short courses/year • Academic Year 2011/2012: 791 participants from 112 nations• Research and dialogue in the field of peace and international security• Recognised platform for public discussions• Intercultural dialogue and building bridgesNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 3
    4. 4. Europe in the WorldNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 4
    5. 5. Marginalisation of Europe • Power shifts from Atlantic to Pacific • Europe used to be the focus of world attention during the Cold War • “ Rise of the rest” (emerging powers such as China) • Europe is facing recession and sovereign debt crisesNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 5
    6. 6. Economic Growth Rates Source: Data from World Bank and IMF, April 2012November 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 6
    7. 7. Europe’s DebtsNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 7
    8. 8. Youth Unemploymment ’ Source: ILO Report “Global Employment Trends for Youth 2012”, May 2012November 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 8
    9. 9. Source: IISS Report “The Military Balance 2012”, March 2012November 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 9
    10. 10. Military spending is concentrated in North America, Europe, and increasingly, Asia ● ●
    11. 11. World Military Expenditure ● ●
    12. 12. Europe’s Security EnvironmentEurope is embedded in a dynamic and complexglobal environment characterized by:• Emergence of new powerful states and power shifts inthe international structure• Europe’ s role as a “civilian power”• Diversification of the spectrum of international actorswith a rise of non-state actors• Major technological advancements (including laserweapons, UVAs, cyberwarfare, social media)November 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 12
    13. 13. European Threat AssessmentPotential threat % of people who consider it to be seriousProliferation of Nuclear Weapons 70Al-Qaeda type Terrorism 72Global Climate Change 55Financial „Meltdown“ 51Resource Scarcity 49Cultural / Religious Conflicts 43Overpopulation and Migration 33 Source: Gallup poll „Europeans on Global Security“, December 2010 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 13
    14. 14. The main concerns for Europeancitizens (Eurobarometer 2012) ● ●
    15. 15. Europe needs to be “secure, united anddemocratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012) • Conflicts in Europe’s neighbourhood (e.g. between Turkey and Syria) • Cuts in military spending due to economic crisis (since 2008 Greece: 26%, Spain 18%, Italy 16%) • Crisis of multilaterism (G 20, 4 European countries, plus EU) • Relations with Russia • Need to transform and demilitarise strategic relations between the US/NATO and RussiaNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 15
    16. 16. Europe needs to be “secure, united anddemocratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012) • Growing “enlargement fatigue” (countries preparing to join the EU: BiH, Croatia, FYRM, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Iceland and Turkey; 2004 with ten new member states largest enlargement so far) • Continuous euroscepticism (falling trust in EU institutions, image problems) • Territorial issues still not settled (Europe’s “frozen conflicts”) November 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 16
    17. 17. Europe’s “Frozen Conflicts” • Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia re-escalated in 2008 • Division of Cyprus has been frozen since more than 40 years • Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno- Karabakh territory • Kosovo and Serbia over Kosovo’s independence • Moldova over Transnistria breakaway region • Catalonia, ScotlandNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 17
    18. 18. Europe needs to be “secure, united anddemocratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012) • EU played a very important role for the promotion of democracy after the Cold War (especially through enlargements, but also in trade relations) • Democratisation not linear, danger of regression • Continuous efforts include, the EU’s “Eastern Partnership” to enhance relations and promote democracy in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine • EU’s engagement with the Arab transition countries November 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 18
    19. 19. Europe’s Future – Scenarios (1) C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg Europe’s fragmentation and failure • No implosion, but slow decline, economic depression in Europe and globally • Departure of Greece from Eurozone, eventually collapse of Eurozone • EU still exists but recession, more as customs union and less as single market • Return of trade barriers • Re-nationalisation of Europe: Germany seeks export markets in AsiaNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 19
    20. 20. Europe’s Future – Scenarios (2) C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg Further integration (Federal big bang) • Marginalisation can only be avoided by creating a strong union, fiscal union, federal taxation goes with political and constitutional unity • EU would emerge as a powerful actor on the global stage • “Federalise” as few powers as possible (Germany) vs. Europeanisation of debt (Italy) – role of the UK? • NATO as future umbrella of European defence • Europe without UK, future candidates loose perspective of short or mid-term membershipNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 20
    21. 21. Europe’s Future - Scenarios (3) C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg “Reculer pour mieux sauter”, muddling through, “drifting” (Heisbourg) • Crisis management, no time for strategy • Eurozone saved, some doses of federalism (European Stability Mechanism), anti-European sentiment will radicalise and grow among the younger generations hard hit by unemploymentNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 21
    22. 22. 4 September 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 22
    23. 23. European Security Institutions: Major Challenges Ahead ● www.gcsp.ch ●
    24. 24. NATO: Preparing for the “Eurodämmerung”•Major cuts of defence budgets across the board•Fair sharing of burdens of common security•NATO: A “service provider” instead of a “securitycommunity”?•Alliance coherence-“Collective defenders” vs.“Expeditionaries”•US future commitment to Europe – about to pivot?•Smart defence : limits of pooling and sharing … The way forward lies not in spending more but in spending better“ A.F. Rasmussen, FA 20114 September 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 24
    25. 25. Wild cards • Russia • Missile defence, Post-Soviet space, energy strategy, nuclear weapons • Turkey • Emerging power • Fixation on US rather than EU • “Hot spots” (Iran, Syria, Sahel, South Asia, Korea) could draw Europe (NATO) into a conflictNovember 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 25
    26. 26. Reports and Projects • Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2012: Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative (EASI). • Francois Heisbourg 2012: In the Shadow of the Euro Crisis, Survival, 54(4), 25-32. • Constanze Stelzenmüller 2012: Europe on its Own. How the Crisis-Ridden Continent will Respond to a Decade of U.S. Retrenchment: Three Scenarios, The Euro-Future Project, Paper Series, June 2012. • IISS, The International Institute for Strategic Studies 2012: Strategic Survey 2012: The Annual Review of World Affairs, Routledge.November 19, 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 26
    27. 27. 4 September 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 27

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